There is a expression the people have that are about to loose there medicare and housing help, it is called hustling backwards.
We had quiet moment in the ED Friday night / early Saturday morning about 2:00 am and the staff was sitting about. One nurse made a comment something about “those crazy doomsday preppers.” Stirring the pot, I chimed in and asked him how reliable he thought that a just-in-time food distribution system with only 3 day food reserves in the local stores was, and whether it really made sense to trust his life to its infallibility.
He stopped. You could see the wheels turning.
Surprisingly several co-workers popped out of the woodwork revealed themselves as preppers.
- Susan said “It is brittle. The whole thing could go down just like that” snapping her fingers. One or two nuclear blasts high in the atmosphere would take down the entire national grid. She and her boyfriend had just gone to a seminar by a retired special forces soldier on how to stay alive when the electrical grid collapses. She came home with a list.
- Rebecca admitted that the reason she moved out into the country to start a hobby farm and raise chickens is so that her family will have food in the event “things keep going the way they are headed.”
- Jason believes we are well into “the end times.” He has a biblical mind set and stores food water and solar panels. He preps, but not so much that he will become a target for thieves.
- Courtney’s sister is Mormon and she increased her 1 years food stores to include not just for her own family but also for several relatives.
For the first time I can recall, the entire group stopped and really listened. There was an Oh Sh*t What Have I Been Missing look on a couple of faces. But there were enough of us that it no longer seemed to be just that crazy guy … It was in the open.
The herd had turned.
“I have a well. If the electrical system stopped we wouldn’t have water.” Others didn’t know that the local hilltop water tanks that feed the city would only last 3 days and that an intact electrical grid was needed to refill them. No electricity–> no tap water. I showed her the 1,000 gallon poly tank we put in our side yard, the hand pump and told her about the rainwater collection project we are doing. On the average, our area gets enough rainwater to sustain a household.
Myths were discussed. “I have a gun and I’ll just take what I need.” “No you won’t, Josh. You are a decent human being and a devout Christian. You will not be murdering your neighbors to steal their food.” He looks down and knows I’m right. “Being able to shoot someone may indeed be an essential skill, but it won’t protect you from being shot. You need to hunker down at home while the other people are out shooting each other. Stored food and water let you shelter in place to ride out the initial weeks/month of chaos.”
“Maybe I should get a generator?” "For a short term crisis that is a great idea. But if a crisis is prolonged gas won’t be available. The trucks will stop delivering gas and the electric pumps won’t work. And the noise of a running generator announces to everyone that a prepper lives here. A few solar panels and inverter can run a few appliances, like a freezer and an electric drill, during the middle of sunny days. Mostly though, we will all go Amish.
“Our house will be fine: we have natural gas.” Uhhhh. How do you think the natural gas gets into the pipelines and stays pressurized? Oh.
How will I wash my clothes? How will I take a shower?
The prepper herd had enough mass that those who are not able to think outside the group consensus could consider the ideas.
UrbanPlanner,
My intent was not to be disparaging to the question of how long can the CB’s keep printing & keep things propped up, nor did I disregard the question of comparing the U.S. to Japan. I offered my opinion to why a comparison between the countries is fruitless…massive ongoing trade deficits by the U.S. since the 1980’s, the USD being the reserve currency, distinctly different cultures, Japan being a large creditor nation at the start of their follies while the U.S. was already a massive debtor nation. I’m all ears when it comes to counter commentary. I’m just as much of an amateur financial hack as most others at this site. However, a group’s collective knowledge & IQ far exceeds any individual’s. Back & forth dialogue can be very productive. I"m not sure I understand your echo chamber commentary. The questions of how long the CB’s can keep things propped up have been ongoing by pretty much all market participants since 2009. It is the ubiquitous (and resounding echo chamber) question. Any answer is going to be very complex & very incomplete. Answers to when, how, & why things might crash are most likely going to be found within many pieces of the puzzle from innumerable sources.
We are all in this together.
Peace
There are no less than 13 speeches by Fed officials this week. Why all the financial babble? I suspect there may be a coordinated effort to talk the markets in particular directions such as equities up, USD up, long bonds down, gold/silver down, and USD/JPY up. Let’s see how this week plays out.
davefairtex wrote:
derelict-
"And so again we come back to why kapoom now, what is the trigger, or are these warnings the proverbial broken clock."Sometimes things can be seen in advance, and sometimes they can't. I think its worth exploring which one we might be dealing with here. Archduke Franz Ferdinand shot -> World War 1 -> Effective End of the British Empire. Outcome: Not predictable in advance.
-I.S. Bloch, Polish industrialist and banker, 1911
“To pursue war as a form of resolution is to pursue folly for even a victorious warring power will suffer extraordinary economic, social, and financial loss on a scale unknown in human history” --Norman Angell, British author and member of Parliament, 1910.
None of this undermines your original point, DaveF. Like the intellectuals and people-with-brains-being-utilized in the early 1900s, we can all see the trends and where they are headed, as well as likely outcomes of all this. However what none of us can say for sure is which Archduke will be shot by which teenage idealist with lucky aim.
dryam2000 wrote:
There are no less than 13 speeches by Fed officials this week. Why all the financial babble? I suspect there may be a coordinated effort to talk the markets in particular directions such as equities up, USD up, long bonds down, gold/silver down, and USD/JPY up. Let's see how this week plays out.
sand_puppy wrote:
For the first time I can recall, the entire group stopped and really listened. There was an Oh Sh*t What Have I Been Missing look on a couple of faces. But there were enough of us that it no longer seemed to be just that crazy guy .... It was in the open.
The herd had turned.
Now I am terrified. When a certain percentage of people come to realize the boiling pot of water we are all sitting in, it is usually far past the point where too many of our cells have already died. It also represents a key tipping point Chris and Adam have been saying is a key tipping point.
dryam2000 wrote:
There are no less than 13 speeches by Fed officials this week. Why all the financial babble? I suspect there may be a coordinated effort to talk the markets in particular directions such as equities up, USD up, long bonds down, gold/silver down, and USD/JPY up. Let's see how this week plays out.
snydeman-
Here’s a thought. Is it possible that we may be seeing survivor bias in those quotes you’ve identified?
Consider: with 20/20 hindsight, we can fish around among all the predictions made by everyone, everywhere, and select the people who predicted things that actually came true. Boy were they smart. Or maybe just lucky in that their correct predictions were remembered and selected. How many incorrect predictions did these same people have?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy
My sense from my study of the period was, the prevailing sentiment was the war would be over in one season. Nobody had any concept of 4 years of slogging trench warfare, mainly because it had never happened before. This showed up all sorts of ways, especially in the tactics used. It took years for that to sort itself out. Would the British have changed course if they’d known it would mean the end of their Empire within 35 years time? They went from “The Sun Never Sets” biggest creditor nation reserve currency to a broke little island in 35 years. I do not think they saw that coming.
But I digress. 
So, we have essentially random precipitating events, and foreseeable events with possibly unpredictable outcomes. That’s my model.
“Who knew that Archduke would cause a global war?” Random precipitating event.
“We can see that war might come - the stresses are there - but if it does, it will be over by Christmas.” Foreseeable event, but unpredictable outcome. (“home by Christmas” vs 4 years of trench warfare that bankrupted the country.)
Market correction vs a 1987-like flash crash that ends up causing a derivatives “problem.”
As somebody totally bereft of solutions I’d pathetically like to suggest we keep an eye out for what Henry Kissinger gets up to. I believe Henry may be road testing these esoteric life-extension techs and more importantly he’s still connected into where the heavy action is. Wasn’t he seen in China recently?
Alternatively, and on mature reflection, I am also available for stoning if that would help?
Cornelius999 wrote:
As somebody totally bereft of solutions I'd pathetically like to suggest we keep an eye out for what Henry Kissinger gets up to. I believe Henry may be road testing these esoteric life-extension techs and more importantly he's still connected into where the heavy action is. Wasn't he seen in China recently?
Alternatively, and on mature reflection, I am also available for stoning if that would help?
Cornelius, please take a ticket and join the [rather lengthy] queue. That man is odiousness personified.
Yes Locksmith, but " Where’s there muck there’s brass".
Now to show my prowess as an historian I suggest that anyone checking " military history now/ ww1 will find that Fredreich Engles predicted a war that would last 3/4 yrs. 10 million dead, and topple european dynasties. So yes Dave, prediction is possible.
Lest Error Persist: I didn’t want to stone Henry. Merely that I might be suitable canditate ( in jest! ) I do of course realize there’s a mob out to get him; I’d like him to have a trial first.
davefairtex wrote:
Here's a thought. Is it possible that we may be seeing survivor bias in those quotes you've identified?
Consider: with 20/20 hindsight, we can fish around among all the predictions made by everyone, everywhere, and select the people who predicted things that actually came true. Boy were they smart. Or maybe just lucky in that their correct predictions were remembered and selected. How many incorrect predictions did these same people have?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy
davefairtex wrote:
My sense from my study of the period was, the prevailing sentiment was the war would be over in one season. Nobody had any concept of 4 years of slogging trench warfare, mainly because it had never happened before. This showed up all sorts of ways, especially in the tactics used. It took years for that to sort itself out. Would the British have changed course if they'd known it would mean the end of their Empire within 35 years time? They went from "The Sun Never Sets" biggest creditor nation reserve currency to a broke little island in 35 years. I do not think they saw that coming.
You are entirely correct. The prevailing opinion and common meme was that the war was not predictable, that it would end in glorious victory in short order, and that there was nothing that could have been done to prevent it. Hell, people cheered when the damned conflict broke out. Alas, stupidity and ignorance are a trait of our species when combined with civilization and large numbers, I fear. So I should amend my overall point to say that while the vast majority of nincompoops in any given European country did not see it coming, there was a fairly significant host of people who did. The tragedy of history is that no one listened to those voices of reason. I believe I can speak for many of us here at PP by saying “we can relate.”
davefairtex wrote:
But I digress. :)
Some of the cops I work with (90% of whom have high school educations) are starting to wake up too. There’s a group of 5 of us who call ourselves “The Silver Bullion Gang” who have been investing in silver for three years together. More and more people are dropping the ridicule and asking questions indicating dawning awareness. They’re not up to discussions about our monetary system, the Federal Reserve, etc, but they do sense the threat to their “guaranteed” city pensions and that they should start simplifying their lifestyles and saving for “a rainy day,” if not yet a collapse of the economy and stock market. They know they’re being ripped off though they’d have trouble explaining how and by whom. And being cops they’re particularly attuned to the gathering nastiness and violence that appears to be on our near horizon and are preparing for what we joke about as “the zombie apocalypse.”
A family member of mine has a front row seat to the teachers pension crisis going on in Illinois. The math simply does not add up and she is awake enough to see the writing on the wall. Once you loose faith in your state government it isn’t that hard to make the leap to the federal government… Illinois problems may be a ‘blessing’ of early awakening to the big predicament the US will soon face.
During most of human history, Net energy to society has increased, thus fueling our development from nomadic to agrarian to industrial civilisation. Mankind’s energy ascent. Economics as we know it today assumes that we are still in energy ascendancy. At some point in the future, we will start our energy descent and no amount of efficiency savings will disguise this fact. The economic theory of our energy descent will be very different from the economic theory of today.
We are starting to see this now. It will be a World where an increasing population will decrease national GDP rather than increase it and immigration becomes a problem. Where social mobility will stop and unrest increase. Where Nations compete for natural resources rather than cooperate. Where Nations fight to preserve their GDP by making others fail and migration from failed states increase.
The outcome is ‘Winner takes All’ taken to it’s logical conclusion before the winner itself gets sucked down the energy descent whirlpool or maybe a failed nuclear state will decide that it is preferable to have no Winner.
climber99 wrote:
The outcome is 'Winner takes All' taken to it's logical conclusion before the winner itself gets sucked down the energy descent whirlpool or maybe a failed nuclear state will decide that it is preferable to have no Winner.Are you trying to take my self-proclaimed crown of “most pessimistic on PP?” I clearly need to step up my game! 
Oh, and I agree. This is my greatest fear as well: a nuclear exchange. I suppose the silver lining of that scenario is we won’t have to worry about survival then, because we’d all be dead either immediately or within a few months.
For those trying to find this past weekend’s discussion (3/25/17), they’ve replaced the video, here’s the new link…
I meant no offense. I apologize if I provided offense. I, too, am not an expert, unless you’re looking for someone to explain the fine nuance of a zoning code. I’m a terribly good technocrat but hopelessly bad at bureaucracy and politics, hence my self employed live or die on your own merits career.
It’s obvious to anyone paying even the slightest attention the train we’re on is rapidly heading for the wall. And I don’t think we have the time or the will to slow it down in anywhere near the way we need to to avoid total catastrophe. However, and here’s the thing that lurks in the back of my head when I think about it, even though we aren’t Japan, I do think there’s an object lesson to be had. It isn’t the specifics of who’s a ward of the petro dollar or how the reserve currency plays into it. It’s some other something constantly working to keep us afloat on our leaky raft. I just keep watching the plunge protection folks fly in at the 11th hour or the suppression of precious metals prices, or the increasingly hysterical propaganda, or a ton of other insidious plays by innumerable actors that make me think maybe this could be propped up for a very long time, maybe even long enough for us to do some good. Our dominant narrative keeps most of us completely deaf to increasingly loud warnings and blind to the obvious. In city planning we have a phrase to describe what we do, muddling through. I’m wondering at our creative ability to muddle through long past when the wheels should have come off.
The other thing is an intense desire not to see us crash and burn. Personally, I’d very much like to believe my teenage son won’t be living in some Pacific Northwest version of Kunstler’s world made by hand. I’d like to believe his future won’t suck. And, I’m a committed public servant. Whenever I think our only solution is to run off and live on homesteads and leave 90% or more of everybody to die of starvation, violence, pandemics or whatever, it galls me. We need to take our knowledge and passion and work to preserve more than just our own selfish interests and the privileged few.
So when I talk about echo chambers, it’s that. It’s the PP narrative of the crash is coming, soon, and you’d better take care of you and yours while the unstated part of the message silently damns everybody else. That’s not on you Dryam. That’s me being a lot less practical and lot more bleeding heart than it’s safe to be. And possibly a little optimistic, too. I very much apologize is I’ve offered cause for offense.
UrbanPlanner wrote:
The other thing is an intense desire not to see us crash and burn. Personally, I'd very much like to believe my teenage son won't be living in some Pacific Northwest version of Kunstler's world made by hand. I'd like to believe his future won't suck. And, I'm a committed public servant. Whenever I think our only solution is to run off and live on homesteads and leave 90% or more of everybody to die of starvation, violence, pandemics or whatever, it galls me. We need to take our knowledge and passion and work to preserve more than just our own selfish interests and the privileged few.
But know you aren’t alone in this.
UrbanPlanner wrote:
So when I talk about echo chambers, it's that. It's the PP narrative of the crash is coming, soon, and you'd better take care of you and yours while the unstated part of the message silently damns everybody else. That's not on you Dryam. That's me being a lot less practical and lot more bleeding heart than it's safe to be. And possibly a little optimistic, too. I very much apologize is I've offered cause for offense.