wonder what’s happening with the 250 quadrillion in derivate bets…bizarrely quiet on that front…
Lets take the very best case scenario, that china is now telling the truth and there really are no more cases. That still doesn’t put us out of the woods.
Looking at the province numbers on wuflu.live, the provinces below Hubei keep accelerating at a steady pace. The cases they report continue to increase, and the rate of increase is also still increasing. For a while it was 2 provinces with more then 1000 cases. Now there are 3 and we’re 1 bad report away from having 5.
Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand and South Korea are all also still increasing and the rate of cases continues to increase as well (the numbers of increased cases started jumping, from 2 to 3 to 5 to 8 more cases in Thailand). Japan’s real numbers are obscured now thanks to that damned ship; which is bad, because japan was leading the list with Thailand before they started adding the ship to the country’s totals.
Not to mention we’re now going to get another wave of infections between now and 3 weeks from the people who did return to work in china and infected everybody else. It’s like i’ve been saying; Communists only think in production targets. The leadership expects them to be met, the grunts expect to meet them, and everybody lies along the way.
What continues to worry me is the increase in jumps in the other provinces, despite the lock down. If anything it shows that the lock downs in other provinces aren’t doing much to stop the speed at which this is spreading.
As for the validity of those provincial numbers… they’re probably on the low end, but as long as they remain under the daily testing limit of the area; i’m willing to ascribe more value of truth to them. Once other provinces start reporting the limit of their testing capabilities all bets are off.
I can’t help but wonder if other countries are quietly quarantining infected people, without reporting it.
I keep expecting more infected outside China, but the numbers remain small.
As I have listened to many knowledgeable and sensible people on this site and elsewhere the fear factor reminds me of early attitudes during the AIDS discovery, We forget what medicine is like when a communicable disease is unknown or there is no cure. Doctors, nurses and family members have faced TB, yellow fever, black plague with common sense, courage and faith in their immune system/God/fate and/or some combo thereof. We can be thankful for our medical technology and it's help, but in the end Covid 19 may well do a blind side tackle on many of us. So, my hope is that none of us let fear cause paralysis. May we all remember the eight forms of capital as we prepare. Abe Lincoln once said, 'If I had eight hours to chop down a tree, I'd spend six hours sharpening my axe.'
Oh and i wanted to add this as well; since i just saw a SCMP news message that they’re replacing the top Hubei communist party official:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3050372/coronavirus-beijings-purge-over-virus-takes-down-top-communist
And i just wanted to say how that changes nothing. “Close ally of Xi Jinping” means “yes man”. As in, Xi tells him X, and he says Yes. He won’t say it’s unwise, or other approaches are better. You don’t become a close ally to Stalin by telling him he’s wrong. Any opposition will be seen as rivalistic and will not be tolerated. Suppose you oppose the dictator, and you turn out to be right? Can’t have that.
I would say this makes things worse, and that would be true if these new officials replaced competent officials, but no. All i’m seeing is the same bureaucrats with the same agenda, so they will make the same decisions.
New quarantines in place Georgia also https://nypost.com/2020/02/12/georgia-residents-returning-from-china-forced-into-self-isolation-over-coronavirus-fears/
Per the excerpt above that Adam linked–> Add ~13k to the daily count of cases for at least the past 15d to account for clinically diagnosed cases, that is 195k more infected… now take 2.1% of that… Now do we see the panic China has? Yep. Maybe those Tencent numbers were right. 
Cruise ship prisons… anyone think they are doing a wee bit of a transmission study there? Of note, I read that the Japanese official who was infected by monitoring the ship did not wear hazmat suit but wore other PPE. FWIW.
Study with R4.7 - 6.6 so now its unstoppable then https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf
Which demographic affected most? https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.10.20021675v1.full.pdf+html
Pollution and Infectious Disease… https://cen.acs.org/environment/persistent-pollutants/Linking-pollution-infectious-disease/97/i11
We are flat out being lied to by China and now our government is comparing a true crisis in China to the common cold, which does not typically drop into the lower lung for even half of people. The first cohort of 41 patients in December, ALL patients had pneumonia. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext “Who you gonna believe, me (CCP, CDC, WHO) or your lying eyes?”
YouTube MedCram did a interesting video today on TH1 response to virus, said SLEEP will help fight the virus. Starting a series of how to help improve sleep next. Makes sense the elderly population and sleep deprived would have harder time engaging the right immune fight, whereas children typically get the most sleep and would have the best TH1 response per his video today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqZYEgREuZ8
If anyone comes across outcomes of children, especially 5 and under or breastfeeding contributing to infant viral load/ infection like HIV does or benefit as usual, please share. Or any information about asthmatics and this virus. Thanks for all the tips along the way!
I am a taxi driver in Las Vegas, Nevada, and the sewer drains here stink like you describe. When I stop at certain lights I catch a nose full and it’s pretty bad. This could become a serious spreading mechanism once we get a significant number of cases and if the virus spreads via aerosol or smaller particles. They should drive a water tanker around filled with swimming pool water or a little stronger bleach water and kill the smells and germs.
They could increase the maintenance level too in the long run. I would like to see a study find coronavirus or other virus in that sewer smell plume coming out of the drains.
Would anyone think I’m out of the ballpark with an estimate of Chinese numbers of 1.5-2 million infected and 40K dead? Just wondering…
Yes that 60k with only about 7000 with some sort of disposition ( recovered or dead ) and 53k still sick - when you have 1400 people dead out 60000 and 53000 still sick , my guess is you will end up with nearly 9000 dead by the time there is disposition of all those cases. So 60,000 infected almost 9,000 dead. ( if all resolves out as number resolved - however that ratio has been fluid and improving towards recovery ) that does not compare to the flu, as that amount dead would be from an estimated 20 million infected not 60k
You said 82% were mild cases ( which may be ) but you said all 13 cases in the US were mild. Not so… The washington case was not mild and needed serious intervention by medical procedures and significant medications. Additionally, last week, it was anounced both of the first 2 california cases ( both husband and wife )were admitted to the hospital as serious cases. That was 3/12 at the time -that is 25% serious in the US… off the bat… and we are not done… the 13 are not recovered… serious illness is about 3 weeks out or more from infection.
That is within possibility. Just considering the flu is expected to hit 15-20% of the population annually in the US. So, considering how closely people live and associated in a city of 11 million with ZERO inherent immunity, There is no reason to not expect at least that many. If not for the draconian measures , Id expect withing 2 mos, 3 million or more infected.
I keep telling people, normally, I wouldn’t worry about this virus. I believe with access to adequate health care this is survivable for all but maybe 1% or less. The problem I see is how many this affects seriously to require that level of healthcare. I am aware that most countries could not handle the burden of a second flu mind something even slightly worse. The US is much less of a position than most countries to handle this - contrary to the average ignorant american knowing what the country is in healthcare compared to the world… SO, I offer the following chart for your consideration…
https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Health/Hospital-beds/Per-1,000-people
I am grateful to have found this source. I really appreciate the straight talk! Mentioned in this video was the unfortunate result of the attempts to make a SARS vaccine. China implemented a law requiring people to be vaccinated (not sure against what but am assuming it would be whatever baddies might be floating around at the moment). This law went into effect on Dec 1, 2019. I saw a reference to this somewhere so I googled and found this article. Just wondering if there was possibly a massive vaccination that may have made them more susceptible to this. Hard to imagine but maybe there was an unintended result? Admittedly grasping at straws but it would explain why China is getting hit so much harder. Would love to know exactly what they were being required to vaccinate against.
https://www.loc.gov/law/foreign-news/article/china-vaccine-law-passed/
This is a very important observation. And we thank you for bringing this to our attention. There are considerable studies showing vaxing and over vaxing actually impairs immunity specifically to new threats. It is possible to have more severe illness where people receive many more vaccines. I will try to source some of those studies…
Edit to original post: After speaking with my wife, she mentioned something else that may actually be more useful. What if we have a vax history on all the cases… severe and mild. I think that would be really valuable and I wonder if there is any correlation. My guess is there is a high probability on this.
This morning I went for my semi-annual dental check-up and I was super conscious about potential nCoV–er, I mean COVID-19–prevention and control. This is a busy practice with two dentists (one is the owner) and maybe 15 workers. The facility and equipment are new w/in the past 2 years, with about a dozen dental stations, separate accounting, reception and waiting areas in a modified open floor plan. Central air conditioning and heating throughout. Most of the dental stations were occupied, and there were people milling about in all areas.
Based on my many previous visits, everything looked like it was “business as usual.” Gloves and surgical masks, maybe eye protection, on when only when working on the patient’s teeth.
I’ve gone to this dental hygienist for years and we’re quite friendly and candid. I asked her if she or the staff had received any information, training or were taking special precautions due to the coronavirus. She said she had heard of it from the news, didn’t know a lot about it, but that the practice wasn’t doing anything different than normal. “Why, should I be concerned??”
I told her in low-key, simple terms about R0, lack of reliable data due to underreporting, not just a “bad flu”, known/suspected means of transmission, basic recommendations to prevent spread. I told her about CDC recommendations and procedures for health care providers (e.g., pre-screening for fever, PPE, separation from other patients, triage, referrals and testing). She was stunned, “We’re not doing any of that!”
I gave her the PP/CM website and YT addresses letting her know that this was a reliable resource used by people from all different backgrounds.
Then she shared with me that she was very concerned because her parents were flying to New Orleans this week to go to Mardi Gras then go on a cruise for their 40th wedding anniversary. =:-0 She said they had been planning this for a very long time. They planned to go with another couple, who backed-out due to concerns about the coronavirus. She said her parents are in good health and decided that they didn’t want to live in fear, so would go after all. She was aware of the cruises under quarantine, and that one ship with no suspected/confirmed nCoV cases was turned away from 5 countries.
She said she’d look into PP and other information. I know she’s very concerned for her parents, and I was sorry to add to that.
Tomorrow I think I’ll call the dentist who owns the practice and ask him what his plans are for preventing nCoV transmission and infection to his patients and staff.
A ray of sunshine, I am. :-/
Source: ADA News (2/7/2020)
CDC reminds clinicians to use standard precautions, recommends isolating patients with coronavirus symptoms
WHO declares ‘public health emergency,’ but flu remains greater threat to average Americans
“The use of standard precautions within the dental workplace and acquiring a thorough history of symptoms and potential exposure for patients is critical for dental health care professionals to maintain a healthy working environment, whether the concern is flu, 2019-nCoV or other transmissible illnesses,” said Dr. Maria Geisinger, chair of the ADA Council on Scientific Affairs. “Furthermore, postponing nonemergent dental care in individuals who are ill and proper referral for diagnosis of suspected cases of transmissible illness is a critical role that the dentist can play in reducing the spread of these dangerous diseases.”
“The CDC’s Guidelines for Infection Control in Dental Health-Care Settings—2003 [Source] notes dental health care personnel may consider postponing nonemergency or elective dental procedures until a patient is no longer contagious with diseases that can be transmitted through airborne, droplet or contact transmission.”
“If urgent dental treatment is needed and 2019-nCoV infection is confirmed or suspected, the care should be provided in a facility where there is a minimum of six air changes per hour, such as a hospital with dental care capabilities, according to the CDC. Information on respiratory protection programs is available on the Occupational Safety and Health Administration website [Source].”
“The immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general American public is considered low at this time, according to the CDC, emphasizing the flu is currently a greater threat. The CDC estimates there have been at least 22 million flu illnesses, 210,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 deaths from the flu so far this season.”
The poor results with SARS vaccines where secondary challenge frequently led to lung pathology, as Chris explained in https://youtu.be/HrqRAtViUZw, also led me to wonder whether this might be occurring in the current Chinese epidemic by secondary infections.
Today we learned from WHO that there are 4 most promising vaccines. If the SARS experience is to be seen with COVID-19 then vaccines will be useless. The monoclonal recombinant ACE2-IgG product that greendoc mentioned has led me to wonder whether the ACE2 protein could be delivered in an adeno associated virus.
Chris just covered in this video about how a trial of a SARS vaccine in animals actually activated a damaging immune response when the live SARS virus was introduced. Starts at about minute 14.
I was aware of that, “failed SARS vaccine” issue. But there are “safe vaccines” given each day including the flu that shows similar results… not so much to included strains but to a new and foreign strain. But the point is well taken and the science is the same mostly… Vaccines can actually damage the immune response. ( under or over train he immune system )
I was wondering if food services could be source of cross contamination. - I would have thought that the serving part would have been sterile, and then the retrieval of the food trays would have been as a contaminant. After seeing, an interview with the food staff, I was surprised , it would appear there is no cross contamination protocol in place… amazing.!! They should have two separate staffs handling that … and treat the retrieval as infectious. and the delivery as single delivery with no interaction. so that it will cause cross to the next delivery. I am pretty shocked - they are just spreading from room to room.