Winter is Coming

Behold the Fruits of attacking scientific certainty.

This interview was an incredible watch for me, and it made me think of the millions (billions??) that are terrified for their lives, thanks to fear tactics, yet that is what they end up throwing away. Everything that is vitally important to us we are separated from and terrified of.
I wonder how it might come across for others?
https://zachbushmd.com/video/the-highwire/

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I have found the more I learn about what is happening to Humanity in these horrid times, the more I witness the displayed intellectual capacities of my species, the more I see the obvious propaganda being vomited forth by the dumb driven cattle and those, who herd them, the more censorship I see, the more irrationality I hear being applauded as the epitome of Reason, the more my fear has grown.
In my case, understanding this Reality, does not result in less fear. It is just that I am very good at handling fear… However, I suck at handling my chronic fear of heights, which is only getting worse the older I get.
Oh, well.

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https://carriemadej.com/uncategorized/the-gene-code-experiment/

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The message conveyed at the ending of this interview moved me to tears. He is so bang on. It is such a treat to watch him speak so cogently, with understated passion, using visual imagery to trigger emotions that foment deeper understanding. That he can do so without any sensationalism or politicization is remarkable, and much appreciated. He is a true leader, one we can only hope will be emulated far and wide.
His website homepage says the following: “Curiosity is the most powerful force on Earth”. I wholeheartedly agree! Solutions to problems begin with curiosity. Let us hope that the Great Awakening includes a return to embracing this, and the other core values that help us to become our best evolutionary selves.

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That was great. You’re right Jan, the ending message was beautiful.

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This energy shortage isn’t the half of it. Because of ESG pressure, energy companies have severely cut back investments in fossil fuel future production because of fear of “stranded assets.” Add to this the anticipated peak production for all major commodities including oil and gas. The easy/cheap-to-find material has been found and produced already. Consider also whether this results in high prices, or simply an inability to pay the prices needed to finance these new discoveries. Consider also the impact on the “growth” mantra from the crowding out of investment in other areas to meet the energy investment needs. So possibly this shortage won’t end anytime soon, because of a combination of bad politics and bad economics.
To add to this, let me remind you of Chris’ article “Getting Real About Green Energy” October 4, 2019. He shows that it is physically impossible to replace the fossil fuel energy usage with an equivalent amount of renewable energy in the next 30 years. A quote from this article says:
" So the math here is simple: to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, the world would need to deploy 3 [brand new] nuclear plants worth of carbon-free energy every two days, starting tomorrow and continuing to 2050. At the same
time, a nuclear plant’s worth of fossil fuels would need to be decommissioned every day, starting tomorrow and continuing to 2050.
I’ve found that some people don’t like the use of a nuclear power plant as a measuring stick. So we can substitute wind energy as a measuring stick. Net-zero carbon dioxide by 2050 would require the deployment of ~1500 wind turbines (2.5 MW) over ~300 square miles, every day starting tomorrow and continuing to 2050."
In other words, massive overwhelming investment and urgency. Where will it come from? And how will the generally destructive policies of the US Government make it happen?
Other articles have made the calculation of the need for rare earth and other critical elements, and find that there is simply not enough production (or even known reserves) to meet anywhere close to the need, and many of the production processes are environmentally damaging.
The end conclusion: we won’t use as much energy in the future. The low energy countries near the equator will be less impacted, but migration of people from the low energy countries of the South to the high energy countries of the North will make it worse. The solution, if you believe Agenda 2030 and associated plans, is massive population reduction to achieve sustainability. Is “growth” dead? How can it die if the population continues to increase, without a reduction in living standards for all?
Sad, but that’s where the arithmetic leads us. Show me wrong.

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As usual, top notch reminder that the next 20 years will be nothing like the last 20 years. So this is what peak energy looks like. Unfortunately, energy shortages spell war.
All I can do is keep prepping away. Remember when we PP did that survey during Covid lockdowns last year? Well, I realized I was not utilizing my time properly and started an exercise program after that. I’m in my 9 or 10th month and going strong. Just ordered some long range walkie talkies and still researching Ham and CB radios.
Heading out to the shooting range tomorrow - as a novice and with two other grandmas.
Covid and the ensuing piss poor public policies are one thing, adding in the three E’s to this cluster mix just makes life that much more interesting.

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Net-zero carbon dioxide by 2050 would require the deployment of ~1500 wind turbines (2.5 MW) over ~300 square miles, every day starting tomorrow and continuing to 2050.
31 years * 365 days * 1500 turbines * $1.3 million per megawatt * 2.5 megawatts = $55 Trillion!
And the land area:
31 years * 365 days * 300 square miles = 3.4 million square miles! Area of the continental United States is 2.96 million square mile, perhaps 1/2 or more of which is unsuitable for wind turbines or already has them. This amounts to about 6% of the total land area of the earth including lots of places with weaker winds or that are inaccessible… And then there is a fairly good working hypotheses that if we build enough wind turbines, we will slow down the near surface winds enough to significantly reduce the available power.

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agreed, and since when have we not been facing the energy supply crunch? it’s just the obvious outcome of the Crash Course. So now some immediate triggers like say microchip supply are cascading through the economy and energy becomes constrained by the current situation. But really aren’t we all supposed to be getting ready for a lot less (net) energy (remember EROI) and carbon budgets and peak everything limits?

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show you that you’re right!
another source: William Rees at U British Columbia:
“We argue that the only viable response to overshoot is a managed contraction of the human enterprise until we arrive within the safely stable territory defined by ecological limits. This will entail many fewer people consuming far less energy and material resources than at present.”
They propose “one-Earth living”.
Also interviewed by Alex Smith at ecoshock.org
https://www.ecoshock.org/2021/09/is-green-energy-a-dangerous-myth.html?unapproved=120840&moderation-hash=e46f335615f43b0c71a8872591f7f8c6#comment-120840

One thing to come out of the fracking oil boom was the ability to drill horizontal holes. There are companies such as Eavor using that technology to drill down 3 kilometers to where the earths rocks are hot and then create a closed loop and create and endless supply of steaming hot water to drive a turbine on the surface. Non polluting and 24 hours of energy that can be done anywhere on the earth giving us and endless supply of energy. Bit oil companies are investing in it.

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More than 90% of biomass lives underground (bacteria). The last several years, millions of previously unknown subterranean bacteria have been found.
What could possibly go wrong? after all, we learned in this covid episode that everything highly linear and that humans are in full control because all their plans work projected…
edit: I will add some links. I started monitoring this four years ago, I have to search my notes.

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>>> But really aren’t we all supposed to be getting ready for a lot less (net) energy (remember EROI) and carbon budgets and peak everything limits?
 
They keep moving the goalposts.
Saudi Arabia has more oil now than 15 years ago ?!
Venezuela has 300 Billion Barrels - of what ?
 
Saudi Arabia - whose citizens attacked us on 9-11 - are our “Friend” ?
Venezuela - who did not attack us on 9-11 - are our “Enemy” ?
Maybe we should stop allowing the CIA to tell us who our Friends and Enemies are.

Power cuts in China (WSJ). And from the FT: “Power crunch looms in India as coal stocks reach crisis point. More than half the country’s power plants have less than three days of supplies remaining.” Is this now “a thing”? Was anyone predicting this a month ago? [from Marginal Revolution]

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Seems like a great place for those doctors and nurses who refused the shot to start up their own practices, hmm?

A+ for creativity!