We are preparing to elect a new mayor and city council in May here in San Antonio. All three of the major candidates for mayor are expressing their intentions to emphasize growth as a way to keep the San Antonio economy afloat. They are all supported by various developers and big businessmen, touting these supporters as reasons for our voting for them. It’s absolutely nauseating.
Where is the option to vote NO for mayor. That’s what I’m going to be looking for.
Don
I am a newcomer, so my comments may seem naive to many of you, but I’d like to share some thoughts.
First, relative to getting "significant others" on board, the availablility of the Crash Course DVD helped immensely. My spouse and I are watching it together, and I’m sensing that he’s finally beginning to share the concern that I have had for the past several years. I’m hoping that from the concern, we may begin to engage in a new level of cooperative planning for the future.
I share Chris’s growing sense of pessimism about the "stimulus" bill. I wish that Obama had provided some triage-like structure to Congress’ thinking - something to the effect of first, strengthening and even expanding the safety nets for people in economic distress; second, repairing essential infrastructure; and third, projects that would lead to a sustainable future for the US. I don’t see any structure at all except for random bits and pieces of "pork" in the current version of the bill.
My third observation is that I think I’m beginning to understand Washington’s obsession with creating more spending (and, of course, debt) by consumers. If the US consumer doesn’t keep China’s economic engine going, China may decide to get rid of all the the US debt it carries, causing a terminal cliff diving drop of the value of the US dollar.
Thanks for letting me chime in.
Kathy
Hello Scrib:
Spelling is NOT my strong point, my apologies, you’d think as much as I read, I’d be a good speller. The spell checker changed it to a hyphenated word, turns out it isn’t.
To answer your question: Yes, I was being euphemistic, substituting hyperinflation, not just inflation, with redemomination.
I was referring to where countries have had to redenominate or basically destroy the old and print the new. Of course they do this with every Fiat currency after the currency devalues and results in hyperinflation - usually the result of idiots like Greenspan and Bernanke printing money with insanely low interest rates.
Mexico it was done in 1930+/- and 1982, Argentina 2001, I might be off on the years, going from memory, a lot of this stuff I didn’t keep notes on when I read about it before. But, yes I was referring to where they say: Okay, we owe 70 trillion, old dollars. Now every 1,000 old dollars buys one new dollar, so now our total U.S. debt is 70 billion dollars.
Of course our wages go down, but they divide out any existing debt and everyone undergoes somewhat of a Jubilee.
Sorry for being vague, my wife lives in the past and I always look to the horizon.
Take care.
Last night my wife and I read this thread.
I told her I was glad that we are on the same page now and I remember the hell we went through when we weren’t on the same page.
I got one of those "subtle" sounding two word corrections, "Pretty much," that after 18 years of marriage I know same book, different chapters, page 10 vs. page 449.
The page evoked a lot of laughs.
She used to get on me, as CastleLp said, like I was responsible for creating this economic mess all by myeself.
The garden and pig farm comments evoked laughs, laughs like, "Yeah those were better ideas then what I came up with to get him the hell out of here or off the doom and gloom topics."
If it is of any consequence, had I have stuck to the why’s of what she was seeing on the news and in the market instead of the (very blunt, I’m from N.Y.) what will happen when (i.e. tear gas and food shortages) I would have been better off. Of course, back then this wasn’t even officially a recession. Now Nightly News with Brian Williams (the only TV we watch or get) makes me look like Mr. Happy.
Hang in there, I think we will all be on the same page soon, then she can tell me that this was her idea to get all prepared and that I should have gotten more TP and rice.
Pertaining to redenomination…
[quote=Davos] Okay, we owe 70 trillion, old dollars. Now every 1,000 old dollars
buys one new dollar, so now our total U.S. debt is 70 billion dollars.
Of course our wages go down, but they divide out any existing debt and everyone undergoes somewhat of a Jubilee.[/quote]
Hi Davos, I am now a bit confused, if the cost of our present and future obligations were all re-scaled (redenominated) by a factor of 1000, are we not still at the same place? For example - say I owe $100,000 (old dollars) and I save would take me 20 years of work to pay this debt off at 5% interest and ~$650 per month.
Now: One month after I take on this debt everything is redenominated, I will still owe ~$100 (new dollars) and it should still take me 20 years of work paying at $0.65/month. My ‘work load’ stays the same (only the numerical value changes) but it doesn’t ‘feel’ any different (i.e. no jubilee for me).
If, however, inflation jumps to ~10% year - and my salary roughly keeps up - then after 7 years my earnings are ~twice what they were when I took on the debt so it is easier to pay the same $650 per month than it was at the beginning. If I chose, I could increase my monthly payment and pay off the debt earlier. In this scenario - inflation erodes the original debt and the creditor is unhappy since they lost the bet on what the future inflation rate would be. Relative to a redenomination solution, I (the debtor) am better off under this scenario.
The ‘jubilee’ solution would, however, seem to be the ‘best’ for me - but then it is really unclear what is meant by a jubilee (and if that word means the same to everyone).
The Daily Kos article on "Odious debt, Jubilee, and the cost of ignoring history" had a very good take on this subject - but still lacked any substantive examples of how it would be applied in modern times. More importantly (for this discussion) is that it failed to address ‘who’ is the agent that can invoke/impose a Jubilee. With respect to the debt owed First world nations by Third world nations - it makes sense the First World nations are the agents that can ‘forgive’ the debt (if the debtor nation simply default on the debt (stop paying) it hardly seems like it would qualify as a ‘jubilee’ since it will likely be followed by some sort of punishing actions (blockade, financial shunning, military action, take your pick…)
Perhaps no substantive example can be provided (and everyone’s understanding of a Jubilee will vary significantly) because it has not been applied in modern times. I believe that the closest example to the concept of Jubilee in modern times would be application of the Bankruptcy Laws (but the debtor must initiate this action, not the creditor, and it still entails a form of punishment by virtue of a period of restrictions on the level of participation in the economy that will be permitted over a period of 7 years).
(This comment was going to be short and sweet but it got a little out of hand…)
Hi Davos,
Long time no write to you! Hope you are well.Enjoy your posts.
I know folks think this is OT but if you are married/LT relationship and at 24/7 disagreement with triple E, things are not pretty. I’m not going to start a thread on "how to deal with a clueless spouse" but I hope just bringing this up here has been helpful.
For the record, my spouse is very competent at what she does, says it is "refreshing" when we go into 20 degree weather, and is absolutely unconcerned about local or national issues beyond voting liberal Democrat (if that is appropriate concern, LOL.) Also, due to her constitution and sheer will, she would be the last man standing in a disaster situation. If the time comes and the oil truck doesn’t pull up and the big van doesn’t restock the Stop and Shop shelves, she will patiently freeze to death or slowly starve waiting for them, long after I have croaked, screaming, "I knew this was coming."
Tomorrow I am surreptitiously, never a good thing, buying my first gold Eagle at the local coin store. I have had a hard time doing this but will force myself to liquidate some things to buy one periodically, though the buy/sell spread convinces one that TSHTF really has to happen to make it worthwhile. I will also acquire and sneak other stufff in to the basement, though a bunch of freeze-dried food will be hard to hide and spark considerable difficulty. At least my gen X son, who asked my mother if I should be committed last month when I told him I was thinking of getting freeze dried food, listened to me yesterday when I showed him the article about hedge fund managers stocking up on gold, guns, and food (New york Magazine article you can google).
My last and somewhat whimsical comment is that we need to set up a website, tripleespouseswap.com, to help couples re-pair up with doomers or clueless.
GLTA.
SG
Davos, you made me laugh! My husband doens’t want to hear any of this doom and gloom stuff, and I get the occassional "you’re out there" looks and responses. But when big economic new makes the MSM that we all have known was coming for months, and which I had mentioned to him, I hear the "WE’ve known about this for months!"
Ok, I’ll see if I can get him to watch the CC to get him more on the same page. He actually said he would a week or so ago. It’s translating that casual promise into reality that’s my challenge now!
An uninformed opinion:
I am not sure why it would be assumed that any political solution (i.e. the stimulus package, TARP, etc.) to the crisis would be designed to result in fundamental change of the type advocated here. A revolutionary change can be dictated by events, but will not be legislated - it is beyond the power of politicians and the political class to concieve and implement such a change. It took Andrew Jackson 8 years and dogged determination to "break the bank" under rather different circumstances than exist today. Today the financial system is international in scope and consequence, and implementation of a radical change in the US system would require consensus and cooperation between Europe, America, and Asia in order to deal with reserve currency and debt issues.
Radical change could occur if a crisis (real or manufactured for the purpose) provided the opportunity for either a dictated/imposed solution or precipitated an uncontrolled collapse of the current arrangement.
TPTB will try with all tools available to maintain control of the course of events and determine an outcome that maintains their position and power. Military power is one of these tools…
I see the Obama stimulus as an attempt to buy some time for attempts at an international solution to jell - to slow the slide toward a domestic depression that might lead to uncontrolled collapse.
I am not sure it can succeed - even with such a modest objective - as the cycle of layoffs > foreclosures and defaults > reduced consumption and imports > reduced tax receipts and bank failures > more layoffs seems set to continue, perhaps accelerate in the near term. Additionally, the weaked economies abroad will likely continue to throw spanners into the works making planning difficult or immpossible as unforseen consequences and crisis multiply and interact. Eastern Europe is in dire straits, not to mention "rich" countries like the UK.
Radical changes, shifts in dominant powers etc., in the past have tended to be accompnaied by wars…
Interesting times.
Same here - my husband (been married 1 year but my second marriage) isn’t really into the doom and gloom. He just doesn’t want to think about it. Fortunately he could make due is a very bad depression - me - not so much. He was raised in a large family on a farm with cows, sheep, tractors, etc. He can fix anything put in front of him, much like the rest of his family. We live in the middle of a small city (town?). Somehow, our next door neighbor is a doom and gloomer. What are the odds? We were talking about drilling a small well by hand in a way that is legal - for our "garden" and in no way connected to the sewer or any other water line. I was also eyeing his side lot. If we took out our fence between the houses we could have a pretty good sized garden plot. It would be workable with a self drilled well.
Unfortunately it seems we are all waiting to make big ideas into a reality. I’m afraid we are all waiting until it is too late - too late to get equipment, materials, seeds, etc.
Here is some food for thought:
Here in Canada, we had what was known as the "Sponsorship Scandal". Where the Liberal Govt of the day was getting kick backs to money that was sent to Quebec for a program there. My issue is that I believe that it is impossible to keep track of all the spending of this $850 billion porkfest and a certain amount of it will be siphoned by unintended receipients. You folks are getting ripped off from all directions, my condolences.
I have to say I feel so blessed to have a wife who is 100% on side, understands the whole dilemma, and goes out to work to fund, not the pig farm, but the goat farm… though pigs are not out of the question at this stage!
Glenda attended a whole weekend Transition Town workshop which was presented by the instigators of the idea in Totnes, England. She said it was good, but as she altready knew most of what was said, she didn’t actually get that much out of it… that’s how up to speed she is!
Interestingly, she thought they were all really depressed about the appalling state of the British economy… and who could blame them I suppose?
Mike
"How do we get the ladder that we need?"
Cancel all debts, close down the banks.
Mike
"As for me, I feel trapped. I know I need to sell my house and buy some
agricultural land in a small community. And my wife agrees but she
wants to wait 3 years for my son to finish high school."
WE did this too. Fortunately, it was five years ago, and not now. Tell your wife, BIG MISTAKE.
If there’s one thing we wish we’d done, it’s moving out of the big smoke and relocating earlier.
TIME is the essence. In our case, we could have built our new house before the building boom and ramping up of the cost of all the materials I needed… and ‘the farm’ would be established by a further twoyears.
The time to act is NOW. For all you know, the place where you end up might even have a better school…
Email if you like, we can get our wives talking.
Mike
"
Where is the option to vote NO for mayor."
STAND AGAINST THEM! If you can’t do it, enlist someone who can…
Mike
Mike,
while I believe that gold should be priced much higher, your calculation is not reasonable, IMHO. If gold was re-adopted as money, it would only cover the goods and services being traded, not all existing assets. I doubt that $1000T even exists as paper (digital) money (isn’t the M3 of US about $13T?), so why it should be the case with gold? Your calculation would be valid if everybody on Earth was trying to sell everything for gold at the same time, which is hopefully not going to happen.
Regards,
Jiri
I’m afraid we do what we can. Hell will freeze over before my wife views the CC.
I have started a "survival tools and gadgets" thread, something I am more interested in (oops!) and better qualified to discuss than economics. Please drop by and post.
SG
Okay - time for me to jump in and "pile" on the whole spousal support thingie.
Cat233 (Mrs. Dogs In A Pile) and I have been very deep into personal investing and trading for 7 years. It is a team game - and it has to be. Confidence in the market (the ability to trade it, not "in" it) is 50%, 49% is discipline and 1% is for the math purists out there to figure out. Confidence is well served when the "other" spouse is on board. Even though Cat does all of the trading, I understand everything she does (in the market that is - sexist or not, I do not understand what is in a woman’s brain much less her purse or the shoe closet… standing by for incoming fire…). Being knowledgeable of what she/we are doing is a big help. That way I can stand there with a dumb look on my face when she smacks a trade out of the ballpark that I didn’t see charting up and still get credit for understanding it.
Like the DIA puts last week - who buys puts when the market is up 200+ points??? Mrs. Dogs does - at the market close, when they are freakin’ cheap. And then the market drops 310 points over the next two days. Cha Ching!! Let’s go buy some stuff!!!
Cat - if you read this I need some optics for my Bushmaster M4 
I was a bit of an effort to get on board with Chris M’s material. There are still some issues that I don’t agree with - mostly arguing in the margin level stuff - but I can’t stop talking about the material now. Fortunately, three people in the office are CM CC grads and we talk about it quite often. One young Lieutenant (she is 4 years older than our daughter - see the Survey thread for where Mrs. Dogs was trying to sell her <a href=/comment/14439#comment-14439" rel=“nofollow”>https://peakprosperity.com/comment/14439#comment-14439) took the DVD home and watched it with her husband. She came in the next day and said her husband had one question for me "Was this supposed to scare the shit out of me?" And now they are thinking and planning as best fits their personal situation. There are also several people who don’t come to the office much anymore because they don’t buy the "doom and gloom" (their words) over reality (what it is). My nickname is "Dark Cloud" (I prefer Dark Star, but that is another topic for the Grateful Dead forum.)
Now the only disagreement is where we are going to set up the compound. I want to go to Colorado’s Front Range near Nederland/Boulder. Arable land, lots of it, wildlife, katabatic winds to run windmill(s), over 240 days of sun per year for solar power and greenhouses and a snow melt you can count on to replenish the aquifer. Not to mention 300 meter unobstructed lines of fire for self defense.
She wants to go south where it’s warm.
On a sort of serious note - Here’s my $.02 worth of advice to those who are "alone" in their efforts. Keep at it and find some like minded people to stay in touch with. Foster relationships with those people and eventually the circle will get smaller and you can then get together. The hard part is doing that alone or with minimal spousal support. If by some small miracle, TSHTF scenario doesn’t come to pass it is likely that you will be much better off as a result of what you did to get ready for it. And if TSHTF does come to pass, you will be ready for it. Just don’t say "I told you so."
After 7 years of trying without success to get my family to take the investment seminars we did and to watch Crash Course, I have all but given up. One of the things that we learned in the seminars was that our dogged pursuit of elimination of debt, growing of personal wealth AND the ability to have a positive impact on the lives of others would likely cause us to lose friends and/or alienate family. That was just the investment seminars - all we get now when we talk about CM and CC is eye rolls.
The good news is, we have a great circle of new friends who took the seminars with us and are frequent visitors to this site. We get together and talk about what is going on and we are at the point now where we are doing some serious preliminary planning on how we want to set up a cooperative community. That took seven years - so don’t get frustrated if you are only a year or two into your efforts.
Well, after reading this thread to my GF she is watching CC as we speak. She is getting upset though and probably won’t make it past ch.3. Well I tried.
Castle -
Keep at it. The old "Death by a thousand duck bites" approach does work.
Hello DrBarbour:
You wrote:
"Hi Davos, I am now a bit confused, if the cost of our present and future obligations were all re-scaled (redenominated) by a factor of 1000, are we not still at the same place? For example - say I owe $100,000 (old dollars) and I save would take me 20 years of work to pay this debt off at 5% interest and ~$650 per month.I think I'd have to calculate, and I have been meaning to do this for sometime now, what a piece of gold could have been purchased for pre Zimbabwe hyperinflation and what it could be sold for now. I'll do the same for Mexico and Argentina before and after the redenomination. Once I do this exercise I think I can answer your question with more than just a seat of the pants reply. Take care,Now: One month after I take on this debt everything is redenominated, I will still owe ~$100 (new dollars) and it should still take me 20 years of work paying at $0.65/month. My 'work load' stays the same (only the numerical value changes) but it doesn't 'feel' any different (i.e. no jubilee for me).
If, however, inflation jumps to ~10% year - and my salary roughly keeps up - then after 7 years my earnings are ~twice what they were when I took on the debt so it is easier to pay the same $650 per month than it was at the beginning. If I chose, I could increase my monthly payment and pay off the debt earlier. In this scenario - inflation erodes the original debt and the creditor is unhappy since they lost the bet on what the future inflation rate would be. Relative to a redenomination solution, I (the debtor) am better off under this scenario."