The BLS recently “revised down” the jobs number for the past year (March-24 to March-25) by a whopping 911,000. As a result some are now saying that the US has actually been in a recession, which is not the least bit surprising to either myself pr Paul Kiker because for the past year we’ve been tracking around 10 major recession indicators that have been flashing red.
How did the BLS get things so wrong? The generous interpretation is that their ridiculously flawed “Birth-Death” model got caught wrong-footed by the Covid stimulus gyrations and economic perturbations.
The less generous interpretation is that the BLS was trying to help the Harris campaign by making things look a lot better than they actually were.
So we discussed the jobs numbers pretty thoroughly.
We also dove into gold, powering again to new highs, and the possibility that the signal gold is telegraphing is that big money is moving in advance of … something. Something big.
It reminds us all of this:
Is gold saying a massive currency accident is on the way? Maybe a major war? Who knows? But it’s something.
Next, people struggling to make mortgage payments or who are currently holding off on buying a house due to economic inability, are probably not going to be helped all that much by even a 0.50% rate cut by the Fed.
The reason? All of their other costs in life, such as electricity, auto insurance, real estate taxes, and home insurance, are rising so rapidly that their monthly nut is getting eroded faster than any possible decline in mortgage rates.
Oh, and let’s not forget health insurance:
The truly infuriating part about this particular bit of news is that the BLS is gaslighting everyone by telling them health insurance costs have gone down over the past 5 years.
In fact, this has been everyone’s actual experience.
Paul Kiker finished up this podcast with another request that everyone take a good, hard look at their portfolio and income and wealth positioning to take into account the possibility that either lackluster market returns and/or higher-than-expected inflation could be stiff future realities.
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Here’s the gold-jpy chart since 2018. (Trying to put it in the same yearly context as the Weimar chart). Starting price in 2018 is roughly 146k JPY. Current price: 542k JPY.
Chris said something that might be wotth more conversation Taking about taking profits he included Gold (guessing silver too).
We will need to take profits on the way up. on the way down we will get paid way under spot when there are no buyers.
But where to put any gains now that is a tough one.
I can understand this putting that WEF monetization together. And considering billionaires are not homogenous blob group but internal rivalry and competition who gets to have their number go up. Thus they are never truly satisfied there and that chart is going to happen. “K-shaped recovery” as they said in 2021. But more and more become literal poor without food and shelter coz money dont flow evenly and those already rich try to hoard as much from faucet as they can to keep up with joneses.
When its time to sell gold, everyone will be so psychologically wrecked by events that perhaps you will be able to buy blue chips for 2 times earnings or govt treasuries with a real 10% return after inflation or real estate for 2x the annual rent.
But we can’t know what it will be yet. We just gotta wait.
I personally think gold is gonna go way higher than the traditional “redemption of the debt” analysis suggests because I think we are going to discover that the real debt, the real fraud at the heart of the system and the real number of dollars outstanding (remember Elon’s magic money printers?) are so mush worse than we thought that the reckoning is gonna push gold (and perhaps bitcoin) to truly hysterical valuations.
Im planning on enjoying that part of the ride to the best of my ability.
I’m curious what the historic chart for beef prices looks like compared to the run up in gold prices. I could easily by a nice cow for an ounce of gold a few years ago and now it takes an ounce that’s bringing 3600.00 It’s the same ounce and the same cow but wow have the dollars changed.
When you look at long term gold charts in every currency they look like the one Dave posted. Countries like Argentina, Egypt and Turkey are already looking like Weimar Germany.
This is why after two decades of being infuriated with my fellow citizens for not participating intellectually with the world around them, Ive now switched sides and think that its probably for the best that the masses are half asleep for what happens next.
In the former east block countries plenty of people woke up one day to find their money gone (or suddenly worthless). That sucks but if the average person could conceive of what was done to them their entire country would have burned which is even worse.
I say, let the plebs be vaguely angry instead and keep your head down so they don’t target you in a moment of simple-minded revenge. The Owners have things fixed so they won’t get blamed and we are prepared so our goal is to get more prepared and then to go unnoticed for a while.
Great question. The rancher who sells me steers sold three 600 lb bull calves last Saturday at Poor Boy auction in freakin’ Wister, OK for 5.30 a pound. Finally, he’s making bank for one but at our Wally World in Poteau, the crappy tube hamburger was almost six bucks per pound. Sirloin steaks are closing in on 20 bucks per pound…at Wally World.
He said ranchers could be looking at 10 bucks per pound for live bull calves by THIS January.
It’s been running 451$/cwt on 499# bull calves in my area. I sold all bull caves and a number of older cull cows.
BSF has the lowest cattle census in 30 years.
Well, that means I’m screwed while this goes stratospheric. I’m feeding out my two steers starting in November, process one, auction the other. I’ll get the lowest price per pound at close to a thousand pounds. I’ll need two more next Spring but probably won’t be able to afford heifer calves even. It’ll be a dip into savings for the first time but I’ll still do it if I have to, or risk the wait for lower prices.
Ten bucks by January though means my source will sell all 200 of his and go out of business. He’s 78. My best source for angus will be gone.
Quick check - silver 58.50 CAD this morning, gold 5052.83.
The tweet below references “silent depression”. I have no doubts at all that is where Canada is. So, so many blissfully ignorant of what is going on, what is coming, and how fast it is coming. Going grey, flying under the radar, if one is not already doing so as @wotthecurtains suggests is good advice. Especially for those who are decently prepped to the point they can just watch and wait to make the best decisions possible for their unique circumstances.
Of note I saw a tweet earlier this week, forgot to mention it, that indicated Canada is considering capital controls. No idea as to veracity, but it would make sense given how badly things are going up here, how much capital is fleeing the country & investment avoiding us.
It reminds us all of this:
