So It's Back To First Principles

[chris-nolan]

@redranamber

Indeed, the absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence, but I feel without the evidence to verify it or at least support it in some way, reason demonstrating why this would likely not be his course of actions, and actual video evidence of a nearby point in time where he did in fact exit the door in question, the scenario where he went down the stairs and then across multiple buildings to door 9 first relies heavily on the A word we don’t want to use.

Again, I’ve always said door 13 is more likely. But…

Nichol moving across the building IS supported in some way by the AAR. Beaver County ESU reported (presumably after talking to Nichol) that he moved across the building before the shooting (at 6.:12 in the AAR timeline) and met a uniformed patrol. I don’t want to a***** this is incorrect when it hasn’t been proven to be. I understand the AAR is not very reliable in general.

I’ve always agreed it would not likely be his course of actions.

There is video evidence of him opening the door in question after the shooting but it has not been proven that this is what the AAR is referring to. Can you prove he didn’t open it twice? Why would they list that second event from after the shooting on the slide and put the time as before the shooting and describe it as him meeting a uniformed patrol?

I am not the one making a positive claim like VP is (“The Door 13 Event”… was there one?). He has to prove it. I don’t. I only have to chip holes in a theory that is not proven. If I was saying Nichol opened door 9 with as much certainty as VP says it was door 13 you would be right about the A word.

@redranamber

It relies too heavily on “maybe” this, or “might have been” that. Maybe the door wouldn’t open, and he needed to find another way out.

Again this would be valid if I was using these maybes to say it WAS door 9. I am not. I am simply saying what might have been, and nobody seems to have been able to rule it out, which is what I have been pushing for.

@redranamber

He doesn’t mention a struggle to find a way out or any impediments.

Absence of evidence again… and I only need to establish that something is possible. It can be highly improbable yet still possible. And considering it has not been proven that it was door 13, there are probably other objections that we haven’t thought of (this is an assumption, something which is not inherently wrong to make).

@redranamber

He bounded down the stairs and pushed open a door.

You don’t know for sure that there is nothing in between those 2 events, though I have agreed the language suggests there wasn’t.

@redranamber

He didn’t bound down the stairs, encounter a locked door, try to find another way out only to have it “blocked” somehow, and then have to renavigate to some odd door on the other side of multiple buildings. I feel like this is overcomplicating things in order to a***** door 9 is somehow possible or even reasonable.

I even prefaced the locked door theory by saying it might be ridiculous. Point is that it is not impossible, if Nichol did indeed go to open door 13. Door 9 is not some odd door, it seems like the main door he and others were most familiar with, and it’s somewhat in the direction he last saw Crooks running.

Your last sentence there is key. Door 9 IS possible. Are you really saying that it is impossible? This is a question I have been trying to get VP to answer. I wouldn’t say I am overcomplicating things. Just trying to show that door 9 is possible and door 13 is not proven. I should say again, because I feel this is always ignored - I think door 13 is more likely. I am talking about proof and possibility. If VP simply argued door 13 is more likely I would not be here arguing this. He has said he is careful to word things in that way (likely, probably, etc…), but he is not careful here. He states it as fact. That’s my objection.

@redranamber

I believe it highly unlikely for whatever route he would have had to door 8 to be blocked, or even for door 13 to not open for that matter.

Highly unlikely. No problems from me there. Not impossible.