Straight Talk with James Howard Kunstler: "The World is Going to Get Rounder and Bigger Again"

[quote=ao]

ao,

Yeah, you’re quite right. Dmitry Orlov grew to the age of 12 half a world away, but then he emigrated with his family to the United States in 1974. With 36 years of first hand experience of America, he gained a BS in Computer Engineering and an MA in Applied Linguistics. Quoting from Wikipedia, “he was an eyewitness to the collapse of the soviet Union over several extended visits to his Russian homeland between the late 1980s and mid-1990s.”

“In 2005 and 2006 he wrote a number of articles comparing the collapse-preparedness of the US and the Soviet Union published on small Peak Oil related sites. His article “Closing the ‘Collapse Gap’: the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US” was very popular at EnergyBulletin.Net.”

To Continue: -

Also worthy of note : -

cluborlov.com

Russia Today Interview With Orlov

Max Keiser Interview With Dmitry Orlov

Video: Dmitry Orlov - Siezing the Mid-Collapse Moment

I love America. I would describe it as a place where people outside of it have more of a clue to its inner workings than the people who live within it, but that’s just my point of view. I mean, on a prayer note, little Mikey comes in handy, but show me a reef of links promoting anything positive over $128 Trillion in debts and oil importation factored at 6 out of every ten barrels used. Give me a bright majoritive consensus study on how clued up your average American, or for that matter UK citizen at this time, and I’ll wear a badge with your name on with pride!

Let me be blunt. Your average American or Brit ain’t writing on this forum for sure. On a comical note, here’s a recent Australian comedy take on their idea of your average American. Cruel isn’t it? But if it isn’t the average you’ve set in your own mind, they sure will make aspiring quick and dramatic change a slow slow process.

Lets stop guestimating. The facts are in. The Hirsch Report was written in 2005. What I’ve seen done with it so far is nothing much. I won’t be holding my breath for Chris Martenson’s 2014 Peak Oil scenario as a positive outcome any time soon, and that’s assured …

~ VF ~

Nickbert,

Glenn Beck is a fictional character built as a platform for corporate means. A schill. A vacuum. An empty carcass. An animated cadaver, morphed into a human form. His two lower ribs are removed to perform heights to a task mere mortal man cannot reach. No contest then on dirty journalism there. That ain't classical dirty journalism. Comparing Kunstler to that would need such a wide brush, only provocation would cause such a connection, take this thread on a journey of strikingly different means, and boil it down to a sticky indigestible gloop only a corporate monster could stomach. Wheeling Beck up to the plate won't run to mini castors, but something that launches shipping, so I'll leave that formed stupidity to fester on 'that' locked thread, thank you very much.

 

~ VF ~

Oh nooo!!! Not Glenn Beck again…run away! Run away!!!
Though, I’ve caught a few recent clips of Glenn Beck on YouTube where he’s been heavily critical of QE2 and did a great job of explaining it to real people. I see him talking more about economic collapse and telling people to be “prepared.” Sarah Palin has also blasted Bernanke on QE2. So are they corporate shills? Hmm. I don’t know…

The difference is that Beck criticizes an elite, the small group of “progressives” he claims are trying to take over the country, but he does not insult the average American. JHK criticizes half of America (if not more). Beck, corporate shill or no, has at one time had 4 books on the New York Times bestseller list…JHK? Not so much.

I guess it could be argued that Americans are, indeed, “idiots” who need things watered down for them…or maybe the messenger needs to figure out a better way to communicate the message. Part of that is to not be so condescending and insulting.

At any rate, with Beck talking QE2, collapse, and preparation, I’ll be laughing my rear end off if it turns out that he is the one who makes discussion of peak oil mainstream. Would not surprise me one bit.

 

 

 

soulsurfersteph-
+1

Yeah, I wish there had been a better right-leaning example for comparison than He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named.  But I’ll take more care in uttering his name in the future, lest I inadvertently wake ancient Cthulhu and bring in ten thousand years of darkness 

Oh nooo!!!! Not Glenn Beck again...run away! Run away!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92gP2J0CUjc

Glenn Beck = Killer Bunny… who knew?

  • Nickbert

Nick,
+128 Trillion !!!

… and a Monty toast to Corporate Indulgence …

Paul

 

I’ve just completed reading all 84 posts.  We are all adults here.  We all have different beliefs.  But we agree on the big picture.
If this commmunity wants to reach others with the Crash Course concepts, we have to stop ailenating others.  The reason I subscribe to this site is simple because I haven’t figured out Chris Martenson’s politics or religious believes.  By keeping the message apolitical, his efforts reach a much wider audience.  Isn’t that this communities goal?

Nate

Steph,
I can side-step one of your posts, but as has been proven, never two in a row …

Paul Gallico once wrote : - “No one can be as calculatedly rude as the British, which amazes Americans, who do not understand studied insult and can only offer abuse as a substitute” -

… maybe that’s where we sit???

Have you ever heard of Timothy Ferris? He wrote a book called - The 4-Hour Workweek: Escape 9 - 5, Live Anywhere, and Join the New Rich.  He used some pretty clever marketing to get himself on the New York Times book list that you can read about here, using blogosphere tactic.

In his own words : -

Fact is, it’s a bloody awful book, pretty comparable in awfulness to “He Who’s Name Must Not Be Mentioned” <a href=/comment/91659#comment-91659" rel=“nofollow”>(one of which I recently reviewed) that has hit the number one slot of the New York Times book list five times using several trend based marketing tools, lately including a 3 million viewer a night daytime base that suffocates and stultifies originality and talent by throwing copious amounts of money at marketing. “Copious”, as in his marketing fund used honourably could more likely fund and support seventeen third world countries combined.

Amazing then, that such notables as - Norman Mailer, Ernest Hemingway, John Steinbeck, Vladimir Nabokov, J. D. Sallinger, Saul Bellow, John Updike, Frederick Forsyth, Kurt VonnegutGraham Greene, Gore Vidal, John le CarréJoseph Heller, and Umberto Eco - all rub shoulder’s in the New York Times number one book list with “He Who’s Name Must Not Be Mentioned”.

Timothy above, explains exactly how!!!

Sad to say, the gap between Nietzsche and the present average majoritive inhabitants of planet earth, is far far greater than the present average majoritive inhabitants of planet earth, and knuckle to tarmac scraping Neanderthal man.

Also sad to say, comparing “He Who’s Name Must Not Be Mentioned” and Chris Martenson would result with the self same outcome as James Howard Kunstler and “He Who’s Name Must Not Be Mentioned”. Though with Chris now backed with the best of Yahoo, no doubt such immersive and structured marketing employed above is having the right effect on this forum of late …

Condescending and Insulting? If you read me with your tongue planted firmly in your cheek, you’ll get the joke, and wryly laugh along with me at this celestial comedy called humanity …

Love,

~ VF ~

Thanks to Nate for bringing it back around.  This is Levin’s wife.  I don’t usually weigh in on any of these discussions.  I have read “The Long Emergency,”  “World Made by Hand,” and “The Witch of Hebron” and consider that each book has it’s areas of distinct value.  While we have the great gift (for the moment) of free speech in this country, the devolution of these comments, in response to the JHK interview, causes me to wonder how people will respond when things really start to get dicey.  I do not have the tendency to become enslaved by the last book/article I read.  I take what I need and leave the rest.  I understand that when you have more than one person in a room, you will have different points of view, and certainly debate can be a healthy and intellectually expansive endeavor.  I suppose we currently have the luxury of intellectual arguments, provocative assertions and flat-out insults.  But, that luxury will not last, and it might be more constructive if we turned our attentions to what we can do to help ourselves, our families and our fellow human beings in the Long Emergency, Post- Peak World - whatever name you ascribe to that future --where it is likely we will need to focus our energies on much more pressing issues and will require all the civility and cooperation we can muster.

Hey everyone, earlier in this thread, Dr. Martenson said, “Can I just say how proud I am of this community?” And: “What I’m proud of is that people here who were offended or felt unfairly targeted by his words explained themselves in a fully rational, calm, and logical manner.

"Yes, getting here took both time and steady moderating, but here we are, with a community that can be trusted to handle the bumps and vicissitudes calmly and with a hefty dose of constructiveness.  ‘I might not agree, but here’s why and here’s the impact and here’s another way for you to consider.

So thank you for participating, noticing, and helping to create the very safest, most constructive, helpful, and useful place on the web to discuss some of the most difficult material possible and work through this enormous transition and all that it entails.

Let’s keep the dream alive. :wink:

Poet

VF, good marketing points from Tim Ferris, though I think it’s a lot easier to sell a book that purports to tell you how to work a 4-day workweek and still be rich! It’s much more difficult to sell “we’re running out of oil, headed for catastrophe, give up your big surburban house and SUV, and oh, by the way, you’re an idiot!”
But from Nickbert’s Monty Python post, I’ve decided that if Glenn Beck is the Evil Bunny, then JHK is one of the Knights Who Say Ni!

Therefore, whenever I hear him say something like “cracker” or “teabagger,” I’ll just substitute NI!!! Or, better yet: Ekke Ekke Ekke Ekke Ptang Zoo Boing Zow Zing!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTQfGd3G6dg

 

 

 

Dr. Martenson,
I would like make an observation regarding the diversity of reaction and content of the posts to the comments of Mr. Kunstler. Apart from the relevance of the various senarios that Mr. Kunstler outlines, his interview may have caused an inadvertent uncontrolled social experiment about how people may actually react to peak oil and the discontinuity we have probable entered.

Among a randomly chosen group of peak oil informed persons who are in the upper seats of the metaphorical Crash Course stadium, with the water at this groups feet, some are going to try to get free, and some are going to debate  which of the two drowned football teams had the advantage on the field before the water rose.

The consequences of peak oil are so severe that I doubt, five years from now, anyone will give a damn about Lady Gaga’s artistic merits, Paris Hilton"s fashion choices, or a right wing political commentator’s opinions.  We’ll be worrying about whether the potato crop will come in.  Now, if we can all, just take a step back and reflect on this, there is a lesson to be learned.  We are all not going to get what we want, we will get and have to deal with what is possible in an energy poor future. 

For each of us, you make your choices and you take your chances.

 

Levin, I think you missed the point. While I was being light in my last post, I feel it is a very serious and dire issue when our self-appointed leaders engage in active bigotry. Given that we are in for rough times ahead, divisive rhetoric that demonizes a large portion of the American population is a very dangerous tack to take. 

It seems to me that labeling conservative white Christians as “teabaggers, racists, crackers, morons, rednecks,” and more is the new form of acceptable racism. It is bigoted, it is classist, and it is hateful.

I feel it is a serious enough problem - especially when our mainstream media engages in this stereotyping and demonizing regularly - that when I see it, I speak up against it.

How are going to navigate the perils of peak oil when neighbor is pitted against neighbor? You can already see the effects of this manufactured division when someone like Poet says he’s not willing to live in a white community because of fears that he won’t be accepted…and Safewrite commented that her black family member wouldn’t come visit her in the South due to racial fear-mongering, despite how integrated she says it is down there (and how she’s seen more actual racist behavior among white northerners).

What JHK says matters, and his divisiveness is creating more problems rather than solving them. I post my reaction here, in hopes that maybe he’ll actually read the comments on PeakProsperity.com. In the least, the next time someone is interviewed for CM, maybe the interviewer can pause and challenge the use of terms like “cracker” rather than let such comments slide. Seriously, if someone used the “n-word” here, would that be tolerated? “Cracker” is the white n-word…and while I am not so PC as to suggest we should never offend, it’s the hatred beneath that term that truly concerns me. I’m shocked that the term is being used in this day and age, by a privileged white man, no less. 

Finally…we do have the luxury of discussing these things now. Peak oil isn’t affecting us yet. Given the day where I have to walk 10 miles just to get to a doctor, I will probably have other things on my mind. Until then, I’ll comment on this issue because I feel passionate about it. I personally think if we cannot get past these false left/right and blue/red divisions in our country, we are going to have a full blown civil war before too long. Which would make everything a hell of a lot worse.

So JHK, if you are reading this…think carefully before you speak. Please.

Now off my high-horse. :slight_smile:

 

 

 

Steph,

Can I first share the joy of being greeted by a pair of owls on an adjacent chimney pot, hooting to each other while I stood on my back-step. Such for the rigour’s of smoking!

I think where you and I don’t meet is where I accept there are character’s in this world that have chosen not to integrate, and are already bigoted. The US rise of extreme right-wing fundamentalist Christianity scares me witless, and there’s no way I want a part of that, no matter how ingratiating their passive smiles. In my hard studied books, the world was not created in seven days, and the world isn’t 12,000 years old. The Bill Hicks “…dinosaur bones were put there to test my faith in god” sketch, comes to mind loud and clear. I find I can’t integrate with this thinking, no matter even if you pegged me liberal minded.

If you want to use another term, other than “Cracker”, that’s fine and dandy, but it doesn’t mean there aren’t any. Chris Rock defines well with his definition inside his termed philosophy to his culture.Throwing peak oil into the mix isn’t going to make acceptance to our cause easier, being in mind I haven’t read one too many on this forum, since it tends to opporate at an established 110 IQ and above, which is a separation via integration in itself?

When the British government in its wisdom over Northern Ireland involved itself in the separation of Catholics and Protestants, extremity ran a river of blood on the streets. It was running a river of blood on the streets without the British government for centuries beforehand too, but not so extreme. Self appointed leadership of one faction or another was, intergenerationally, there assumed right, but not when you have your very own Irish brothers and sisters in British army uniform. Then they are the enemy to both, for which they both agreed in the majority.

More recently, we have American lead involvement in Iraq pitching allegiance to Sunni or Shiite religious faction’s. You can’t then, alter history with the barrel of a gun as easily as one might think it seems? Intoxicating the Irish with cheap loans and debt sure did raise people away from each others throats as religious ideology goes, but watch and wait, and you’ll see them rise back up as ugly as ever, now the housing smash is in full swing there.

No matter how much we attempt in our minds that we can use integration to support everyone in the country in supporting one cause in surviving as an attempt at unravelling the future carnage of peak oil, I sense that others here will agree that it is the abundance of energy that has stopped most if every ideology from bumping violently up against the other so far. When television is no-longer the adult tit of nurtured suppression, watch the winning mindset at play, and tell me that order over chaos will be king?

No. This discussion could well get nasty. Could it be because we’re writing here with a full belly, and for the most part it is quiet outside, with the streets more in order than in chaos complete with owls? Reading up on Argentina’s financial breakdown could help with assessment to the future of the US and UK in the most part, and I’m not saying this to be argumentative, just realistic.

Where would I be right now if I didn’t have the time and money to read, watch film, engulf myself in the study of subjects surrounding peak oil, with my localised teaching, and my writing on this forum? I have an opportunity to save people, but I can’t save everyone. Not everyone is willing to listen and learn, and I’ve capped that figure at one in a hundred. After two years of using the talented Crash Course method, it is still one in a hundred. So where is the other ninety-nine? When peak oil breaks mainstream, will this forum have the capacity to survive the onslaught of invasion? Could the number then rise to ten out of one hundred? How about fifteen out of a hundred, because eight-five are still missing?

Try as I have to debate people here on the rigour’s of the The Third Way ideology that we’re living in, people can’t see the complexity of the ideology because they’re living it. Everyone here, including you. It is an ideology that has been embraced by many nation’s, most notably the US and UK.

A lecture by Isaiah Berlin back in the 1950’s called Two Concepts of Liberty, by definition, outlines what The Third Way has come to embrace. Adam Curtis made an excellent documentary (see below) that this specific clip saves you reading the 32 page 1958 lecture, unless you’re so inclined.

It has been embraced in such a way that you can no-longer discuss anything in our countries without putting a price on it, in much the same way that capitalism is the ideology of majoritive choice. When peak oil finally hits at its hardest, these two complex multi-faceted ideologies are going to prove themselves either useless ideological devises, or more likely morph themselves into something wholey quite different, in an attempt to regain ground on other competing ideologies that are going to make this world a very fraught place, with war inevitable over remaining resources in an effort to maintain them.

In truth, name calling is the least of my worries …

Watching the series <a href=/comment/74167#comment-74167" rel=“nofollow”>The Trap by Adam Curtis should be eye opener enough.

~ VF ~

Nate & Levin,
Thank you both for your timely intercept. I am in full agreement with you both. However, this discussion needs more focus. If it ends up as sh*t flinging, I appologise in advance, but it needs the best and brightest here to adapt it, and not just one or two voices shouting into the wind, while objectivity has its back broken in fear of the outrage it may bring. This forum must have more of a spine than that, as you’ve proven by being a part of it.

I admire you both, as I have witnessed more often only one in a couple being on board to the message of the Crash Course …

Respectfully,

Paul

To Poet and all other Bloggers at this site: 
This is Levin’s wife, and I wish to offer everyone my sincerest apologies.  Communicating what you mean can be such a difficult thing, which is why I do not normally post.  Honestly, I did not mean to diminish anyone’s very real concerns, but as I re-read my posting, I recognize it can definitely be construed that way.  Poet’s and others concerns are very real, as they address the frightening and reprehensible problems of prejudice and stereotyping, which humanity, in it’s very short history on this planet, still has not overcome.  I, too, find JHK’s inflammatory language and atttitudes to be very dishonorable in a man who possesses gifts that could be better invested, especially when he has a public forum and persona.  JHK, in another interview, claimed he makes these statements to “be provocative.”  And, certainly provocation sparks debate (as it has clearly done here).  But, in the long-run, due to issues revolving around interpretation and “ease of use,” I do not think this stance is a wise choice on his part, and I do end up questioning whether or not these are his personal beliefs.  I recognize that I was not specific in what I was trying to address, and as is often the case, anyone reading thinks I might be talking about them in particular.  I will not make the attempt to clarify what I was trying to convey, because that can just lead to more miscommunication.  Instead, to Poet, especially, I am very sorry for anything I said that may have offended you and your concerns for yourself and your family’s safety, which I am certain is your number one issue.  Bringing those concerns to this forum, is what the forum is for.  Anyone’s concerns revolving around The Long Emergency are valid ones.  I wish all of you safety, resilience and a peaceful transition in a Powered-Down world!  Because I have doubts about the way I communicate, I will not post again.  I’m trying solve problems, not create them.

You don’t  have to agree with them on theology. That doesn’t mean they are going to shoot and kill you over it. I understand the fear of them, this was also programmed into me as a young liberal, particularly over the issue of “my right to choose,” but the more I’ve been actually exposed to fundamentalist Christians, the more I realize they are mostly nice, sweet, genuine people who wouldn’t harm a fly.

Once you actually sit down and have a talk to them with an open heart and mind, you’ll understand where they are coming from more. I don’t agree with their theology but I am not concerned that they are hateful people. On the contrary, I think most are very loving people, at least the ones I’ve met and spoken with. I had a lovely conversation with an evangelical on an airplane who told me that she had a lesbian friend whom she loved dearly, just disagreed with her lifestyle. So that to me breaks the stereotype of the gay “hater.”

She is certainly more tolerant than some liberal friends I used to have - I had two male friends of a long history who disowned me for sticking up for Sarah Palin (for feminist reasons). Two! Supposedly tolerant “enlightened” urban liberals - who can’t have anyone in their lives who so much as sticks up for Sarah Palin. That’s insane. These guys are also atheists. So honestly, the people I’m more worried about when it comes to hate are the frothing-at-the-mouth liberal white male atheists like JHK. This is not to say all atheists are crazy haters - I think that most are rational and reasonable, but a few of them turn to politics as their replacement for religion, and become “fundamentalist” about it.

It seems (in general) to be more those on the left that do this…libertarian atheists, by contrast, are generally rational and not wrought up emotionally when it comes to politics. Maybe it’s because the left is about phrasing their causes as being about “helping” people. I think the liberal atheists have a yearning to do good, but make their politics an identity and a religion replacement, and so they end up making those on the right their version of “Satan.”

Given all that, if there was a civil war, I’m going to go join the conservative Christians if it’s a choice between them and the angry liberal atheists/agnostics…because I honestly think those evangelicals would be nicer to me. 

I hope that does not cross the bounds of religious discussion here. 

 

 

 

Very tough times are coming.  Do you think the government (state or federal) will be there for us?  Community is what everything will be reduced to.  Dividing your local community (and all the associated skill sets needed to survive) into several factions will reduce what small chance of survival you may have.  I have very strong views, but choose not to alienate  folks that may be an important part of my future. 
The D’s and R’s are very good at picking a hand full of lightning rod issues that continue to pit good people against good people.  The real problem lies with our “leaders”.  

What is clear to me is that as fuel becomes increasing expensive, we will become increasing decentralized.  Washington will become less and less relevent.  And community will become more and more important.

Nate

Steph,
I can assure you that I am not regarding the gentler members of the ideology, but those of a particularly manipulative political agenda. I’ll be happy to further expand on that area of subject via pm.

What I am trying to express here is the inordinate amount of correctness that is motivating people either not to pose ideas for fear of retribution here, or simply to place their focus upon minor detail, causing a valuable discussion on the bigger issue’s to be lost while braving the possibility of offending each other.

If I am allowed the option of responsible discussion rather than being singled out as a ripple maker, there is a chance that people here will find some benefit from it.

This would still my frustration at reading people’s second guesses at what they think I mean, rather than what I really mean.

If correctness is going to quiet to silence any chance of a discussion on deeply troubling issue’s that require airing by a collection of adults, mighten it prove that the forum is limiting itself to a level of pointlessness in many areas of debate?

Paul

I subscribe to the idea that most people are apathetic and bad people act with impunity when they don’t think there are any consequences to suffer.
With a breakdown of law and order, ugly people can afford to get uglier.
http://www.brazzil.com/articles/188-february-2008/10042.html

Especially if they think they can get away with it. I’ve had a lot of experience in that regard.
If you are one of a few minorities (whether by race or religion) in an area, you are more likely to be targeted because:

  1. There are fewer of you to spread the risk of an attacker. There is safety in numbers and in diversity, whether you are gay, Wiccan, Bangladeshi, or whatever.
  2. The vast majority are likely to be ignorant of, and unsympathetic to, you and your culture. There are fewer people likely to have friends of your minority group and a stake in your group’s outcome because there are fewer of you.
  3. Those who wish to act against you have less fear of facing consequences. Social disapproval of their actions is also more likely to be muted.

In an area where there are more of your minority group in an area with a diverse mixing of racial and religious groups:

  1. There are more of you to spread the risk.
  2. There are enough of you that you can form community groups, interest groups, watch groups.
  3. The vast majority interact with you on a daily basis, likely have close friends or have intermarried or have relatives of your minority (race or religion).
  4. Those who wish to act against you have greater fear of facing consequences. Social disapproval of their actions is also more likely to be heightened.

While race riots may occur and can be devastating, the outcome is less likely to be one-sided if the minority is well-armed and organized than if they are not.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosewood_massacre
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_armed_resistance_in_the_Los_Angeles_riots
http://jpfo.org/

Sure some may wax philosophical about how most people are good people and we shouldn’t stereotype or avoid living in certain parts of this country. Sure, during economic good times, racial and religious tensions tend to recede to the background, but when times are bad or there are foreign relations tensions or glocal conflicts, minorities are scapegoated and persecuted. Whatever. To those who complain, I ask again: “If you trust your own people, why are you storing guns and ammo?”

Hate is still alive, folks. When law and order breaks down, it will free up hate to act. You wouldn’t have had this spectacle in Dearborn, Michigan would you:
“Attorney Joe Brandon Jr., representing opponents of the mosque, has leveled multiple accusations at the county and Islamic Center. He accused planning commissioners of pre-deciding the approval of the mosque, argued that a public hearing should have been held to discuss its construction, claimed that Islam is a political movement bent on world domination and not a religion and claimed that Muslims are out to replace U.S. laws with Islamic Shariah laws. He asked county commissioners whether they approved of pedophilia, which he said was allowed under Shariah.”
http://www.tennessean.com/article/20101112/NEWS03/101112021/Murfreesboro-Mosque-hearing-to-end-Wednesday

Poet

Steph,
Good luck with finding a doctor at the end of your ten mile walk.

Dr. Martenson,

Thank you for your work on the Crash Course.  Kunstler’s book “The Long Emergency” and the Crash Course threaded the needle through my more than 30 years of studying a resource constrained world first modeled in the 1972 book “The Limits to Growth”.

I have observed another social experiment on your site and I find it deeply troubling.  You have demonstrated how one person can navigate a way to make a living from the corporate world to the economic and social discontinuity we all now face and in the process a cult of personality seems to have developed around you.  This type of dynamic can impair the understanding of the complex issues we face by your audience.      While you are to be congratulated for spreading “your” message, you stood on the “shoulders of giants” to develop it. Good luck with your preparations.

I’m done.