The 'End' of the Iran War, Strait of Hormuz Control, and the Yen Crisis with Mario Nawfal

Originally published at: The ‘End’ of the Iran War, Strait of Hormuz Control, and the Yen Crisis with Mario Nawfal – Peak Prosperity

This week, I was interviewed by Mario Nawfal, where we discussed the apparent “end” of the Iran conflict after Trump’s latest threats proved to be a bluff, the severe depletion of U.S. long-range precision missiles, and the dangerous collapse in oil inventories and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. We examined how Iran now holds the leverage, the unfavorable terms of a potential deal that would effectively hand Tehran control over the strait, the risks of Israeli hardliners pushing for regime change, and the parallel efforts by Saudi Arabia to contain Houthi attacks that threaten global energy flows. The conversation then turned to the broader economic fallout, including how the war has intensified Japan’s yen crisis and the unraveling of the decades-old carry trade, forcing U.S. intervention through swap lines while raising fundamental questions about the petrodollar system and America’s ability to project power.

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Iran’s PressTV published this summary of a hardline declaration by Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Zolqadr, making it plain Iran’s terms are hardening, and Iran believes it is in a position to dominate the US. This is the full article, posted here.

Hormuz will stay closed until US changes its behavior: Iran’s security chief

Saturday, 08 August 2026 2:25 PM [ Last Update: Saturday, 08 August 2026 3:21 PM ]

Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council

Iran’s top security official has reiterated that the country will not ease restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz until the United States genuinely changes its behavior toward Tehran.

Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), said in a message on Saturday that Iran’s policy to deal with the United States is to avoid any concessions that would violate the rights of the Iranian people.

“The SNSC will never back down, whether in war or in negotiations,” said Zolqadr, whose body is in charge of handling Iran’s current confrontation with the US.

Iran has imposed restrictions on transit via the Strait of Hormuz since the early days of the US-Israeli war of aggression in early March. The waterway is responsible for a fifth of global oil demand and a third of the world’s supply of fertilizers.

Zolqadr said in his message, which was specifically addressed to the Iranian media on the occasion of Journalist’s Day in the country, included six main conditions that Iran views as critical to reopening the Strait.

The conditions were for the US to refrain from threatening or insulting the sacred beliefs of the Iranian nation, a permanent end of aggression on Iran and its regional allies, lifting the naval blockade and all sanctions on the country, returning its frozen assets, and paying compensation for damage resulting from the aggression.

The SNSC chief said the conditions are in fact the demands cried out by millions of Iranians who have been on the streets to support their government and country since the start of the aggression on February 28.

Araghchi: Iran, Oman ‘very close’ to Hormuz deal; reopening depends on US complying with MoU

Araghchi: Iran, Oman ‘very close’ to Hormuz deal; reopening depends on US complying with MoU

Iran says it is very close to reaching an agreement with Oman on a new mechanism for managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian officials say the United States has violated the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) by attempting to establish new shipping routes in the strait close to Omani shores.

Under Article Five of the memorandum, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was expected to return to normal levels within one month.

While Iran implemented its end of the agreement by easing restrictions and allowing transit to return to 60 percent of normal levels within two weeks, Washington failed not only to uphold its end of the bargain but also resumed airstrikes on the country.

The Islamic Republic responded by declaring the strait closed again.

But Iran has since engaged in separate negotiations with neighboring Oman, a longtime regional mediator with close ties to both Tehran and Washington, on managing the strategic waterway.

The talks focus on establishing a new legal framework and mechanism for managing shipping through the strait, including the designation of a temporary navigation route that could serve as the basis for a permanent arrangement.

However, Iranian officials have made clear that reaching an understanding with Oman does not automatically guarantee the full reopening of the strait.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Saturday that an agreement with Oman was close but emphasized that the resumption of normal transit depends on additional conditions, primarily the US compensating Iran for its violations of the Islamabad MoU.

Similarly, Brigadier General Hossein Mohebi, spokesman for the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), also made clear that the reopening of Hormuz hinges on Washington fully accepting Tehran’s conditions and ending its interference in regional affairs.

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I sure would like to see a Journalists Day in Israel. Oh wait, they get on the news when the IDF blows them up!! :roll_eyes: :face_with_symbols_on_mouth:

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To be clear, there’s no deal to reopen the SoH with unless the US fulfills parts of MOU bargain:

https://x.com/chrismartenson/status/2086125788215066990

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Trump has really painted himself into a corner.

If he does not agree with that the American economy collapses and Trump is left holding the bag for it.

If he does agree with it, it is a Suez moment for the United States, and Trump is left holding the bag for that.

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Here we see an example of the vivid contrast between the naive optimism of youth, and the appropriately jaded view of age.

This young man is obviously highly intelligent, articulate and thoughtful, but he has not had the world bight him hard as often as Chris has.

Age that has made use of the hard lessons of life knows a restraint that youth cannot understand yet.

It’s not just the Israeli wildcard, but the possibility that Trump is a Manchurian candidate who signed on beforehand to be Herbert on steriods.

This whole energy situation along with the manipulation of oil can look like colossal failure brought on by idiotic decision making

Or,

it can look a whole lot like stretching out a situation to the a point that catastrophe cannot be avoided, and massive changes on fundamental levels of life can be forced through on a world population in no position to resist.

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All for a war that should have never been started by the same guy that was going to end the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours and forever end, the forever wars.

Ergo, Mr. Smith goes to Washington part deux.

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