So It's Back To First Principles

Hi @khunter,

Did you get around to verify this data yet?

I get the feeling that we are more or less synchronized?

I would like to start woring on the newest simulation version 6.

Sorry for pushing… :smile:

Guy to left back of Nicol eyes him suspiciously. Like he knows he is lying. Long before I knew that was Nicol, I felt Nicol was lying and the guy back of him made it more clear. I’d have to back and find your names photo but these are things that bug me and I cannot get them out of my head. Doesn’t prove anything but body language matters. I can’t do all the gun logistics or the timing stuff, etc. that you guys are doing. But when something bugs me, I keep looking.

I think we still don’t know who that guy is. He’s probably with Beaver ESU, so maybe we can track him down. Maybe I can try to do that on my next investigation shift.

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This must be the slide you’re referring to. If you could track down the two unknowns @brian60221, that would be great.

Edit: I believe al 5 Beaver County ESU present at the rally have been confirmed. Graphic updated.

As for Nicol, here is the true measure of his incompetence, which goes along with my slide calling him out on his lies.

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Yes that is it. Still unknown guy, huh?

Yes, and here is the list we have to choose from, based on a List of Beaver County Salaries that @brian60221 provided.

However, I don’t think the unknowns were even at the rally. According to the Communications List Beaver County ESU only had 5 people there, and we already have 5 accounted for. I updated my graphic in the post above.

image

See Update

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Hello Roger

I did a lot of work on it last night but did not have the time to put anything together before I had to go to bed. I will get a detailed response to you in the next few hours - before I go to bed at least. I have only just come back from work. I am on UK time also.

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There is NO way to calculate the snik-report difference without KNOWING the mic-bullet distance. Basic physics.

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You mean no way to calculate the average velocity without knowing the mic-bullet distance, yes? Well, I’m not good at physics equations, but the approach used on cells V2 and V3 result in the exact same Velocity values as the formula from your Desmos calculator when the bullet-mic distances are zeroed on cells T2 and T3… And it wasn’t me, I just asked AI for an approach, so I thought of adding both to the spreadsheet, just in case we would like to compare the approaches. When I asked which one is best suited for the task at hand, which is filtering data rows to get bullet candidates, it actually told me to forget about the mic-bullet distances unless I absolutely knew them, like you said, and that the best way would be to use the approach on V2 and V3. Anyway, they’re both there… so which cartridges are your top 5 likely candidates?

Let me give you an example. The train went from A town to B town with constant velocity 80, but it can go back slower, only with velocity 60. What is the average velocity? (The average of two velocities is 70, but it is not the average velocity.)

As I remember: v=1/(1/v1+1/v2)
but maybe 2/…

Our problem is the following: we need a lot of small distances, equaly small length.

v = 1/∑(1/v)

Please someone check.

Using a snik-report of 220ms, a distance from muzzle-to-mic of 454 ft, mic-to-ear of 1.07 ft, and speed of sound 1152 fps, the average velocity must be very close (within a couple of fps, say ±5 fps) to 2622 fps.

Whatever rounds are in that range are the only possibilities. And they must be in that range coming out of Crooks’ gun barrel length, which I believe is 16"? Many of the sample ballistics you gave were shot out of 20" and 24" barrels which significantly affect velocities.

I don’t understand all the notations in your chart and many of your numbers are unfamiliar, and I have no idea what you mean by “-x%”.

Bottom line: The only possibilities are cartridges that produce an average bullet velocity between 2617 and 2627 fps at 454 ft.

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If you go on site it’s maybe worth to make a stop at Martin’s Pizzeria (next to King Cones Castle - the ice cream shop that most likely captured Crooks going ontop of the roof by their surveillance camera) and check if this guy is working there. He was in the crowd west of AGR6.

Martin’s Pizzeria - Google Maps



image

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@brian60221 @sorey @prayingpatriot

I forgot to look at the second page of the Detail Plan Communications List and saw one more Beaver County ESU listed, so they had 6 total at the rally. (I couldn’t let it rest and just had to start digging. :nerd_face:) Since Nicol’s wife isn’t technically ESU, she’s a Medic and Deputy Coroner, that leaves 6 of the 8 in the ABC interview photo as being those ESU members. Young doesn’t count. The 2 unknowns are most likely co-workers of Priolo’s at the Beaver Valley Regional Police Department. I believe I have the top left “Unkown” as Derek Shipley, and the other is one of two officers on that police force. I have yet to tie either of those names to a face. Shipley is found in many of the BVRPD’s news stories.

What do you think?

image

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in case no one saw this yet. @cmartenson

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Hmm, I’m not sure what this document is. Isn’t it just edited with someone’s guesses?

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Probably 16’', based on photogrammetric measurement by vt1. And @howdoiknowthisinfo has an officially looking photograph of (probably) that gun in conjunction with an inch rule here, but as usual without a reference to the source.

Crawford fits for the 17:55 and 17:59 entries, but I had those as “S” based on the text message. If it is the real deal, it confirms Priolo was where I thought he was, and Roger “Patrick” Young must have been there with him.

Body was left overnight on the roof.

SOP (I have been informed_ to removed weapon from suspect once physical contact is made.

Casing count delivered out loud on multiple bodycams from Beaver County officers on the roof in the minutes right after Crooks dies.

The van was never a part of the shooting. Here on the forum others have posted TikTok videos from a local Butler resident explaining that the van was unrelated to the shooting.

Well, I see a Denny Crawford associated with Penn Township, but somehow this person never had a reason to be in my notes before.

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