The Financial Crisis Is Far From Over

Hi ao

But I think you overestimate the value of dividends
Check out the returns +/- divis for the US stock market over the 20th century;

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/files/dimson_elroy.png

I think inflation over the same period was around 50X. Dimson and colleagues are academics not wall street propaganda merchants. Also it’s not that hard to do some back-of-the-envelope calculations for yourself based on average dividends and market cap numbers. I take your comment about shrinking divis but this seems to have happened more in the US than where I invest in the UK. I think it’s to do with more earnings being retained, a practice that some find OK but I’m always a bit sceptical about. Payment of divis keeps at least some honesty in company accounting!

Also, I don't think anyone has said "This time it's different" with gold
If collapse of the worlds major currencies through hyperinflation isn't different then I'm not sure what is ;-) Admittedly not everyone is saying that will happen but there are some. I'd be interested in your indicators for gold, I've sold a bit recently into strength but am happy to always hold onto a minimum holding given the awful debt situation and still crazy level of house prices (which most of the debt is based on) here in the UK.

I agree rare earth equities could be an interesting play. The other one I like is  Cameco, the big uranium miner - I just can’t see us not turning more and more to nuclear in the future as FF’s decline. It has its risks but in the end it will be about keeping the lights on.

piquod,

Being in the UK vs. the US is certainly a consideration favoring your position.  While I’m well aware of the data favoring dividend paying stocks over the long term, in a commodity secular cycle, the data also shows they will underperform (as the recent decade has shown).  We may be in different phases of our investment lifecycle as well.  In my phase, I’m more interested in capital preservation than appreciation.  I have what I need and just want to hang on to it.  Equities have gone to zero while gold never has.  I’ll risk a loss vs. a wipe-out.      

[quote=Denny Johnson]With logic like that…it’s easier to understand your ignorant criticism of Chris.[/quote]Well, when you have no income, logic tends to get a bit skewed. Reading it again, I agree with you. But my criticisms (which are not ignorant criticisms) of Chris still stand. He’s not a messiah and doesn’t have a monopoly on the right approach to all this.

On the subject of gold, I just want to reiterate that it is a gamble. This has to be born in mind.
Matt Savinar has been going on about gold for more than five years and those who followed his advice and retained what they purchased will no doubt have a smile on their faces. However, I remember a fairly long period when gold nudged 1000 dollars only to dip to the low 800s (if I recall correctly) and took a while to get back up. Those who bought at 1000, would have seen a substantial devaluation for a while.

As others have said, that wealth has to be translated into stuff of real value for surviving what we face. If you were looking to cash in at the time the gold price slipped by 20%, it might not have looked like a good investment.

Long term (provided it’s not too long) it seems like a good bet but, like all gambles, you have to be prepared to lose some or all of your investment (all of it only if conditions don’t allow you to retrieve your gold or don’t allow you to exchange it for something useful).

As I’ve said, government guaranteed deposit accounts is a reasonably good way of retaining wealth, provided you’re not looking to make a killing. Why is gold a better way?

Tony

Why is Gold a better way? Well you might remember from the Crash Course that our currency here in the United States was backed by Silver and Gold originally as meant by the founding fathers. Read some of Paine’s thoughts here http://mises.org/daily/2942. So basically the Banksters have taken the (real wealth) and given you paper promises that can never realistically be repaid at the original value. Fiat currency is perpetually declining in terms of valuation and also on a hockey stick graph of doom like many of the key concepts of the Crash Course. If one thinks the Indians got a good deal trading glass beads for farmland, I guess this little tactic the Bankers used is swell. For more information besides the Crash Course on this subject I would recommend “The Creature from Jekyll Island” by Edward Griffin, “End the Fed” by Ron Paul, or the Aaron Russo Documentary “America, From Freedom to Fascism”. If you want to gamble with being totally in fiat money “Gauranteed by the Government”, that might pay off at any time, or it might destroy your wealth like it has so many previous times in places like Argentina, France, Germany, etc. Who is really gambling? Gold and Silver arent going to Zero as Votaire stated concerning fiat currency (See the Crash Course).

Oh if you think I’m all about Gold and Silver, I’m not. I’ve been stocking up on many supplies and have recently purchased an old farmhouse, with acreage, fruit trees, fire wood, barn, and berries and herbs. Most of us are getting ready here, these things take time and dont happen over night. Dont jump to conclusions about everyone being gold grubbing fat cats.

Dr. Martenson pushes the three E’s. Very few, if any people have linked these together like Dr. M. I have been a member here for quite a while and dont really get too involved. I think posing your Messiah delimma was nothing short of inflammatory. I’m sorry youre broke, please move on and take the troll bait with you.

 

Government guaranteed deposit accounts?  What on Earth are you talking about?  

Other than Swiss Annuity Certificates, I couldn’t possibly have any faith in any government paper whatsoever.  As for “government guaranteed”, that “guarantee” is as laughable as any other promise made by government.  In the US for instance, so-called TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) are supposed to adjust with inflation so that investors are “protected”.  However, the inflation rate is defined and measured however the government wants to.  Do you really believe the government is going to be unbiased in its measurement of inflation knowing that the amount of interest they have to pay on TIPS, and nevermind inflation tied entitlements such as social security and medicare, are all directly proportional to whatever inflation number they spit out?  Of course not!  Governments will lie, cheat, and steal from their citizens anytime they have to and always have.  

Gold is the only monetary instrument they cannot dilute, degrade, or pervert.  Of course everyone should do their research regarding apropriate entry points, but I’ll take it any day over government issued paper (with Swiss Annuity Certificates being the only other possible contender).  The only thing they might try to do is take it by force, but if that’s the case, nothing else will be safe and everything else will have already been confiscated anyway.

PS:  “Government Guarantee” is kinda like saying “lush desert” - the words just do not go together and cannot be believed.

 

sofistek,
Gosh, now that I really think about it, I see that you’re right! Government guaranteed bonds - now why the heck didn’t I and all the rest of these neophytes who focus on gold think of that? Thanks for sharing your wise and sage insights!

And it gets even better - I just checked around and found out that the interest rates you can get on some of these government guaranteed bonds are really high right now. In fact, some of the Greek sovereign bonds are now yielding upwards of 10%!!! And they’re fully guaranteed by the full faith and backing of the Greek government to boot!

Sofistek, I know a broker I can introduce you to if you want to move all your life’s savings into high-yielding Greek treasury bonds. Seems like the opportunity of a lifetime! I think you should jump on it while you can still get these great rates!!!

Erik

The goldbugs are the whiners, or is that the “winners”?
Hell, even JAG, the “gold makes you crazy” guy, owns physical gold and has profited from Dr.M’s  recommendations. Don’t tell anyone one though, he would hate for that to get out.

 

EVERY investment or insurance (which is how I view gold) is a gamble including your government guaranteed deposit accounts.  Those accounts can be frozen in the event of banking “holidays”, confiscated in the event of a national or global emergency, borrowed from by changes in government policies, debased by inflation, destroyed by hyperinflation, stolen by electronic thieves, etc.

Also, anyone who is familiar with the gold market realizes that gold is volatile.  They are not going to turn cash that they’ll need in the short term into bullion.  They might have a trading position in PMs but they will definite have physical PMS that they’ll hold long term.

Furthermore (boy, I understand how Erik and Davos can get frustrated), NO ONE who has half a brain and a reasonable amount of assets is going to put EVERYTHING they have into gold and not have some readily available cash, food, seeds, tools, fuel, guns, ammo, and other SHTF items available.

If you’ve watched the CC and read the many, many posts here about gold and you’re still wondering why you should have any of your assets in gold, then you’re beyond my level of patience to deal with and will be unlikely to change your mind regardless of the evidence you are presented with.  That’s just the way it is.  Some folks are not psychologically geared for gold ownership and that’s OK … if you’re willing to take that gamble.

   

Erik
I understand your frustration and agree with your assessments of the ingrates on this site. However, not all of us here are ungrateful to Dr. Martenson and others who have helped enlighten us economic neophytes. I, for one, am extremely grateful, but unfortunately and with much regret have discontinued my subscription. This was not because the value wasn’t there; on the contrary this was probably the best money I’ve ever spent. But after having seen the economic dilemna, I chose to divert all resources to preparation. I am of humble means with a family to support. In a way, Dr. M was a victim of his own success in sounding the alarm (at least for my $30/ mo.) I write this to beseech you to reconsider your decision to reduce your contributions to this site. Many of the silent majority appreciate and value the contibutions that you and others make. The knowledge that you have come to possess may seem run-of-the-mill to guys like you but to me, and I’m sure others, it is priceless. Where can we go to get real info and trustworthy analysis? Maybe the mainstream media? Ohhh yeeeaah, Cramer here I come.

Thanks to you and to all who post on the public site here. Especially to the handful who form the core of contributors.

 

To me, this site is a form of preparation.  Dr. M’s insights and experiences help me form my own course of action.  IMO, $30 a month is a bargain!  But ALL investments are a personal choice.  
 

The U.S. economy has begun to climb out of the worst downturn since the 1930 Great Depression but still needs additional steps by the federal government to stem a crisis in the job market, a senior economic adviser to President Barack Obama said on Sunday.

Christina Romer
Yuri Gripas | AFP | Getty Images
Christina Romer

“What we need now is not the withdrawal of support, but further targeted actions that will help the private sector back more strongly,” Christina Romer, chairwoman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said in prepared remarks for a commencement ceremony at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, Virginia.

Text of Romer’s remarks was made available in Washington.

“I worry that policymakers may take the return of growth as license to withdraw the support that has been essential to the recovery,” she said.

Romer urged Congress to a pass a series of measures Obama has proposed to jump-start growth, including the establishment of a lending fund to spur credit to small businesses and providing cash-strapped cities and states with aid to help them avoid layoffs of teachers and other local employees.

With the U.S. unemployment rate just under 10 percent, the Obama administration is juggling the need to spur economic growth with pressure to rein in ballooning U.S. budget deficits.

Obama has named a bipartisan fiscal commission that will report back by December 1 with recommendations for curbing the deficit, which is projected to hit $1.6 trillion this year.

The latest government report on the job market showed employers added 290,000 jobs in April, a stronger-than-expected pace that suggested the economic recovery was gaining steam. But the jobless rate ticked up two tenths of a percentage point to 9.9 percent as discouraged workers began looking for work again.

“The economy is unquestionably on the right trajectory,” Romer said in her speech. “But, while the economy is recovering, it has not yet recovered.”

“For the millions of Americans still waiting to be rehired – still struggling to provide for their families and make their mortgage payments without a job – this remains an economic crisis.”

Romer, an expert on the Great Depression, used much of her speech to compare the current economic crisis to the long downturn of the 1930s.

She said that Obama once called her his “Frances Perkins,” a reference to President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s secretary of Labor and the first woman to serve in the Cabinet.

Romer said there have been parallels between Obama’s economic response to that of Roosevelt but said that was less the result of a deliberate effort but instead was because “we were facing similar problems and shared similar core values.”

She credited Obama’s policies, such as enacting the $787 billion economic stimulus program in 2009, with helping to prevent a second Great Depression.

Romer said that, like Roosevelt, Obama recognized the economic crisis called for an “all-out policy response” but she described the current president’s policies as more “market-oriented” than those of Roosevelt."

Republicans have sharply criticized the stimulus package, calling it an example of overreach by the government and contending that it failed to do enough to spur jobs growth.

Markets getting off to a bad start in Asia right now…

Sofistek,
In all honesty, I don’t care whether you’re a paying member or not.  It’s your choice.  But after reading your most recent posts, I think you’re logic is extremely lacking.  Maybe you’re ONLY preparing for an absolute TOTAL collapse of civilization, as that’s what I’m gathering from your attitude toward current/future investment of funds.  I don’t think anyone on here is thinking that there’s going to be a “Mad Max” scenario (although I do think it’s possible).  With this, investing in Gold/Silver to “keep what I have” is wise.  I think you’re idea of “keep what I have” is that I want to keep my flat screen TV’s, Porche, and Mansion.  Not so.  What I want to keep is the ability to buy/barter/negotiate for goods that will be needed to survive WHATEVER the future holds!  Government Backed Savings Accounts won’t exactly do that…duh.  

But in all reality, I could give a rats ass as to what YOU think or are doing.  Unfortunately (or fortunately, however you look at life), human nature is that the strong overcome the weak.  IMO, you’re in the class of the latter, not the former.    

[quote=Montana Native]If you want to gamble with being totally in fiat money “Gauranteed by the Government”, that might pay off at any time, or it might destroy your wealth like it has so many previous times in places like Argentina, France, Germany, etc. Who is really gambling?[/quote]Both are gambles, I don’t deny it. However, without societal and economic collapse, a government backed deposit scheme seems pretty safe. The same could be said of gold, though speculation can make it rise and fall., so gold seems to me to be more of a gamble (though one that is paying off right now). After collapse, can you get your hands on that gold? Will you be able to exchange it for what you need? Same questions for the deposit scheme, of course.[quote=Montana Native]Oh if you think I’m all about Gold and Silver, I’m not. I’ve been stocking up on many supplies and have recently purchased an old farmhouse, with acreage, fruit trees, fire wood, barn, and berries and herbs. Most of us are getting ready here, these things take time and dont happen over night. Dont jump to conclusions about everyone being gold grubbing fat cats.[/quote]That wasn’t really my point, by a long way. But I’m glad you’re preparing in a practical manner.[quote=Montana Native]I think posing your Messiah delimma was nothing short of inflammatory.[/quote]I’m sorry if it came across that way. Perhaps the terminology was a bit too strong but I was just pointing out that we all need to continue to think critically, no matter who the messenger is. Chris has done a fantastic job with the crash course and other analyses of our predicament (and rightly called it a “predicament”), but that doesn’t mean everything he says is automatically right. The gushing praise that typified the first few pages of the comments on this article could be a sign that many people have come to simply accept whatever Chris says. I might be wrong on that, in which case I apologise, but I like to see some testing of what he says, from time to time.

[quote=Farmer Brown]Government guaranteed deposit accounts?  What on Earth are you talking about? [/quote]I live in New Zealand. During the early days of this recession, our government introduced an insurance scheme that guaranteed deposits up to a certain amount and effectively forced banks to pay a premium for insurance beyond that level (I can’t remember the level but it is a fair size, maybe quarter of a million). All major banks, and others, signed up to the scheme, so you couldn’t lose your money (though societal collapse may change that picture, as it will change all pictures). I know at least some other contries have similar schemes. So a savings account is a way of retaining wealth, unless inflation rises faster than the interest rate.[quote=Farmer Brown]Governments will lie, cheat, and steal from their citizens anytime they have to and always have.  
Gold is the only monetary instrument they cannot dilute, degrade, or pervert.[/quote]Really?[quote=Farmer Brown]The only thing they might try to do is take it by force, but if that’s the case, nothing else will be safe and everything else will have already been confiscated anyway.[/quote]There’s my answer. Governments can take your gold (didn’t they do it once before?). This makes it no different from other forms of wealth but that kind of makes my point.

[quote=Erik T.]Gosh, now that I really think about it, I see that you’re right! Government guaranteed bonds - now why the heck didn’t I and all the rest of these neophytes who focus on gold think of that? Thanks for sharing your wise and sage insights![/quote]I din’t say “bonds”, Erik. But your post is really funny, if I had done.

I live in New Zealand. During the early days of this recession, our government introduced an insurance scheme that guaranteed deposits up to a certain amount and effectively forced banks to pay a premium for insurance beyond that level (I can't remember the level but it is a fair size, maybe quarter of a million). All major banks, and others, signed up to the scheme, so you couldn't lose your money (though societal collapse may change that picture, as it will change all pictures). I know at least some other contries have similar schemes. So a savings account is a way of retaining wealth, unless inflation rises faster than the interest rate.

 

Yeah, that exists in the US as well, it's called the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation).  First of all, it's not a corporation.  It's a government insurance scheme to insure bank deposits up to $100,000.  They charge the banks premiums just like in NZ, apparently.  Simple math will tell you that it is impossible for the fund to actually be able to cover 100% of the accounts (even only up to $100K).  Moreover, in a severe downturn, which is when the funds insurance is most likely to be tapped, the amount of losses overwhelms the system.  In the US, the FDIC is broke and I suspect it won't be long before they stop insuring deposits or they start writing IOUs from other government entities to cover the losses.  
There's my answer. Governments can take your gold (didn't they do it once before?). This makes it no different from other forms of wealth but that kind of makes my point.
They'll take your "government insured" funds before they take your gold.  Anyway, I'm not saying buy gold and forget everything else.  Of course practical measures come first.  However, there are only a certain amount of shovels, seeds, productive farmland and goats any one person or a family can need.  What does one do with excess funds beyond that?  

 

[quote=ao]Furthermore (boy, I understand how Erik and Davos can get frustrated), NO ONE who has half a brain and a reasonable amount of assets is going to put EVERYTHING they have into gold and not have some readily available cash, food, seeds, tools, fuel, guns, ammo, and other SHTF items available.[/quote]I agree. However, Chris article says that gold is his preferred way of preserving his wealth. How does putting, say, 5% of your “wealth” into gold preserve your wealth?[quote=Farmer Brown]If you’ve watched the CC and read the many, many posts here about gold and you’re still wondering why you should have any of your assets in gold, then you’re beyond my level of patience to deal with and will be unlikely to change your mind regardless of the evidence you are presented with.[/quote]I understand why Chris advises getting into gold. It seems perfectly reasonable. My comment was more about the notion of preserving wealth, when preparations seem to be more called for. Real wealth is in your skills, knowledge and abilities. But we should all be growing those, not preserving a proxy for them.

uh, I didn’t write that, but I don’t mind being misquoted in this case!