While you wouldn’t know it by listening to the major media outlets, the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus continues to get worse. As does our understanding of its potential threat to the public health.
At this point, we have to be honest with ourselves: We are dealing with a true pandemic at this point
Chris’ message is direct: we’re passed the point when this could have been contained and ‘blown over’ in a short period of time.
This is going to get worse. Quite possibly a lot worse.
It’s time to prepare folks.
Be sure to stay up-to-date on Peak Prosperity’s ongoing full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak by visiting here.
Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. Over 2.5. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1
The comparison of 2019-ncov and SARS in the above graph, makes me suspect that perhaps the nCoV coronavirus could have existed for many months before anyone diagnosed it as a new type of disease. What appears to be a sudden increase in cases of 2019-ncov coming out of nowhere, could actually be a sudden increase in the rate of correct diagnoses of generalized flu-like symptoms.
Is this a possible explanation, or am I grasping at straws?
China BLOCKS UK from airlifting hundreds of Brits trapped in coronavirus-plagued Wuhan (Wustoo)
“HUNDREDS of Brits are stranded at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak after China blocked attempts to airlift them home.
Officials have told all countries its lockdown will not be lifted for repatriation flights, a Foreign Office source revealed.
And yesterday worried Brits in the city of Wuhan — the source of the deadly illness — said they had been left without any information. The Foreign Office has been criticised for its response to the crisis as it emerged the British embassy in Wuhan was closed over the weekend.
The city is under quarantine with air and rail departures suspended and roads closed.”
Is this a possible explanation, or am I grasping at straws?
Good probing Jerry. With any such big-time disease, there's an effort to chase the patient chains back to origin. The question always has to be answered, "where did this come from?"
Unless there's a whole lot of lying going on here, the very first clusters all came from the live animal/seafood market. There are no known cases before then, and the thing is so danged infectious it's very unlikely that it was percolating along and then suddenly decided to get frisky.
So I'm pretty sure, as much as I can be, that 2019-ncov came roaring out of the gate in early December 2019.
Brilliant. With coronavirus spreading, U.S. evacuating personnel to San Francisco from Wuhan, China (The Los Angeles Times)
“The U.S. State Department announced Sunday that it planned to evacuate personnel stationed in Wuhan, China, to San Francisco because of the coronavirus outbreak.
Officials are “making arrangements to relocate its personnel stationed at the U.S. Consulate General in Wuhan to the United States. We anticipate that there will be limited capacity to transport private U.S. citizens on a reimbursable basis on a single flight leaving Wuhan Tianhe International Airport on January 28, 2020 and proceeding directly to San Francisco,” the State Department said in a statement.
The news comes as California is dealing with its first case of the virus.”
Thanks for your efforts Chris. They are appreciated by many.
I haven’t been that concerned about past outbreaks (sars, ebola, etc.) but this one has my full attention. My spider senses don’t go off that much. Last time was in 2007.
A PHD scientist friend of mine, my tip of the spear spouse who is in the medical field and several other savvy friends are right in there with me.
The diversions right now are unprecedented. Davos, impeachment, hollyweird, coronavirus, the largest human trafficking event in the world, Iran/Iraq/Russia/China, FED money printing…
I’m going to really stir the pot with this request…How about an Off the Cuff with Dane Wigington. His latest geoengineering weekly report #233 hammers it home. If none of you have heard of him…www.geoengineeringwatch.org The writing on the wall here is there, only more frightening.
Thanks again for all your hard work Adam and Chris. Think about it.
Jerryr you are correct. The numbers don’t add up, in order to have the virus reach 2800 confirmed cases either one of two things have to be true;
It had to have started months ago, as in November or before and or
It has to be radically more transmissible.
A virus with an r0 of less than 3 that started on the 1st of December could not have infected anywhere near 2800. So either 1 or 2 are correct, or both 1 and 2 are correct.
Another Strategy: Seeking infection to establish immunity
This strategy is based on the assumption that you SURVIVE the initial infection!
If good medical care could give a strong chance of survival and a setting for that care were clearly available, I would think that seeking infection would be one strategy. Similar to a “chicken pox party” held in decades past.
Epidemics “burn out” as the percentage of immunity in a population grows to a critical level. This is where we are at with measles currently in the USA. When a traveler brings a measles case into an American city it finds well over 90% of the population immune (R(o) < 1) and the disease doesn’t propagate. (Especially when the public health department further reduces R by isolating the sick and their contacts.)
The medical community will desperately need care providers that are immune and can work without fear.
and remember going to the Dorsey farm to play with there children who had itchy scabs all over them. I soon had the scabs and the oatmeal bath.
Now as concerns the novel corona virus,you go first???
There are advantages: First, you’ll be able to preplan good care for yourself. Second, if you need hospital care, the hospitals won’t be overwhelmed yet. Third you can plan to isolate from vulnerable family members. Finally, you can help out once you recover protected by your hard earned immunity!
I’m not sure I would try it, though.
On another note, I’m working hard on not touching my face. I’ve caught myself once today, so my success rate is high, but not high enough (although wearing a mask and maybe goggles with minimal face touching might do the trick).
Can anyone tell me the best disinfecting agent to use to wipe down doorknobs, faucets, etc? Will regular Clorox disinfecting wipes kill corona virus, or would you need the actual hospital grade bleach wipes? If a product says it kills influenza germs, is that sufficient?
One inexpensive approach: Mix household bleach w/ water in a spray bottle, spray contact surfaces then wipe clean. Been using 50/50 cut but that might be excessive, perhaps someone on the thread might have a better ratio (you’ll get white spots on your clothes if not careful). YLMMV
San Francisco Activates Emergency Operations Center To Prepare For Coronavirus (Zerohedge, San Francisco Chronicle)
“Increasing fears of coronavirus spreading across the U.S. have resulted in San Francisco Mayor London Breed to activate the city’s emergency operations center, reported the San Francisco Chronicle.
“It’s, so we have a centralized location and process to prepare for what we need to do, to share public information, and to take any action if necessary,” said Jeff Cretan, a spokesman for Breed.
So far, there have been no confirmed cases in the Bay Area, but there are new reports that at least ten people have been tested for the deadly virus in Alameda County.
On Monday, the CDC said 110 people are under observation and being tested for the virus across the U.S. While 5 cases have already been confirmed, another 32 have tested negative.
The emergency center is also coming online one day before a Boeing 767, filled with 230 Americans, is expected to depart from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport on Tuesday for California.
There are more than 1,000 Americans trapped in the epidemic-stricken Chinese city of Wuhan, in which the U.S. State Department launched an emergency evacuation operation over the weekend.
The plane is expected to land in Ontario, California, which is about 400-miles south of the Bay Area.”
Issac Asimov had a SciFi story read long ago about an interstellar space ship. The Chief Medical officer would release a respiratory or flu virus into the ships ventilation system every Friday afternoon to challenge and strengthen the travelers immune systems. The travelers hated the runny nose and cough every weekend and complained bitterly…
We sometimes think of THE DISEASE ITSELF as having a CFR or an R(o). But these values also depend on the state of the individual’s immune system (wars, famines, food quality, antioxidants?, etc) and the strength medical care available in that location. Are the hospitals in chaos due to overload with all ICU beds full and the critically ill lying on hallway floors? Review of measles CRFs by country and global region.
But, as an example in the USA, measles mortality in the last decade is about equal to the number of people killed bicycling everyday. Baseline nutritional status is good and basic medical care is widely available.
So, the question is, with ideal medical care, could we get even the ~25% who become severely ill through. If yes, then would it be possible to have a cadre of brave medical professional volunteers seek 2019-nCoV infections, have scheduled ideal medical care and an isolated area for recovery, and emerge to be the care providers of the next cohort?
I don’t know.
But facing the virus is the path to immunity.
Rush vaccine development, like Ebola or Zika, takes several years even after years of basic science study.
There seems to be a lot of focus on the spread of nCov beyond the Chinese borders to the rest of the world as a precursor of a massive pandemic.
Let’s just suppose one thing:
Let’s say that somehow, some way, all the other countries are able to contain the spread within their own boundaries. All done?
Nope.
Because this pandemic is going to wreak ABSOLUTE DEVASTATION on the Chinese economy. The country that is the single biggest purchaser of commodities in the Entire World.
The country that is the biggest Exporter in the Entire World.
If the engine of the worlds economy, the biggest factor in International Trade, is crushed by this pandemic (and there is Every Indication that this is happening as we speak) then . . .
The greatest Black Swan depression will descend on the planet and whether the nCov causes any damage outside China will be irrelevant,
BECAUSE if China is Crushed, The World Econcomy Is Crushed!
Sand Puppy - this idea has crossed my mind too.
Pros: all supplies still available at local hospital now
All staff still working at local hospital, ambulances, paramedics and ICU available now
My family still well and able to care for me now
Plenty of sick leave available at work and workplace still able to make payments to staff
Acquired immunity and able to care for family and others when the full kapow kicks in
I’m probably as well nourished and healthy as possible compared to some imaginable future scenarios
Cons:
None of the above may be available when I get really ill
I’m tired and run down lately
I could make the following people ill unknowingly: brothers’ newborn prem baby / parent with lung cancer / parent with autoimmune conditions / nieces & nephews / work colleagues and clients and clients families. There’s a group of very compromised people in that list. Plus my immediate spouse and offspring.
I do not know enough about what this virus does to the body. And the truth is not being shared honestly so I am very suspicious this is nasty.
I have allergies and anaphylaxis. Do these make me more or less likely to survive this disease, more or less likely to suffer from a cytokine storm?
There could already be a number of people affected in my area who are about to swamp the system before I arrive. Game over.
I could use up resources that may be needed by people I know and care for.
My conclusion is I have prepared as well as I can within the bounds of my life. I must just wait and see what really happens. Being that the virus has arrived in Melbourne, it is 150km away from us so sure to arrive soon. I’ve beaten the herd with preparations.
And I did tell my husband he is not to get out of the car at the airport tonight when he drops family members off. He thought I was overreacting. So - I’ve been leaving Peak Prosperity screens open on my internet browser hoping he pays more attention to you guys than me.
Quercus - I know I touch my face ALL THE TIME. I’m an absolute walking grot. Have found recently while wearing masks for bushfire smoke that I touch my face a lot LESS with a mask on. I’m not sure why but perhaps the mask is a reminder to keep hands away. I also made some quick observations on my way into work yesterday. I touched 4 gate latches, 2 sliding doors, a chair and a tap before touching the hand sanitiser pump. Then touched a TV remote, I-pad screen, air conditioner control etc etc. I guarantee you none of these things has been cleaned in recent history.
Good luck to everyone if this is as bad as it seems…
