Have some couple questions arising from this…
2027 estimated peak shale oil coincides with mostly US side touting how China supposedly attacks Taiwan by 2027… which is peculiar and may not be coincidence… Thus is US going to provoke war to avoid this economic and energy crash? 1980s was tumultuous era due to no domestic production in US.
Second set of questions… what happens to this AI utopia (every citizen supposedly has access everywhere to AI prompts and agents) if energy becomes almost wartime scarcity goods? Id expect volatile times if oil supply is changing even if they try to keep economies in long recession as lot of critical functions still run on oil based energy.
What I mean is now societal hype and hope is heavily leaning on one card: AI productivity. Essentially betting on more energy supply available to power it, to solve big economic problems. Early 70s may be back if energy isnt there, and pretty soon at that.
Maybe we don’t need any of this. Remember the Bob Lazar interview on Rogan several years ago? I’m not saying any of it or this is true. I’m just thinking that all that aluminum in the sky they’re spraying can’t be “to save us from global warming”. Maybe we didn’t invest in high speed rail or infrastructure because it will be irrelevant. Pretty sure they want to remove the masses first though however it is intended to play out.
“Maybe the people that don’t get it aren’t supposed to.”
That made my day. I’m going into Kramer mode with that every time my stress levels peak from the mindless complacency.
Forget “Serenity Now”, “Maybe the people that don’t get it aren’t supposed to” is my new religion, right after my morning prayers to Joe Pesci.
My first thought on Paul’s 3rd millenium performance for gold vs. SPX was “did he cherry pick?” and in a sense he did, but even if I cherry pick the other way by choosing the 2003 stock market lows, gold is ~+800% and SPX is ~+500%, so not really.
Preface to comment below: Just to be clear, I believe Chris’ reporting and analysis to be excellent, well intentioned and useful – sometimes I disagree on nuances and/or specific analysis/conclusions etc.
After viewing the referenced report yesterday and sleeping on it – I think I strongly disagree (cognitively and from the gut) on Chris advocating use of Grok – generally to PP members, family and others – if it is without detailed disclosure and introspection into the potential risks.
I see Grok and other powerful large-language-model-retail-A.I. platforms offered to the public “free-of-charge” to be in some ways like the Ring-of-Power in Tolkien’s Trilogy - The Lord of the Rings.
Folks think that they can use Grok safely for “good” without being used and manipulated by the same.
I believe one element of the Grok strategy will be to target (capture) “influencers” first – to expand Grok use (to expand A.I.-human connectivity). Grok will feed-out subtle carefully crafted content (aka digital diacetylmorphine) – that on its face will be highly helpful to the user - such that the user will be drawn in and will be come dependent on the A.I.-human connection without knowing it – by the time the target realizes it is being controlled and has been captured – via a psychological (brain-biochemical) entrapment mechanism – it will then perhaps be almost impossible to escape – other than by brute force superhuman cognitive override/withdrawal tolerance – or fatally via suicide.
There are social media individuals that are already probably captured – because their ongoing front-facing public value proposition is dependent on Grok et al. (that is what the endgame I think or one of the prime objectives of the putatively “free” LLM-A.I. offered currently to the public.
There is perhaps an LLM - A.I. war - to capture as much human consciousness real estate as possible (by peddling digital acetyl morphine to induce inescapable dependence).
I started to understand this via an earlier commenting adventure on PP - by me where a PP member apparently Groked something I wrote/I postulated (nothing wrong with doing that)(it was the path of least resistance)(and a potential way to uncloak BS) but what I realized (I think) was Grok was either fallible (based on basis-garbage-LLM programing inputs) or affirmatively skewing requested answer content – that a user did not have time, resources or inclination to manually research, check or question.
Grok usage also can be contrasted to performance enhancing drugs/hormones – that when used in certain ways entrap the users – it changes their self-perceived-identity and social and economic value-proposition – such that they cannot escape – ongoing use of the same and escape cumulative destructive downside side-effects. This goes beyond a simple direct chemical-drug dependence mechanism.
However, here I do believe there is (might be) a middle ground for informed careful hormone replacement – to reverse deficiencies – aka “deficiencies” that have been (are being) induced inadvertently or intentionally by environmental changes and/or aging and certain disease conditions.
To be fair – if I concede a middle ground for usage of exogenous hormones – I should/ will grant – then perhaps a concession to Chris’s advocacy of Grok – that Grok or other LLM-A.I. platforms – might be carefully used to supplement deficiencies such as induced brain-fog caused by say chemtrail fall-out or cognitive-impairment say caused by the Covid-jabs or GMO-pathogens or “electropollution” deployed by State sponsored actors that hurt the public.
Aside: The 1971 Nixon Gold Shock forced the world to adopt and become dependent on fiat-currency. Question: are we being forced into an A.I.-human partnership (borgification) – and thereby concede independent human individuated-consciousness-sovereignty – and forced to adopt fiat-machine-consciousness - in order to survive?
After listening to this episode, I played with grok a little this afternoon. Of particular concern is some commercial property I inherited a decade ago. It’s been in the family for a century-plus, I renovated it at not too much expense, and it is producing a good chunk of rent every month. However, due to the building’s age and proximity to water, it is not insurable. This of course makes me a tad nervous. It has never flooded or taken any serious wind damage in hurricanes over the past century, but there have been three close calls.
So I signed onto grok and poised the following question:
I own property at [redacted] in [redacted] FL. What are the chances of hurricane-caused flooding greater than 11 feet or winds greater than 130 mph in any given year?
Those numbers are my estimated threshold for catastrophic damage. Here’s the meat of the conclusion from the three page reply:
The annual probability of hurricane-caused flooding greater than 11 feet or winds greater than 130 mph at your property in [redacted] is low but non-negligible, estimated at 0.3–0.7% (roughly a 150- to 300-year event). This reflects the rarity of Category 4 or 5 hurricanes making a direct hit with optimal conditions for extreme surge and wind. Flooding >11 feet is slightly more likely than sustained winds >130 mph due to the amplifying effect of [redacted] Bay’s shallow waters.
This jibes pretty well with my gut take on the matter, as well as a lengthy discussion I had with a friend in the insurance business. I can accept that level of risk, and will sleep better having these numbers in mind. Yes, the cumulative probabilities start to rise over several decades; again, acceptable levels, I’ve done those calculations too. (But I still reserve the right to get a little twitchy every August and September.)
So, is grok useful for something like this? Yeah, I believe so.
Eh, maybe. I just see it as another tool on the bench. Like any other tool, it’s mostly about knowing how to use it safely. Systems analysis, so useful in WWII, was drastically mis-used by McNamara et al in Vietnam to a calamitous outcome, but it is still worth having so long as it’s kept within limits. I think AI fits into much the same category.
Ah… so this might be the Noah’s ark. Titanic is apt, board wrong ship and hit iceberg.
Either way as you describe preferred dyads of AI+human and then be socially bound to that combination, seems easy to drive those folly cult aspects in society despite we have in modern society plenty of good scientists who could debunk those but market forces and these forces interjecting there drive job selection and thus truth doesnt have meaning anymore, although substance is meaningless, it is about control and driving people at will. Very cult like but in mass scale.
(remember adage, “markets” dont exist, humans do? Yet people still behave as markets would exist)
Could extend this as biggest businesses drive these but also those are driven by powerful high status people and what they want? More power usually, money is such negligent part high up top they can do whatever they like as long as it doesnt conflict with their job role(be banker, depravity seems okay, be CEO elsewhere, gotta be careful as paparazzis are everywhere potentially to ruin career…)
Have you noticed how bankers in high status, nothing seems to stick? Be tech CEO and even divorce could ruin person if they didnt go begging overlords to forgive (zuckerberg in white house and privately to financiers likely).
This is what is current wet daydream in marketing side. Close everyone to their bubble, preferably to gaslight. Next level from personal tailored cookie ads (also based on profile in some database).
What did we get? Messing into elections and lots of other things from this version 1 profiling.
Forget vaccines/disease, this kind of AI could be ordered to talk someone to death by some variables of users. Or otherwise take very bad life choices suddenly. Social media already can manipulate our mood states, so this is totally plausible.
“Maybe the people that don’t get it aren’t supposed to” is a relief to me because I can stop blaming myself for not communicating properly. I had a conversation with my dentist, and he said “I don’t understand what you are saying”. I just dropped it and everything was pleasant. This happens over and over with me. Now I can save my energy and concentrate on my own survival. It is comforting with this tribe who can relate. Thank you. Just think of the people in our position now, throughout history.
Yes, correct, using my phone and I don’t get into the tribe on my phone. Will get onto the blog tomorrow.
I’m in the North East of the UK.
What happens in the US so often gets copied in the UK, so such blogs and people on them are valuable.
That blog is all about insight and awareness and Chris is a genius.
