Originally published at: https://peakprosperity.com/trumps-us-iran-mou-deal-strait-reopens-and-oil-price-drop-but-israel-rejects-terms/
Geopolitics
President Trump announced that a deal with Iran had been reached, authorizing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and removal of the US naval blockade. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed that both sides declared an end to military operations, including in Lebanon, with a signing ceremony planned for Switzerland. Vice President JD Vance described the agreement as transforming the region. Trump criticized an Israeli strike in Beirut on the day of the announcement.
The memorandum, as published by Iranian media, outlines three phases. Hostilities would end, and the blockade would lift immediately. Within 30 days of signing, the US would commit to non-interference, freeze new sanctions and troop deployments, release $12 billion in frozen funds, issue sanctions waivers for Iranian oil, gas, and petrochemicals, and consult Israel on withdrawal from Lebanon. Iran would reaffirm NPT commitments and reopen the Strait. A further 60-day period would cover nuclear negotiations, additional sanctions relief, release of the remaining $12 billion, and a $300 billion reconstruction fund. Iran’s missile program and support for certain groups are excluded.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council described the agreement as a victory, with Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirming the terms. Commentator Mario Nawfal noted that the nuclear provisions restate existing NPT obligations without new limits on enrichment or expanded inspections. Iran has indicated it will charge fees on Strait traffic.
The agreement’s status remains uncertain. According to Maariv, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Trump that Israeli forces would not withdraw from Lebanon. Axios reported that Trump criticized Netanyahu over Lebanon strikes. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir stated on X that the agreement does not bind Israel. One Israeli official told Ynet the arrangement did not meet Israel’s objectives.
Energy
Oil prices fell more than 4% after news of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding. Brent Crude settled at $84.21 a barrel, down from earlier levels above $100. US average gasoline prices, which reached $4.56 in May, declined to $4.07. Analysts said restoring flows through the Strait of Hormuz could take months. Analysts have questioned whether any price relief from the reported deal will prove immediate or lasting, given ongoing uncertainties.
Economy
The Producer Price Index rose 1.1% in May, above the 0.7% expected, bringing wholesale inflation to 6.5% year-over-year, the highest since November 2022. Nearly 80% of the increase came from a 2.8% rise in final demand goods, with energy prices up 10.7%. Economist Peter Schiff noted back-to-back months of 14% annualized PPI gains. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in May, lifting annual inflation to 4.2%, the highest in three years and above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The data indicate that incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh may face limited options, with rate hikes possible rather than the cuts currently priced in by markets. Higher-for-longer rates could affect commercial real estate, private credit, and leveraged borrowers. Some market analysts have described the inflation pressures as potentially transient amid easing geopolitical risks.
US Politics
According to a recent report, foreign influence has deeply penetrated America’s nonprofit sector, raising serious national security concerns. A House Ways and Means hearing earlier this year examined operations linked to Beijing, while a Senate subcommittee chaired by Senator Josh Hawley heard testimony on nonprofit funding networks connected to government fraud and overseas transfers. The Department of Health and Human Services is investigating the Council on American-Islamic Relations over $30 million in funding for Afghan refugee resettlement, citing possible ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. The State Department sanctioned the Cuban Institute for Friendship with the Peoples, described by the department as a Cuban intelligence front that has hosted US delegations since the 1960s and is linked to the National Network on Cuba, which has 77 member organizations. The network associated with Neville Roy Singham includes the ANSWER Coalition, Party for Socialism and Liberation, and CODEPINK. The Democratic Socialists of America, which reports over 100,000 members and roughly 250 affiliated elected officials, has joined Progressive International, whose board includes Jeremy Corbyn, Gustavo Petro, and Wang Hui. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that updated IRS Form 990 guidance will hold nonprofits liable for grant recipients engaged in violence, with enforcement action against certain funding networks reportedly under consideration.
British Politics
A Daily Mail investigation examined the Research, Information and Communications Unit, a Home Office unit established in 2007 by the late MI6 officer Charles Farr under the Prevent counter-terrorism program. According to the report, the unit has scripted family statements after certain migrant-linked attacks, including the stabbing of Stephen Ogilvie in Belfast and the murder of Henry Nowak. The unit reportedly coordinated with the Police Service of Northern Ireland’s C3 intelligence unit regarding protest organizers and advised police to describe demonstrators as thugs. The 2023 Prevent review by Sir William Shawcross stated that the unit applies a higher threshold for Islamist content than for right-wing material and has flagged works by Shakespeare, Chaucer, and Milton, as well as programs featuring Michael Portillo, as potential radicalization indicators. Technology Secretary Liz Kendall announced expanded Ofcom powers under the Online Safety Act to require rapid content removals during periods described as crises, along with a new £115 million Police AI centre that includes live facial recognition. Liz Truss has stated that mass migration is being used to undermine Western civilisation. Critics have said the COVID-era nudge apparatus has been repurposed to limit scrutiny of immigration policy. The Home Office has stated that the unit provides analysis of extremist propaganda to support counter-terrorism efforts.
Sources
Foreign Influence Looms Large Over U.S. Nonprofits
So how bad is foreign influence in America’s nonprofit universe? It turns out: very bad.
UK’s Secret RICU Unit Scripts Family Grief to Shield Migration Policy
You can see their fingerprints all over the statements released by the families of victims in these volatile situations – they usually have a similar tone.
Inflation’s Stubborn Surge Tightens the Fed’s Vice Grip
The vice grip on the economy and financial markets is tightening one data point at a time.
Oil Prices Tumble on US-Iran Peace Deal
Oil prices fell more than 4%, reaching their lowest level in three months, after the US and Iran agreed a memorandum of understanding that could lead to permanent peace.
Ben Gvir Rejects Trump’s Iran Deal: “Israel Is No Banana Republic”
And yet, the State of Israel is not a banana republic.
Trump Announces Iran Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Let the oil flow!
Netanyahu Rejects Lebanon Clause in US-Iran Deal, Threatening Collapse
Netanyahu just told Trump Israeli forces will not withdraw from Lebanon, and Israel does not consider itself bound by the Lebanon clause in the US-Iran MoU.
US-Iran MoU Proposes Phased End to Hostilities, Sanctions Relief
The Iran-U.S. Memorandum of Understanding: Full Details
Iran Declares Victory as US Deal Draft Emerges
Tehran declares clear victory.