Thank you for articulating the suspicion / aversion I’d felt when, what, 6months? A year ago now? Brave browser followed the others’ lead in offering an unsolicited AI answer to whatever I’d been searching. That Ecosia search (do a search, plant a tree) did the same really caught my attention.
With the early estimates of every other model but deep seek ranging from 5-30x the energy usage to run my query through an AI model, vs traditional search… Why was there no means to opt out if i wasn’t interested? Why would companies promote this service for free, when it had to be a huge expense for them?
I imagine that Altman et al invested heavily to follow the “free hardware, cheap first year subscription, convenient automatic renewal” model, in exchange for eyeballs. (Obamaphone and early tmobile)
Get the users to train the model for free; once they’re hooked and the LLM is “fully trained” (either customized to the individual or averaged among the population, but not both), you can charge whatever you want.
Except for the lack of a milestone like “fully trained”, it might work. They just didn’t account for uncaptured or disinterested eyeballs, and withdrawn consent.
My best guess is he’s relatable and un-pretentious.
He also stays on track with the course of the conversation - which I’ve noticed a lot of hosts just don’t bother with, and why not?
(FWIW Tom Bodrovics and Michelle Makori also do this quite well, there’s others…)
If a person is going to do an interview, is that much to ask to be involved…at least a little?
But Mike does, and it may be the thing his guests appreciate.
There’s a slim chance that he’s also part of a underground Cincinnati media mafia consortium…but that could be my own paranoia too.
Can we try to guess the order in which events will unfold:
AI stocks tumble and pull all hi tech with it
BTC goes down too
How much is other non-hi tech stock affected?
Gold and silver will go down but probably not as much as stock
What happens to banks? By how much does their stock go down in comparison to AI?
Massive layoffs will trigger real estate crash or correction? Of course it depends on a neighbourhood, but a guess of an average price drop can be done. 10%, 30%? In which time frame?
When do possible bank bail ins happen? Are the banks going to be reactive or pro-active about it? Maybe they’ll print to infinity and let hyper inflation take its course?
How does great taking unfold? When does it start and how?
I know it is a guessing game, but I would be interested the most in trying to estimate at which point bank bail in happens.
I hope you realize how far ahead those actions put you relative to most other people?
It’s hard to gauge sometimes for me that same idea, because while I lose sleep over the looming predicaments for others, I am not worried about myself (or Evie or our kids) at all.
You think “fools errand” because you are in a good spot. Others are not so lucky and are either fretting daily or attempting to ignore their growing anxiety (impossible to do this completely).
But also, rest assured - “they” will blow another bubble or two or three. Or at least attempt to. Someday that will fail spectacularly, and we will both experience and call it “hyperinflation.”
But, I’m of the mind they can do this 1x or 2x more. Not because it pencils out, but because most people’s desire to be deluded far exceeds their desire to perform rational thinking.
I’m wondering what became of the fellows that propagated the South Seas bubble? Did they get away Scot-free like they would today, or did they get tarred and feathered?
I completely understand where @earthiest is coming from. During the GFC, my husband and I were pretty sure the financial system was doomed to another Great Depression. Who knew we’d have another almost 20 years of whatever this has been?
I think TPTB have a plan for a slow grind that keeps them in control and eventually swaps us, one by one, into the digital gulag where our lifespan will be cut short with bad food and medical malpractice. So those expecting an overnight crash that’s evenly distributed will likely be wrong. Although it is entirely possible the plan goes wrong.
With each passing year, more people fall into precarity. And with each passing year there are fewer people who remember life before the Patriot Act. Most people mistakenly believe we’ve got some freedom. More and more of us are broke and underwater so we can have all the toys and vacations “we deserve” and prefer ease and convenience over everything else.
Producing some of you own food, preserving it and storing it takes physical and mental work. If someone can’t do the mental gymnastics to turn it into an enjoyable hobby, there’s not enough short term gains to offset the commitment. Same with finances. Money is easy to earn and hard to keep. Best thing is to gamify the hard work and enjoy life knowing you’re prepared. Maybe even find meaning in something that has no monetary value.
Will this be the last bubble? Charles Hugh Smith has an essay about this very question today. TLDR he thinks the everything bubble is it. But I think there’s still too many solvent people who won’t be wiped out when this bursts. The COVID lockdowns created too many preppers. Those folks aren’t going down that easily. So we will probably get a few more bubbles that take down a few more of the unprepared at a time. And the oligarchs will keep siphoning off the wealth. Drip, drip, drip.
Great comment here @jim-h-2, I look at that list of future achievements and it exemplifies the extreme disparity of world view I have with most people. I’m waiting for what seems to be an inevitable contraction while Elon is making plans for 1 million robots, 20 million teslas etc. all I can think is where are the consumers, materials and energy going to come from what does he know that I don’t, he’s a smart guy. @cmartenson I say ‘fools errand’ because I feel now just like it did 15 years ago, my mind says then and now…“we are out of rope this can’t last much longer” meanwhile I’ve watched multiple friends start capitalize and sell businesses in that time frame. Ultimately I’m trying to let go of my scarcity frame. you @chris are nearly the sole reason we bought a rental property 2 months before covid doubled its value and the reason we paid it off, a 25 year mortgage in 5 years. I realize I’m WAY ahead with all this information. @bobje this is a great list of options, it seems to me that the places with the most obtuse valuations should go down hardest but that’s not the official handling. banks crash in 2008, people lose their homes. Tech gets over bought 2026 you lose your pension 401K… again. @permiegirl. Thank you for the further insight, the slow grind of continued bubbles and printing at the expense of prosperity is my perspective now. I think it difficult to properly appreciate the sheer inertia of western society, nobody wants to regress and so will fight it every step of the way. I’ve traveled a bit in Mexico and I fully expect the average living standards of the US will look more like Mexico in the future (sorry Elon, I don’t think I’ll be buying a Tesla robot) I just don’t know when, only that continual erosion will the norm. Hopefully amongst the managers slow enough so as not to cause widespread revolt.
$2,000+ for each citizen? Yeah, nothing wrong with that! (Except it smells like an experimental UBI for a month and will cause inflation. Besides, who’s paying for it? Will I need to submit my digital i.d. to claim? And what exactly counts as “high income”?)
