“Japan …is the fractal part that illustrates the whole.”
Yes it seems so and I have a front row seat here in Japan, where I am living full time for more than 10 years continuously. and having continuous exposure and occasional living here for the last 36 years.
I was employed as a scientist in a big corporation in Osaka during 4 of the peak bubble years (late 80s) and felt that the people (very arrogant about their economy) and the economy then were totally non-rational and out of touch with reality. The changes (which are cast as “the lost decades!!”) in a way are a welcome return to a more rational life style and more humble public spirit. I spent about 20 of those ensuing lost years representing technology companies here as their patent attorney and gave many lectures to middle managers in Japan and wrote many legal summaries, before walking away from American law when I realized how profoundly corrupt it had become over the years due to global corporation directed modification of the laws to help them cheat and steal from others, using the patent law.
Much of the covid corruption at the CDC in fact was mediated by the patent law. How that law was changed and used by pharma to bribe govt decision makers is a story which to this day has not been described clearly, probably because the legal changes are done in obscure (occult) manner such that even lawyers in a relevant field have a hard time figuring out the convolutions.
Japan is indeed a fractal notice of the future, and I am happy to see the population drop 0.5% per year (the consuming population of <50YO is dropping much faster than this though). So why isnt it a good thing for the economy to drop. I would love to see population drop 50% and see nature come back more, especially in the over-fished oceans. A 50% drop in population along with 50% drop in so called GDP should be a good thing. And, I thought that we were worried about AI taking over our jobs and making much employment redundant.
The old people have very high savings and it is said that virtually all of the Japanese debt is owed to them, and that almost 50% of that debt is extinguished when the person dies and taxes kick in. This is an important point so I would to others with more knowledge confirm or deny this. The average social security is about 1/2 to 1/3 that of Americas but the health care costs are about 10 times less. Housing costs and taxes are less. The biggest expense in our town budget is interest payment (at 0.1%?) on previous borrowing and the biggest input is new borrowing. This is clearly crazy and I expect that my town (the people who are government workers and make up the administration) will be disbanded and we will be folded into a nearby city when SHTF. Meanwhile. the practice in Japan during economic disaster (covid times, 2008 time, come to mind here) is to keep people employed (esp. true for private companies) by decreasing wages a lot, especially for upper management who have a responsibility. I saw this happen, but note that over the years Japan is copying the US more and more and silently fire people by transferring them into smaller lower paid co-companies or divisions and letting those go bankrupt, kind of like cutting off your leg to save the body. I expect some local govt to disappear and departments in big cities get disbanded.
I have been away from PP recently because I am very busy developing an exciting revolution in communications and dont have time for keyboarding chit chat. I am partly motivated because my new technique avoids existing radio hardware and allows a more intimate peer to peer communication, which at some point can become difficult or near impossible to pick up on normal radios. But that is another conversation (www.photonradio.com)
I had to respond because of the excellent observations and comments made here. I resonate well with the comment “Personally, I’d sign up for the Japanese version.”
I really think that too much attention and belief is showered on the banker’s exponential growth religion. Money and money counting is just a tool, and many other things are more important. After spending some months in China the last few years, I am impressed with how the ruling class there finally figured out how to harness capitalism, while preventing money per se (the richest people there) from buying out and influencing taking over government. The saga of Jack Ma (#1 rich at the time) is instructive: he was taken to the woodshed immediately after he declared that he intended to get involved in banking. The problem of the rich taking over is a theme in their legal constitution.
The banker exponential GDP dream state is wrong, unhelpful, and misleading to those who want to rebuild wealth producing communities. If I pay 10 co pay for a 70$ dentist work(a filling that costs 300$ in the US)(national insurance pays 60$) that shows up as a smaller increment of GDP compared to America and we conclude based on American inflated numbers that America is richer. Same with cars. I pay 15k$ for a new (small, appropriate) car that costs 100$ per year to insure and that gets 2-3X gas mileage compared to the land boats that are foisted on the Americans. So maybe the American pays 4X as much for the same wealth or value in real use. That inflated GDP is misleading. The same thing happens in health care, where the real cost is at least 5X less in Japan for the same value.
As I mentioned here before, the Japanese have endured at least 7 currency collapses in their history and the ones who think about money are waiting for the next one. Other things are more important. Real collaboration outside of monetary relationships are very important. American fascists created a GDP affecting corruption wherein small cars and trucks are blocked from the market via legal/regulatory capture in true fascist fashion. Cars are unnecessarily big, too expensive and too polluting in the US. My used truck with 20k miles on it (250$) serves me just as well as a vehicle that costs 20 times more in the US. We are more practical here as smaller vehicles are allowed/encouraged, but which contribute probably 5-10 times less to the GDP while equalling the same real wealth. My last new car cost 10k$ (when money was 100Y per $) carries 5 people and carried one or two goats in the back numerous times. I feel sorry for my relative in the US who can no longer buy a chevy S 10 because the fascists deem that too unprofitable compared to their controlled alternative vehicles which are way too heavy, too expensive and much more difficult to drive (try to make a U-turn with a modern American car with 17 inch wheels).
Following gasoline, food, contruction materials, imports of wine etc. over the last few years, at one point last year diesel fuel was actually cheaper here than in the US and gas prices have risen much less than expected. Even in dollar terms the price is not much different than it has been for years. I think it comes from the Russian far East. Vending machine coffee that was 100Y in 1988 is now 150Y in 2024 although 10% of that difference is recent. Food prices like tofu and rice and vegetables and other things seem to be going up at a slower rate than in America. Materials from the hardware store that were imported are increasingly made in Japan, with somewhat higher prices. Perhaps this is diagnostic of what will happen to the US as it eschews Chinese made products. Imports from places like S America seem to remain the same price while manufactured goods made in Japan have seen the biggest jump. My favorite instant noodles was 68Y (40 cents todays prices) jumped to 100 yen this past year. Eggs are 220Y per 10 (1.55$ per dozen?) and dont seem to be increasing while a liter of milk is about 240Y ($1.50 todays exchange rate). I buy 8 foot long 2x4 of good quality for about 6$ and the price of 6 foot long 2x4 has been stable at 650Y (4$ in todays exchange rate).
I have a great deal of empathy for those exposed to outside market prices such as plane fares. Yes it is much harder for Japanese to buy plane ticketsfrom United or hamburgers from McDonald, and manufactured goods in Japan such as processed food are getting price increases. But basic stuff such as bread and milk and tofu dont seem to increase as much as in the US. Yesterday I bought cheap type white bread for 120Y per loaf (up from 108 a year ago). and specialty bread costs double that. In sum I think that the biggest COL increases by far are electricity and foreign travel. The debt has to explode soon, and this will cause govt realignment I think. Too many people doing unnecessary work in govt. But I think that factories are coming back and we will see some lower wage employment. I expect a collapse but would not want to be anywhere else in the world when that happens. There is public spirit here. An interesting un-discussed notion is what will happen with attitudes towards foreigners- I think that it will be more difficult for new foreigners but am not worried about myself. Japnese really respond to those that work towards the good of the community.
In addition to imports being replaced with local production, we also see the price of labor dropping in Japan and at this point it may be the same or less than in much of Eastern China. The minimum wage in my town is about $5.5 -$6) in present rates and it is difficult to find young Chinese to do simple work. I see a renaissance in local production coming as a result of this collapse. Another meandering but interesting point is that the 4th turning has arrived in Japan (as well as in China-a separate topic). I know several 40s YO people who refuse to work but live off social security (I have malaise disease!) or off their mother. Most of the middle aged and elderly men on my island are experienced welders but we import welders from Vietnam to do the shipbuilding/repair nowadays.
Electricity jumped about 50% this past year as it has in much of the world.
The labor cost in China has gone up and in the technical fields, there is a brain drain into China, where the wages vs cost of living is superior. Even Japanese researchers (esp young) are starting to emigrate to China.
Sorry to meander, it has been a while since I have looked at this forum. I am living on SS and dont have money to spend just to join a single keyboarding group, there are so many keyboarding groups of merit.
I and Yuko, my wife, came to our small island www.yugeshima.com to develop a new path as an alternative, perhaps in a manner or spirit similar to what Chris and Evie are doing in Massachusetts. We call ourselves Renaissance for this reason. We have been visited by more than 60 people from around the world.