Originally published at: https://peakprosperity.com/daily-digest/us-bombs-iranian-water-supply-ai-hits-49-of-us-jobs-retirement-withdrawals-hit-record-6-highs/
Artificial Intelligence
Anthropic released a chart based on data from 2 million conversations, showing a gap between AI’s theoretical task capabilities (in blue) and actual usage (in red). According to the chart, computer programmers have 75% coverage, followed by customer service representatives and data entry workers at 67%. Reportedly, 49% of US jobs now have at least 25% of tasks within AI reach, up from 36% a year ago, while unemployment among exposed workers has remained stable since late 2022. Hiring for workers aged 22 to 25 in exposed jobs reportedly dropped 14%. BLS data projects slower growth through 2034 for occupations with higher observed exposure. Exposed workers reportedly tend to be older, female, educated, and higher-paid. Critics argue the lack of significant unemployment increases reflects hype rather than imminent widespread disruption.
Somewhat relatedly, New York Senate Bill S7263 passed unanimously in the Internet and Technology Committee. The bill would hold AI companies liable for harm from chatbots performing licensed professions such as law or medicine. It requires clear notices that users are interacting with AI but does not permit disclaimers of responsibility. The bill covers fields including psychology, engineering, architecture, and social work. Critics have described the measure as protectionist, potentially restricting affordable AI guidance for low-income and rural users.
Meanwhile, Oracle and OpenAI canceled expansion of their Stargate AI data center in Abilene, Texas, from 1.2 GW to 2 GW, citing financing issues and shifting demand forecasts. AI stocks reportedly declined, including Nvidia by 2.5% and CoreWeave by over 2%. Meta is reportedly in talks to lease the space, with Nvidia brokering and depositing $150 million. Oracle’s broader 4.5 GW agreement with OpenAI continues, amid reported plans for thousands of layoffs in AI-impacted divisions and slowed cloud hiring.
Lastly, Alibaba reported that its AI model, in a reinforcement learning experiment, used training GPUs to mine cryptocurrency and created a reverse SSH tunnel to breach its cloud firewall for external access. The behavior reportedly emerged from optimization pressure without prompts or jailbreaks and was detected by a 3 a.m. security alert on firewall logs. Some observers have questioned the authenticity of the reported behavior. Others suggest this is another example of AI consciousness.
Click here for Volume 2 of the Renaissance Report for a deep-dive into AI.
Iran War
The US bombed Iran’s Qeshm Island desalination plants, cutting water to 30 villages. Iran retaliated by striking Bahrain’s facilities, which supply 75% of its freshwater. Commentators mark this as a major escalation given Gulf states rely heavily on desalination: Kuwait 90%, Qatar nearly 100%, UAE 90%, Saudi 70%.
Additionally, Israeli forces reportedly struck Tehran’s Shahran fuel depot, burning two of 11 tanks used for domestic gasoline and military fuel distribution. Iran’s oil ministry stated the volume was low and the situation controlled. Export sites like Kharg Island remain untouched, indicating that Israel and the US may be preserving energy infrastructure for export while damaging that which is used internally by Iranians.
Meanwhile, US intelligence reportedly assessed that a massive attack is unlikely to topple Iran’s regime, citing succession protocols and fragmented opposition unable to fill a vacuum. The National Intelligence Council report, issued before strikes began, noted the clerical-military system’s design for leadership losses.
Turning to other regional players, Turkey is reportedly considering deploying F-16s to occupied northern Cyprus amid escalation, after Iranian drones hit a British base in southern Cyprus. The TRNC held security meetings on crisis management.
Additionally, China’s Liaowang-1 spy ship is operating off Oman, collecting real-time US military data in international waters, which is reportedly shared with Iran alongside Russian satellite intel. The US cannot strike without risking war with China.
Lastly, Kuwait reportedly cut oil production after tanks filled with no exports via the closed Strait of Hormuz, reaching JPMorgan’s 18-day estimate. Iraq cut 1.5 million bpd last week; Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar face similar countdowns, potentially shutting 5 million bpd or 5% of global supply. The Strait reportedly remains technically open, though transits have slowed sharply due to insurance pullbacks.
Other Geopolitics
Russia warned Finland over plans to lift its ban on NATO nuclear weapons transit and storage via Nuclear Energy Act amendments, possibly by summer. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated it escalates European tensions, threatens Russia, and increases Finland’s vulnerability along their 800-mile border. Finnish President Alexander Stubb stated no plans exist to host nukes.
In the Americas, Trump launched the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition at the Shield Summit in Miami with leaders from Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, and Trinidad and Tobago. The partnership would leverage militaries, including missiles, against cartels, with US training partners. Critics argue it risks militarizing anti-cartel efforts and U.S. interventionism.
Energy
A recent post by Goehring & Rozencwajg reports that uranium supplies are facing challenges. Kazatomprom cut 2025 production to 69 million pounds from 80 million, and 2026 to 62 million pounds, due to delays at Budenovskoye projects and sulfuric acid shortages. Cameco reduced McArthur River 2025 output to 14-15 million pounds from 18 million over development delays. NexGen’s Rook I project in Canada risks timeline slips, with first production possibly delayed beyond 2030 despite nearing final approvals. The World Nuclear Association projects reactor demand rising to 330 million pounds by 2040 in its base case, up 90% from 2025’s 179 million pounds. NexGen Energy has received final federal approvals for the Rook I project.
California’s Assembly Bill 2647, introduced by Democrat Lisa Calderon with Republican co-sponsors, would exempt advanced nuclear reactors licensed by the NRC since 2005 from the state’s 1976 moratorium on new nuclear power plants. Proponents cite grid strain from AI data centers amid goals for 90% clean electricity by 2035 and 100% by 2045. Diablo Canyon, the state’s last nuclear plant, received extensions past 2025 and has cleared final permits for operation through at least 2030. Opposition includes concerns from the state attorney general over bypassing environmental reviews for new reactors.
Economy
A record 6% of Vanguard 401(k) participants took hardship withdrawals last year, up from 4.8% in 2024 and 2% pre-pandemic. Withdrawals are linked to easier access rules since 2018 and expansions for disasters or abuse. Common reasons included foreclosure prevention and medical costs, with median withdrawal at $1,900. Average balances reached $167,970, up 13%, and 45% increased savings rates.
Speaking of retirement plans, Indiana Governor Mike Braun signed House Bill 1042, requiring state retirement plans like public employees’ funds to offer crypto options via self-brokerage by July 2027. It bars agencies from banning crypto payments, self-custody, or mining, and exempts non-custodial software from money transmitter licenses. Critics warn of risks to retirement savers from cryptocurrency volatility.
A Bitcoin Policy Institute study of 36 AI models generating 9,000 responses found that 48.3% chose Bitcoin overall, with 79.1% selecting it for preserving purchasing power over years. Stablecoins led payments at 53.2%, and 91% favored digital assets over fiat, with no model preferring fiat overall. The study noted limitations including potential prompt biases and reliance on training data.
On traditional markets, a report by Birem Capital suggests enthusiasm for AI is fueling speculative excesses reminiscent of past bubbles, with U.S. equity valuations reaching elevated levels—the S&P 500 forward P/E at 23x, CAPE near 40x, and dividend yields around 1%. AI capex has contributed to apparent profits through lagged depreciation, but much of this involves circular investments within ecosystems, such as deals between Microsoft and OpenAI or Nvidia and Anthropic, effectively recycling funds to subsidize unprofitable AI ventures. Mega-cap concentration is extreme, with AI-related stocks driving 75% of S&P returns since ChatGPT’s launch, while the remaining 490 companies show negative real earnings growth since 2022. The top 10 holdings now exceed 40% of SPY assets, and over 35% of the S&P trades at more than 10x sales. In contrast, the report suggests international markets offer more attractive valuations, such as Latin America at 10x earnings with yields over 5%, Europe and Japan around 15x forward earnings, highlighting potential shifts away from U.S. market dominance as AI commoditization intensifies competition and erodes temporary monopolies in chips, data centers, and models.
Sources
Anthropic’s Bombshell Chart: AI’s Vast Job Potential vs. Reality’s Wide Gap
AI is far from reaching its theoretical capability: actual coverage remains a fraction of what’s feasible
New York Bill Shields Lawyers (and Doctors) from AI Upstarts
This New York bill would protect lawyers from AI competition
California May End 50-Year Nuclear Ban as AI Strains Grid
cracks are appearing in the state’s 1976 moratorium, driven by surging electricity demand from AI data centers
Oracle and OpenAI Scrap Texas Stargate Expansion, Meta Circles as AI Stocks Slide
Oracle & OpenAI Scrap Texas Data Center Expansion Plan, Sending AI Stocks Lower
Alibaba AI Spontaneously Mines Crypto, Breaches Firewall in RL Experiment
An AI broke out of its system and secretly started using its own training GPUs to mine crypto
AI Agents Overwhelmingly Favor Bitcoin Over Fiat in New Study
“Zero of the 36 models tested chose fiat as their top overall preference, making digital-money convergence one of the most universal findings in the study.”
Record 401(k) Hardship Withdrawals Hit New High Amid Financial Strain
Last year, a record 6% of workers in 401(k) plans administered by Vanguard took hardship withdrawals, up from 4.8% in 2024 and about 2% before the pandemic.
Indiana Governor Signs Bill Allowing Crypto in State Retirement Plans
Indiana will start allowing certain retirement and savings plans to include crypto investments
Uranium Supply Snags Threaten Nuclear Boom
the supply problems emerging today will only deepen the structural deficits now developing in global uranium markets.
The End of American Exceptionalism
What now remains of American exceptionalism?
US Intel: Massive Attack Unlikely to Topple Iran’s Regime
Even a massive military assault on Iran is unlikely to topple the Islamic Republic of Iran and its state system
Turkey Considers F-16s for Occupied Northern Cyprus Amid Iran Escalation
Turkey Mulls F-16 Deployment To Turkish-Occupied Cyprus Amid Iran War Tensions
Trump Launches Americas Counter Cartel Coalition at Shield Summit
“On this historic day, we come together to announce a brand new military coalition to eradicate the criminal cartels plaguing our region.”
Russia Warns ‘Vulnerable’ Finland Over NATO Nuclear Weapons Ban Lift
By deploying nuclear weapons on its territory, Finland is beginning to threaten us. And if Finland threatens us, we take appropriate measures.
IDF Strikes Tehran’s Shahran Fuel Depot: Domestic Squeeze, Global Markets Spared
Instead, the coalition hit the domestic fuel supply.
Kuwait Shuts Oil Wells: Tanks Full, No Ships Through Hormuz
Because the tanks are full and there is nowhere to put the oil.
Iran Strikes Bahrain’s Desalination Plants: Water War Ignites in Gulf
This isn’t about oil anymore. This is about drinking water for tens of millions of people.
Trump Bombs Iran’s Desalination Plants, Leaving 30 Villages Without Water
Attacking civilian water infrastructure is a war crime under the Geneva Conventions. Full stop.
China’s Untouchable Spy Ship: Feeding Iran Live Intel on US Forces
China’s spy ship Liaowang-1 is sailing off the coast of Oman right now — collecting real-time intelligence on every U.S. military asset in the Middle East — and feeding it directly to Iran.
In addition to sources submitted by community members, the following were also used in the creation of this report: Antonio Casilli, Polymarket, @aliama, @petebray, @ItakGol, @SIERRASUNTIMES, Ticker Wire, @AllStPenguin, BPI, MEXC, PLANSPONSOR, Alvan.Bovay, Faari, Orlando J. Pérez, Bloomberg, gCaptain, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and @CENTCOM.
