So It's Back To First Principles

I’ve made contact with the nurse who treated her at the rally. She hasn’t decided if she wants to talk with me. I’m hoping to run it all down but I’m currently in a hold pattern.

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interesting!
would you happen to know her approximate location?

His reaction to turning to his right like that puzzles me. Maybe he’s disoriented from getting dinged, but it just seems peculiar. I get the impression he’s like WTF to someone he knows over there, or he thinks the shot that hit him came from that direction.

The rifle stock is puzzling as well.

@cmartenson says the mics pick up the 10th shot from the south. Without the recordings and echoes, the entire investigation would be simpler from a speculative perception. Maybe should work it backward by trying to solve it first and then layer in the recordings and echoes to see if they fit.

No, but I’ve emailed her a map of the stage and bleachers asking for her position (along with many other questions).

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Very true. Not to mention reloads. Just finished an ammo data spreadsheet I’ve been working on since last night. I went through manufacturer’s websites and got data for .223 and 5.56. Some sell in boxes of 50, some in boxes of 20 rounds, but I believe we should consider all the available cartridges, even if the news info we have is that Crooks bought 50 rounds on J13.

Maybe @sonjax6, @kincses-zsolt , @greg_n , @vt1, @offtheback, @bigtim and others working on the sound and math might be interested on the manufacturer velocity data, to match it to sound, so we could somehow narrow down on the most likely ammo candidates/configurations, so we don’t have to plot a ridiculous ammount of alternatives. (personally, if I had to pick some likely candidates, I would be willing to bet the most likely ones will have at least 62 grains).

Obs: some of Hornady’s data was measured by them from testing with a DPMS 16" AR rifle.

The spreadsheet can be found here on this link.

196 cartridges, 22 brands, 20 bullet weights
Muzzle v: 2201-3800 / BC: 0.11 - 0.403
39 sold in boxes of 50. 9 sold in boxes of 50 AND between 62-77 grains

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what an amazing coincidence that Paul from Legally Armed America questions what happened on that roof too: https://youtu.be/adCN1Hg9JF4?t=623

this is a helicopter photo showing the dead crooks, the rifle a good distance from the body and without an obvious blood trail.

the grainyness of the image may obfuscate the blood trail a bit, and I will be looking for additional footage similar to this, but there are a couple of very remarkable things to be noted:

  • why is the body alone?
  • who moved that rifle?
  • if that rifle was not moved, then who moved the body?
  • when did the blood start flowing down that roof lane?
  • it is clear that someone was up that roof before the bodycam people with the medic arrived

I do not want to get conspiratorially, but it is clear that the chain of custody of the evidence and crime scene has not been preserved properly, which opens the possibility that, e.g.,

  • the shell casings have been planted on that roof (remember that the big chief of the fast buriers of information referred to cartridges in his testimony and not to casings or brass or something similar)
  • the remote control and even the range finder may have been planted by whoever moved the body or the gun!

my two cents…

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What should we do?

There are velocities at distance [0, 100, 200, 300] and maybe we should calculate at 150 yards?

You need to consider the time that the helicopter footage was taken, which is believed to be a few hours after the shooting. This is supported by evidence that his body was removed from the roof the following morning.

yes, I am doing this…

I am iterating muzzle velocities from 2600-3500, calibers including those mentioned in the table of @daniloraf and various ballistic coefficients for the various ranges 100-500, stepping 10 yards, using the wind speed and atmospheric conditions of that time.

I am structuring it in a table… will post it here in a couple of hours…

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that seems very unlikely, given the ambient temperature and the speed of the fast buriers of information…

are you sure the body remained on that roof unattended in this position for over half a day?

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Any evidence or photo he had a range finder?

(A military expert here asked: qui prodest, qui bono?)

only allegations…

the explosives in “his car” and the range finder, remote control and the shell casings on the roof are all allegations…

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Aside from the testimony from Nicol who spotted him using it, I believe there is the following evidence:

  1. Any FBI statements regarding it. I haven’t searched all of the reports for mention of it specifically.
  2. Rooftop bodycam footage that I believe someone suggests it was in his pocket when they searched it.
  3. Screenshots of him walking onto the AGR property (Jon Maliss dashcam) shows a rectangular bulge in his right cargo pants pocket. (I have confirmed.)
    4 Screenshots of him walking in vendor alley (ironcladusa cell phone) shows a rectangular bulge in his right cargo pants pocket. (I have confirmed.)

yes, but that is all circumstantial evidence, he…
I do not believe any single letter from any of the fast buriers of information…
and the rectangular bulge can as easily have been a packet of cigarettes or chewing gum, deck of cards, notebook, etc…

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Pretty big pack of cigarettes, gum, playing cards, etc. Did you see the photos I added? I classify those photos as likely corroborating evidence for Nicol’s testimony, not as standalone evidence.

I did just search through all of the FBI statements and they only reference SWAT’s testimony of him being sighted using it.

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For starters, rather than view some YouTube content creator’s cherry-picked image, who has very poor investigative sense, I prefer to go directly to the source for my information. Here is the Sky News video. See for yourself.

Trump shooting: Gunman identified as video shows body and rifle on roof | US News | Sky News

Now you see the blood trail…

Now you don’t.

It’s just a matter of the angle it’s being filmed from.

Added: As for the body remaining on the roof, @sorey addressed that along with the video in this post.

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Where exactly he did use that range finder? We don’t even know the place.

I’m glad you asked. In order to do a more thorough analysis of the evidence related to Crooks’ activities on the AGR property before he got on the roof, I had to deduce from the evidence where the most likely spot Crooks would have used the rangefinder from.

When the police arrived on the roof, they evidently moved the rifle away from the body and emptied his pockets. Photographed on the roof were a cell phone and a remote control transmitter (but no rangefinder!). The photo of the transmitter matches either of the following models (1 km or 5 km range):

The dimensions of both of these models are listed as 5.3 x 1.7 x 1.0 inches. On the other hand, the “bulge” in the pocket of the living Crooks looks to be considerably larger (perhaps the size of a small rangefinder?).

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Thanks for clarifying that for me. After using it on AGR grounds, he most likely put it back in his car when he went to get his backpack and rifle, unless it was in his backpack on the roof. He did have a second backpack in his trunk, per the evidence photo.