Respected bullion dealer Kronwitter in Germany has actually closed it’s website for a few days. All there is posted now, is a message that, due to “the enormous amount of orders” they won’t take any new orders at all. Another well known German dealer, Proaurum, literally doesn’t have a single gold or silver item available. They are completely sold out. I’ve never seen this before. Gold and silver at getting scarce over here.
[quote=Erik] Those of us who have followed your work for a long time are already bought in to the idea that the U.S. is headed for economic collapse unless things change that are unlikely to change. It’s what happens after the collapse that worries me the most.
Best,
Erik [/quote]
Agreed. And trying to anticipate the various “likely” (?!) scenarios, and plan accordingly, is daunting. Especially with the knowledge that the potential outcome scenarios vary widely, and a satisfactory approach to preparing for one (e.g., “simple” economic hardship => plant gardens, raise chickens and goats, etc.) may be totally inadequate in preparing for another (hard crash, social chaos and anarchy => ???). I think building community is an excellent idea, and the most positive solution to strive for. But I personally feel reality may not be so civilized in the scenario it dishes out…
This all while balancing a “normal” life in the meantime!
Thank you, Dr. M., for the article. I appreciate the “boring” advice because at times I start to lose my nerve and am tempted to sink back into the blissful haze of ignorance for which I pine at times.
Why does it look like you will be holding onto your PMs for a long time if the system is ready to blow? Some people are saying that a crash could happen in an instant and the whole ponzi paper money game would be gone. Print, print, print, and then POOF! Do you think the DTDT (Donkeys That Decide Things) have a plan now or are working on one in case that happens and that they would get another money system up and running in a few months? How long could we barter and freak out and hoard things without some “official arrangement” materializing?
To me, it seems like we already have a one world currency since all the countries are forced to bail out Greece and that we just have different names for it. They are all pretty close in value give or take a few cents up or down and they are all getting hacked up into little pieces. It’s not like 1 buck is worth 50 euros or something like that. So, they will set up another system and it will take a while for confidence to develop but then we will trade in our PMs for it. It might not take that long. (I know this is very simplistic and I hope all the financial people on here don’t totally hammer me!)
There are several examples of powerful military nations spending themselves into bankruptcy. Rome (debasement) and Spain (multiple defaults) come to mind.
I see many (potential) parallels to Rome with currency debasement and a reluctance of (decent) people to enter politics, but we don’t have barbarians at the gate (or maybe we do with Islamic Fascists!). I find Spain fascinating because it too had an innate belief it was a “chosen” nation, favored by God, worldwide military empire, exported all its internal industry to other countries (like England – that rising mercantile power).
Sound familiar?
In the long-term, I’m hopeful for the US. I don’t see a breakup. Land-attack by other countries is not a threat. Sea attack is virtually impossible. It’s possible, even likely there will be spots of internal conflict at the height, but I see them more as local riots than revolution.
Erik,
I think you already know the two options, neither of which is under control of the hoi polloi. First, the U.S. decides to take what we need…oil, food, etc., and/or remove the WMD threat from Iran, diverting our citizens to war number three for a while.
The second option is Argentina a la Ferfal…we crunch along with saw-tooth graph structural problems…we lose the grid occasionally and electric rates go up, there is food at much higher prices, gas and oil are available for $$$, crime is up and daily life becomes stressful and exciting, sophisticated medical care gets dicey, infrastructure continues to degrade, public services become spotty, and life generally degrades for the non-wealthy into coping with uncertainty and diminished resources. Greece is showing us the future, similar to Argentina. I suspect that such real-life examples of complex modern developed countries failing are better models for collapse than ancient empires.
How uncivil do people get with 300 milion firearms.? No one knows.
SG
I think ultimately it’ll boil down to who goes off the cliff first. If Mr. Thurston Howell, III is wrong, and China implodes I think the ratio of masses:leaders will avert a nuclear Holocaust. If the Third is right I think it could be a mess because of the oil demand they will impose.
Thanks Chris for another “nail biter”! The word “consistent” comes to mind much more so than “boring”!! I’ll leave the boring category for the “status quo” viewpoint … and that really is boring.
I will be able to use some of your comments tonight during our Groveland Crash Course discussion period as we begin a new CC series of “The World through the Chris Martenson lens”.
Coop
Erik
I agree with capesurvivor (post 24), the best picture we are likely to get is from the book Surviving The Ecomonic Collapse by Fernando “Ferfal” Aguirre. He lived through the currency collapse of Argentian that started in 2001 and the effects continue to this day. Pardon me if this is widely known at this site, but I’m new here and can’t read all the old post.s
He also has a web site. http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2009/02/social-collapse-best-practices.html
You should also check out Dmitry Orlov who lived through the collapse of the Soviet Union and has detailed the results. He is widely cited on Google, but here is a good start.
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/47157
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2009/02/social-collapse-best-practices.html
I too would like to know Chris’ thoughts about how this plays out longer term, but I find his current comments invaluable in guiding us through events as they occur. It is challenging on a site like this to balance the needs of old and new members. However, I agree that more thoughts about what comes later would be helpful
Hi Travlin,
Yes, I’m familiar with both Orlov and Aguirre, and I also have some reasonably well developed opinions of my own on the subject. However, I find that Chris has a superhuman ability to connect the dots and distill a message in a way that really makes sense.
I agree completely that the primary focus should remain on exactly the level that this post was written - to appeal to those not yet acquainted with Chris’ work. But for those of us who have been following it for years (I’m just coming up on 2 years myself), I think there’s a lot of interest on Chris’ take on those subjects we’ve already read Orlov and Aguirre’s views on.
In particular, Orlov has written primarily about what the Soviet collapse was like, and Aguirre has similarly written about Argentina. But frankly, the U.S. is a whole different enchilada. The dynamics are completely different and a different outcome should be expected because although the U.S. has fiscal problems just as big as those countries had, it also has a fully capable military whose power is unmatched. To me that spells a very different outcome and I’d be particularly keen to read a piece by Chris laying out the range of possibilities and, in particular, signs to watch for that will help predict what direction this will take.
Best,
Erik
I agree with you Erik on this. Guns and the Military are game changers for the U.S. People get angry when they are hungry. I am hoping that they all go to the FEMA camps.LOL! People that talk about community are I think most right in their thoughts of surviving this is key. I too would like to hear what Chris has to say.
Let’s hope the old saying that ‘An armed society is a polite society’ is true. If so, it should be really polite in the US in coming years.
Tim
I actually think it will be safer than it would be without the gun owners. After all, most people who own guns do so because they care about their own safety or hunt and know that they may have to handle issues on their own. Many of those will be the same people who are prepared for disasters or at least understand the government or public services may not always be available. But I suspect we are going to find out and then you will get your answer since we have countries with and without gun ownership to compare when TSHTF.
Chris,
You talk about buying gold to preserve wealth but it’s done a lot more than that, since you started to give this boring advice. Your wealth will have quadrupled (before adjusting for inflation). How is that “preservation”? Do you see the future as one of survival or as business as usual, where preserving one’s wealth is a way to keep enjoying the same standard of living?
Surely, there must be a better way to invest in our own futures than simply quadrupling our personal worth, as measured in monetary terms? Invest in hand tools, manual skill sets, a property better able to support you, and so on. Why are you fixated on treading water in terms of wealth (even though your advice has a very different effect)?
When do you start on your declared new tack of preparing for a very different future?
Tony
My guess is that the US gov’t’s first priority, in the event oil nations start restricting our supplies in a militant way, is to secure sources and supply lines of oil. I think the US military is quite capable of doing that, but the long term consequences could be self defeating. And, once peak oil becomes clear to the public, concerns about environmental consequences will be seen as antiquated silly notions, and we will drill everywhere all the time. Sarah Palin’s and Dick Cheney’s dreams will come true.
Doug
I seem to be missing the egyptian/pirate/Scrooge McDuck gene that gets people excited to horde gold. I am honestly not interested in hording anything. But I agree with Chris that paper is doomed. So my question is, what physical assets besides gold/silver can I get into that others haven’t piled into already? I am interested in things that are useful for reasons other than being shiny. Does anyone here buy copper? (I know the penny is now worth 2 cents in melt value and you can buy copper bullion on ebay) What about things that are not traded as ETFs and therefore do not have big speculative bets on them already. I have heard there are some metals (I think tungsten was one) where there aren’t a lot futures contracts on them. What about lithium? I read that there is not enough to power a new world fleet of electric vehicles.
If things fall apart as we all see them doing. I simply do not see everyone in modern times agreeing that whoever digs up the most yellow metal is the country that is the new world superpower. It seems to me things like land and energy will be far more valuable than soft, yellow metal.
Hi Erik
I appreciate your reply. You make a good point about moving to the next level of discussion, particularly for older members. Since I have a wife and two kids I tend to focus on the personal level. You seem to be looking for Chris’ thoughts about the big picture of geo-political-military affairs. That’s a huge subject, and I sure don’t know what’s coming.
I’ve studied world military history from ancient times to the present. In the late 1970s I became aware of the US military’s plans to become a high-tech force that could use the “automated battlefield” any place in the world to support our economic dominance. By the 1980s we had some kind of military mission established in nearly every country in the world of any size. I was still surprised recently to learn that the US military budget is greater than all the rest of the world’s combined. So much for the “peace dividend” from the fall of the Soviet Union. Since we aren’t likely to be invaded by Canada, or Mexico (not by their army anyway), the only justification for that kind of spending is to be able to guarantee access to dwindling resources in a “last man standing” scenario. I’m half way through Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet, by Michael Klare and there are many other books that cover this topic if you are not already familiar with them.
My only firm conclusion is that this force will be used if needed to secure resources, and since wars never go as planned it will get very ugly and go on much longer than anyone expects. But anyone who has followed the news the last nine years knows that. I think it is likely that the military option could come before economic collapse to try to stave it off. That would be a delicate balancing act. If it scares the rest of the world, they sell dollars and we just assured our collapse. On the other hand, the world might see this as making the US economy the last refuge for investments.
On the economic crises and ramifications I’m late to the game. As I am rushing to research this I feel events are moving faster than me (Greece, the euro) and I’ll have to make decisions before I understand things as much as I need to. What is truly scary though is how most people don’t even know what’s happening. I’m getting the impression that more of them are feeling a deepening unease. To quote Bob Dylan, “You know that something’s happening, but you don’t know what it is. Do you Mr. Jones?”
This site and the forums have been a big help and I appreciate everyone’s efforts and thoughts.
Chris,
This may be a dumb question, but accepted “wisdom” seems to be that federal debt reaching 140% of GDP is a disaster. OK, but if actual debt to GDP is around 900% right now (I deleted household and business) how does this illusion keep going? I mean if 140 is seriously bad mojo, I would think 200 would be nothing but wreckage. And 900 wouldn’t even be wreckage, just ashes. Why are things still “standing” at all, as it were?
Joelandsonia said “It’s possible, even likely there will be spots of internal conflict at the height, but I see them more as local riots than revolution”.
The key word is local here! As global systems disintegrate and cause and effect come full circle, the train comes to a grinding halt and all must disembark. It will most likely cause nations to turn inward and erect old physical and virtual barriers again like we had them since time memorial. The ever expanding array of security measures and punitive restrictions on both US and non-US citizens traveling to the USA, for better or worse are a perfect example in case. However, this does not exclude the possibility that nations used to having their way and living the … dream, may well find themselves forced, if only through the view of their leaders, to take expansionistic action in order to maintain what is effectively a bankrupt way of life.
Fact is that what you can access from within your immediate vicinity will carry the day. A good example is Marqt, a supermarket in Amsterdam where: " my grandmother can understand what’s written on the labels, no product is obtained from further then 24 hours transport away and the (growth) seasons define your choice to a large extend.
Winston Churchill had it right when he mentioned that mankind needs a good war every 50 years or so. We just do not seem to learn any other way and force ourselves back to a local level time and again, whether we like it or not.
With kind regards,
FJ
The way I see it is that people are kept intentionally in the dark. See the “Fuzzy Numbers” chapter of the Crash Course. If you don’t know something bad is happening, how can you be angry about it? You have less money, less jobs and stuff, but you just say to yourself “That’s just how things are” and move on, just like a dog that survives after being hit by a car
Samuel
[quote=Erik T.]
Chris,
Great read as always. And you know I’ll always be a huge fan.
But honestly, I think it’s time to move beyond this analysis and start to consider the potential conclusions to this mess. Everything you say here is spot on. But it’s also (as you acknowledge yourself in the first paragraph) old news to everyone who’s been following your writing for a while.
…
I know that this particular piece is appearing in the public blog and on FinancialSense, so I think it is perfectly written for its intended audience of relative newcomers to your work. But I hope that over in the subscriber area you’ll write about potential outcomes after the financial collapse. Those of us who have followed your work for a long time are already bought in to the idea that the U.S. is headed for economic collapse unless things change that are unlikely to change. It’s what happens after the collapse that worries me the most.[/quote]
I wrote that hoping to inspire Chris to expand his scope and start writing more about potential outcomes in the enrolled member area in coming months.
Not months, not weeks, not days, but hours later, Chris penned an absolutely outstanding piece - arguably more complete than this one - on the Martenson Insider (the premium blog for enrolled members), addressing exactly the scenarios I queried about. Wow, Chris. Just Wow!
You guys who are not yet enrolled members have no idea what you’re missing. I just love this site!
Erik