Dimitri Orlov pointed out that the most fuel efficient vehicle on a miles per gallon per capita, is actually a pickup truck full of people standing in the back, commonly used in rural Mexico.
Again. Not a recommendation.
Cute photos -- not sure how you think this translates to here. Not one of those is safe or humane and certainly wouldnt work on freeways we have ! Completely illegal and unsafe ideas are not viable alternatives
When energy becomes scarce, safety, illegality, and the definition of humane will become much more fluid. What you see now with modern cars zipping around on a freeway is just a temporary illusion of prosperity brought on by cheap oil as is the illusion of government provided safety via laws and regulation.
My city has been for years a happy motoring place and a bane to cyclists. When gas prices spiked about 10 years ago the city decided to change. They created a bike access planner for the traffic and streets division. Now we have over 300 miles of paths and lanes. There was some resistance to losing traffic lanes but not enough to slow down the relentless reworking of our streets and abandoned rail lines. There is now a direct dedicated run across the county connecting 2 major bedroom communities with the city and a dedicated 3 mile path over a major river. Bike trailers are great for kids and groceries. Electrics are popping up-28mph is decent speed on two wheels. The best part is the number of disability electric scooters I see on the way to the grocery. All our buses can carry 3 or 4 bikes on front mounted racks.
This city has never been wealthy, but it has a future. It’s assets are lots of water, both potable and for freight. Plenty of rail lines for freight which have yet to be utilized for personal travel. Lots of cheap housing and now a decent bike access system. A gas fired electric plant and good weather and land for local agriculture top off the list. I’m hoping that we can support more than our current 10 or so farmer’s markets as things progress.
This place was founded before cars and will be able to function at some smaller and slower level after cars.
You can tow a trailer behind an electric bike.
So much for the economic polyanas’ argument that increases in efficiency will offset declines in available energy…
I’d place my bets on a global collapse before an oil shock. The last 16 years of false flag Muslim “terrorist attack” hoaxes have been done for a reason, to incite anti-Muslim phobia and condition the public to support a war against the Middle East.
For years analysts have been pointing out the supply / demand imbalance of gold and that it will at some point run out. It’s a mystery how it’s lasted so long.
We have an historic debt and financial bubble that will in some way need to pop.
We have had our constitutional rights taken away from us. We don’t notice it yet because it isn’t really being exercised. Just wait until it IS exercised…
All of these things would be nicely dealt with by a good war.
Expect a major 9/11-type false flag event to justify a real war centered around the Middle East, which will then provide the cover to take down the financial system along with what remains of our democracies and constitutions, and freedom of speech. Already Youtubers who expose the “terrorist attack” hoaxes are being deleted; Peekay Truth was a good one and he has been banned.
This discussion reminded me of a brief video of a guy moving a refrigerator on his bicycle...
I cannot recommend this mode of transportation for heavy appliances, however, unless one's medical insurance is paid up.
https://www.facebook.com/tastethelemon/videos/260959977691712/?pnref=story
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Dimitri Orlov pointed out that the most fuel efficient vehicle on a miles per gallon per capita, is actually a pickup truck full of people standing in the back, commonly used in rural Mexico.
Again. Not a recommendation.
Yes, putting more people in a vehicle works better for hauling children, groceries, long distance and hills !
And, I thought we were talking NOW not post cllapse ! Right NOW people cannot go use a moped, at least not around here. POST COLLAPSE anyone living where I do will not commute anywhere daily, period.
This discussion reminded me of a brief video of a guy moving a refrigerator on his bicycle...
I cannot recommend this mode of transportation for heavy appliances, however, unless one's medical insurance is paid up.
https://www.facebook.com/tastethelemon/videos/260959977691712/?pnref=story
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Dimitri Orlov pointed out that the most fuel efficient vehicle on a miles per gallon per capita, is actually a pickup truck full of people standing in the back, commonly used in rural Mexico.
Again. Not a recommendation.
The moped examples shown earlier where India, indonesia, philipines or similar. Your example of the truck is more like what could work where I am, Hills and Mountains, longer distances, there is a reason all these people are in the Truck and not on a bunch of mopeds !
Back in 2008 I was living in a rural area where I had to put 18000 miles a year on my car just to commute back and forth to work and to get to a grocery store. I was also PO aware at the time, and like most other POers, expecting gas to go to 5$ a gallon, and expecting oil to start becoming cripplingly scarce.
To increase my situational resilience, I purchased a used 250cc honda scooter, got a motorcycle driver’s license endorsement so I could legally drive the thing, and outfitted the scooter with storage boxes. By some means the experiment was a success – with cold weather gear I was able to use it about 7.5 months for about 10-12k miles a year, and was able to get about 75MPG. When gas shot up to $3.50 a gallon more often than not I would get into scooter conversations with envious car drivers when re-filling at gas stations. The main state-wide paper even put me on the front page of a Sunday edition during the height of gas spike, as an example of how one person worked to reduce gas expenses/carbon footprint.
I used the scooter for groceries, commuting, and even laundry on one occasion. I could strap a guitar on back and ride to musical social occasions. I could even operate it reasonably safely on freeways, as it maxed out at about 70MPH.
There were tradeoffs: Scooters need more maintenance, and there were no nearby mechanics who knew my scooter, so I had to learn to do a lot of the maintenance myself, which took time, money and effort. While my experiment lasted for a little over 3 years, I never crashed while on it, but I did experience a close call or two. The things are dangerous even if you are careful in your riding habits.
My ultimate resilience-building action however was to move to a small walkable city, where I can make do using my bicycle, and driving my car 2-3k per year if need be (or even less). I sold my scooter because its benefits were not worth the effort/costs/risks in my new location. I don’t miss it at all. My conclusion was that scooters are potentially useful but limited resilience tools for individuals.
If you go to an emerging nation and see how they live, you’ll get a laundry list of coping strategies for a lower energy lifestyle.
On the surface, in the city it doesn’t look remarkably different, but - pickup trucks full of people as short-distance transport, 125cc scooters carrying entire families as short-distance transport, a shared pickup truck among a group of families in a village to support the farming group, etc. It all adds up to about 33% of current US per capita fuel use. People also do a lot more things in groups.
I agree with rhare. As we slide down the curve, the cops will be a lot more relaxed about such things. That’s because they’ll have to be.
That too will be part of the coping strategy. Places that don’t do that will have lower effective standards of living. So change your local ordinances and that will help solve the problem.
You can buy your scooter in advance…
People in the country far apart from their neighbors will have more difficulty, of course; maybe people will end up moving closer together to share transport resources.
And of course the move to a “small walkable city” is probably the best solution. I’d still add in a scooter though, but that’s because I enjoy riding them…
Before collapse, there are a lot of options for us to reduce our carbon footprints. But after the collapse, you must adjust your thinking to include the new level of danger you will face while out in public and traveling. All forms of transportation are dangerous in a situation in which the economy has collapsed because the rule of law will generally collapse with it (albeit with a small time delay). Here are some of my plans, which you’d be wise to factor into your thinking/planning for post-collapse commuting and traveling.
And my favorite:
Hi Granny I’m new on the site.
I was just wondering what do you think are the likely scenarios thats going to play out for the Oil producing countries.
I had a read on Gails piece.
It said that Oil importers are likelt going to suffer badly.
& since those oil importers are going to suffer badly is it likely that the oil producing countries will suddenly become a more viable option to set up Manufacturing industries because it makes more sense from a cost perspective?
Higher Oil prices mean more profits for Oil companies but what happens to the economy of the Oil producing countries?
Will the citizens of oil producing nations be better off or will their cost of living go up substantially as well because the cost of their imports increase?
Back in 2008 I was living in a rural area where I had to put 18000 miles a year on my car just to commute back and forth to work and to get to a grocery store. I was also PO aware at the time, and like most other POers, expecting gas to go to 5$ a gallon, and expecting oil to start becoming cripplingly scarce.
To increase my situational resilience, I purchased a used 250cc honda scooter, got a motorcycle driver’s license endorsement so I could legally drive the thing, and outfitted the scooter with storage boxes. By some means the experiment was a success – with cold weather gear I was able to use it about 7.5 months for about 10-12k miles a year, and was able to get about 75MPG. When gas shot up to $3.50 a gallon more often than not I would get into scooter conversations with envious car drivers when re-filling at gas stations. The main state-wide paper even put me on the front page of a Sunday edition during the height of gas spike, as an example of how one person worked to reduce gas expenses/carbon footprint.
I used the scooter for groceries, commuting, and even laundry on one occasion. I could strap a guitar on back and ride to musical social occasions. I could even operate it reasonably safely on freeways, as it maxed out at about 70MPH.
There were tradeoffs: Scooters need more maintenance, and there were no nearby mechanics who knew my scooter, so I had to learn to do a lot of the maintenance myself, which took time, money and effort. While my experiment lasted for a little over 3 years, I never crashed while on it, but I did experience a close call or two. The things are dangerous even if you are careful in your riding habits.
My ultimate resilience-building action however was to move to a small walkable city, where I can make do using my bicycle, and driving my car 2-3k per year if need be (or even less). I sold my scooter because its benefits were not worth the effort/costs/risks in my new location. I don’t miss it at all. My conclusion was that scooters are potentially useful but limited resilience tools for individuals.
Thanks for sharing your experience ! I looked into many things, and the solution we came up with was a diesel jetta that gets close to 50mph hwy and actually does get 45mpg rural mountain roads, while carrying quite a few people, stuff, etc… up the mountain, in the rain… 45mpg for 4 people is good averaged out. If I have to, I could walk to a store, it would take all day and I could bring much back with me, but it is doable in an emergency or changed times, but more likely is ride sharing.
As always, a good article with good data.
One thing which isn’t clear to me is how much of the oil discovered (in the chart that begins in 1950) has already been used up? I’m sure most of it is gone but of the pool that’s left, how significant are the low discovery numbers of the last three years? Chris points out that low discovery means low production. But we should also take into account the amount that may already be available to pump. Will it last for a year or two? Or, will it last for 10-20 years even if we don’t discover more oil. This would be important data to include with this article.
Yes, individuals would benefit economically from spending far less on transportation. A few, perhaps not an insignificant number, would not benefit from a health perspective as scooters have a much higher rate of personal injury than autos I would imagine."
Its very likely that americans and probably all westerns will be reducing there transportation whether they like or not.
Lack on long term Oil discovery & development. New OIl Discoveries fell off a cliff, and CapEx for the Oil majors has been declining since 2012
People are reaching into credit limits to borrow money to buy new vehicles. The average loan duration is now at 70 months, and continues to rise. Its likely that with in the next 10 years few americans will be able to afford new vehicles.
Technology is change business production. Automation is likely to replace 1/3 of US workers over the next 10 years. knowledge workers can work remotely or from home. Meetings can be conducted over the Web. Fewer jobs and more people working from home means less commuters.
I don’t think scooters and electric vehicles will be widely adopted. I think most americans would be incapable of driving a bike. Most americans can’t even drive a car with a manual transmission. People in the north are not going to be too keen on driving a bike in freezing weather, and people in the south (such as Nevada, Arizona) are not going to be driving a bike in 100F temperatures. Not sure how families are going handle young children or transporitng a weeks worth of groceries on a e-bike. Considering that non-electric vehicles are quickly become unaffordable, its unlikely that they would be able to afford electric cars either. By the time Americans are forced to drive bikes instead of cars, the economy would have collapses. I am sure well before that point happens the US will be facing the same problems as the poorest regions like Venzuela, Argentina, Africa, etc.
As far as WW3 happening, I am in that camp. The world is getting increasing unstable and belligerent. Western Europe is under increasing strain from the millions of refugees pooring in, caused by the wars Westerns gov’t created in the Middle East. Many parts of the world are become increasing unsafe as violence increases and the lack of law enforcement to contain violence. Debt and over population is creating a situation of packing a group of angry rates in a cage. The World was safer during the Cuban missle crisis than it is today. Even the Doomsday clock is near its closest point: http://thebulletin.org/timeline
2017: IT IS TWO AND A HALF MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT
Before there is a major economic collapse/depression, There will be a third world war. The rich countries will battle out for control of the worlds dwindling resources.
Hi David, hey thanks for asking my opinion on oil and oil producing countries. My answers to your questions would be this. Firstly I am not qualified or knowledgeable enough to answer with authority but my opinion would be “it depends”. For instance take the state I live in, Alaska, we are an oil producing state. However, yesterday when I filled up my car with gas I was acquately aware that the fuel showed up to the gas station via this route.
Crude oil was pumped out of the ground on the North Slope Oil Field
It traveled down the Trans-Alaska Pipeline to its terminus - Valdez
Pumped into a barge
Traveled to a refinery somewhere in the Lower 48
Refined
Refined gas was either put in a truck and driven up the Alaskan Highway or Barged BACK to Alaska where it was pumped into the tanks at a gas station so I could fill my car with gas.
So it would seem that there really isnt a benefit for manufacturing by being located in an oil producing state. Perhaps this scenario plays out in oil producing countries as well I don’t know.
In my opinion few will benefit in a world with with dwindling resources the best we can do is try to make the lives of our children easier by teaching them numerous skills so they are a " Jack of All Trades", creativity will be an asset.
Edwin Black wrote a book called “The Plan” which explains the plan our government has for us when there is an oil crisis. Hint, it’s not a very good plan.
My 2 cents
Thanks -AK Granny
The text and last two graphs presented in this article, cover “conventional oil” discoveries without mentioning “tight oil” (oil from shale and sandstone). As such, the author of this article creates a rather alarmist scenario.
“Tight oil” now provides roughly half of US oil production. Yes, oil is a finite resource and we need to be concerned, but let’s not panic.
A more objective view is provided by the US Energy Information Administration: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29932
In summary, to contradict the author…a major oil supply shortfall (at least within the US) seems very unlikely before 2020.
The blackout that hit New York on July 13, 1977, was emblematic of the crippling times that had grasped the city.
A steep economic decline along with rising crime rates and the war on drugs made for an already gloomy Big Apple that was just further darkened by the Son of Sam murders that gripped the city.
Lightning strikes wiped out a power line in Westchester causing the Indian Point generating station that lit most of the city to crash as well.
And the damage during the 25 hour blackout was vast - the New York Times reported that 1,000 fires had been set by arsonist and 1,600 stores ransacked.
A reported 3,373 people were also arrested for looting and vandalism.
Everything was up for grabs to be stolen as well as cars, jewelry, televisions and even large pieces of furniture.
The blackout that hit New York on July 13, 1977, was emblematic of the crippling times that had grasped the city.
A steep economic decline along with rising crime rates and the war on drugs made for an already gloomy Big Apple that was just further darkened by the Son of Sam murders that gripped the city.
Lightning strikes wiped out a power line in Westchester causing the Indian Point generating station that lit most of the city to crash as well.
And the damage during the 25 hour blackout was vast - the New York Times reported that 1,000 fires had been set by arsonist and 1,600 stores ransacked.
A reported 3,373 people were also arrested for looting and vandalism.
Everything was up for grabs to be stolen as well as cars, jewelry, televisions and even large pieces of furniture.
