cool. I will use these speeds in my model.
what ballistic coefficient would you suggest?
thanks for your feedback.
The Hornady 22 Cal .224 55 gr V-MAX® is .255 (G1) for the lower end
at around 3000-3250 fps
The Sierra Bullets .224 dia. 77 gr. HPBT MatchKing is .372
at around 2750-2850 fps
That will give you some number to play with.
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if you count the number of horizontal ribs from the muzzle to the end of the barrel and the end of the stock you can caluculate the length of the barrel based on the size of the roof and the distance between these horizontal ribs…
an image of the rifle at a different angle would this calculation easier…
hello Roger,
in order to avoid that you accuse me of not coming back to your comments, I will give you a detailed reply.
Sgt Raven can add pedantic to the list he keeps too 
(I am using the term pedantic in the context used by compilers of programming languages that support the --pedantic flag such that they give elaborate feedback, nothing else is implied with this term!)
I showed you several times google earth lines of sight from the high buildind behind the building where the man was shot dead where these lines of sight had end points starting with the real shooter at about 9m above the ground from the ground of that building and 3.12m above the ground where the JCB lift was hit.
each time, you came back with the claim that somebody who shot from that building would have had to shoot almost horizontally and through several buildings in between because the shot had to be (in your opinion) almost horizontally:
in this quote you clearly use only the heights of Trump’s ear and the height of the corner of the bleachers, neglecting that their heights are measured from different ground floor levels (ground level at Trump’s ear position is 409.87m, estimated height of Trump’s ear 2.99m above ground level and ground level at the corner of the right bleacher is 408.99m, estimated height 3.1m above ground level)
Trump’s ear is at elevation 412.86, and the
corner of the bleacher at 412.09m, and the impact
height of the JCB lift is at 411.82m.
this is a clearly downhill line, and it is totally consistent with a shooter from the building I have been mentioning over and over…
still you backtrace this data to a horizontal line based on the height of Trump’s ear and the height of the corner of the right bleacher…
this is why I immediately told you that your heights offsets were wrong, and as I was not yet totally aware of how your system worked, I asked you for the height of that high building, because I thought (now I know better) that you were testing what I said: I claimed that somebody was shooting from the roof of that high building, and if you ended up with a horizontal line, that would have implied that the roof wat at Trump’s ear level, which led me to believe that the roof height in your system was off…
you never really answered my request regarding the height of that building. it was only many days later that I figured out from one of the building schemes you posted that the building had a reasonable height (still too high compared to my model, but that would even have enforced my claim that the real shooter was using that top roof, but soit).
so, the bottom line is that you are
- using heights as reference
- neglecting the ground levels, and these vary greatly over the whole area
- if you look at the elevation of the different shooter options, Trump’s ear, the corner of the right bleacher and the impact on the JCB hydraulic lift, you would come to a correct conclusion
- missing the point as you do not take the elevations of the different actors into consideration
in order to make my reply not too long (given that this is only the first point), I will come back to your other points next.
I would appreciate it if you reacted in a non-hostile and non-offensive manner.
everybody makes mistakes, and no model is perfect, we correct these and move on.
the only intention I have is to make your and my model better.
I am not emotionally attached to any of the systems and any of the models and any of the hypothesis or claims made by whoever, including myself.
I only care (Sgt Raven can add naieve and apathic to the list) about correctness and transparency, because that is the only way we can find out what happened.
the problem with this approach is that bullets do not travel in a straight line, where you assume they do.
if you look at it in the vertical space, you will see something like this:
the forces in play in this is atmospheric pressure, temperature, gravity, electrostatic attraction, muzzle angle, muzzle velocity, wind turbulence, air humidity, etc
but if you look straight down, the bullet trajectory also makes a curve. in order to reach the target you have to “shoot against the wind direction” to compensate for the wind deflection of the bullet (slides shameless(hint for Sgt Raven 
)ly stolen from Deflection Greater velocity = more deflection. WIND DEFLECTION OF BULLET Point of bullet strike with NO wind. Point of bullet strike with wind. - ppt download):
the second part I emphasized is that you believe that your calculations represent and even match reality, where it is far more complicated than that…
hence how I came to the model I am using:
- initially, I eyeballed where the shots could have come from, and as soon as you have established that area,
- then you can look at locations that would enable a professional sniper to do these things
- then you start lowering down the standards and see what a professional shooter, amateur shooter and a novice would have to do to get the job done
- then you match everything with the observed reality from original/primary sources that have been obtained as close in time as possible
- I reject every eye witness report, witness report and analysis and statement from whoever that is not backed up or that is not consistent with primary references
about the two points of reference you swear by, namely Trump’s ear and the corner of the right bleacher, these are not accurate to guestimate whatsoever!
not even the exact position of the impact of the JCB hydraulic lift that I am using in my model!
the further reference points are from each other, the better candidates they are to guestimate lines of sight, and the corner of the right bleacher is simply not an accurate point to refer to… that is not opinion, that is fact:
- nobody knows where exactly the bullet struck on that railing. we only have the puffy cloud, but that is not enough to determine whether it was a hit, a graze, a penetration, etc, etc.
- we do know that the 1st bullet moved along end hit the JCB hydraulic lift.
I went to a construction site to inspect a very similar JCB hydraulic lift and compare the heights of what I saw in the image where the hydraulic fluid sprayed out, and I checked out the dimensions of the exact tractor that was in front of that lift to come up with the approximate height and coordinates of the point that I use as the end point of the first bullet’s trajectory.
this means that the trajectory of the bullet:
- started at the muzzle of the shooter (whichever this was),
- he shot against the wind direction (thus not straight at Trump or the corner of the right bleacher or the hydraulics of the JCB lift)
- grazed along Trump’s ear while the bullet traveled in a downwards slope coming from an angle that was totally different from the angle the shooter shot at
- hit the railing, and this may have deflected the bullet’s path. as I have shown in my previous posts (I do not know whether you read these, as you reported two days ago that you ignored most of my information), it is highly likely that this deviation is very minor, as a sniper bullet (which I think has been used) penetrates 10 sheets of 16 gauge solid steel sheets (total of 1.6 inches = 4 cm of solid steel) without any vertical or horizontal deviation, and the bleachers were made of galvanized steel, which is much less than these 10 sheets
- and ended up in the JCB hydraulics…
so, both in the horizontal and vertical plane, the bullet makes kind of a parabolic arc…
however, a line of sight is, a very good predictor to determine whether one can hit something or not: if you can see it, you can hit it, but it takes skill and the right hardware (gun and ammunition) to get it.
it is certainly true that I have not seen most of the information that has been posted on this forum!
it really does not matter who put the most effort in finding out ground levels. if they are wrong, insufficient efforts were invested.
I just had a look at the kml file you submitted, and you are using 45 points to define your polygon… that is ok, but how many reference points do you use for the elevation of each of the relevant buildings (e.g., where the snipers were located), the podium, bleachers, hydraulic lifts (not only the one I use as end point reference for the 1st bullet, witnesses, tents, etc, etc)…
I never have seen your model, but I am extremely sure you do not use the appropriate elevation for each of the points of interest!
furthermore, you always refer to whole units of feet.
where relevant, I use centimeters.
1 ft a bit more than 30 cm.
whole ft is a very inaccurate way of measuring!
small deviations in cm make smaller deviations at larger distances, but if you start with af ft off, you get way out of target…
as I explained in an earlier post today, in the kml file I shared two days ago, you can find a section “horizontal planes” which visualize the terrain elevation levels at centimeter level…
have a look at
I would really appreciate it if you could confirm that you do not use the appropriate elevation levels at the points we discussed earlier!
so, what you confirm is that Trump is 30 centimeters higher than the corner of the bleachers…
google earth (and google earth pro) round things up or down starting from .5, which gives 30 cm of error margin for your height of Trump and your height of the corner of the bleachers above or below x.5, as x.5 ft would become (x+1) ft (e.g., 28.5 ft would be shown as 29 ft) and (x+1.4999) ft would also be shown as x ft (e.g., 29.4999 ft would also be shown as 29 ft)…
this makes huge differences…
you assume that you know the exact height of Trump in inches (1 inch is 2.56 cm), but when you research this topic (as I have done)), you will find out that the exact height of Trump is not officially known…
his medical record and a couple of other reports mention 3 different heights for Trump…
you should also realize that there are so many factors that influence the actual height of the exact location where Trump’s ear was grazed, but you swear by your value and everyone who says something that does not match your calculations is labelled a moron (humble paraphrasing )
given my feedback on your previous points, it should be clear by now that, even if one would know the exact location of each of these points of interest, and the exact wind speed, and the exact bullets and gun powder and rifles, etc, etc, it is still impossible to exactly backtrace where the bullet came from…
I think the audio evidence is a solid piece and always a starting point.
From position 2 in Chris’ analysis, (echos) and sound seems to prove two shooters / locations.
the other unanswered question is the abandonment of sniper’s post at overwatch -AGR. That is fishy.
Having served “at Post” in military, professionals would NEVER leave their post. On a fireteam in security we had a “BRAVO” man that always stayed at post as “final denial”. to violate that order under any circumstances would be grounds for court marshal.
There are many holes in the narrative to warrant closer look. like JFK, the official explanation leaves too many unanswered questions.
Best Regards,
k
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given all of the above, I think it is not necessary to repeat myself on this point…
the location of the JCB lift can be determined much more precisely than the location of the corner of that bleacher…
and still, you dig your heels in the sand and stick to your opinion.
that is exactly the problem in this discussion: you do not even consider that there may be a better approach to analyse this case…
if someone brings up a valid remark on my model, I am happy to consider it and will take it into account for next iterations. no harm done, mistakes are made, corrections applied, and we move on.
you do not seem to even consider that there might be some unknowns or accuracies in your approach…
that is an attitude that guarantees failure…
this point has been dealt with in detail with my previous remarks…
you should really apply a unit with more precision than ft, because that results in hugely different trajectories, certainly because your two points of reference are so close to each other…
as I pointed out above, Trump’s ear has a total elevation of 412.86m and the corner of the bleacher is at 412.09m, which is 77cm, about 2.5 ft difference and you are using a 1 foot difference…
need I say anything more about the inaccuracy of your model?
and note that I deduce all these facts based on simple reasoning, because I have never seen your 3D CAD system…
I truly fear the inaccuracies that will come to light if this 3D CAD system is ever put under scrutiny…
hereby, I rest my case and hope you will consider several of the points I raised and that you apply the necessary corrections to your model!
exactly.
I only base my model on audio/video evidence, and the closer to the event the recording was published (and downloaded by myself), the better…
now we hear that RealDjDave’s phone was confiscated by the fast buriers of information and he got his phone back only a couple of days later…
a couple of days ago, I saw a report of drone sightings during the rally that “were flying so fast” that a clear photo could not be captured, but “they” were lucky enough to have captured a couple of frames in their video in which “military style drones” could be spotted…
that is very fishy…
I do not know whether the 4 other phones were also fbi’zed, but this is very fishy indeed!
about the JFK assassination: if you look at the videos of that event you will see that the secret service pulls back from the car 15-20 seconds before the shots were fired…
these attacks are carefully planned and orchestrated.
the AGR site and the terrain of the Butler Farm Show where this event took place is so unique that they could stage the attack:
- the bleachers and podium were positioned at the exact location such that there were 2 locations from which someone would have a perfect line of sight so that the real shooter could get away with it and have the man on the other position pay the prize/price
- the snipers on the barns behind Trump would NOT have a direct line of sight to the position of the real shooter, and only 2 of these 4 snipers had a direct line of sight on the man who would pay the prize/price…
- there were no eyes in the sky by means of drones, helicopters, CCTV or guards at an elevation BECAUSE they would have spotted the real shooter immediately
- and there is so much resistance to even consider another option than the option that the man who died did the real deed…
we live in a very strange world where it is extremely dangerous to figure out what really happened…
(Sgt Raven may consider adding self-confident to his list or start a 2nd column )
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Sound is one piece of the puzzle.
Having audio from different locations is Great! The sound at T mic would indicate how many projectiles came to that point. Initial analysis was more than the 8.
using the same rifle or round would insure similar report.
Multiple enemy snipers would try to coordinate the fire close together. The first shot being most accurate. use of objects around the rifle would redirect sound and confuse return fire.
The actions of patsy “crooks” ensured he would get attention and receive return fire. (he was soooo exposed).
Actual assassin(s) position(s) would be concealed.
I was trained open iron sites, modern sighting equipment, makes first shot hit nearly guaranteed. (over confidence?)
JFK was moving, so multiple snipers used. T was static…or was supposed to be.
There is NO question the real would be assassin could escape mayhem. Especially with uniform or other identification. (JFK)
It would not surprise me if the actual sniper is in the video(s) milling around.
Best Regards,
k
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absolutely true, and by now that man is most likely dead.
if we want to know who shot at Trump the professional snipers of various types (mercenaries, military, police and law enforcement…) should look around for one of their colleagues who went missing since about a month…
the man who died on that roof died there so that the real sniper could get away from the scene, and as happened with all the other president shooters, they got killed shortly after their deed…
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maybe best not to “off” your reliable hitmen, bad for business.
Regards,
K
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Trump’s body posture and head angle at time of shock wave impact has not been adequately studied imho. In a slow replay, he was looking straight at the large monitor to his right momentarily. Most importantly he was looking slightly behind his back, in reference to the fixed podium and stage. Because the ear lobe is so close to the skull, a linkage to bullet trajectory is possible.
In the lower right of photo note the position of Trump’s shoulder blades rotated right; and then note head position, rotated further right in reference to the shoulders. The dotted line, drawn through the center of the large monitor, shows a possible trajectory in alignment with the “safe” path to ear, avoiding any contact with the skull.
Reading through several weeks of comments, some amazing analysis appears. But questions remain. I was intrigued by the title of this post “Back to First Principles”. The inductive research method (as opposed to deductive) involves collecting and analyzing data without preconceived categories or theories I’m not questioning any of the analysis on the various boards. But I raise an observation not fully considered yet
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How do you know it is actually 556? 223 is a much more common purchase. In many stores you have to go out of your way to find 556 on the shelf.
I posted in the other thread 4 different rounds fired from my 16" barrel. 556 had an average 3035fps. 223 had an average of 2914. Commercial reload had an average 2905. barrel longer than 16" will have higher velocity. The barrel of the rifle on the roof does look longer than 16".
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OK, so 6 Inches for 167 yards. Does everybody agree?
How about the strong wind on that day, shall we say 2 Inches in the horizontal direction for the same shot?
Why don’t you stop following me around. Take me off your following list.
Sorry intolerance for disagreeing with you but looking at the body cam video from a totally different angle, these are not reflections from the sun, it is evident that the lights are coming from inside. Both, Stewards video and the body cam confirm it. Here are some screen shots from the body cam video each taken from different windows. I measured the hight and it would correspond with the position of a night vision device in top position.
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