The nine packs of chewing gum in Slim Pickens’ survival kit was a humorous reference to heavy (and ultimately successful) lobbying by the Wrigley corporation during WWII to include a pack of Wrigley’s chewing gum in survivial kits. Wrigley’s advertisements during the war recommended 5 sticks of gum per day for all war workers and servicemen, and claimed that their gum was stimulating and increased concentration while reducing fatigue.
[quote=jrf29]
The nine packs of chewing gum in Slim Pickens’ survival kit was a humorous reference to heavy (and ultimately successful) lobbying by the Wrigley corporation during WWII to include a pack of Wrigley’s chewing gum in survivial kits. Wrigley’s advertisements during the war recommended 5 sticks of gum per day for all war workers and servicemen, and claimed that their gum was stimulating and increased concentration while reducing fatigue.
[/quote]
Certainly, chewing gum is healthier than the 9 cigarettes that were included in the rations! I agree that gum can be stimulating - that extra little burst of sugar.
Poet
Travlin,
I don’t think the phrase "paying one’s own way", is likely to be heard much post collapse. It is more likely to be about contribution to your community and/or self-sufficiency.
Hey, I can understand why those nearing or at retirement (I’m less than 10 years away) would want to hope that what they’ve worked towards all of their working lives will still have some validity. I guess I’m not too different from you, in terms of what I tried to achieve, though I probably wasn’t as frugal as you, though we did live below our means. But I now have no expectation of a conventional retirement though I still cling, barely, to the hope that beyond all the carnage that collapse will wreak some kind of better way of living will emerge. If it’s to be sustainable, I think equality and fairness will be a key feature of a future community and, maybe, society. All I’m saying is that hanging on to some idea of wealth beyond what others have doesn’t sound like equality is at the forefront of thought. However, I really don’t think it matters in the period up to and through collapse since PMs will probably need to be a very long term holding if it is to realise the dreams of many here. It has worth, I think, only as a short term investment; those who want to get through the collapse need to prepare for the journey and a very long term investment isn’t going to help with that.
Tony
Travlin,
I don’t know why you connect money and government since we have no government money and its a fact government has nothing to do with creating money.
[quote=sofistek]All I’m saying is that hanging on to some idea of wealth beyond what others have doesn’t sound like equality is at the forefront of thought. However, I really don’t think it matters in the period up to and through collapse since PMs will probably need to be a very long term holding if it is to realise the dreams of many here. It has worth, I think, only as a short term investment; those who want to get through the collapse need to prepare for the journey and a very long term investment isn’t going to help with that.
[/quote]
sofistek,
I have two questions.
- Does "hanging on to some idea of wealth beyond what others have" imply that they should distribute the wealth that they hold above and beyond others to those others? If not, in your mind, how are they to dispose of said wealth?
- You’re saying the PMs will need to be a very long term holding if they are "to realise the dreams of many here" but then you say you think they have worth "only as a short term investment". These two statements seem contradictory. Could you please clarify?
[quote=ao]1) Does "hanging on to some idea of wealth beyond what others have" imply that they should distribute the wealth that they hold above and beyond others to those others? If not, in your mind, how are they to dispose of said wealth?
2) You’re saying the PMs will need to be a very long term holding if they are "to realise the dreams of many here" but then you say you think they have worth "only as a short term investment". These two statements seem contradictory. Could you please clarify?[/quote]
- No, but that’s an idea. Your question seems to be along the lines of, "I’ve managed to accumulate more wealth than I need to physically prepare for tumultuous times and to change my lifestyle to one more in tune with nature’s limits but I’d like to think I’ll still have that wealth for as long as possible - how can I hold on to that dream?" I’m afraid that’s not a question that particularly interests me.
- From my previous posts, you might deduce that my focus is on preparations. I recognise that preparations take time and that not everyone can make those preparations at the same pace or can change their lifestyles at the same pace. We certainly have uncertainty of money, at the moment - there is no guarantee that, even if you have it, you’ll have it over the short term; another financial collapse is entirely possible and banks, or other savings holders, may go out of business without your being able to get at all of your money. So, in the short term, gold may offer a way to retain some of your wealth in order to liquidate it as your preparations progress.
Of course, short term is a gamble, like any investment and you’d have to be prepared to take a hit. Dealing prices may not be what you see in the commodities section of the financial press, if you’re a small investor, so buying and selling over a short period could lose you money even as gold continues to rise (i.e. you could pay more than the spot price to buy and sell for less than the spot price).
I’m still considering gold and silver as a short term move, with all the uncertainty at the moment.
Tony
Actually, my question was more along the lines of "Does "hanging on to some idea of wealth beyond what others have" imply that they should distribute the wealth that they hold above and beyond others to those others? If not, in your mind, how are they to dispose of said wealth?"
So what would cause you to pull the trigger?
[quote=ao]Actually, my question was more along the lines of "Does "hanging on to some idea of wealth beyond what others have" imply that they should distribute the wealth that they hold above and beyond others to those others? If not, in your mind, how are they to dispose of said wealth?"[/quote]Any such implication is not of much interest to me, at the moment. If you have excess, perhaps you could distribute it to members of your family who might find it useful in preparations. After than, friends.
So what would cause you to pull the trigger?[/quote]
Actually, I’ve pulled the trigger. I don’t think a US default will be quite as bad, overall, as the Obamas and Boehners of this world are trying to make out (but it will be terrible for some). However, I simply don’t know, and nor does anyone else. So I’ve opted to keep some cash and some silver and gold on hand, for the short term, in case the banking system goes into a tail spin. It’s not much because, even with some gold and silver, I don’t know if I’ll be able to liquidate any of it if the banking system is in turmoil.
By the way, having bought, the price now has to rise by 10%-20% for me to get my money back (due to differences in buy/sell rates).
I don’t think Chris goes into any of these side questions, which is a shame.
Ouch! I’m curious as to why you bought now, at a historic peak in gold prices? Why didn’t you at least wait until the debt ceiling is raised?
These "side questions" (including bid/ask spreads) were discussed at length probably 2 years ago, IIRC, on this forum. I know because I was in the process of finishing up writing a white paper on gold for family, friends, and acquaintances at the time. I posted some basic tips on when to buy gold. Following that advice would’ve saved you a chunk of change. Now that you have it, at least make sure you have your exit strategy in place.
BTW, did you notice today’s news showing NZ’s inflation just hit a 21 year high of 5.3%?
http://tvnz.co.nz/business-news/perfect-storm-causing-high-vege-prices-growers-4325899
It reminds me of this discussion we had.
WHERE you buy or sell makes a huge difference. Buy low/sell high for PMs means seeking out the lowest premiums when buying, then selling to private parties, usually. IMO, eBay is an excellent resource to see the ACTUAL "street value" of your metals. It’s what real people are willing to pay, and you can get an average very easily. There have been times in the past couple years where one could walk down to the coin shop, buy a Krug and eBay it immediately, making a small profit. You have to be smart about HOW you are doing your transactions.Sofistek, i wouldn’t worry about recouping your 10-20%. If the rate continues at the same pace it has been for 10 years, you should be good after a year or so, or until the next emotional wave…
ao is right on, never buy when the headlines are fear-laden, buy when the mantra is "everything is going to be just fine"… Currently, if I was looking for metal, I’d wait til they make a debt ceiling deal (which they will), then buy on that dip. If you want to get out, wait till the next flop-n-twitch about the housing market, debt level, insert panic here. The good thing is, you are assured of this pattern by the fact that fiat IS in fact doomed, but it won’t go down without plenty of soothing propaganda from those in power.
[quote=ao]Ouch! I’m curious as to why you bought now, at a historic peak in gold prices? Why didn’t you at least wait until the debt ceiling is raised?[/quote]I’d already mentioned the uncertainty. You don’t know what’s going to happen with the debt ceiling, and neither do I. I don’t know what effect a failure to raise the ceiling will have. I don’t know what effect a short term agreement will have. I don’t know what effect increasing the US debt even more will have. Don’t worry, I haven’t bought much, just enough that, assuming I could sell it a little later, I’d be able to pay property taxes and buy essentials, for a while, if the banking situation deteriorates so much that I can’t get at the rest of my savings. I may dip in a bit more after the debt ceiling decision - again for the short term.
By the way, gold is not at an historic peak in my country. It’s still lower than its peak in March 2009.
[quote=ao]Following that advice would’ve saved you a chunk of change. Now that you have it, at least make sure you have your exit strategy in place.[/quote]Hindsight is a wonderful thing. But I think you’re not reading me properly. My "exit strategy", as you call it, is self-sufficiency, or as close as I can get. I’m not bothered about monetary returns and even losing something on investments doesn’t bother me (though, of course, losing 100% of my savings would be pretty difficult to take). In a BAU world, an investment exit strategy might make sense, but we’re not living in that world any more. In any case, isn’t Chris talking about PMs as a long term strategy? If we’re talking many years, and the screaming fundamentals are right, I don’t think any need worry about losing on PMs - provided they can realise their nominal value.
[quote=ao]BTW, did you notice today’s news showing NZ’s inflation just hit a 21 year high of 5.3%?[/quote]That news is a few days old but, yes, I noticed. There was a one off hit, in October, of a rise in sales tax (we call it GST), which added 1.5% to prices instantly. That is, the real (official) underlying inflation rate is 3.8%. If our leaders had been honest enough to put the tax on income, instead of spending, then the inflation rate would have been lower.
I can still get term deposit rates of almost 6%, though that would be committing my money longer than I’m prepared to do. The expectation now is of a base rate rise of 0.5%, next review, so it’s likely that I’d be able to put my money in a term deposit that is higher than the current inflation rate, soon, and certainly higher than the underlying inflation rate (which I can do now).
Thanks for the advice, tictac. You’re absolutely right, in a BAU world. But I think that there is so much uncertainty, and that markets are often acting so irrationally, that it’s hard to know if normally good advice is good advice at any particular time. Were at the limits, in so many areas, that events can be chaotic.But don’t worry, my investment is small, at less than NZD$9000. If I lose a few thousand, which I don’t expect, it’s not the end of the world.
Seling on eBay, or similar is good. I don’t mind doing that, and you’re probably right. However, for a first dip into this strange new world, I wanted to have absolute confidence that what I was buying was the real thing. My next purchase, if there is one, may be elsewhere.
So you bought gold because of uncertainty (which is a good reason) but you bought it on an uptrend with the expectation that there would be no future corrections occurring that would offer a better buying opportunity? This expectation defies the historical behavior of gold. When you rationalize a faulty investment decision, unfortunately you’re extremely likely to repeat the faulty behavior. While you’re unlikely to lose money on your gold in the long term, faulty entrance and exit points will diminish your returns and if you’re using those returns to fund preparations, your ability to fund your preparedness is obviously diminished.
Previously, you questioned the liquidity of gold when TSHTF but now you’re saying you’d use it to pay your property taxes and buy essentials? What happened to the liquidity under duress issue?
And you still think that your cash investments will outpace inflation? Why would you bother with gold then? Why not wait until they are no longer outpacing inflation and then buy gold?
I’m just amazed at your ability to rationalize your decisions. It’s preternatural.
I can certainly understand apprehension about buying metals. If you weren’t raised around it, it can defintely seem off-putting, and of course there is the concern about getting ripped off. Fortunately, it’s easy to spot fakes using only a micrometer and an accurate scale, though I’ve never personally come across one.You’re right, the AU price spiked up pretty good in 2009, but the trend has been up for the last 10 years, same as the US. Even if you were crazy enough to buy at that spike, in another year we’ll be seeing steady support at that level, assuming the music doesn’t stop before then. There’s no way dollar price will continue to climb, while AU price gradually descends. If our fiat crashes, so does yours. Sorry about that, BTW. There is no nation on earth right now that is doing anything fundamentally different, economically speaking, and there is no nation on earth willing to give up the power that fiat money holds for its government. Heck, I don’t think there is even a group of people willing to forgoe debt capitalism (in its many forms) save perhaps the Amish or Mennonites. We ALL want instant gratification.
I don’t believe in chaos, nor coincidence, nor do I believe human nature changes. This limits the amount of pie-in-the-sky scenarios I will entertain. While details are certainly volatile, I believe there are certain "big picture" concepts that remain unchanging, and you can demonstrate that empirically through the study of history.
Exactly!
[quote=ao]So you bought gold because of uncertainty (which is a good reason) but you bought it on an uptrend with the expectation that there would be no future corrections occurring that would offer a better buying opportunity?[/quote]No. The only expectation I have is that gold and silver would have some value, if I can’t get at my savings, in the short term. I bought a small amount simply to have that value. I may buy a similar amount later, when the latest crisis has toned down to a simmer and there is more certainty about the short term (one way or the other).
[quote=ao]While you’re unlikely to lose money on your gold in the long term, faulty entrance and exit points will diminish your returns and if you’re using those returns to fund preparations, your ability to fund your preparedness is obviously diminished.[/quote]Indeed. But I already knew that. As I’ve said, no-one (not even you or Chris) knows how the future will play out. No-one can make the best decisions about "investments" all the time, least of all now. It’s easy to criticise any decision but all investment decisions are gambles, so I’m gambling but that’s all that can be done anyway.
[quote=ao]Previously, you questioned the liquidity of gold when TSHTF but now you’re saying you’d use it to pay your property taxes and buy essentials? What happened to the liquidity under duress issue?[/quote]Fair comment, except that I questioned the validity of gold post collapse, not short term. Very short term, I may find that I can’t use my PMs to pay anything. But I don’t expect total collapse for a few years yet (even though I expect continual deterioration that will feel like collapse to some people), so I would still expect to be able to sell my gold/silver for something that I can use to pay property taxes. Remember that I’ve also taken some cash out that will keep me going for a few months, even if I can’t cash my gold and silver.
[quote=ao]And you still think that your cash investments will outpace inflation?[/quote]No. You continue to misunderstand what I’ve said. I have no solid expectations about anything, except a continued deterioration in societal institutions and the way the economy works. All I’ve said, with regard to cash investments, is that, so far, I’ve received returns that have outpaced official inflation. I don’t expect that to continue, nor do I expect it not to. I do the best I can in the safest way I can as I continue to prepare. My only expectation is that I probably won’t get full value for my cash before it becomes unavailable. I also expect that I’ll never retire in the conventional sense.
[quote=ao]Why would you bother with gold then? Why not wait until they are no longer outpacing inflation and then buy gold?[/quote]Hopefully, this is becoming clear to you now. All I’m trying to do is prepare and become as self sufficient as possible. I see very short term uncertainty and I’m trying to do something to reduce the likelihood that I can’t continue my preparations in the short term (over the next year or so). Perhaps I’m a victim of all of the gold/silver advertising here. I don’t know if buying some gold and silver will help but I can’t think of much else to do other than panic buying of everything that I think I could possibly need. However, there are other factors, which aren’t part of this thread, which make me unwilling, for now, to spend nearly all my savings in one go. That may well be a more sensible strategy later on, but not now.
[quote=tictac1]I don’t believe in chaos, nor coincidence, nor do I believe human nature changes. This limits the amount of pie-in-the-sky scenarios I will entertain. While details are certainly volatile, I believe there are certain "big picture" concepts that remain unchanging, and you can demonstrate that empirically through the study of history.[/quote]Chaos(increasing entropy) is the norm, in the natural world. Societal chaos? Who knows? Some areas of the world could be described as chaotic, and some have been for quite some time. We’ve lived in a bubble, in the developed world, so probably haven’t got the personal or family experience to be able consider a total collapse. I’ve got no idea how that collapse, or the on-going process of collapsing, will affect people, especially as the numbers thrown on the scrap heap grows. I’m tending to the view of a longer collapse period but the steps down could engulf anyone much more quickly and how people react to the annihilation of their dreams and aspirations is an important, but unknown, factor. I actually am prepared to entertain almost any collapse scenario but I tend to favour some over others.I’m not sure what you mean by human nature not changing. You’re right, of course, but what does that mean? We’ve had all sorts of situations in all sorts of societies in the past, many of which we’d all find horrific right now. So I’m not sure what you mean by letting history be your guide. All it really shows is that total collapse of a civilisation typically takes many decades or centuries, and that it’s a case of gradual deterioration, with more stable periods for some parts of the declining civilisation. None of that means that some more distressing scenarios are not possible in a non-uniform way.
Apparently I blinked and missed the 2 millisecond debt ceiling agreement drop in gold at the open. I would prefer not to buy into strength, but I’m beginning to wonder whether the August doldrums in metals is going to materialize this year. I’m also seeing a noticeable uptick in the common man’s interest in gold i.e. friends that are aware I follow "that Martenson guy" are asking for more information on the 3E’s and websites selling gold. Perhaps it was optimistic expecting a retrenchment to the 1600 level. Do others still feel it’s worth waiting until mid-August for a swoon, or does the quickly evolving change in public sentiment suggest I should be backing up the truck about now? Thanks-
Personally, i subscribe to the dollar-averaging approach, it certainly makes more sense for me. Apparently, the debt deal didn’t do much for people’s fears, otherwise you should have seen a bigger, longer-lasting drop…
My opinion, worth price charged- don’t back up a truck just yet. And I too am getting a "preparedness" vibe from most people i talk to, without me ever bringing up the subject. Call it the collective unconscious.
As for the comments on chaos as it applies to thermodynamics and societies, I cannot answer without dipping into philosophy/religion, so I will not answer. I will say that one of the best societies that exemplifies what you’re talking about, modern day, is Somalia. Somalia is not the result of "chance reigning supreme", but a CF of predictable proportions, given the "inputs to the system", to use thermo terms.
This is beginning to look like those long predicted days of hundred dollar moves in gold may not be far off. People must be scrambling for safe havens.
Doug