I’ve said for many years: Even if they could make technologies run on farts and laughter, they would figure our a way to meter them and charge you for it.
Best part about following this website for over a decade and finally becoming a paid subscriber? I now have access to all of the Part 2 presentations from past years!
Here’s a post from 2013 that’s relevant:
[embed]https://peakprosperity.com/the-really-really-big-picture/[/embed]
Soo, ok oil supply probably would be “artificially” reduced when is suitable.
Though in fact oil will be reduced on the long term.
So lets examine 3 Solutions.
- “Green” energy. It will be massively promoted after the COVID theater ends. Together with the “climate crisis”. For sure, we have huge ecologic problems all around the world. But its insane to only focus on CO2 emmisions. So every little deplorable will be pushed to reduce his CO2 footprint in order to “save the planet”. So we will be made to have and use less(not necessearily wrong) but it will be the “moral thing” to do. The main issue is that it’s Done top-down. Noone really cares about the masses. The 1% will still fly with their jets. Ok perhaps they will recycled Steel and 1/10 of the gas would be “green”.
It had already proven that Green energy cannot replace oil in the large scale. In fact despite the high use of green energy CO2 emmisions are more or less the same. + the Mass destruction of forests and mountains for Wind turbines… U can run but u cannot hide. “growth” will find you anywhere.
- Nuclear.
To maintain our enegy overconsumption nuclear seems the only viable alternative on the long term. There are important risks here also of course but i think its inevitable. - Degrowth
In fact esp the westerners consume too much energy and material for no reason. Partly, we really act as parasites on the planet but not in a symbiotic way clearly.
Degrowth is necesary. It can lower our energy demand and reduce the ecologic destruction.
A mixture of the 3 above Solutions based on grass roots movements would be the ideal. Solar panels and even mid-scale Wind turbines can be useful if used appropriately without destroying our environment. Eg if they are constructed in really deserted areas or in the top of our buildings.
- does anyone has good sources on the efficiency of nuclear and the level of threat to the environment?
" does anyone has good sources on the efficiency of nuclear and the level of threat to the environment?"Yes. We have actual historic reality to draw on. Chernobyl...Fukashima..etc. Nuclear power, when everything goes well, is very clean. When everything doesnt go well, its catastrophic. History, empirical evidence, and experience show us that things do go wrong. Nuclear "incidents" render huge swaths of the planet uninhabitable, indefinitely.
Having a hard time understanding why any price spike in oil is due to anything other than (mostly) supply chain disruptions caused by COVID and therefore is likely to be transitory. It seems to me that the thesis of much higher and sustained oil prices is predicated on forecasted increased demand based on rapid economic growth, which I don’t see happening.
I can see the price spiking short term due to supply and maybe stay high due to money debasement, but don’t see the demand side materializing -at least organically. Before COVID, the economies of the world were generally in slow down and crude was at ~$60. What has changed?
Based on my review of the numbers: the easy crude is gone. Chris is correct. The Oligarchy wants to save the remaining oil (going forward, extracted at great expense) for use in their private jets. Everything else is theater. I mean, that’s reductive, but - I think - largely correct.
The “climate” narrative is all about saving the remaining oil. “Climate change” is all about reducing all forms of energy consumption by the Plebes. This is a positive framing - “save the planet” - vs the negative framing: “we’re running out of oil!”
I remember the “running out of oil” narrative from the 2008-time period (PEAK OIL!!!), because it sure drove hoarding behavior. The new framing - “save the planet” - constructs a competition to reduce “carbon emissions.” The desired outcome among the Plebes: “I’m virtuous - I’m not ‘emitting carbon’.” This framing attempts to transform society into an intra-Plebe-competition to maximum virtue: “I’m saving the planet via self-lockdown.”
I think its pretty smart actually. Well, minus the “NO TREATMENTS FOR YOU” psychopathy. And the “Children of the Plebes Must Take The Shot Or ELSE!” Those don’t seem so beneficial.
But - what are you gonna do? Oligarchs gonna Oligarch. Our lives really aren’t real to them at all.
And those private jets don’t run on vapor.
The ivermectin meta-analysis by Tess’s group was released. I am not able to post links right now, but Trial Site News has an article.
Ivermectin for Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19 Infectio… : American Journal of Therapeutics (lww.com)
https://journals.lww.com/americantherapeutics/Abstract/9000/Ivermectin_for_Prevention_and_Treatment_of.98040.aspx
>> 1. Hand saws to replace my chainsaw [ I love silky saws ]
my neighbor just cut his leg with a chainsaw.
On the thigh, about 3/4 inch deep.
And he has 40 years’ experience using chainsaws.
I wanted to do a test cut using a hand saw. I cut a tree about 12 inches diameter that someone else had cut before. A non-rotted Doug fir very tall stump I guess, about 50 feet tall.
I used a ladder and cut it about 10 feet off the ground. I thought the bottom part might come in handy, like for supporting a tree room.
It took about a 1/2 hour. I guess I was about 58 when I did it.
Having the right & SHARP saw makes a big difference.
I think we need special tools, including liquid fuels like gasoline, to help move big loads of logs.
But I’ve heard too many accidents involving experienced people, with chainsaws.
One of the guys at the gym ran into a piece of metal and the saw ran up and ended severing his bicep. His wife, who was a nurse, sewed it back in place as a starter move.
A chain saw is a hell of a lot of power. I feel uncomfortable having that much cutting power near me without a serious partition in between.
(Just ask Dexter ! terrible dark TV wise-crack)
Saws are better. I sustaned a head injury from a chainsaw. My old lady was chasing me with one. I tripped and fell on concrete and hurt my head real bad while running away from her. When she saw the blood on the sidewalk, she lost control of the chainsaw and almost cut her toes off by acident.
I never saw it coming. (that is a play on words)
Chris, how about doing another podcast with Gail Tverberg?
Thank you Jim for the link! I am on this damn tablet for another couple of days. Let us hope this study moves the f’n needle a bit! Taibbi has also taken up the fight! Two articles in the last couple of days. One on Dr Pierre Kory and one on the censorship of Bret Weinstein. Please consider subscribing to Matt Taibbi’s sub stack. Encouraging him! He could be a great resource in this fight & we desperately need media voices. Sorry I cannot provide links… please seek out Matt’s latest & please help encourage him to go get his damn Pulitzer. It is there for the taking…
LBL, you are right about chainsaws I think years ago I read that chainsaws were one of the top causes of household accidents.
The thing is, I heat completely with wood…that takes about 6 good cords. While I could, theoretically, cut split and stack my wood by hand it would take a level of time and energy that would have to be taken away from something else.
Years ago the old homesteads were worked by lots of people which is why they had big families back in the day. A great set of historic treasures can be found in the works of Laura Ingles Wilder about homesteading and small farming back in the 1800’s both on the frontier [ Little House ] and on a small dairy farm in upstate NY [ “Farmer Boy” which recounts the life and times of her husband Almanzo [?] Wilder ].
Anyway, my point is that the work was divided between many hands. Modern families are smaller and one man can only do so much. Luckily we have the modern equipment to make up for it…unfortunately, that all relies on fuel.
Ive thought quite a bit about how I would manage my homestead in the absence of fuel. We’re talking about cutting splitting and stacking ALOT of wood by hand especially because we’d be cooking with wood. We’d need at least a couple of cow/calf combos and one good horse. That would be about 6 acres of hay, cut, dried and stored. We’d need a garden and it would have to be turned over by hand [ heavy hoe/spade ]. Ever turn a garden by hand? I turned a 30x30 plot over by hand once and it was BALLS.
I think with me and my wife [ who’s young strong and capable ] we could manage it but we’d probably just be getting by. If we had a couple of strong sons and a daughter? It would be like hitting the lottery in that kind of world.
So I remember Art Berman on PP last year sometime, and my general takeaway was that years of low capital investment (mainly starting around 2015) by the oil companies, plus pandemic shocks, would lead to higher oil prices in 2021. I recall that being the general narrative here too. Then a few months ago, I heard him on Eric Townsend’s Macro Voices kind of rolling that thesis back.
Here we are a year later, and gas prices are up, but not crazy ($3.18 per gallon here). And here’s another prediction for oil prices spiking “next year.”
I’m not being difficult, just trying to be intellectually honest and rigorous, as I know I have a bias toward “doom is right around the corner!” As I suspect many here do. But it’s hard to make the case to friends and family when I made the case last year, and it doesn’t appear to be coming true (yet?), and the current video does not address why that is the case. And I can probably go back 10 years on this site and find similar posts of impending doom. Did something change? Was it delayed somehow? Was there some factor that wasn’t accounted for at the time?
I’d love to see Peak Prosperity be more intellectually rigorous rather than pushing a narrative. I know we can do it, as we did it all of last year during lockdowns when we were forced to constantly flex as new info was presented.
(Btw I agree with the video and most of the above posts - just trying to think clearly through my own cognitive biases)
@dreinmund
That’s a good movie. Another one, if you haven’t seen it, is called “A crude awakening, life after the oil crash” I could say it was somewhat life changing when I saw it. Finally a logical explanation of fossil fuels. At the time I was living in oil rich Alberta and everyone there always told me oil will never run out (especially not in Alberta anyway) , they just buy from OPEC to use there’s up first (but it’ll never run out?) After that I started down the energy rabbit hole, few years later after the GFC My brother sent me a link to the crash course and it was explained even better.
OMG! The horror…I’ve been looking all over and can’t find them anywhere!
I’ve tried google, Amazon, Ebay, nada, el-zilcho. I drove to Target, Walmart, Tractor Supply. Dang it, gar nichts, waste of gas.
I just can’t find me a quality “Honey Badger Hat” for the big shing-ding this weekend at PolyFarms. I’m going to feel so out of place, sigh. Maybe some smart entrepreneur might have some for sale there…I’d really dig one in Kubota orange…
About the only thing I could find is a bunch of lavender-colored dress shirts and cheap dinner jackets with puffy shoulder pads. I thought about it, but then that’d probably be overkill for the farm and probably wouldn’t match my open-toed birkenstocks anyway.
;^)
I’m looking for John Deere Green
“
Venezuela is investing in crude oil production recovery and aims to boost its output four times by the end of the year, to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), Oil Minister Tareck El Aissami, a close ally to Nicolas Maduro, told Bloomberg in a recent interview.
“Without any financing, with our own money, we’ve been able to invest enough to stop the slide and start a gradual recovery,” El Aissami told Bloomberg.
Despite the sanctions and despite the severe crisis which became even more severe with the pandemic and plunge in oil prices last year, Venezuela claims it would quadruple its crude oil production and put an end to the incessant lines at all gas stations in the country holding the world’s largest crude oil reserves.
According to El Aissami, crude oil production in Venezuela has now exceeded 700,000 bpd, up from less than 400,000 bpd in the summer of last year when output plunged in the wake of the pandemic and the crash in oil prices.”
See https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Venezuela-Claims-It-Can-Quadruple-Its-Oil-Production-By-The-End-Of-2021.html
MGRS,
Just because it didn’t happen yet, doesn’t mean it’s a false prediction. I’m grateful for the years I’ve had to prepare. I’ve also come to realize the decline will be gradual and not off a cliff. It’s only hypothetical until it happens to you.
Brushhog: https://www.amazon.com/Milwaukee-Lithium-Ion-Brushless-Cordless-Tool-Only/dp/B07QFFVGLR/ref=asc_df_B07QFFVGLR/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=366290009890&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=12119919464938025248&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=t&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9008249&hvtargid=pla-987073848232&psc=1&tag=&ref=&adgrpid=80266838870&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvadid=366290009890&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=12119919464938025248&hvqmt=&hvdev=t&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9008249&hvtargid=pla-987073848232
Milwaukee M18 chainsaw, solar panels, 120v ac inverter
Can do most anything any normal chainsaw can do, and free power forever!
Yes, you make a good point MGRS. James Howard Kunstler has addressed why his predictions of doom circa 2005 didn’t come to pass: Oil investors lost a lot of money, but they made fracking possible. It was a case of bad investments being hyped that allowed society to keep running on the business as usual plan. Art Berman, I imagine would (or at least should) be able to explain why his shorter term prediction didn’t come to pass.