What Happens if Trump Repeals Income Taxes?

Originally published at: https://peakprosperity.com/what-happens-if-trump-repeals-income-taxes/

The Trump administration has been a constant source of significant actions that have been coming at a pace that is, quite frankly, difficult to absorb.

Also, reality has been introducing itself keeping things interesting. The Deep Seek disruption has yet to fully play out, but it’s quite fascinating that it was China, a supposedly Communist country, that made its AI discoveries truly open source while the inappropriately named OpenAI (ChatGPT) was barreling down a path designed to build an impenetrable technological moat while keeping things hidden.

Oops! China released the AI equivalent of the Golden Gate Bridge and invited everyone to drive across it to make themselves home on OpenAI’s exclusive fancy campus.

Those shockwaves are yet to fully play out.

Meanwhile, Trump’s administration is busy sending “please resign” notices to all government employees, as well as the following non-exhaustive list of actions:

But perhaps the biggest shock from a market perspective was Trump’s pondering if perhaps the individual income tax system couldn’t be eliminated in favor of excise taxes.

If that happens, I become wildly bullish on all things. I mean everything real and tangible but also including select stocks.

Tune in to hear all about it!

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That sounds too good to be true, but if it happens, it would be amazing!

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Wouldn’t a lack of income tax just make the wealth gap even worse? The higher the tax bracket, the greater percent gains on annual income you would see, yes? Once prices stabilize after an influx of income, I’d think that would put the lower and middle class in an even worse position. Though, maybe I’m missing something?

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Govt. income from personal income tax $1,900 billion (2020)

Total income from all taxes $3,800 billion

In 2020, the federal government spent $6,550 billion (Trump, Biden, Liberals, Conservatives, it makes no difference)

Shortfall between income and spending $2,750 billion which was conveniently magicked into existence by the Federal Reserve Bank.

Which makes me wonder: Since the Fed is printing more than we are paying in personal income tax, why don’t they just close down the IRS and print the whole amount? Trump might be onto something!

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I feel like I’m getting shocks in the opposite direction now :face_with_spiral_eyes: :face_with_spiral_eyes: :face_with_spiral_eyes:

Wait so when you said he sent troops to the “border” - it wasn’t the Ukraine Border? I’m so confused. Ukraine Border is sacrosanct, I’m told.

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Would love a guided tour of Paul’s bookshelf.

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Without income taxes, I could spend my effort trying to figure out how to do useful things instead of make reports about it, then sign some document that says I know I may go to jail if I mess up.

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Prices will rise to meet the newly inflated disposable incomes. Right? People will have more money to spend and spend it they will. Huge inflation should result until another equilibrium occurs. If so, the moment the income tax is repealed buy some things that will appreciate with the inflation or greater. Gold, silver, land, food, large consumer appliances, etc. Then sit back and watch the purchasing power of your fiat dollars rapidly evaporate. The new normal price of a dozen eggs will be $9.99. Gasoline $8.00/gallon. However, the richest 10% will skew the outcome by buying investment assets like stocks, bonds and more real estate with most of their tax savings. Next: producers of goods in countries with newly imposed tariffs will raise their prices to compensate. The poor and working classes that don’t pay income taxes WILL suffer dramatically from the increase in the cost of imported goods with no new income to compensate. Over the long term much manufacturing will be revived in the US to compete with high priced imported products. The IRS could be nearly shuttered since 90% of their employees and their work would be unnecessary. Jobs in accounting and tax compliance would disappear. I imagine banks will face an existential crisis. In the chaos, the trigger may be pulled on The Great Taking leading to the imposition of a CBDC.

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Getting rid of Income tax is simple:

  1. Nationalize the Federal Reserve (Explained below)
  2. The government sells bonds at 7-10%, tax free for individuals
  3. The Fed Window (where banks borrow) has sliding rates. This has 2 goals, loosen money, and guarantee a decent 4-5% rate for savings/CDs are always available for citizens. But levers 1-7 = 1% rate, 8-10 = 3% 11-15 = 4%, 16-20 = 5%, 21+ = 10% (assume we average 3% on M3)

Realize: M1 = Amount of BONDS the Govt Sells.
M3 = TOTAL Money in the system, TYPICALLY 15x M1 (It fluctuates, CB was levered 42x).

So 10% on M1 (assume 1T dollars for easy math).
M3 is typically 15-20x that. Use 15T
If you collect 2% on 15T == 30% on 1T

You can pay the 10% on 1T in your sleep. And pay off the debt QUICKLY with the rest.

INSTEAD, private BANKERS KEEP that much money from us.
But, it’s different Because they push the M1 rates lower.
But the M3 rates are STUPID low, like 0.1% so banks borrow almost for free.

Imagine Borrowing at 0.1% and loaning for 7%. And then LEVERING that 10 times. In my world, they pay.

Which is why they DO NOT PAY SAVERS. There is no need. Their costs of money is the Fed Window Rate. They make SICK Money, with us absorbing the risks.

In my world, CB would NEVER use 42 levers, because it would be cheaper to offer CDs. Bring in 1Bln and LEVER that 1 Bln @ 1% for 7 more levers.

QED.
We only have to take from the RICH.

FWIW, it doesn’t even threaten the banking system. Because ALL of these banks can survive paying 1% (and those that can’t should be SHUT DOWN YESTERDAY)

Nationalizing it should be easy. Just claim. The tax payer keeps bailing them out for not running a good/honest/stable system. When we own it, we get the profits!

BONUS When you link the Fed Rates to the Savings Rates like this, if you give too much advantage to the Banks, SAVERS will see their rates go down. They WILL SCREAM. This is a cool design feature.

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Maybe actual income tax is a place where we should look at data? @cmartenson
Households paying no income tax by income level U.S. 2022 | Statista.

In total, about 59.9 percent of U.S. households paid income tax in 2022. The remaining 40.1 percent of households paid no individual income tax.

Taxpayers with AGIs between $500,000 and $5 million have an effective rate of 25.5%. Half of individuals who make between $100,000 to $200,000 pay a rate higher than 24.6 percent, while those making more than $5 million pay a tax rate of 23%.
The top tax bracket is 37%, but the 25 richest Americans paid an average of 15.8% on their reported income from 2014 to 2018.

Source: ProPublica analysis of IRS data

40% of Americans would receive NO benefit from abolishing income taxes. Do we really believe “trickle down” ever worked? In the last 20years, profits in the US are often retained or put into virtual vaporware. These is no evidence that giving the billionaires their 16% back would be used to onshore crucial manufacturing or to create living wage jobs.


The real problem, perhaps, is that before 1980, the 75-95 percentiles had enough assets to start small businesses and hire people. Now, as a portion of the overall pie, compared to the 1% they haven’t sufficient assets nor income to build assets and a tax drop probably won’t help them found real businesses (as opposed to joining the gig economy).

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Given where we are now as a society and economy, I don’t see how removing income tax is anything other than a transfer of wealth from the poorest to the richest.

There are only so many real things to buy, so increasing the amount of dollars people have access to just leads to inflation. Moreover, income is so greatly skewed that the greatest increase in spending power by far will go to the d.i.n.k. upper middle class who will just pour it into assets, in particular pushing home ownership even further out of reach for many.

This is not to say I think income tax is a good thing. Like sales taxes it introduces economic friction increasing the barrier for efficient transactions. This might need some explanation:

Suppose, in a world with no income tax, it takes a professional painter 2 days to paint some rooms and it takes me, an accountant, 3 days, and we each charge our clients $200 per day for our work. In that case I would hire the painter to paint the rooms as the opportunity cost to me of painting the rooms is $200 greater than paying the professional, as I can earn $600 in 3 days, but only have to pay the painter $400 because he can get it done in 2.

Next suppose (to keep things simple) both our marginal tax rates are 50%. Well, the painter still charges $400 for the job, but I have to now earn $400 post income tax to pay for the work. i.e. I would have to earn $800, which is 4 days work. In this case, I’d be better off spending 3 days painting the rooms myself. That’s not efficient.

Next suppose the painter needs his accounts done, and these would take me 2 days, but him 3 days. Well now, by the same reasoning, if there is no income tax the painter will get me to do his accounts, but if there is income tax the painter will do his accounts himself.

So, we have two worlds. In the one with no income tax, painters paint rooms expertly in 2 days and accountants do accounts expertly in two days. In the one with income tax, accountants paint their rooms (badly) in three days and painters do their accounts (badly) in three days.

The greater the marginal tax on a transaction (income/sales tax, professional insurance costs, business taxes etc.), the greater the barrier for people to transact and reap the efficiency gains of the diversity of skills in society. Once the transaction tax exceeds the differences in efficiencies between average people and experts, people just stop transacting and waste time doing it themselves. i.e. transactions can function smoothly with small income/sales taxes, as long as they stay below the threshold of normal differences in “skill” or efficiency, but beyond a certain point people stop transacting.

We’d probably all be better off if our tax systems had been based on Georgist principles, which don’t have such transactional friction built into them, but we are where we are now, and if one wanted to get there, I wouldn’t start from here.

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Is this only considering W2 level taxation.
Because I am self employed. And I count the EMPLOYER HALF of my income tax. And I know it feels a lot heavier than these numbers. Much closer to 50% on the nominal income at the end of the year. The last time I calculated it for the whole year it was about 40%. I have to assume you are looking at ONLY the employee half of the money being spent. When you own the company, you feel both sides.

BTW, lets assume I Converted the company, and paid myself a dividend. I owe 15% on the dividend, which is cool, but the company had to pay the ~21% (Lowered by Trump). And that totals 36%.

Umm, yes. It’s the reverse of what always happens when industry leaves. Growing up in MI, I remember what happened after NAFTA was signed. The factories started Closing. The Lunch places near them started closing. The Bowling Alley Closed, The Bars Closed. The Hotels Closed, We watched the Fast Food Places close. And as more places closed, more and more places closed.

This is the “Trickle Down” in reverse.

Trickle Down Always worked in the old days of factories. A factory moved in, different companies came in (hotels, gas stations, etc) to support them and the new employees. Houses were often built nearby. Then the roads were widened, Express Ways were created.

To argue against Trickle Down is to NOT comprehend how a business impacts a community.

It’s a prosperity move. It was NEVER supposed to be a cash hand out. Or someone made a little extra and hired a maid. The entire process is about the community impact of prosperous companies and investments.

Someone selling their company for cash, to someone who closes it down is NOT Trickle Down. It’s the opposite. It’s the start of BLIGHT.

Please tell me… If you had blight like I saw… What would you do to reverse? Beg people to open their Diner for the people who are not working?

Now, politicians have sold things in this way, that USED to work well, that suddenly don’t. BECAUSE the Politicians strike deals and create zoning that picks the winners and losers. Yeah, when it’s done that way you do not see the same impact.

But Claiming Trickle Down never existed. I watched a new mall get put in. Within 15yrs it was the most happening part of town. It spread out MILES from the mall. And is still a major place for all big stores… DECADES later.

I guess it’s better said, that it’s the Opportunities that Trickle Down. It’s a better way to look at it.

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The two easiest to calculate
Income and sales tax of products purchased in stores, along with property tax

How about the
direct gas tax, federal, state, and local?
While on gas, how about the gas station property tax?
Electric bills generally have taxes too. Plus the electric company pays taxes on every single pole, and every single foot of wire. Going back to the gas station, they pay taxes on their electric too.

As you start going through all the taxes, it’s not an insignificant number.

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For example, I paid myself a bonus through the payroll company of $20,000 and applied 100% of it to a Federal Income tax payment. I got ZERO of that money, but I paid in enough to avoid penalties for not paying “faster” (LOL).

Now, let’s assume a 40% tax on that nominal income (both sides, etc).
That means, I actually owe an additional $8,000 because I made a tax payment, but I had to pay myself to make it. It’s not insignificant. And the government doesn’t need it, if they just kept what the BANKSTERS keep

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Figures include all taxable income [not just W-2), but does not consider the regressive nature of Social Security taxes. I couldn’t find good figures that added in the social security component - because as you say, it would add 12.4% to the lower half, but doesn’t make a dent for a billionaire, because the top 50% stop paying SS at $176K. Medicare is an additional 2.9% for all.

One of the things I’ve discovered recently is it’s almost impossible to find real numbers, particularly historical. Before 2008, you could easily find numbers that were effective tax, including SS. Now, you have to calculate your own. Also, I had to do my own graph because nobody publishes income by percentile at even every 5%, let alone the 1% and 0.1% that I added. If you show only the top 10% as a group, you don’t see the exponential rise from 1% on as it smooths out too much by averaging that 9% under 300K with the billionaires.

I was taught NOT to call this trickle down. It’s simply supply chain and support for a business. Can’t have a factory if employees and families can’t eat. But in my day, the bosses didn’t get 100X what the rank and file got.
Not sure I think mega-malls count either. Small businesses on main street were a lot more vibrant and community centric (and left more profits in the community) than the mega-chains in the mall.

Part of the problem is financialization of everything and poor quality, planned obsolescence consumer toys that make money for the bosses and investors, but add little to consumers’ quality of life. You can’t afford to pay factory workers much if you don’t produce a quality product that people will pay for.

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Add workforce in every single company + vendor software platforms needed that eat costs, to just monitor these are done right to avoid IRS halting company operations or FBI raiding building and causing trouble and reputation damage to building. This is “not essential work”, I cant think anyone dream as kid or teenager of reading day in day out weeks and months just receipts and numbers in excel to check these match… btw these people are not accountants or anything like that by training, so they didnt choose it as career. In my company tax is just one thing but causes headache still they gotta check it is calculated right… and that department doesnt handle consumer products, just company to company stuff (balancing books so to speak).
Cities are full of these people who check invoicing numbers are right and then send it forward. They rather do something else too than do this whole day. Political/public machinery doesnt seem to have any idea how even simple thing let alone that complex tax code does in “private life” companies and households outside that public governance bubble.

They just joke for all bureacracy company has to have person doing just that and specializing in it, to keep things running.

Somewhere in podcast they talked how government is monopoly, no competition.
This ubercentralization that all these taxes and taxlike fees taken from community go to DC or other faraway place, and never come back.
This makes community poorer and less influence. Then NGOs should help that community like “poor people in africa” but we know they skim 90% from top. Dont know who invented “trickle down” but it sounds sugarcoating language to hide this big problem that there is no solution nor are they going to make one.
(Lots of NGO/government programs domestic to help communities have eery resemblance to “helping” foreign places… structure seems almost same)

This is wonderful. The opportunities trickle down, not the hand outs. In the end that is what free market is for, opportunities and not the free government handouts.

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I was taught NOT to call this trickle down. It’s simply supply chain and support for a business.

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Why can it not be both? Supply chain and support is a part of trickle down theory.

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