Special Report: Trump's Shocking 20% Hormuz Toll and Russia's Destroyed Refineries

Scouting Reports Public Scouting Reports
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Originally published at: https://peakprosperity.com/special-report-trumps-shocking-20-hormuz-toll-and-russias-destroyed-refineries/

I decided to take part of Monday’s Fat Pipe report and turn it into a public video. People really need know what’s actually happening right now. It’s not good.

Let’s begin with the steady and devastating Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure.

Last night (7/12), a huge explosion destroyed Russia’s Mykhailivska oil depot:

Additional footage of Russia’s Mykhailivska oil depot in Stavropol Krai suffering a catastrophic explosion after a Ukrainian drone strike last night. pic.twitter.com/Eplt2D8Mqx

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 13, 2026

Just the day prior, the Syzran Oil Refinery in Russia was heavily bombarded, suffering extensive damage:

🔥 Syzran Oil Refinery in Russia this morning following Ukrainian drone strikes. pic.twitter.com/5W8heH3enN

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) July 12, 2026

And the attacks on Russian ships in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov have continued:

Ukrainian attack drones are swarming the Black/Azov Sea again tonight, hitting over a dozen vessels per the SBS's live tracker. Ukrainian forces likely have hit over 100 Russian vessels this month. pic.twitter.com/4Zh1DjtDwc

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 13, 2026

A very good article in the WSJ showed just how extensive the Ukrainian attacks have become.

(Source – WSJ$)

Refineries all across Russia, one roughly 1,500 miles from Ukraine, have been quite successfully targeted.

Further, we note the suspicious timing of when those Ukrainian attacks ramped up; right as the US/Israel war against Iran kicked off.

If I wanted to create a global energy emergency, this is how I’d go about it. Knock out the Strait of Hormuz, and clobber Russia. The old one-two punch. Suddenly, the world is starved for energy (and a bit later on, food)

What compelling objective is at stake that we’d risk a thermonuclear war? Because that’s what these two bits of data convey to me.

But, here’s what seems all but certain. Diesel prices are about to skyrocket, and that could easily kick off a major economic crisis across the world. Especially in the deeply indebted US economy.

Five days ago, Russia announced it was banning diesel exports, reducing the world’s supply of exported diesel by ~ 1 million barrels/day (Mb/d).

Now, for the days between July 1-10, global diesel exports are down ~ 1.5 Mb/d.

Accordingly, the diesel crack spreads have blown out to the upside, with a barrel of diesel now trading for more than 100% of the price of a barrel of oil ($83.69 vs $74).

Unless Trump ends the war, and immediately or suspends the export of diesel from the US, domestic diesel prices are about to explode higher.

But that’s not even the shocking part. This is the shocking part. Trump just announced on his TruthSocial feed this morning that he’s planning to charge a massive 20% transit tax on ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz.

That would immediately at 20% to the price of a barrel of oil, something the oil markets suddenly woke up to with a nearly 10% gain at the time of this writing.

Equity markets are none too happy with that news either, and given the fact that they are priced to perfection, Trump is playing with fire here.

Stay tuned…it’s all going to get a lot bumpier from here.

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The obvious weakness of the west is its near total lack of preparedness for nuclear war. With the west, the proponents of war are using its technological advantage over Russia, and apparently attempting to render Russia economically defenseless, what justification do you suppose is Putin offering to Russian hawks to avoid use of nuclear weapons as the only remaining advantage for Russia?

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Albert Einstein summed it up best: “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.”

And some dare say that humans are a clever creature, Ha!!!

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That sky-high diesel crack spread is very likely an early warning flag for the “find out” phase of our “fooling around” process is about to begin. How early? Again I suspect all the tricks will be played to keep consumer inflation under control – both in gasoline pump prices and for diesel-delivered consumer items – until after the midterm elections. Then, to paraphrase Louis XV, “after that, the flood.”

As bad as it is, let’s just hope the SPR looting is not interrupted by a nuclear war.

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The consensus amongst the podcaster’s guests believe that nuclear war will be inevitable. If the trend continues with the West inflicting damage on Russia, the Russian hardliners will push Putin out and they will take over and at that point it’s game on.

Martin Armstrong believes that all these wars breaking out is a reaction to the sovereign debt crisis taking place in Europe. They need a distraction to keep their citizens from realizing what really is going on.

It was much like Henry Ford who said that if people truly understood how our banking system worked, their would be a revolution the next day. “It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”

Dr Paul Craig Roberts warned that if Putin did not use overwhelming force in the beginning of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, then we would witness the West inflicting damage on Russia with a thousand cuts. Putin chose to work with the West and the US, not realizing he was being played. Sergey Lavrov has now figured it out. It could be too late as Europe is begging for an all out confrontation with Russia.

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My perspective is that failing to prepare for nuclear war today is an astounding form of psychological denial and irresponsibility. Just sayin’.

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Agreed as the thought nuclear weapons being used are now being downplayed by the power structure. Nuclear weapons are for the most part referred to as “tactical nukes”.

I seriously doubt anyone wants to see a tactical nuke go off in a major city. Because when it does, there will definitely be a response.

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I think Putin’s strategy is to avoid peak escalation, the west can win that war, and could have won that war in Ukraine if Russia had not strategically retreated to a defendable line. the attrition war is one Russia will win, if it can avoid a peaking conflict. The west needs a quicker war to win, but that narrative needs a false flag or successful baiting to accomplish it. Spinning it out, is the attrition path, provocation is to get a hot conflict underway before the west’s ammunition runs out.

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I got a text today asking for my opinion on Israel and I gave it. I usually ignore those things, but this time I was happy to participate.

It was not a series of questions, they just wanted you to put it in your own words, so it seems these responses are being reviewed by AI. Then I guess, the AI gives the general results. It was refreshing to say exactly what I wanted to and I got a polite goodbye at the end.

I realize it may be a data collection thing, good, put me on a list, I don’t care, I’m happy to defend the victims of their war crimes.

Has anyone else gotten this? They did not tell me who they were, they only gave the name “Sarah.”

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Russia was very successful at shooting down drones all last year. Did the west figure out a new way to beat them?

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This is good. Would Russia use nukes, or just turn low earth orbit into a satellite graveyard.

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Scotter Ritter, this is good.

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The Duran boys talk about, manufacturing a global energy crisis.

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Hey Hurricane. I always like to consider an opposite theory.

Do you think there could be a chance they are trying to blow everything up before the mid terms? Maybe to ensure they do not occur??

Philip

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What would Russia ever gain by launching nuclear bonbs and missles that it couldn’t get by more conventional means? By soft power? The same goes for China. Nuclear missles and bombs are an unforgiveable atrocity. However, a proxy army racing across a country on motor bikes, collecting local ethnic and religious minorities into town squares and chopping their heads off - why, that is a time honored Western tradition! Quite effective at establishing a puppet government and reversing economic development.

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Something that I found hilarious back when I first saw it two years back.

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Russia’s most powerful hypersonic missile, the RS-28 Sarmat, colloquially dubbed Satan II, can deliver 10 warheads to the US. It carries enough fuel to travel from Russia southward, to come at the US from our weaker southern border. It travels at hypersonic speeds (in excess of Mach 20), and can vary its trajectory in flight. Each of its 10 warheads can be independently tasked, and also travel Mach 20 and above.

I remember that way back Russia said the then-coming Sarmat would be capable of both nuclear and conventional payloads, but conventional thinking is that it would only be loaded with nuclear because the US couldn’t tell ahead of time which was coming and would respond with nukes anyhow. Now that it’s operational, Russia has not declared Sarmat also has non-nuke payloads.

The Oreshnik medium range missile has matured. Version SS-X-27, made operational last year, is capable of delivering non-nuclear payloads or up to 6 hypersonic, maneuverable glide vehicles with non-nuclear payloads to the US homeland if launched from the Russian Arctic zone.

Beyond that, Russia would depend on submarine-launched Zircons, which would also presumably be nuclear tipped, and air launched missiles that could be either conventional or nuclear.

Russian thinking has always been defensive not offensive. Hence it has historically focused on responsive rather than first mover weapons. The Ukraine war has forced some rethinking, and has given the hard liners the room to urge more attention be paid to first strike weaponry, particularly regarding nuclear. They argue that there are a lot of ways for the West to bleed out and throttle Russia and at some point those thousands of cuts also become an existential threat for which Russia needs a doctrine permitting a first strike.

Seems to me that any sane planner designing a direct strike on the US landmass simply has to design a knockout blow. Anything less would assure nuclear response, so better go hard, fast, and lethal if you’re going to go at all. That means multiple Satan IIs coming from all directions at once, releasing dozens of hypersonic glide vehicles with nuclear bombs to blanket the US’s war fighting infrastructure, power and communication grid, and major cities.

Putin is our best friend while we’re being stupidly provocative via the thin veil of proxies. But even he has limits, and he’s looking like he’s getting there. I expect he’d go after European facilities, the response to which by the US is uncertain. He’d put off direct conflict with the US as long as possible.

If he’s ousted, retires, or dies in office, his successor will be much less tolerant and considerably more martial. And the increasingly frustrated Russian people will be increasingly happy for it.

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I don’t think “they” give a rats ass about the mid terms. They control all political power in this country, left - right, Dems, Republicans. It’s all the same theater to distract the masses from the ones pulling the strings.

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Its actually an interesting question. Do “they” want things split for the next two years? We will get different outcomes if the midterms are a catastrophe. Which outcome do “they” prefer, do you think?

They always have more power if the little people are divided and fight - because “no kings” or whatever. In my world, the power "they’ have doesn’t just come from nowhere. Things have to be engineered properly for it to work out.

Remember those 10 shots everyone was supposed to get over in Europe? If “they” were all-powerful, that’s what would have happened.

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I don’t think that this is even remotely likely. A big enough calamity to put a halt to the midterm elections would also be a big enough calamity to put a halt to the perks of being in power – think WWIII levels of calamity. I don’t think anyone in Congress would willingly trade the dinner parties, the hot and cold running staff, the ability to lord it over us common folk, etc. etc., for no elections but life in a bunker.

Now, could they fumble and back into such a disaster? That’s always an outside chance. However, a lot of the DC Swamp is dedicated to keeping their good times rolling. nb: Their not our good times.

At the moment, I think the plans A thru D are:

(A) (optimal) Credibly win this war in time to have prices settle down before the midterms, then float back into office on a happy cloud of Victory and Low Prices. The window for this is fast closing, probably totally shut by early September.

(B) (contingency) Can’t win in time for the midterms, so keep a lid on the economy – print money, pump the SPR, etc. – and campaign on “Don’t switch horses in mid-stream.” (to quote from Wag the Dog) After winning, that lid on the economy may well boil over. But then they’ll also have bought themselves two years to get this situation under control and get the voters settled down before the 2028 elections.

(C) (risky) Provoke some strikes on the US mainland, western Europe, etc., but keep it sub-nuclear. (can’t upset those perks) Run as the patriotic candidate who will lead us to Victory and Low Prices.

(D) (do not want) Life in a bunker, and enjoy the MREs. But hey, they’re still in office!

My money’s on Option B with an outside chance of C, but what do I know? It’s not like I get invited to DC dinner parties.

ps: This just came to my attention: FBI Warns Battlefield Drone Tactics Are Coming Home | Small Wars Journal by Arizona State University File under Option C.

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