The Coronavirus Is Now An Actual Pandemic

Sorry, I’m no expert but have heard that this 2019-nCoV virus has kind of an ‘outer protective shell’ that allows it to remain dormant on inanimate objects for days. In order to better break down this shell a mixture of household antiseptic solutions has been suggested. I think that one is using both sodium hypcholorite (Clorox™) and alcohol (Isopropyl and/or Ethanol). I don’t know the %-ages and am not even sure if this theory is correct, so I like you, would appreciate an authority to publish the complete dope on using common household antiseptics to cleanse house.

In one of the videos you mentioned the 19’ Spanish Flu. What was the r (0) of that? Higher than 2.5?
I just interviewed John Barry today who wrote the NYTimes best selling book on the Spanish Flu ("The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History.") He's served on quite a few high level Influenza Preparedness committees. I asked him that very question. He said that the 1918 Spanish flu clocked in at around R0 = 1.8 The most recent H1N1 seasonal flu was around 1.3 But his unnamed world class infectious disease contact says this nCoV is somewhere between 2.5 and 3.5 Based on the numbers we're now seeing, the high end seems appropriate? Also, not to give the whole interview away, but he said there's no chance of containing this one. None. The incubation period and the high R0 make it so.

This was just today sent to local families who use a nearby childcare centre.
Their information and links provided are sourced from our Australian Government. Woefully inadequate precautions for a disease that seems to be contagious while no symptoms are present. And for a group of people who are known for poor hygiene practices - children, who go home to families and extended families.

'Dear Families

As you may be aware, the Australian Government Department of Health has issued information following a new coronavirus affecting people who have recently been in the city of Wuhan, China.

This advice can be found here, particularly for people arriving in Australia from China.

Additionally, the centre wishes to advise the following:

• All children, families and staff should follow standard infection control precautions, in particular, hand hygiene.

. • Staff are to be vigilant with regards to all food handling.

• All family members are asked to be constantly aware of cold/flu symptoms, in both themselves and others

. • Any instances of cold/flu symptoms are to be immediately referred to the centre director

Please find attached the information sheet from QLD Health'


Interesting. This could get uglier on many levels, and quickly. Regardless, IMO, any returning individuals from China should be considered contagious and quarantined for at least 3 weeks. Maybe past time for countries to shut down all borders?

Been a long time since I posted on this site. Just a random thought from someone whose income is greatly tied into the US agricultural economy: I guess we might have to rethink that whole thing about counting on China buying $40 million of ag products from us for the next couple of years.

Day care centers use a solution of 9 parts water to 1 part bleach to disinfect toys, surfaces and what not.

From the Subreddit on Pandemics: Hong Kong University press conference.
“We modeled epidemic curves out to August 2020 for all the major city clusters in China: Chongqing, Shanghai-Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Beijing. Chongqing is predicted to have the largest epidemic due to large population and most intense traffic volume coupled to Wuhan. The timing of the peak is sometime in April to May 2020”
" If we want to change the course of these epidemic curves, then we are looking at “SUBSTANTIAL, DRACONIAN MEASURES LIMITING POPULATION MOBILITY” which should be taken sooner rather than later: school closures, ban mass gatherings, work from home, but also between population clusters, we must reduce population mobility. Should containment fail and local transmission is established, mitigation measures from previous pandemics could “come off the shelf” as templates for action. The major Chinese cities would be “well advised” to review these mitigation plans and prepare to act."

That’s not what I was hoping to hear…
New question: Assuming the higher R0 of 3.5, how does that change the other numbers you mentioned in the video? What % of the population would have gotten the Flu if the R0 of the Spanish Flu had been 3.5 instead of 1.8? And how does that translate to today’s population numbers?

It’s already too late?
Our preps will have to do. I was hoping the Fed’s shenanigans would buy us more time.
Alas. May the odds ever be in your favor, friends.

Having a hard time believing any “official” stats at this point. Would be nice to have an real estimate of CFR on this. sigh
This morning:

This afternoon:

Just as thc0655 and others have pointed out, it takes some time to see how many of the sick people will die. From the press conference by Professor Gabriel, HK Medical School linked above by signalfire:

Fatality ratio during the beginning of an epidemic is [appears] usually low. We learned that from SARS. For the first few weeks of SARS the WHO estimated 3-5% case fatality, it turned out to be 17% in HK. That's because of the timespan from infection to symptoms, to hospitalization, to treatment, to recovering or expiring - a full month.

Chris and Deboll, could you please provide your informed perspective on the study (here) Deboll posted re: the effects of air temperature (AT) and relative humidity (RH) on the survival of coronavirus surrogates? The study particulars are a bit above my pay grade, but reading through the abstract the following caught my attention [bold added]:
“At 4°C, infectious virus persisted for as long as 28 days, and the lowest level of inactivation occurred at 20% RH. Inactivation was more rapid at 20°C than at 4°C at all humidity levels; the viruses persisted for 5 to 28 days, and the slowest inactivation occurred at low RH. Both viruses were inactivated more rapidly at 40°C than at 20°C…The results show that when high numbers of viruses are deposited, [surrogate viruses] TGEV and MHV may survive for days on surfaces at ATs and RHs typical of indoor environments. TGEV and MHV could serve as conservative surrogates for modeling exposure, the risk of transmission, and control measures for pathogenic enveloped viruses, such as SARS-CoV and influenza virus, on health care surfaces.”
Virus survival up to 28 days on hard surfaces?? Yikes! The CDC has stated as recently as today during a teleconference that, based on SARS, it is likely that the 2019-nCoV may last only about 2 days on surfaces–hence they assume a very low risk of 2019-nCoV remaining on packages shipped from China. (No consideration given for AT or RH or other confounding environmental conditions.) What are your thoughts on this wide discrepancy between the study results and the assertions of the CDC regarding 2019-nCoV potential survival on surfaces?
PS: I’ll post the CDC teleconference transcript when it becomes available
PPS: Welcome to the PP tribe, Deboll! :slight_smile:
Chris did a podcast in 2018 with John Barry about Pandemics. Starting at about the 20:50 mark Mr. Barry talks about social distancing and its challenges. Podcast has great historical info. Worth a 2nd listen!
As of 24:00 on January 27, the National Health and Health Commission had received a total of 4,515 confirmed cases, 30 of which were 976 cases of severe cases, 106 cases of deaths, and 60 cases of discharged patients. There are 6973 suspected cases. Data coming from China's commission of Health. Is it possible we won't know accurate death rates until survivors fully recover? Only 60 so far reportedly cured in China by this report.

Wow! Chris’ daily videos on the coronavirus have been seeing tremendous views on YouTube.
As of this writing, the four videos in our series so far have received over 1.65 million YouTube views(!). Just within the past 72 hours.
After years of hard work putting out the best content we can, it’s extremely heartening to see a moment like this when the world suddenly responds and says ‘Yes, we’re listening!’
I just wish it weren’t happening due to a pandemic threat.
But despite that, I hope this is rewarding validation for all the die-hard PPers who have supported and encouraged this site through the years.

Its gratifying to see so many new names and posts from members who have recently joined the PeakProsperity tribe, as well as from longer term members who may post less frequently than some of us “regulars”. This is a unique and vibrant community–even more appreciated during these very strange times. We’re better together! Thanks to all, and especially to Chris, Adam and the PP team. :slight_smile:

Thanks for surfacing this earlier (excellent) podcast with John, Granny.
For those not familiar with John Barry, he’s the author of The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague In History, written about the Spanish Influenza outbreak of 1918.
Chris just recorded another interview with John a few hours ago, to get his perspective on how the coronavirus risk compares to that of the Spanish flu.
John’s short answer = we should indeed be worried :frowning:

Try something different…do some research and concoct your own blend using essential oils. Orange, eucalyptus, oregano, rosemary, clove, lemon…the options are many. Most of these kill nearly everything.
We use a mix of Bronner’s Sal suds, eucalyptus oil and water to clean our counters. The stuff is the bomb and it smells good. Complete sanitation to boot.
Our dish/hand soap is a mix of Fractionated coconut oil, Sal Suds, lemon oil, oregano oil and On Guard. On Guard is a mix of orange, rosemary, oregano and eucalyptus if my memory is correct. Easy to look into if your interested.
The beauty of the soap is the fact that you are bathing your hands in EO every time you use it. Put it in your bathroom and kitchen. Inhaling the E-oil smell is far better than Clorox bleach.
Check out for commercial grade oil far cheaper than the big name brands…been there, done that.

CDC’s transcript from today’s call-in teleconference is here. Featuring Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Disease; and Dr. Weldon, “who is leading our task force for this response.”
After a brief opening statement by Dr. Messonnier, questions posed by reporters from BuzzFeed, Fox News, Popular Science, CNBC, AAP News, Associated Press, NewsDay, New York Times, and few other callers.
The transcript is not long and worth a full reading. Here’s a few eye-opening, albeit disconcerting, excerpts:
tests kits - “CDC has developed a diagnostic test called a real-time reverse transcription preliminary chain reaction, that’s RRTPCR. It can diagnose this new coronavirus in respiratory serum samples from clinical specimens. Currently we’re refining this use of this test so we can provide optimal guidance to states and laboratories on how to use it. We’re working on a plan now so that priority states get these kits as soon as possible. But in the coming weeks we’ll share these tests with domestic and international partners so they can test for the virus themselves. Our longer-term plan is to share these tests with domestic and international partners through the agency’s international re-agent resource.”
virus mutation - “…based on CDC’s analysis of the available data it doesn’t look like the virus has mutated.”
“enhanced” screening at entry airports - “…we are continuing to screen a few passengers from Wuhan at the five designated airports.”
spread of virus in US, low risk - “Right now, we have a handful of patients with this new virus here in the united states. However, currently in the U.S., this virus is not spreading in the community. For that reason, we continue to believe that the immediate health risk from the new virus to the general American public is low currently.”
screening travelers from Wuhan - “We’ve screened somewhere around 2400 people so far…the number of people who are coming from Wuhan is declining with the aggressive closure of that city. I don’t have in front of me sort of daily total from today or even the day before, but those numbers are, indeed, declining and we’re continuing the same posture with those five airports with the same screenings.”
virus incubation period, R0 - “…our general interpretation at this point is that the incubation period is somewhere around two to 14 days…Most articles have had interpretation that the Arnot is somewhere 1.5 and 3. That’s not a dramatic difference.”
risk of 2019-nCoV from packages shipped from China - "In general, because of the poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, that’s in the range of hours, there’s likely a very, very, very low if any risk of spread from products or packaging that is shipped over a period of days or weeks in ambient the temperatures. So, at this time we can’t fully evaluate the risks from different products that are shipped from china under different conditions, but coronaviruses have generally spread most often by respiratory droplets and there’s no evidence that supports transmission of this coronavirus is associated with imported goods and no cases in the U.S., associated with imported goods. "
symptomatic/asymptomatic disease transmission - “We at CDC don’t have any clear evidence of patients being infectious before symptom on sets.”
human-to-human transmission - “So far, we’ve not seen any human-to-human transmission in the United States, but we’ll update you as more information becomes available from the U.S., as well as other countries.”
age, risk of patients - “…the disease is by far majorly in adults with older adults in those underlying illnesses with higher risk. In the united states the five cases are all in adults. There are a few reports of disease in children, and we’ll wait to learn more as more information becomes available. In the U.S., as you can imagine we’re also taking a cautious approach…”
cautious approach to testing Persons Under Investigation (PUIs), risk-adjusted by consensus decision making - “…we are being cautious about testing and being responsive to concerns of the clinicians and the health department. The decision about whether that patient gets tested is a joint decision between the clinician, the health department and CDC…number [current PUIs] is 110 — we’re prioritizing based on PUIs that might be at higher risk. For example, in general somebody who has a very close contact of a confirmed case and has respiratory symptoms might be a high are priority than somebody with a mild cough and traveled to Wuhan two weeks ago.”
sensitive to release of state PUI data - “…we are incredibly sensitive about releasing names of states in this kind of context…up to a state health department whether they want to make that release…if you want to know whether there are any PUIs in your state, please contact the state health department…”
screening, messaging, testing travelers from Wuhan/Hubei - “…In terms of the message to travelers, our focus is on returning travelers from Wuhan [and Hubei] who have respiratory symptoms and fever. This is something that we’ve been trying to make sure, we’re being very clear about to returning travelers and one of the things that’s really important about the screening at the airport is that we’re not just identifying people who are sick, we’re passing out those messages so that people who returned from Wuhan who came back a week ago, for example, if they have today a fever and respiratory infections, my message to them is please call your health care provider. It’s important you get analyzed and you may need to be tested.”