Will We See A New Covid-19 Spike Soon?

State lockdowns lifting across the US. businesses and public spaces opening back up. Mass protests bringing thousands together in close quarters.

Will we see a resurgence in covid-19 infections as a result? Unknown at this moment, but we shouldn’t have long to wait. Chris predicts we’ll know one way or the other within the next 3 to 5 weeks.

As the nation waits, we’ll undoubtedly see more symptoms of the social rifts that the pandemic has exacerbated. Trust in authority has been badly shaken: from the response from the Administration/CDC/WHO, to the “garbage science” tilting the scales towards Big Pharma’s interests, to the current protests against the police, to the deeply unfair repercussions of the Federal Reserve’s rescue of the rich – the populace is waking up to the fact that our “leaders’” actions are out of integrity with the public welfare.

Where will this growing unrest take us? Unknown at this point, but similar to covid-19, we may not have long to wait to find out.

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This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://peakprosperity.com/will-we-see-a-new-covid-19-spike-soon/

So far as I’ve seen no one in mask denial has ever shown any data, only assertions. A writer I generally follow was calling people not wearing a mask “heroic”. I guess this is the same heroic as a policeman not wearing a bullet vest and me not using seat belts.

If the story put forth in the link below is true, there should be indictments.
It is alleged that the Lancet article on hydroxychloroquin, later retracted, was simply a fraud committed by Big Pharma on the Lancet. A Lancet official is quoted as saying:
“Now we are not going to be able to, basically, if this continues, publish any more clinical research data because the pharmaceutical companies are so financially powerful today, and are able to use such methodologies, as to have us accept papers which are apparently methodologically perfect, but which, in reality, manage to conclude what they want them to conclude,” said Lancet EIC Richard Horton.

I think you mean 3-5 weeks, not 305 weeks! But maybe 305 just to be safe? :slight_smile: Feel free to remove this post once that is corrected.

I’ve had two thoughts about this subject of “seasonality” which is raised occasionally in the media and “expert” prognostications. As if we’ve been waiting for a summertime lull in new cases.
I need to study more about the flu transmissions, and why it seems to go into remission, and this of course is why the question is applied to Covid.
We all saw those global maps which at first showed the most affected zones in the temperate latitudes, and the latency figures for similar viruses to reside on various surfaces. Some of us put our masks, groceries and other purchases in 9-day isolation bins just in case surface particles had entered our homes.
But if someone breathes a load of inoculum into your breathing passages, it isn’t going to matter what climate zone you’re in, is it? Maybe the particles will catch some humidity, travel less distance, and fall to the floor sooner than in a cooler environment? But human to human transmission seems to be the main event.
So, to me, the idea of seasonality depends mostly on a longer surface survival time of virus particles in a cool, dry climate, and even that ends after a short time period, certainly not two or three months. And depends on later conveyance by hand to another’s facial orifices, right? (Chris’s admonitions had me breaking the face-touching habit almost immediately. Thanks to him for removing that area of anxiety!)
Seasonality, whenever mentioned, still baffles me.
And then people raise the suggestion that the serious outbreak in Brazil somehow disproves seasonality, because it is seen mostly as a tropical climate. No, that can’t be it, if human to human transmission is the mechanism in the highly touch-oriented cultures of Latin America. The two modes of transmission can operate separately, or in parallel, under differing geographies and cultures, without one disproving the other. That’s just lazy logic.
But then, the other question about it is the idea that it is harbored in the Southern Hemisphere and somehow migrates northward in the Fall. Huh?
First of all, South Africa and Brazil are hardly wintry climates to begin with. New Zealand has cleared its cases, and I doubt will be inviting visitors back very soon. Chile is having a bad outbreak, Argentina and Uruguay less so, Australia as well, and the “wintry” zones of those countries are hardly populated.
So are the forecasters of “seasonality” anticipating a large tourist influx from Chile and South Africa, and wouldn’t these be flights that would be monitored severely in a milder pandemic period? If there was any truth before to this South-North reinfection as to the flu viruses, it still has to involve people-to-people transmission, and world travel now has been nearly stopped.
Is this verified as the normal flu transmission scenario? I just don’t see who is harboring these viruses for later spread.
If the normal flu mutates, and takes off again in the cooler season, then that is a side input from an already localized source, isn’t it? Not an re-introduction from down Southwards.
In my first couple years visiting Central America, I got sick three times, up to a week like a normal flu. Maybe one additional time in the dozen years since. Immunity, I assume. But that is the local semi-tropical climate. No souvenirs to bring home.
Maybe 20% or less of humanity lives south of the Equator, and much fewer of those in temperate zones of seasonality. I just wonder if it is sloppy scientific assumption that ascribes this fact of geography to the suspicion of seasonality? The combination and promulgation of these ideas of seasonality seem to be possibly veering into the realm of popularized junk science. But I would welcome further explanation.
Maybe I’ll be less lazy and explore my own questions later, but I’m more curious about other things at the moment.
I guess a lot of this, though, falls under the “Second Wave” speculation, so I’m guessing we’ll be hearing more about whether and how this might occur.

This author makes a good point that the latest snafu with the WHO is actually a misrepresentation of what Ms. Van Kerkhove said. So, while that organization might have a lot to answer for, this might not be one of them.

Today, I was sitting in the Sam’s club parking lot…wondering if we have done all we can do to get ready for the next wave (both on a personal level and as a community). Las Vegas was spared for the most part. Why were we not one of the metropolitan dumpster fires on the first round? With the nature of the CV and Vegas culture, we should have been. Now we are opening the casinos back up…how big will the jump be? Occupied hospital beds and ICU spots are relatively low number for now…
But my big question is when do we start calling the glove box in vehicles the mask box?

Another ball park knock out. It never occurred to me that the eye injuries were actually aimed for. I’m not a gun person and just automatically assumed the eye shots were random accidents.
Now I’m wondering how many rubber-bullet-eye-injuries have been reported across the country? I know about police brutality, but shooting people in the eyes on purpose? Scary.
As for those lousy studies in the Lancet, that’s nothing new, and the harm coming from it by not treating Covid19 patients with HCQ + Zinc timely is a drop in the bucket compared to the harm caused by the CDC vaccine mandates in this country and across the globe. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/hcp/imz/child-adolescent.html
Just imagine owning a product that every single person in the country was mandated to take multiple times throughout that person’s minority, where you did not have to advertise your product, where you could not be sued in a court of law if your product hurt someone (562 U.S. 233(2011), and where any claims for harm by your product are paid by tax payers and only under very narrow circumstances?
Welcome to Big Pharma’s vaccine industry.
What did Charlie Munger say?
Big Pharma is also the reason we have shit for news because they lobbied for the right to advertise directly to the consumer. Now, because of its deep pockets, Big Pharma controls the media’s content upon threat of de-advertising/de-funding and slander lawsuits.
Big Pharma also pretty much owns and operates, determines the curriculum, for most medical schools… or that funding could be diverted somewhere else.
Junk science? Par for the course. These journals cannot function without Big Pharma’s advertising dollars and the editors are either part of the revolving door phenomenon or are threatened with pulling advertising funding.
Big Pharma will ruin people personally if the bottom line is threatened. Research Dr. Andrew Wakefield - outside the Matrix.
This is what you’ll find inside the Matrix: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wakefield

Hi Chris
Have you done a review on this Blood Type A finding?

Thank you for this article. Uh, it’s hard to tell if this guy is really this ignorant or just playing dumb. I’d guess the latter, since the story became international news that they got caught publishing crap. But I’m sure it’s been happening for years, he’s just trying to save face.
Corruption of scientific research by Big Pharma has been pretty well known for a couple of decades now. I have corresponded with several people who, like me, got out of the industry because it was endemic in the field.
In fact, the more I think about it, Horton is just as corrupt as the rest of them. I would guess that he has accepted many favors, steak dinners, concert tickets, box seats at sports stadiums, and paid vacations from Big Pharma sales reps. I don’t doubt he has a very fat bank account as well. Investigative journalism is dead. We should have seen expose stories of the fat cats in science research and publications like the Lancet profiting off of the graft of the pharmaceutical companies everywhere. F.U. Horton.

Horton’s statement was made to someone at the New England Journal of Medicine.
He really should have been talking to the police.

I live in the SE. My state has had the best numbers all along. My county has had very good numbers. The state is experiencing a large spike. My county is leading that spike. 1.5 weeks ago we had 114 cases total. Since then we have seen an increase of over 10x.
Talking about a 2nd wave here seems premature. We are just now having our first wave. I don’t go out much but it seems a lot of people are not wearing masks. I get the impression people are “over it”. The local college has not announced anything about classes but a prof I know has been told to prepare for both face to face and online classes.

There is a report that an OSU student died after the protests in Columbus. It is possible it was due to tear gas. It is an innocuous name for a dangerous chemical weapon. (we blew up Iraq for supposedly using chemical weapons)
It does not just cause “tears”

When you go through military boot camp you are put into a gas chamber with CS gas (tear gas). Your eyes water, you snot up and it makes some people puke but healthy people don’t die from it. It is NOT a pleasant experience and I would not want to have that experience again however, it is nowhere close to real chemical weapons like VX, mustard gas, and other nasty things created by humans.


After two days of marching, rioting, looting and vandalizing on State Street in Madison, a poll of store owners was taken. 40 of the 140 stores polled said that the vandalism and looting was the final nail in the coffin lid. They do not expect to reopen.
This can’t be an isolated phenomenon. A lot of jobs are going to go away permanently due to the riots.
I guess I don’t expect balanced reporting on this. It’s just disappointing.

I love State St. Madison is or was an awesome town

I had posted on PP the video (ie same one) that Zerohedge used in your reference
This is a former minister of health, and a doctor - I don’t question his integrity.
My point - he never says WHEN he heard this quote from Richard Horton. It could have been several years ago, or someone told him about the “conversation”. Perhaps now it is official - I do not know.
My unease comes from a post published here, gets read, and used again to reinforce our premises - if so we start acting like the guys (Big Pharma) who we want to “finger” - not good on our part.
Just a thought that crossed my mind - as long as it is Douste-Blazy who is referenced then we are not inferencing anything on our own.
It does not change what we all agree on - that Lancet should never have given this study credibility by publishing it.
Taken from the same interview: https://www.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/video/hydrxychloroquine-l-ancien-ministre-de-la-sante-philippe-douste-blazy-explique-pourquoi-il-remet-en-cause-l-etude-de-the-lancet-1249617.html

I put declining deaths in quotes because if you look closely you’ll see that they are not really declining more recently, in fact it looks like they were declining but have leveled off and are just starting to go back up! This can be explained by the fact that we are now transitioning between most of the cases coming from more developed countries in Europe and the US, and are now getting into many cases coming from Latin America while the cases in the US and Europe wind down. We must bare in mind as Chris always says that the deaths will lag the cases, so a second peak of deaths will come within a month from Latin America, India and Africa, which may be much more horrific than those from the developed nations due to inferior health care systems in those southern nations. The virus hit the developed nations first since they are more connected with flights to China, but now it has also spread to less well connected nations but perhaps with a slower spread. You can see this in this nice FT graph.

Chris had some provocative ideas on how to handle the policing situation. Just wondering how you feel about that?