Good news for Peak Prosperity subscribers -- davefairtex has returned to regularly scheduled programming with his weekly market updates!
In this introductory interview, Dave sits down with Chris to discuss how he approaches markets, the early signals he looks for, and what to expect from his weekly market updates.
The guy I used as my tutor for candlesticks actually responded to an email to me about candlesticks. He suggested they have limited utility in detecting trend changes. He prefers “patterns.” I thought that was amusing since he’d spent a ton of time writing up a site about candles. Smart guy.
I’ve done a large analysis of candlesticks. It is hard for me to tease out the specifics of the candle itself (length of the lower shadow etc) from where the candle appears in the overall price trend. My neural net does this for me. Some candles are pretty useless except at rare intervals - doji candles for instance.
Candles themselves have a “population” chance of marking a low, the model itself has an accuracy (how often does it get “close” to predicting the reversal in candles it hasn’t seen before), there’s the population “size” the model was trained on, there is the rating the model gives a particular candle (where 0.0 = model concludes “no reversal”, and 0.999= model is as sure as it gets of a reversal), which yields an overall % chance of a reversal. I ignore ratings 0.00-0.02: there are a lot of them. For bullish reversals, I call that “a bearish continuation.”
So for yesterday’s “long black” silver candle:
SI.CW 0.00 bull.long.black pred 19.3% model acc 73% (n=2620) pop 17.6% (n=37917)
This says “long blacks” in general have an 18% chance of marking the 8-day low. That’s pretty bad. This one: rating 0.00, which the model assessed had a 19% chance of marking the low. My shorthand: “a bearish continuation.” Model was seen to be 73% accurate on the 2620 never-seen-before candles used to test it out, and 37,917 long blacks were used to train this model up.
Of course the candle models don’t know about open interest, or prices of SPX, or other things that can drive the actual silver price. They’re mostly trained on equity market data. I had to be careful not to take more than 10 candles per day during training. (Turns out, pretty much every equity prints the same candle pattern on reversal days, and you don’t want to over-represent).
Regarding silver, I’m more optimistic because of the very low OI. I bought more silver in the afternoon.
Can the next video go through each section of the update and explain it and the financial terms used? Sort of a Chris M format where the report is scrolled through and spots highlighted as they are explained.
I followed the daily reports for several years and found it informative even if I didn’t understand it all.
It would also be useful to have links to good definitions of words built into the report. That way guys like me that look this stuff up once and forget it could have an easy reference.
Dave,
So good to hear your voice. What a beautiful picture I have now painted of you. I truly appreciate the way you think.
Thank you so much for sharing your valuable time with us.
Kind regards,
Tycer
Great discussion, thanks! Two mutually unrelated response questions that I would love for Dave to answer if he has time:
A precious metals analyst I follow has said that silver follows sugar, so it is important to watch the sugar price. Any thoughts on that?
Please could you go into more detail about the mechanics of how it would work if they want to crash the property market – you said people would suddenly not be able to make their mortgage payments and so banks would foreclose and prices would crash so the bankers can buy. What would create a situation where people could not make their mortgage payments? Thanks!
on the UFOs.
It seems to me that we are being guided towards a centrally planned economy.
What money gives you is freedom to make choices. This Freedom is not a value that the Central planners hold.
Anal Swab has already told you; “You’ll own Nothing”.
Freya said: 6. If ever it should happen that one of your people should sell his freedom, he is not of you, he is a bastard. I counsel you to expel him and his mother from the land. Repeat this to your children morning, noon, and night, till they think of it in their dreams.
The Oera Linda.
model is that the Banksters have done what Banksters do; they’ve printed up money. Now they want to go shopping.
But how to do that without looking like Zimbabwe?
What’s the opposite of inflation? Deflation.
Like say; a lockdown.
Livio,
Chris’ voice was very soft. Dave’s voice was loud. I listened with my hand on the volume dial like during a Beethoven symphony. Have you some sort of volume equalizer? All interviews have had a bit of this problem, but this time one sudden loudness startled the cat right off the table.
Hi Agnes,
We did have some sound issues on davefairtex’s microphone which took some cleanup and repair work. We will have it all fixed up for next time. Cheers, Livio.
