The Coronavirus Is Now An Actual Pandemic

I noticed that in recent years, a lot of people have fallen in love with essential oils. They have their benefits but they also have their risks. In fact, a number of them are carcinogenic. We had some women who rented space in our building who specialized in assisting female cancer patients. These women used a lot of essential oils, to the point where our building actually stunk and some patrons were starting to complain. I, for one, find many of these smells to be irritating and even noxious. And these women were using some essential oils that were carcinogenic … with cancer patients! Made no sense to me at all. When I told them about the possible risks, they seemed clueless. So just be aware, essential oils are NOT a cure-all.

After 3 years and with a gentle nudge from Adam, I finally added a photo Avatar.

A useful video from Jan 24 on how to wear a surgical mask properly … has English subtitles:

There is one clear piece of evidence that there was at least one case before the ‘fish market’ cluster. From the Lancet paper published on 24th January (page 4).

The symptom onset date of the first patient identified was Dec 1, 2019. None of his family members developed fever or any respiratory symptoms. No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases. There is also a paper which I have read (but cannot now find - I thought it was from Imperial College London) which noted that the average age of the patients reported on in the Lancet paper was very high in comparison the median age of the population of China. Therefore it was possible that the virus has been circulating longer in Wuhan, but any illness caused was not sufficiently severe to be considered other than seasonal flu or equivalent. Richard Update. The article I could not find was from ProMed - International Society for Infectious Diseases. The link is:

they’re literally dropping like flies
Wuhan Nurse saying there is 90,000 infected

Charles Hugh Smith has a very interesting article where he is citing genetic research into the age of the virus which seems to show it started october/november. Now my math example above would show that an r0 of 2.4 is correct if it’s that old. And r0 of 2.4 and a incubation period of 7 days would almost line up with the current best guesses. Maybe it’s a week or two out in either direction. His source

1st case in china R0 2.4
30/10/19 1
06/11/19 2
13/11/19 6
20/11/19 14
27/11/19 33
04/12/19 80
11/12/19 191
18/12/19 459
25/12/19 1101
01/01/20 2642
08/01/20 6340
15/01/20 15217
22/01/20 36520
29/01/20 87649

Scary new article on the Virus - from an Assistant Professor -

Your Lancet article’s note of at least 1 case reported at the first of December that has not been traced to the Wuhan “wet market” is supported in the article published in Foreign Policy magazine linked here by Andy_S (#27). That article notes several cases now known that are not linked to the market. It points to a source other than the current official account, and likely to a presence in the general population preceding December 2019.

I guess I should use the speaker function? If you need privacy go to another room. Headsets require that you touch your head which is pretty close to nose and mouth as well.
Few things touch our faces more often these days after touching our hands. Computer keyboards as well. It seems unlikely that I will clean my cell phone every time I touch it with my hands. Just my thoughts.

To the list of what to have in case this gets to the stage of having to isolate yourself/your family at home for weeks/months, I’d add this book: Feeling Good, by Dr. David Burns. I think that book is a must read anyway, but if you’re at home with nowhere to go and nothing to do besides worry, it’d be a great tool to help you manage your anxiety and sort through your thoughts.
It’s the only book I know of that has the distinction of having had several peer-reviewed, scientific papers published that tested whether giving someone the assignment of simply reading the book by itself caused a positive outcome (relieving depression in many of the studies’ subjects), but it’s much more than a book for depression. It’s useful for anxiety and other negative emotions. It’s proven helpful to me for over a year. Cognitive therapy works.

Here an overview that shows why the number of cases reported will not be up-to-date. The persons reported with disease at point (A) were infected at time point (B). Persons infected at time point (A) will only show symptoms at time point (C), but these infections are already ’ baked in the cake’. Persons who have an asymptomatic infection will not be reported either, but can most likely still transmit the virus to others.
Number of cases reported will also depend on proper diagnosis of the infection, adequate registration and consolidation of data, and truthful reporting of it…

I hope the overview gives enough resolution. This overview is from a training on cholera, but the same principles will be at play (cholera has a much shorter incubation period).
I suppose it isn’t clear yet how many infections are asymptomatic infections. For influenza this seems to be 20-50% of all infections (, not sure if it would be similar here. Did anybody read something on this?

You mentioned on this site a coming video - I think with expert John Barry (?)
What time roughly can we expect it?

Coronavirus isn't Ebola or the Black Plague, it's this year's flavor of the flu. Before this strain appeared, the CDC says from October 1, 2019 to mid-January of this year there have been 8,200 to 20,000 flu deaths in the US. The average per year is about 36,000. Coronavirus won't be all that special until we see numbers substantially above these.

As in every flu season, the usual precautions are your best bet. You know the drill. Stay away from crowds, wash yer hands, eat yer peas, get yer sleep. Apparently it's exceptionally contagious, even during its long incubation period. If your situation warrants it consider N95 or N100 masks and nitrile gloves. Don't get paranoid, but have a worst-case plan for long term isolation and the supplies to support it. The worst of the "worst-case" would have it mutating to a more lethal form.

Some sources say it has an R0 of about 5, which is top-of-the-chart contagious. True? I don't know. One source says the Wuhan coronavirus fatality rate has leaped to 15%, and the infection rate among those exposed is 83%. True? I don't know. But I do know there's something about an epidemic that brings out the apocalyptic in people. It could be because truth is the other Patient Zero.

Understand, the true mortality rate is the number of deaths per total number of patients when they contracted the flu, not per total number of patients when they died. The latter skews the mortality rate downward during the run up. Further, we can't know if many or even most cases are too mild to warrant a diagnosis to begin with, which would drastically skew the mortality rate upward. Nor do national and international agencies generally release their best data to the public on a timely basis. The point is, the numbers themselves are as unreliable as those who have the authority to act on them.

Don't assume disease control agencies can materially limit a flu pandemic, or even intend to. When confronted with a potentially dangerous new strain they invariably forfeit valuable time with inaction and comforting denials until the best opportunity for containment has passed. Then we see theatric but mostly useless gestures to reassure us they're "doing something".

On the other hand, some web sites sensationalize and speculate from the get-go. High end numbers are cited and thrown into the echo chamber, stats from the 1918 flu disaster are trotted out, wood cuts from medieval times get reworked into dark memes, dire but seemingly plausible rumors are passed around, the tired "bring out your dead" video clip is revived, and so forth. Unfortunately, this is different from being wrong.

Which will it be? As we say around here, a man with a watch knows what time it is. A man with two watches is never sure. You're on your own, as are we all.

Yes, Andy – we just recorded a podcast interview with John Barry yesterday.
We’re hard at work editing it and hope to publish it later today. Early tomorrow at the latest.

My husband works for a hardware spinoff of Facebook in Seattle and as of four days ago their Health and Safety Team has instituted a mandatory home isolation of two weeks symptom free for any employee returning from any Asian destination before returning to work. That would apply company wide across the world where they have offices. I imagine all those related companies Amazon, Google doing the same as so much crosstalk between the corporate giants on a human resource level. Still lots of holes in the public health system, but at least this is a step in the right direction.

Given the trajectory we’re on, I’m guessing that TPTB will use this crisis as the pretext for disrupting the electoral process, perhaps even “postponing” the November election. Anyone else pondering along these lines?

As a first responder in the SF Bay Area I am concerned about this virus. I was talking to our Emergency Medical Services Director this morning about the Corona Virus. He was in a meeting yesterday to discuss the virus. As of now(according to the doctors at the meeting), there are 6-7 potential patients of interest in California. However, the CDC protocol is not aggressive/efficient enough. If a person is suspected of Corona Virus, blood is drawn and shipped to Atlanta for testing, three days later the results come back. 3 days!!! Hopefully they are changing that.

But it’s really not the place for partisan political speculation.

The window for preparation is closing:
“We regret to inform you that we were abruptly notified of a nationwide restriction on mask orders, preventing your order from being fulfilled. Due to a significant shortage in face masks, manufacturers are restricted to reserve any remaining inventory for their hospital and surgery center customers only. Manufacturers have requested the cancellation of any mask orders placed through retailers.”
All the bulk N95 mask boxes were cleared from shelves at the local Home Depot and Lowe’s last night with only a few remaining in single mask packaging.