Sorry, my mistake.
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I think PhiPhi is assuming that the first bullet hit Trump’s ear.
Based on this, he seems to have tried to calculate the change in the subsequent shots.
So theoretically it might actually be possible to determine not only the distance of the projectiles to the microphone, but also the direction.
Strictly speaking, however, there is no proof that Trump’s ear was hit.
I imagine we could get all the time differences needed by using all the various recordings. He’s using the average from all the results he could get from the various recordings. I’m guessing each shot could have a different number of results to average from. But I’d love to hear Phiphi’s response.
How do you know Copenhaver was hit by shot 3? I know it sort of appears that way, and NBC played that footage when talking about the shots, but maybe both shots that hit him actually came in the second volley?
I think that without an accurate 3D model, it is impossible to calculate whether the first 3 projectiles were fired from Crooks or from the rear two-story building.
That’s why it would be very important for Gary Melton to finally publish his 3D data in raw form.
I don’t know.
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Explanations from ChatGPT seem correct to me.
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I look only to the variations of tdiff for the different shots and, for example, if there is 4 ms difference, I compute how many meters deviation lead to such a time difference.
I have made the hypothesis that speed bullet is constant and it’s the weak part of my simulation. But the variations are always decreasing for the recordings on the west of Trump and increasing for the one at east of Trump.
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Yes that’s it.
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That’s false, the sonic booms are present on NTD record, “don’t run” record, a video near the stage and an other very near to the red carpet leading to the podium.
The sonic boom of the 6th shot cannot be heard on the stage recording because the projectile hit Comperatore and therefore did not fly past the microphone
That’s true.
I think that your results must be wrong, because they are based on 5 recordings, although the sonic booms can only be heard on 2 recordings and you have found a result for shot 6, although its sonic boom cannot be heard at all on the stage recording.
For shot 6 I have used only 4 recordings.
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It’s eastward because tdiff decrease for the recordings on the west of Trump and increase for the one on the east.
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What number do these videos have in the dropbox?
Please link or upload them if they are not there.
Nearstage: https://raw.barf.bz/sorey/all%20shots_video%20taken%20very%20close%20to%20the%20stage.mp4
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How far away was this microphone from the trajectory?
Isn’t that much too far away to pick up the original sonic boom?
According to Mike Bell, the bullet must fly close to the microphone.
This is the first time I’ve seen this video.
How far away was this microphone from the trajectory?
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How do you compute that? How do you work out what the distance is for 4ms for example?
Do you know if rifles usually shoot bullets at different speeds? If so, is it much different? Your simulation is obviously still useful either way.
I’ve never seen that video @daniel59 highlighted either. Nice find.
I find it very surprising that such a video has only now appeared after more than 4 months.
Really strange.
@sorey uploaded it on September 21.
Maybe more will turn up.
Assuming the first shot hit Trump’s ear?
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I have asked Ken Silva if he can use the right-to-know law to force the release of the soundtrack of the bodycam recording BWC2-122111.
According to him, this should have happened within the first 60 days.
If the first 3 shots were fired from the rear two-storey building, this should have been audible on this soundtrack.
Detail from this bodycam shot.
Is it normal or appropriate to give a thumbs up in this situation?
About 5 m from the trajectory of bullet 1.
Not at all, look at the audio recording, you have sonic booms at 27.579 s, 28.435 s, 29.112 s, 31.894 s, 32.146 s, 32.338 s, 32.513 s and 32.664 s for the first 8 shots.
About 5.5 m from bullet 1 trajectory.
Mike Bell does not hear a sonic boom on the TMX recording. The distance between the TMX recording device and the flight path is approximately 16 meters.
In the ‘don’t run’ recording, the distance is much greater.
In addition, in this recording the bullet reaches the stage microphone first, which means that the sonic boom is emitted by the loudspeakers.
I can agree with that
That might also work.
The sonic boom of the sixth shot should only be heard on the Dave Stewart recording.
That’s why I still can’t understand how you can calculate how far away his trajectory should have been from other trajectories based on audio recordings.
If the prerequisite for your calculations is the assumption that the first shot hit Trump, you might be able to disprove the 2nd-shooter hypothesis, but not the kayfabe hypothesis.
You still haven’t answered that.
In the kayfabe hypothesis, the shot could not have been fired past Crooks, but perhaps over him.
Then there would be no lateral shift.
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I have some Excel sheets full of formulas to compute tdiff relative to TOA and locations of the different recordings. I can modify parameters to shift the trajectory meter by meter to east or west and see how much ms shift I have on tdiff.
There are variations from one bullet to another but quite small especially if these bullets come from the same batch which seems to be the case since Crooks is supposed to have bought a batch of 50 cartridges the same day.
For example, for the podium recording, to go from a tdiff of 222 ms for shot 1 to 212 ms for shot 3 the barrel exit velocity would have to go from 2750 ft/s to 2600 ft/s which seems too high but I am not a firearms specialist.
In addition the variations are always in the same direction whereas if they were variations of the cartridges it should be random in one direction or another.
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Yes indeed but it’s a good start!
Good is not always enough.
And basically, your results are nothing more than your personal opinion as long as you have not published the raw data and the calculation method used.