The coronavirus continues its spread through China and surrounding Asian countries.
The data increasingly show that this virus is wickedly contagious, especially in crowded environments where population density is high -- like the densely-packed buildings in cities.
As a frightening example: in Japan, a health worker was infected while inspecting a quarantined cruise ship, despite wearing proper PPE and taking standard precautions.
On the more positive side, we are hearing “success” stories from those who have now recovered from the virus. These are mostly folks who had less serious cases, which is around 80% of those infected.
But, on the more concerning side, evidence is showing that those who recover may not have immunity from catching the virus again. And, that a second infection could potentially result in a much more serious threat to life.
As usual, we still need more detail before drawing hard conclusions.
There are many elements still unknown about this virus – such as why the rate of spread appears much lower outside of China than within.
We remain committed to scouring the news and science wires until we have the answers.
Good video as always…What cities do you think are at highest risk? (Outside of major SE Asian cities nearest to Wuhan)
New York and LA seem like high risk US cities since these were the top 2 US cities visited by Chinese last month as part of lunar New Years seasonal travel.
OK - so we’ve seen a big increase in the official released number of infected & dead from the Wuhan coronavirus"
Infected: +14,920 (up from 45,170 yesterday)...a 33% increase
Dead: + 248 (up from 1,115 yesterday)....a 22% increase
What's the reason for the big % increase? We don't know yet. But we're looking hard for it.
Without exact knowledge, we suspect this may be related to our longstanding stated opinion that the Chinese have been underreporting all along. Perhaps now they are trying to do a little "catch up", so that by the time the world realizes the true scope of the problem, the gap between official and real numbers is a bit tighter.
UPDATE (4:34pm PT 2.12.20)
Per Worldometers (hat tip to kristen braun):
Report from Hubei: 14,840 new cases and 242 new deaths. Surge in number of cases due in most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification. In conformity with other provinces, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases. Of the 14,840 cases added, 13,332 are due to the new classification while 1,508 are new cases. There were 242 new deaths (including 135 clinically diagnosed cases). 1 new case in the UK (a Chinese national). First case in London. 1 new case in Hong Kong and 1 recovered. 3 new cases in Singapore - “While most infected patients will recover, some may become seriously ill and a small number may succumb to the infection ultimately” said the Minister for Health. Out of 50 total cases, 15 have recovered, 8 are in intensive care.
Shoot, a setback, I was hopeful the local test kits would result faster testing in the States
Coronavirus test kits need to be fixed
Coronavirus test kits shipped from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to labs across the country and around the world last week have had problems detecting the virus, the CDC said Wednesday.
During a briefing with journalists, the CDC’s Dr. Nancy Messonnier said some labs were getting “inconclusive” results from the test. As such, the test will need to be fixed.
The problem was found during initial routine run-throughs with the test to make sure it was working correctly before using it to diagnose COVID-19, as the illness is now called, in actual patients.
The issue with the diagnostic test has not been reported in all states. The Illinois Department of Public Health said Wednesday it had not experienced trouble with its test kits, and is able to move forward with testing for the coronavirus. It’s unclear how many of the test kits shipped were flawed.
All samples will also be tested at the CDC’s headquarters in Atlanta to confirm the results.
The big increase in reported cases is due to “clinically diagnosed” cases being added in the total. This news should be make some headlines but again “the flu is worse” is what I keep hearing from anyone I talk to about this
But the virus’s destructive potential has overshadowed one encouraging aspect of this outbreak: So far, about 82 percent of the cases — including all 13 in the United States — have been mild, with symptoms that require little or no medical intervention. And that proportion may be an undercount.
Health authorities managing the outbreak are trying to understand what that critical fact portends. Are the 45,000 sick people tallied so far just a portion of a vast reservoir of uncounted victims, some of whom may be spreadingthe disease? And do the mild illnesses reveal characteristics of the virus itself — something that could be useful in crafting a more effective response?
“The fact that there are so many mild cases is a real hallmark of this disease and makes it so different from SARS,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health’s Center for Health Security. “It’s also really challenging. Most of our surveillance is oriented around finding people who require medical intervention.”
For those who study viruses, the large number of mild cases is reason for optimism. “This looks to be a bad, heightened cold — I think that’s a rational way of thinking about it,” said Matthew Frieman, a virologist at the University of Maryland School of Medicine. “Not to diminish its importance — it’s in the middle between SARS and the common cold.”
Yeah I get the really bad cold theme cause fatality rate is a lot lower than SARS but it still seems like really poor comparison. I think the MSM saw that the “flu is worse than NCoV” narrative was tired and this might be their new catch phrase. I mean do colds have a 1% fatality rate or require serious/critical care 20% of time? And I also think about potential permanent lung damage, ugh horrible.
How about… if they said “Covad-19 is like a rare deadly mutated form of a cold call an adenovirus” then maybe they are closer!!! https://www.foxnews.com/story/cdc-deadly-mutation-of-common-cold-kills-10-sickens-140-in-past-18-months
The Washington Post article reminds me of that kid who brings his dad’s gun to school to show his classmates with the memorable words “Don’t worry, it isn’t loaded”.
“The Navy and Marine Corps messages, issued Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, reference an executive order directing U.S. Northern Command to implement the Department of Defense Global Campaign plan for Pandemic Influenza and Infectious Diseases 3551-13.
The document serves as the Pentagon’s blueprint for planning and preparing for widespread dispersion of influenza and previously unknown diseases.”
The bad cold comparison is not very accurate. Here are the symptoms from CDC for this corona virus.
2019 Novel Coronavirus Symptoms
For confirmed 2019-nCoV infections, reported illnesses have ranged from people with mild symptoms to people being severely ill and dying. Symptoms can include:
Fever
Cough
Shortness of breath
these are the symptoms for colds and flus.
If you have a cold, you’ll probably have symptoms like these:
So, this virus won’t be too bad for 80% but for 20% it could be life threatening without serious medical care that goes on for weeks. Then there is that inconvenient death rate. Even if it is down at 1%, who here wants to roll those dice for their kids, parents or selves?
BEIJING (REUTERS, BLOOMBERG) - The number of deaths in China's central Hubei province from a coronavirus outbreak rose by 242 to 1,310 as of Wednesday (Feb 12), the province's health commission said on its website on Thursday, but the latest figures were revised to include cases that were not lab-confirmed
The number of officially diagnosed coronavirus cases in China surged after Hubei began adding cases that were confirmed via imaging scans, alongside those confirmed with the previous method of testing kits.
In Hubei, where the pathogen originated, the number of infections rose by 14,840, with 13,332 from the new category, the province’s national health commission said in a statement on Thursday.
The death toll in Hubei rose by 242, of which 135 cases were from the new method of diagnosis, according to the statement, and 3,441 patients have been discharged from the hospital since the outbreak began.
But the 2,015 new confirmed cases reported in mainland China on Wednesday was dwarfed by the 14,840 new cases reported in Hubei alone on Thursday, after the new methodology for counting infections was adopted. The new cases include 13,332 that were confirmed via imaging scans.
Previously, only those who tested positive were counted. Now anyone whose scan shows pneumonia is classified as covid-19 infected.
I’m pretty certain that China wouldn’t shut in 90% of its economy over a bad cold.
I have no idea what the true devastation is in China, but I trust the ghost town aspects of major cities. I trust the building of massive hospital facilities. I trust the mass evacuations by various governments.
But we have to wade through daily floods of narrative control and shaping, none of which I trust.
We each have to make up our own minds as to what we trust.
So, this virus won’t be too bad for 80% but for 20% it could be life threatening without serious medical care that goes on for weeks. Then there is that inconvenient death rate. Even if it is down at 1%, who here wants to roll those dice for their kids, parents or selves?
Curious to know how American society will react to these types of numbers knowing that the virus is in their backyard. IF these numbers are true, I would wager that people would immediately freak out and stay indoors for a while hoping it burns itself out. But at some point, people need to get back to work so they trudge along playing the numbers game. I mean if you need to work you can only hide out so long. Kids could stay at home while schools are shuttered but the adults will need to get their work done. Right now, we are battling fear and anxiety of the unknown as we simply do not have the data available to us. The princess diamond ship should hopefully answer many of our questions.
