Quick post before I have to go clean the chicken coop & walk my dog.Everything in life involves risk, and when it comes to investing it’s all about assessing risks. And, keep in mind the strongest human emotion is fear....excessively so IMO. For such a long time I hear people saying “the stock market valuations are ridiculously high and it’s going to crash”. Combine this with the fact that the stock market and the real world economy have never been as divergent as they are now. I would suggest one need to step back and ask why this is. When the “obvious” isn’t so obvious then something is being missed. Yes, the markets “should have” cratered years ago. The mother of all markets is the UST market. It’s the most liquid market in the world & up until this year was considered by many to be the safest asset class in the world. The fact is the UST market is at the core of the melting down nuclear reactor which is fueling the everything bubble. People are fleeing the largest asset class in the world as that is a sinking ship. I’ll spare you the details, but just read a little bit of financial news which reflects the “crazy” things that are going on in the financial world...explosion of BTC, ever higher stock markets, TSLA to the moon, Put/call ratio at lowest point in over a decade, etc. Sure, gold/silver havens exploded but that’s because those prices are completely manipulation in the futures market. Long known precious metals manipulator whale JP Morgan just happened to come out with a downgrade of silver miners last Monday after the physical silver short squeeze was on put on over that precious weekend. There are physical silver shortages around the world, and silver just happens to be one of the most important industrial metals going forward in our highly technology driven society as silver is the best conductor of electricity and is in most electronics. So, if anyone still thinks the metals markets aren’t manipulated, then nothing else will ever convince them. Back to the markets. Stocks are required to go up or the US financial system would implode. Again, it’s the bond market that’s most important & if stocks go down, the bond market goes down. The US economy became hyperfinancialized via the USD being the reserve currency: US exported USDs and its manufacturing base to the rest of the world, and imported real stuff. It seemed like a great deal for such a long time....printing USDs in return for things like real oil, the most important commodity in the world. Over 66% of the economy is based on consumption. A large part of tax receipts come from the stock market. It’s not by happenstance that all things financial have gone up over the past 35 years: stocks, bonds, housing, etc. All rules, laws, incentives have been to keep propping up the system. The system is now hallowed out & empty...”can we have some N95 masks, please...pretty please?” Up until this past year the US debt was largely financed by foreigners, but Covid changed that and now < 5% is bought by foreigners. Bottom line, IMO stocks, commodities, EMs, farmland, cryptos, etc are all going much higher while the USD goes much lower over the long term. There might be some short term zig-zags, but long term I think the direction is clear. A word of caution on the cryptos, while they have **tremendous** upside potential the right side of their chart could end up looking like the graph a turkey prior to Thanksgiving of the the West ever outlaws/highly regulates them as there is a concern China, etc could weaponize them against the US. The control are would be the on/off ramps of the banks. That worldwide semiconductor shortage didn’t just pop up out of nowhere in Q4 2020, it paralleled the explosion of BTC. China & other countries have been massively mining the cryptos. All that doesn’t give me a good feel.
*******************************************
Thanks for that. It was well worth the read, Dryam.
The electrician is definitely more relaxed and happy, in fact I can objectively say he is better off in most regards. He rarely works an 8 hour day, and now that his contracting business is established he mostly just supervises.
This doesnt mean that every electrician is better off than every doctor, but it does suggest to me that becoming a doctor is no guarantee of financial or personal success.
Getting rich off the misfortunes of others, is putting a terribly negative spin on things. And primary care physicians working for corporate clinics don’t have particularly high incomes. Read up on it. Everyone in the American medical system is being taken advantage of…primary care physicians, patients etc…Corporate health insurance, corporate clinics. It’s a different world now. The only ones who have decent take home pay are specialists. Not to mention malpractice insurance. I am surprised there are any ob-gyn’s left in the U.S.
Thank you for rewriting what I wrote. I was in a huge rush & I was trying to spew my thoughts out as quick as I could. If I didn’t get the chicken coop cleaned up and finish some other chores before my wife got home it might have been more serious than a financial meltdown tomorrow. LOL
“A word of caution on the cryptos, while they have tremendous upside potential the right side of their chart could end up looking like the graph a turkey prior to Thanksgiving of the the West ever outlaws/highly regulates them as there is a concern China, etc could weaponize them against the US. The control are would be the on/off ramps of the banks. That worldwide semiconductor shortage didn’t just pop up out of nowhere in Q4 2020, it paralleled the explosion of BTC. China & other countries have been massively mining the cryptos. All that doesn’t give me a good feel.”
I guess you missed my post in the forums on Busting FUD. FUD is Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. Your warning above is loaded with a lot of it. “The right side of the chart could?” Well doc lot’s of things "could " . I would love a friendly wager on what you think about the turkey and what I think about the USD. Or better yet I will take an asteroid hitting earth and you take the turkey. Uh the US already regulates crypto. As a matter of fact if it gets more highly regulated it will be even more attractive to large institutional buyers which will drive up the price. Again a friendly wager ? The US outlaws Crypto and I will take an asteroid hitting the earth. What the hell I will put up one BTC current value $40 k against 20 $20 St Gaudens, just for fun. Now here is the hysterical one “China could weaponize them against the US " lol (have you been listening to Mike Green by any chance?) China doesn’t have to weaponize anything. The Fed and the US government are weaponized enough against"us”. Or they could stop supplying PPE, or 70% of the shit Amerikaans buy from them. So let me get this straight. China is going to weaponize a $700 billion market cap crypto against the US? Just how is that going to happen? If the US is that fragile I suggest there are bigger problems to deal with.Do you check under your bed before you get in? I have no idea what the whole semiconductor thing is. Yes China has been massively mining BTC for along time. What’s your point. It is a global network. Peter Thiel has a mining operation in Texas.Flared gas is being used to generate electricity. There are large mining operations in Iceland.You don’t feel good? Maybe you should see a doctor. Lol Just a joke.
So since you missed it listen to this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UhKkvN2qtg&feature=emb_logo
And thank you for your post about the current economy. I particularly like your thoughts about Bitcoin. Brilliant to be cautious right now. Bitcoin is most likely doomed to failure. Etheream is poised to do okay as it fills a different function.
There is no compelling reason to use Bitcoin if it becomes highly regulated. Governments will torque down more and more on it and soon. Gold is a better hedge against inflation right now but how much better is hard to tell. Bitcoin seems like a speculative frenzy.
Bitcoin is in a highly speculative mania right now. Whether or not it has any legs going forward is far from established. I like gold, I own gold but its become very clear just how massively manipulated the market is. I suspect gold may not really break out until the powers that be have lost control of the markets.
In a previous discussion thread, we saw how the residential real estate market holds many challenges and concerns of an increasing political nature. Commercial real estate is facing collapse with the lockdowns and unless that reverses [ and fast ] I wouldnt touch that market.
Whats left? An overpriced stock market who’s manipulated growth seems unsustainable…a zero yielding bond market?
The choice facing every investor right now is whether to gamble on the teetering market of their choice, or face inflationary oblivion in cash.
It is easy and understandable for people not involved to be ignorant of the crypto space. This leads to an irrational belief system and FUD. There is a over reliance on sensational media coverage not based in fact.
This is Hester Peirce is an SEC commissioner who speaks intelligently about the innovation in the crypto space. There is an assumption that the government will regulate crypto out of existence. The fact is that pension funds, endowments, insurance companies etc are sitting on the sidelines waiting for more regulation. Regulation actually makes for more clarity.
A little anecdote: 4 years ago I attempted to start a crypto custody company to custody tokens that would be insured by LLoyds of London. The insurance part was a piece of cake. The regulatory issue in the US was/is a nightmare. As witnessed in the response to SC2 there are 50 states with different approaches, there are different Federal agencies with different guidance. The situation is far worse in the crypto space. It was clear that it was not possible to move forward in the US. Less than 1 year later there was the first insured custodial business outside of the US. Moral of story? Regulatory clarity would have enabled a new business and more innovation creating jobs.Regulators understand this.
By all means do hang on to your Belief System and FUD. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JD5fgxy2DPk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECJODT9POnE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qmbvP4bZkM
“plans to accept,” is the key statement there. That’s not an endorsement. It’s a qualifier. In other words, if it manages to hold its value. It’s a statement of doubt, in recognition of its highly speculative nature.
“It is easy and understandable for people not involved to be ignorant of the crypto space. This leads to an irrational belief system and FUD. There is a over reliance on sensational media coverage not based in fact.” MMast
The best analytical work is produced by insiders and educated outsiders working together and reaching some kind of consensus. The outsider provides objectivity. The insider provides a fearless perspective that may act as a counter to an over abundance caution.
But, they certainly need each other.
I would never want to be one, ever, ever, ever. Not in the U.S. It’s a dream job in Canada with universal coverage. Still though, primary care physicians take on a huge burden of time, effort and financial debt.
I wonder what the future of medical care is going to be with billions of boomers getting old and feeble. It will be really tough to find a pc physician.
In Canada we have provincial government run HMOs with a monopoly (with all that entails) and it is highly politicized. Some specialty groups do better, some worse (than the US). We only look good when (selectively) compared to the US, and seen from afar; and do much worse than any Europeans. Of my cohorts, being able to retire when our peers do, is based, most often, on having some other financial boost.
The Canadian health care system has its share of problems. When looking for the ideal place to practice medicine I think you’d have to consider some of these massive clinics being built for American, Canadian, and European ‘patients without borders’. The Caribbean, Costa Rica, India and etc… This is a huge and growing industry capitalizing on the failures of the western health care systems. Waiting lists, insurance denials, and sky high costs have forced many people to go outside their countries to seek affordable health care. These are state of the art facilities with some of the best doctors in the world.
They are less burdened by politics, and less strangled by insurance interests. It is closer to a free market solution which usually benefits everyone [ except the government imposed middle men ].
With Tesla buying $1.5B BTC my conviction for BTC has gone up quite a bit. This purchase gives the green light broadly to large corporations & financial institutions of all sorts to put some of their large piles of cash into BTC. The price floor has gotten much, much firmer. Also, as institutional buying progresses the risk of government harming BTC get less & less.
Tesla just got slammed buy multiple Chinese regulators. Was the slam warranted? Who knows, but seems like a win:win for China: 1) they get to say Tesla is terrible so it boosts their EV companies, 2) puts pressure on the financial system as Tesla has become the behemoth darling stock of the US stock market (and has become a TBTF as it presents systemic risks). Seems very coincidental that China slams Tesla & Tesla buys BTC. Makes me wonder if the BTC purchase was a Hail Mary by Elon Musk. Also, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the purchase of BTC was actually induced by Fed, etc.
There was also a report Tesla was considering buying gold. That would completely shock me as that would be messing with the beast of all beasts as far as the US goes. There’s a few things the US government doesn’t tolerate such as selling oil or gas in a non-USD currency, and I suspect messing around with gold with big money is is very much frowned upon…especially an entity who has received a lot of money by the government. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-china-idINKBN2A818V
missing the value added insider updates and other great content i’ve come to expect.
i turn to PP to keep me aware of what’s coming…right now i feel like we’re really falling behind.
You absolutely nailed it. I had a medical travel business for a number of years. I facilitated people traveling to other countries for everything from hip replacements to dental implants.
Anecdote I had an implant done in India for $250. The crown $200. The best hip surgeon in the world is Vijay Bose in Chennai India. 6 days in a state of the art facility (with a companion) for less than $10 k.
I only worked with JCI accredited hospitals. I worked with the Apollo Hospital group which is the largest hospital group in Asia. When I was in India only 14 % of the population had health insurance. There is no Medicare or Medicaid. But I paid for an appendectomy for my watchman and it was $125. At least 50% of the cost of health care in this country is administrative.
I went to Thailand to sign up hospitals and went to Bumrungrad Hospital in Bangkok. It is state of the art. The pharmacy is robotics. Your prescription arrives with your picture on the bottle to prevent mixups. Their is a computer terminal in every room to pull up your chart. The rooms are like hotel suites. The ratio of RN’s to patients is 1:1 Standing outside limo after limo with oil sheiks pulled up to the curb. They ended up building a hospital in Dubai.
The truth I learned is people will go overseas the first time because it is cheaper. They will go back because it is better.