Every commentator had their spin and all are correct and all are suspect. Grant made it very clear that everyone is just guessing at the future at best. Basically, that there is no true answer to what is coming. I fully agree with his opinion on this. We are now guessing. If I’m going to guess then I’m buying first what every human being must have in their portfolio. ENERGY, it just makes sense. Inflation-Deflation, Long term is Gold and Silver, short term is putting your nose to the grinding wheel and to try and profit in the short term by grabbing a few dollars from the TRILLIONS moving about the economy, because things can change over night as Charles spoke of.
Every day when I begin my research, which is not a planned research as I read everything and my day takes me where it does. Just work at everything, every day, until tired. I research everything so that I am not biased towards one way of thinking. Fact is, I have painfully put myself through the process of taking each side so that I remain humble to the fact that there are many different outcomes. I am never going to look beyond the 3 to 6 month time horizon. It is why I just don’t see PM as being my primary investment strategy. I own PM and it bores me now as I just don’t see where the “World Currency” issue is anyway near in sight. Fact is, when I look out I see everyone else defaulting before we do and then I look at our military, then I think we’ll still be at the head of the table when the shit really hits the fan. The dollar is still very strong, I see heavy Deflation and I don’t see any real Inflation just yet. My God, the world is just getting back to work, will still be in lock down mode for months, a couple of years maybe and Folks just want to pay their bills. I believe too that we will pay off debt now and wait for the time where we feel safe enough to shed our masks and start consuming again but, I never see the retail sector ever really recovering. People will still avoid crowds if they have a viable alternative. That Folks is Amazon. That Folks is work at home. That Folks is staying away from crowded anything. One thing that has permanently been altered is crowded places to comingle. I just don’t see where that will return for those 25 and older. Kids, the next generation may reinstall the crowded bars thing but we are now very scared of getting sick so hanging out is pretty much a thing of the past but in small places that are large enough to space ourselves plenty of room.
Our goals are all different but what is common is what we all agree on. Get RESILENT. That means: what is it that I need for my life to be a rewarding life that I participate in to bring my consumer goods to me that I have a hand in, literally. For me this will control expected inflation as my quality of life also includes my working to bring in a garden, to help bring in my proteins. To bring in a good percentage of my heat and other expenses that I pay my currency for. I can support this because bringing in my crop affords me my style of life and pays me a real return. Hell, fish from our Pond we dug and fruits from trees and shrubs are reliable, productive year in and year out and are now free as all expensing has been paid for as well as past labor. I am doing what I love, every day that has monetary value…to us. My Lady is on board also and my tools help me or rather us to duplicate ourselves as well as do the heavy lifting. It’s very exciting.
Short term there is blood in the streets. Surely Oil is the master commodity. Never before and never again will we be able to buy at such cheep prices. So it isn’t wrong to load up in oil. In fact it should now be owned by all portfolio’s. I know that oil demand will rise at least 10 to 15 million barrels a day as we open up the world economy, not all at once but over the short term for sure. I believe cars will for a long time be the transportation choice. And I know in quick order that oil will recover and burn up much of the reserves that are spilling around all the storage tanks in Oklahoma. Why? The Rigs are being taken off the fields and producers are not pumping. they are not producing, they are not completing (Ducs) and they are not looking for oil. What they are doing is trying to get the price of oil up where it doesn’t meet demand so that the reserves will get drawn down and then they will all manage oil to the point where they (the oil industry world wide) all are profitable and no one will take any action to the collusion that will be in place for the foreseeable future, Oil must get to the $50’s, at least to bring back all the jobs and to supply only enough to keep the balance of Supply and Demand. It is imperative that we have a viable oil industry and we must come to a stable price for oil. Is that $70 a barrel? I don’t really know, I think, probably, so that it doesn’t keep destroying everyone’s book. So, M&A, consolidation, bankruptcy’s…we just must get oil squared away so that we don’t have the spikes that are surely coming if we stop with the finding of oil. Spikes are inevitable and Demand-Supply will balance as no other transportation will be viable but cars. Prices will go up as we start to count the portion of Folks leaving the unemployment lines to work. Looking out 6 months, does anyone believe that oil will be less than $40? I don’t. I think $50 a barrel is achievable this year still. I’m guessing $40’s but we can overshoot and will, we always do.
What I care about is that my house gets finished without any more shut downs. I cannot go into the late Fall without a roof on because if and it’s a big if, the government shuts down then I live with a roof not finished to brave the cold weather of the North Country and all the rain, snow and sleet that comes with this. Michigan can have brutal winters and I would risk a complete rebuild. Not going to happen. It is a RISK I am unwilling to take so may wait until next Spring. It’s all a timing thing and I can’t even get permits until Michigan opens up its economy fully in the near future. Plus I’m financing the project and we haven’t even started this process because it’s shut down and back logged.
Now, when all the States roll their economy’s out again then oil will gather steam and quickly until some form of buoyancy is achieved, it is then I will take profits and play the game even more attentively than I do now.
All of this seems right by me and this Podcast for me gave credence to my plan as everyone spoke of things I’m concerned about and showed me that we probably have a lot more time to still plan than is appreciated. I just need one more year and everything I have planned for will be in place, productive, ready to rock and roll come what may. I believe many people get confused that things are imminent, and only bad things are about to happen. I believe all is good and will have to protect my privacy and not allow the spiritless to influence the harmony we have started in earnest years ago. I can’t concern myself with the ultra rich, I can try and make some cash so that everything is owned out right (I will have only the debt of the new construction and that can be paid for next year if I choose. Next year we get my wifes investments and pension and incomes that she has worked for so hard these last 35 years. So we’ll probably go for a payoff if it looks like we;ve exhausted our opportunies to make more cash in the stock market. I believe in oil, I believe in the Amazon’s, I believe in investing in the things that clearly are needed by everyone just to live a modest life so that will be my only focus. That and a 20 acre piece of wooded land directly across the road from me. That’s a lot of fireplace logs to heat the home with. Plus I can slice up many of the Oaks and Maples for some nice wood to sell area cabinet makers. Otherwise, I’ll just process what I need and that has an immediate pay out for decades to come. I’ll continue to help support my living standards by making food and providing protein so that I can stay home and order my stuff from Amazon. Truly, I just want the time to spend with my Lady in our better years enjoying doing what we do and that’s gardening and taking care of the things that create wealth that was created by harvesting renewable resources. That is what we will do and we will have our investments and use this cash to better the lives of those around us as well. Mainly my son’s. That will be what makes life worth living. Love this site…PEACE…PS: Charles, you didn’t get much ink in this Podcast but that’s ok. Your few words speak volume, certainly for me. I am loyal to you Charles as a Brother is to another Brother. You opened ever door for me because you are an excellent writer and you speak the language that truly motivates and makes things so much clearer for me. Hey, Man love Brother, LOL, what can I say?! Peace.
