In this episode, I had the pleasure of sitting down with Paul in Jasper, Georgia, to discuss the aftermath of Trump’s inauguration and the potential seismic shifts in policy and markets. We delved into the implications of recent executive orders, the state of the housing market, and the broader economic landscape. The conversation was rich with insights into how these changes might affect everyday Americans and the economy at large.
Shock and Awe Strategy
The concept of “shock and awe” was a significant theme, reflecting the rapid pace of executive orders and policy changes following Trump’s inauguration. This strategy, reminiscent of military tactics, aims to overwhelm opponents by moving quickly and decisively. The rescission of 78 Biden-era executive orders and the freeze on federal regulations are examples of this approach, potentially easing burdens on small businesses and fostering American ingenuity.
Key Data
Rescission of 78 Biden-era executive orders within 24 hours of Trump’s inauguration.
Federal hiring freeze and mandate for federal workers to return to full-time in-person work.
Directive to address the cost of living crisis, though specifics remain unclear.
Predictions
Potential for significant changes in the housing market due to overbuilding and rising interest rates.
Commodities, particularly gold, may see a resurgence as government spending continues to rise.
Implications
Housing market may experience a slowdown, affecting local economies reliant on real estate.
Increased focus on energy independence and infrastructure could impact energy prices and availability.
Potential for higher interest rates and economic volatility due to fiscal policies and debt ceiling issues.
Recommendations
Consider the potential for a generational commodity bull market and explore investment opportunities in this area.
Stay informed about changes in energy policy and how they might affect personal and business energy costs.
Be cautious with real estate investments, particularly in overbuilt markets with rising interest rates.
He will get rid of 10 regulations for each new regulation
Tariffs, whose amounts are not yet established, will be imposed on foreign goods
Federal tax breaks will be given for companies that make products within the US: he will lower it from 21% to 15% if products are produced in the USA.
He will reduce interest rates and inflation
The US is becoming a merit-based country
He (of course) talked about the border
There are only 2 genders. Transgender surgeries will be rare. Transgender athletes will not compete with women.
The United States is a sovereign country
We are returning to freedom of speech, no misinformation/disinformation labels to suffocate Americans’ free speech
Asks nations to increase their defense spending to 5% from 2% (this was a US request to NATO nations under Biden last fall)
It is time to end the Ukraine war, it is a carnage. He said millions are dying. He wants to talk to Putin soon about this. Hopefully this is an exaggeration.
There will be no support for electric cars. People can buy whatever car they want.
Prolonged delays for project approvals will end
With AI, we will need twice the energy in the US as we use now. (!). He suggests electricity generating plants be built next to AI plants, avoiding need to use the grid.
President Trump spoke about the use of “clean coal.” Does this mean we will use better scrubbers? RF Kennedy sued coal-burning plants for releasing large amounts of mercury into the air, generally harming low income communities where they were located.
President Trump said “debanking” is wrong and told the big banks to stop doing it.
President Trump said we don’t need Canada for wood, for making our cars, etc. He pointed out that essentially everything Canada has, the US has. This presages some tough negotiations on tariffs.
The President said President Xi called him. We have a 1.1 trillion dollar deficit with China that needs to be corrected. Hopefully China can help stop the Ukraine war. We’d like to see denuclearization of our two countries (Russia and the US) and China could come along. President Putin really liked the idea of reducing our nuclear capability. Xi did too.
The Ukraine war should never ever have been started. A lot of stupidity all around. “Far more people have died than is being reported.”
I would love to see a Red Phone installed between the Kremlin and the White House.
And to hear that RFK, Tulsi and Trump had secret dinner meeting with Putin in Switzerland. That they established a basic friendship. And that Trump will not allow the neocons to portray Russia as a boogy man in their quest to sell more wars to the public.
LOL, sounds petty but I was thinking, “OK, who’s dressing these two for the financial twins video today? Did anyone notice the similarities, other than Dr M’s pants were tan?”
Anyhow, good talk, lots of info and unknowns out there. We live in interesting times.
How long is the drive from ATL to Jasper and what’s the traffic like?
I’ve got a new ballcap for the greater DC area, from Baltimore to Fredericksburg to Annapolis to Manassas, that big circle around Washington DC, including Washington DC. It will be the only true benchmark for Trump’s success. Here goes:
It could be an hour longer depending on the time…Evie and I landed on a Friday evening, and got pretty stuck on our way to Elijay (where we stayed). The way back was super easy as it was mid-day and the area was under a snow “emergency” which wasn’t an emergency at all but seemed to keep most everybody off the roads.
While there, Paul took us to a famous fishing spot…fly fishing, barbless hooks only, mostly #16 and smaller hooks.
Trump is all-in on a war with the Bank of England. The Bank of England will collapse if Ukraine is lost and unable to pay the debts incurred prosecuting the war with Russia.
Alex Krainer and Tom Luongo put this together about two weeks ago in a podcast. Anyone else catch it?
Does the Bank of England control the clearing of sales of US Treasuries?
I hate to be the guy without a link but I think I heard Tom about 6 months back explaining the legal mechanisms by which the BOEs losses in the event of a Ukrainian default would be transferred pretty directly to British taxpayers.
But overall Tom’s hatred for the BOE and his theory about its impending demise at the hands of Jerome Powell is entertaining as all-get-out.
@cmartenson what feed stopped your chickens from laying? What did you switch too? Just a yesterday, I switched from the Nature’s Best organic layer feed to this: Feed - The soy free layer feed is available near me as well as at a dealer in Great Barrington (I know not all that close to you).
They were laying OK. We’ll see what happens with the new feed.
