This quote is from @rob-budreikagmail-com’s linked article discussing the oft-overlooked role of organic chemicals in the extraction and processing of minerals essential to modern life. I think it’s the tight connection to the oil industry - currently under attack by circumstances in the Middle East - that hit me, a non-sciences guy, particularly starkly:
The molecule at the heart of the conflict is sulphuric acid. It is the single most important chemical input for almost every major hydrometallurgical process in modern mining.
It leaches copper from oxide ores in Chile and Africa, dissolves nickel and cobalt from laterite deposits in Indonesia, extracts uranium in Kazakhstan, and separates rare-earth elements.
At the same time, sulphuric acid is the primary feedstock used to convert phosphate rock into phosphate fertilisers, the nutrients that sustain global agriculture. More than half of all sulphuric acid produced on Earth (55–60 %) is consumed by the fertiliser industry. Mining, even at the peak intensity required by the energy transition, accounts for only a fraction of total demand.
This creates a direct, molecule-for-molecule competition. Every extra tonne of copper cathode, nickel mixed hydroxide precipitate, or uranium yellowcake produced through acid-intensive methods consumes acid that could otherwise have been used to make fertiliser.
The dual shocks of 2026, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to elemental sulphur shipments and China’s comprehensive ban on sulphuric acid exports have turned this latent competition into an immediate, zero-sum geopolitical triage.
Governments facing hungry populations have already begun choosing food security over metal security. To make it even more complicated, governments may have to choose between food and defence. Weapons and green energy manufacturers use the same reagents as herbicides, fertilisers and pesticide manufacturers.
This is an eye-opener for me. But as I say, I’m not a natively science guy. The essential role of reagents in metals mining - in particular sulfuric acid - and the location of chemical reagents in the oil extraction and refining process comes new to me (albeit it’s something of a ‘duh’ once explicitly pointed out).
In turn, the reliance upon the Gulf States’ oil operations and the Strait of Hormuz transit chokepoint, plus the centrality of Chinese processing and production sector to global supply, magnify the global problem.
The problem is the rapidly increasing need for governments to choose between using constrained supply of sulfuric acid and other chemical reagents for either food or metals. Doing both at scale is no longer possible. The author predicts governments will prioritize food. But that comes at the cost of defense concerns, the transition to electric over petrochemical energy, and sustaining production of core products on which contemporary human life is based.
The illusion has finally cracked.
For decades, the mining industry fixated on geological reserves while treating sulphuric acid, sodium cyanide and organophosphorus extractants as mere background consumables.
In the first half of 2026, the Strait of Hormuz and China’s acid export ban ripped away the veil: modern metallurgy is chemically hostage. The true bottleneck in the energy transition is no longer how much metal sits in the ground; it is who can reliably secure the reagents required to liberate it.
Geological scarcity has been overtaken by chemical and geopolitical vulnerability.
This was a grounding article for me because it anchors general concepts in my mind to specifics in the mining industry in words even a non-science guy like me can readily comprehend.
Lots of uncertainty immediately ahead. As @cmartenson keeps saying, plant a garden. It’s no guarantee, but it does tip the scales a bit more in the gardener’s favor.
I love this!