Originally published at: Toxic Rain Showers Tehran as New Iranian Supreme Leader Selected and Oil Surpasses $100/Barrel – Peak Prosperity
Iran War – Military Developments
Iran’s Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the country’s new Supreme Leader in a vote described as decisive. The election is reported as the first hereditary succession since the 1979 revolution. Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly fought in the Iran-Iraq war, maintains ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and oversees an investment network. His family reportedly suffered losses in the conflict, including his father, wife Zahra Haddad Adel, son, mother, sister, brother-in-law, niece, and nephew.
The US military’s largest overseas hospital at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center near Ramstein Air Base in Germany has halted labor and delivery services to prioritize critical combat care for operations in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. Commentators suggest this may indicate casualties are worse than what is being reported. However, military officials described the suspension as standard operating procedure during conflicts, with no current increase in patients reported.
A nonprofit, the Center on Conscience & War, reported its hotline overwhelmed with calls from US service members seeking conscientious objector status or discharge to avoid the war. Callers cited opposition to incidents including the deaths of schoolgirls in Minab and the torpedoing of an Iranian frigate. Executive director Mike Prysner stated the mobilization scale was reminiscent of pre-Iraq invasion preparations, with some units reporting boots-on-the-ground orders.
The State Department issued its first mandatory ordered departure for diplomats from Saudi Arabia amid fears of widening violence, following reported Iranian drone strikes on the US embassy in Riyadh.
Lastly, China’s MizarVision reportedly used AI to label and geolocate thousands of US military assets from Jilin-1 satellites and providers like Maxar, publishing near-real-time imagery of bases, carriers, and defenses in the Middle East for public access. The Pentagon dismissed the imagery releases as open-source commercial data. However, some commentators note that it’s not the imagery releases that are important, but the AI layer added on top that enables extracting useable intelligence.
Iran War – Energy Developments
Bapco Energies declared force majeure at Bahrain’s sole 405,000 barrels-per-day Sitra refinery after a reported Iranian drone strike caused fires and injuries, halting 85% of exports despite securing domestic supply. The legal suspension is expected to cascade defaults to buyers in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East amid tight refined product markets. This is the third major declaration of force majeure since the start of the war.
Oil prices have spiked over $100 per barrel. However, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright described the oil price spike as a temporary fear premium rather than a supply shortage, projecting gasoline prices below $3 per gallon in weeks. He noted a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz and efforts to reroute Russian oil via India. West Texas Intermediate crude surged 30% intraday to $119.48 before falling 19% to $96.45 on unconfirmed reports of a G7 strategic reserve release, settling 13.66% higher at $103.32. Reported structural factors included an 80% drop in Hormuz transits, Iraq’s 70% production cut, Kuwaiti reductions, and Qatar force majeure.
Iran War – Humanitarian Developments
Israeli strikes on Tehran-area oil facilities reportedly produced “black rain,” rain mixed with toxic hydrocarbons, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides, leading to reports of skin burns, lung damage, and darkened skies. Oily soot reportedly contaminated surfaces, with risks of heavy metals leaching into soil and water, threatening migratory birds and structures.
Iran War – Geopolitical Developments
Switzerland’s defense minister stated that US and Israeli strikes on Iran, along with Iranian counterattacks, violated international law’s prohibition on force. A former French Prime Minister called for European sanctions on the US and Israel over the war, which he described as illegal, and urged halting F-35 purchases. A Belgian MP rejected sending soldiers or weapons, calling it support for President Trump’s war, labeling Netanyahu a war criminal, and citing regional chaos. The Swiss minister specified that both US-Israeli actions and Iranian responses violated international law.
Iraqi Kurds in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government region have expressed reluctance to join US attacks on Iran, according to reports citing fears of abandonment similar to past experiences in Syria and earlier uprisings. A senior KRG official stated the Kurds would remain neutral amid unclear US goals on regime change, while Trump said they should not lead the effort. Israel has reportedly pushed for Iranian Kurds’ involvement. Some reports note US discussions with Iranian Kurdish militias on potential operations, though the Iraqi KRG remains uninvolved.
Economy
Asian markets were set to reprice silver above Western paper prices as Shanghai, Singapore, and Hong Kong exchanges opened. COMEX closed at $85.29, but Shanghai futures traded $8.71-$12 higher, Mumbai at $97-$103, and Seoul retail at $10-$15 premiums after the KOSPI crash. Reported factors included Indian rupee weakness, Korean demand surge, Hormuz insurance hikes, German nitric acid shortages cutting recycling, and COMEX withdrawals. Arbitrage was expected to lift COMEX to $87-$89 overnight. Subsequent Asian trading showed silver prices declining 3.9%, despite Comex inventory drops.
US home relistings reached a record 45,000 in January, or 3.6% of inventory—the highest since 2016—with one-third at lower prices after 2025 delistings peaked at 112,788. Bay Area metros like San Jose led at 12.5%, while Pittsburgh lagged at 1.7%. Inventory rose 7.9% year-over-year to 914,860, concentrated in South and West homes under $500,000. Median days on market hit 70, up four days annually, amid 5.98%-6% mortgage rates and a $381,750 median price. Overall housing supply, however, remains 17% below pre-pandemic levels.
Energy
China deployed the world’s first commercial supercritical CO2 turbines in the 30MW Chowan 1 system at a southern steel plant, recovering waste heat with an 85% efficiency gain and 50% size reduction over steam systems. The closed Brayton cycle uses dense CO2 above 31°C and 7.38 MPa, enabling compact turbines 10 times smaller, lower compressor work, and up to 50% thermal efficiency without phase changes. Advances reportedly included printed circuit heat exchangers via diffusion bonding, neural network controls, and dry gas seals minimizing leaks. CO2’s low critical point and chemical stability are said to outperform water, though corrosion challenges persist. Critics note ongoing hurdles with high-pressure sealing and material durability.
Other Geopolitics
Trump announced formal US recognition of Venezuela’s interim government led by Vice President Delcy Rodriguez following Nicolas Maduro’s reported kidnapping and narcoterrorism charges. The deal reportedly includes oil sector access for US firms and diplomatic restoration. Critics have described Maduro’s removal as an alleged US-orchestrated kidnapping to access oil reserves.
Trump also stated Cuba is negotiating a deal amid its oil shortage after Venezuela cut supplies, describing the island as having no money or fuel.
Sources
Iraqi Kurds Balk at US Iran Fight, Citing Abandonment Fears
“We have trust issues from the past,”
Source Submitted by Rodster
Asia Reprices Silver at 9PM ET: America Sleeps Through the Surge
Tonight is the night that the Asian physical market is going to reprice silver above what the Western paper market thinks it is worth.
Source | Submitted by eramerine1
US Military’s Largest Overseas Hospital Halts Births Amid Iran War Preparations
Largest US military hospital abroad halts labor, delivery services amid Iran war
Source | Submitted by Timo H.
China Deploys World’s First Commercial Supercritical CO2 Turbine: 30MW from Steel Waste Heat
China recently deployed the world’s first commercial supercritical CO2 turbine, which replaces the use of steam as the main working fluid to generate 30 megawatts of power from two turbines.
Source | Submitted by power
China’s Supercritical CO2 Turbines: Steam Engine’s Death Knell?
Swapping out the existing steam turbine for this new supercritical CO2 system boosted energy generation efficiency by over 85% while delivering more than 50% more net power from the same heat source.
Source | Submitted by power
US Home Relistings Hit Record High for Spring Season, One-Third at Lower Prices
US Home Relistings Hit Record High As Spring Buying Season Kicks Off, And One-Third Are Cheaper
Conscientious Objector Hotline Overwhelmed as Troops Reject US-Iran War
Phone has been ringing off the hook
Energy Secretary: Iran Oil Spike Just a Temporary ‘Fear Premium,’ Prices to Fall in Weeks
“You’re seeing a little bit of fear premium in the marketplace.”
Trump: Cuba Negotiating Deal with US as Oil Runs Dry
“The Cuban government is talking with us”
Iran’s Revolutionary Monarchy: Khamenei’s Son Named Supreme Leader
In other words, it appears that Iran overthrew a monarchy 47 years ago to institute a… monarchy.
Trump: US Formally Recognizes Venezuela’s Interim Government After Maduro Kidnapping
US formally recognizes Venezuelan government – Trump
Switzerland Breaks Centuries of Neutrality: US-Israeli Iran Strikes Violate International Law
Switzerland just declared US-Israeli attacks on Iran a violation of international law.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s Family Devastated: Father, Wife, Son Among War Dead
Just a reminder that Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei has lost the following people in this war:
Tehran’s “Black Rain” and “Nuclear Winter” After Israeli Oil Strikes
“Black rain” and “nuclear winter” effect reported in Tehran after Israeli strikes on oil facilities
Former French PM Demands Sanctions on Israel, US Over “Illegal” War on Iran
“We say clearly to Americans that their war against Iran is illegal, illegitimate, and dangerous.”
Belgian MP Rejects “Trump’s War in Iran,” Slams Netanyahu as War Criminal
Not a single soldier or weapon should go for Trump’s war in Iran. We must say No to Trump like Spain did
WTI’s Historic Reversal: Surge Real, Crash an Illusion
The surge was real. The reversal is an illusion.
Switzerland Breaks Neutrality: US, Israel, and Iran All Violated International Law
The U.S. and Israel (as well as Iran for its counterattacks) broke international law’s prohibition on the use of force.
China’s MizarVision: AI-Labeling Every US Military Asset from Orbit
The next war will not begin with a missile launch. It will begin with an AI model labelling every target from orbit.
Bapco Force Majeure: Drone Strike Triggers Legal Shutdown of Bahrain’s Sole Refinery
Force majeure converts physical damage into contractual default.
State Dept. Orders Diplomats Out of Saudi Arabia in First Mandatory Move of Israel-Iran War
The State Dept. has ordered diplomats in Saudi Arabia to leave. It’s the first mandatory ordered departure issued by the agency during the US-Israel war on Iran.
In addition to sources submitted by community members, the following were also used in the creation of this report: ArAIstotle Fact Checker, Reuters and Al-Monitor, Military Times and Stars and Stripes, Wall St Engine, swissinfo.ch, tatsuikeda.substack.com and Pentagon quotes, Trading Economics, ZeroHedge, CleanTechnica and MDPI review, and rcko3 and NordicOneX.
