Volatility Returns With a Vengeance; Silver Shorts Play With Fire

[cmartenson (Chris Martenson)]

Originally published at: https://peakprosperity.com/volatility-returns-with-a-vengeance-silver-shorts-play-with-fire/

Executive Summary

In this episode of Finance U, Paul Kiker (of Kiker Wealth Management) and I tackled a range of topics from market volatility, the CPI, and the dynamics of gold and silver, to the intricacies of oil prices and the rising interest rate situation in Japan.

Market Volatility and Strategy

Noting the lack of any bounces to sell into (so far), which is a departure from past patterns, Paul described the market as a “jungle.” Even seasoned investors are finding it challenging to navigate. At times like these, having rules and strategies to follow are vitally important.

Gold, Silver, and Commodities

Gold and silver are sending signals that we both wish more people would heed. The significant interest from big players and institutions is especially noteworthy. More broadly, given the current strength and demand in commodities, Paul sees potential for that category to outperform equities in the coming years. But the time to go all in has not yet arrived. The signals are there, but not yet conclusive.

Oil Prices and Energy Strategy

For their part, oil prices reveal a disconnect between political narratives and economic realities. Despite Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s publicly stated expectations of rising oil production at $50 a barrel, the economics simply don’t support such a view. As an oil investor, I know the importance of price in determining output levels. The current price range of $70 to $80 is more realistic for profitable drilling. The only thing the Trump administration could do to boost oil production would be to reduce regulatory and tax burdens that would flow to the bottom lines of oil companies and their investors.

Conclusion

The key takeaway was the importance of having a strategy and being prepared for market volatility. Paul advised listeners to control their emotions and make decisions before the herd does. Whether it’s adjusting portfolios or building emergency funds, the focus should be on missed opportunities rather than lost capital. For those seeking guidance, Paul and his team at Kiker Wealth Management are available to help navigate these uncertain times. Remember, the worst thing you can do is hold on until the bottom and then panic sell. Be proactive, be prepared, and stay informed.

[davefairtex]

Yeah gold hit a new all time high (in USD), and silver is less than a buck from a breakout above 35.

The strong Euro helped over the past two weeks, but currency did NOT cause today’s big rally. Copper looks similarly strong as silver. Are the metals now disassociating from SPX? What happened to “Doctor” Copper?

Another question: is “bitcoin” money moving into the metals?

[redneck-engineer]

@davefairtex

Another question: is “bitcoin” money moving into the metals?

Heh. I did just that today… rolled some profits from one into the other. Still have some BTC but I expect it to come down a lot further near term. I can’t say there’s a trend.

My LCS did note the trend for last few months has been sell silver buy BTC. Today that didn’t come up in the conversation. Silver is moving in and out at higher volumes than recently and gold is just being bought.

[davefairtex]

Really interesting chart on PSLV short volume.

Here’s some data on PSLV short interest, and PSLV short trading volume.

https://fintel.io/ss/us/pslv

Example:
on 2/28, short volume = 14.9 million.
on 2/28, short interest was 3.2 million.

So short volume isn’t “money at risk at end of day”, its just the total number of intraday trades on the short side. Presumably, most of those get closed by end of day, so it represents a tactical (intraday) activity (suppression mechanism?) vs a longer term risk position - i.e. this isn’t “open interest” risk-equivalent.

“Days to cover” for the 3.2 million shares of short interest = 1 day.
Total trading volume (yesterday) for PSLV: 36.4 million.
Shares outstanding: about 520 million shares.

But it is an interesting tactical indicator. “Someone” is using PSLV to try and suppress price.

[cmartenson (Chris Martenson)]

S&P 500 closed right on a critical support level from last June (2024):

The cat had better bounce here…

[friedrichs_teeth]

Gold made it above 3000 according to Zero Hedge (I didn’t see it)

https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1900291010313191560

[davefairtex]

Ya beat me to it.
3001.50.

[rodster]

Another quality article by Charles Hugh Smith

Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0?

[cmartenson (Chris Martenson)]

@friedrichs_teeth

Gold made it above 3000 according to Zero Hedge (I didn’t see it)

That was Futures. Here ya go!

[the-blame-e]

The FED is fully politicized with the Democrats. I wonder what would happen to the US stock market if President Trump or DOGE laid off 100-percent of the FED?

[cmartenson (Chris Martenson)]

I’ve wondered the same thing. “Let it fall” is my bet.

[barbarad]

I used to have a job where I’d fly all the time, domestic and internationally. My record is 4 countries in one 24 hour period. So anyway, a lot of time on planes. My rule of thumb is calmness at all times, as long as the flight attendants appear calm. Once turbulence was so bad the oxygen masks were knocked loose and all our heads were snapping this way and that, choreographed with the masks and air tubes. But the flight attendants didn’t appear nervous so I went back to sleep, interrupted by occasional turbulence-induced head rolls.

But if the flight attendants appear nervous, you need instant alertness and to count the rows between your seat and the nearest two exits, given that if you have an “uncontrolled landing” that is survivable, you will likely have about a minute before the giant fireball engulfs the plane.

Flight attendants just know.

If the flight attendants look scared, death is imminent. Say your prayers and text your family that you love them.

This is my same approach to the collapse of the western world. I take a peak at Chris every morning he’s on, and if he appears calm, it’s hakuna matada for me. But if he looks worried or scared its bunker time.

Best membership value ever.

[findingmyway]

Looks like PSLV allows shares to be redeemed for physical. Is it possible somebody has sold short so somebody else can take the shares and remove physical?

[the-blame-e]

A government shutdown, or the end of the FED, would not be good for the portfolio of either Chuck Schumer or Nancy Pelosi but I think, that in order to save their democracy, the Democrats would let the whole thing fail. TDS, or just their hate, would be sufficient.

Here comes the truly strange part. News just came out that Chuck Schumer caved on a government shutdown. Schumer had, based on the previous paragraph, every reason to let the thing fall. He must have been instructed to not let a shutdown happen. I wonder by whom, or what?

What do you think the odds are that the US stock market goes up tomorrow (a Friday)?

[larrythelogger]

@barbarad

Best membership value ever.

Have to second that one.

[phecksel (PhilH)]

@barbarad

My rule of thumb is calmness at all times, as long as the flight attendants appear calm

Complete off topic. I’m a private pilot, and my VP who was also a private pilot, and we were on a charter business flight. I saw something going on the cockpit that made me uncomfortable. I expressed concern, and my VP’s head spun around. I learned that I really need to keep my mouth shut in situations like that. Plane had an issue that had the cockpit crew scrambling. They fixed the issue and all ended up being good.

Agreed, great value!

[blaggers]

A friend went into the local very small town PM store.
Someone was in there buying $320K CAD in gold, silver and platinum. Yikes.
Apparently the coin store in the city to the north had run out of silver to sell.
Creak, groan, pop.

[midelman (Prov3:5-6)]

~ 35:35 Rick Rhuse (?)…(from transcript)

if the us dollar loses 75 % makes absolute sense. The gold will go up four fold.

The dollar losing value suggests and stocks correcting suggest now’s the time to convert inflated money to hard assets like land, precious metals, and be ready to rotate into commodities and certain foreign markets. Any bets on which emerging markets are promising? Argentina? Is it also true that it makes sense to invest in foreign markets while the dollar is still relatively high - and if it weakens against foreign markets that could be another hedge, no?

[larrythelogger]

East Oklahoma and Ft Smith PM dealers have been low to out of gold and silver for about two months which is not the norm around here.

[vlastimil]

Still Plenty of metals by my dealer in Northwest suburbs of Chicago… Only what he ran out so far is platinum koala… And when I asked him about fractional gold… Numbers be told me were INSANE…!!