Not sure if this was already posted here somewhere:
https://globalnews.ca/news/6624856/bc-covid-update-tuesday/
4 new cases 
I fear it is moving from the case, case, case to cluster - the prelude to exponential, as Chris described the pattern. Lord I hope not…
Drs and CDC are at odds too who’s fault it is for not testing enough or earlier. The cdc is insisting it has always been up to the drs - they said their patients didnt meet the criteria. Its sort of both at fault. First, it is always the drs responsibility. The criteria is more or less a guideline but testing was more or less not available. However, even though the criteria is a guide the cdc has more or less enforced it as rule based on drs testimony. But for a week or so, not more the CDC did add to its criteria that it includes people that are symptomatic and require hospitalization that have no known asssoication with travel or contact… if other causes have been ruled out. So the CDC is correct, but its only really for about a week or so. The clinicians are ultimately responsible and if it were , I and i could not get a test. I would make a clinical diagnosis if that were my assumption. Drs use differential diagnosis all the time - its part of the process and once all things are excluded , the diagnosis is made… right or wrong… period - and that is the drs responsibility… once ruling all exclusions out and being left with the only likely cause… the diagnosis is self evident. the test is only a secondary confirmation at that moment. hence confirmed cases vs cases and presumptive cases etc… which we are seeing now… we could have seen these presumtive cases a month ago if the drs looked for the right presentation and drew on information given by other countries.
That in a year we could be just numb to the fact that millions (or even just hundreds of thousands ) of people had died, like it was just something that happens.
World Population 7.8 billion. 70% of the world population gets infected. 3.4% mortality rate. 7,800,000,000 * 0.70 * 0.034 = 185,640,000 deaths. What am I doing wrong? This can’t be right.
First: Thank you Copper’s Hu-mom for your shopping suggestions. I thankfully purchased the vast majority of the necessary preparation items throughout the previous month, specially after the first confirmed case was recorded in Madison in early to mid February. I added thereafter as sales took place. But a visit to Woodmans would be warranted as I have likely overlooked something.
Second: With regards to the death rate, I honestly believe the dreaded number will fluctuate considerably across the geography of preparedness or lack thereof as exhibited by the local entities with agency over their respective communities’ affairs. As depicted in the historical documentary about the Spanish flu cited below, the manner of addressing the eventual outbreaks of the novel coronavirus by local authorities of the present day will either be praised or derided by future historians. In the documentary, the reactive actions of officials in Philadelphia and proactive measures taken in San Francisco were examined. I just hope that we do not witness in this country a desperate daughter crying out for help for her dying mother from the balcony of her presumably quarantined appartment as was the case recently in Wuhan.
https://youtu.be/UDY5COg2P2c
Nairobi, I appreciate your observations regarding Westerners’ advantaged access to resources, largely made possible (IMO) by the US dollar’s status as world reserve currency (for now). So when competition for very limited supplies ensues worldwide, “monied interests” are in a position to “hoard” or at least meet their needs, often at the expense of those in poorer countries without access and cash.
IMO, this true to some extent. However, I believe that “monied interests” regardless of country have and always will be in the best position to secure comfortable and lifesaving resources. But living in the US does not in itself confer privilege. There are many people in the US that already do not have access or cash to get the medical care, medicines, nutritious food, or other resources even when supplies are sufficient, let alone when there’s acute shortages and sustained demand.
You said, “It may be time to reactivate domestic laws against hoarding of supplies as distasteful as that may sound to some. Or to have international bodies begin to fashion some kind of agreements on distribution where global shortages now seem certain. I don’t know which of our international organizations is best suited for the role of ensuring there is equity between nations whether that is the UN, WHO, World Bank, Red Cross, IMF or any other but it needs to be given consideration since the market by itself is mostly a pricing mechanism and fundamentally only responds to one thing….Dollars and cents.”
Without going into a deep dive on this, I think market dynamics have been corrupted by Central Banks for decades. The ““markets”” no longer function as price discovery mechanisms, and supply and demand for many commodities are influenced by subsidies, price controls and other manipulations.
Though the concept of empowering a designated entity or partnership to ensure equitable (re)distribution of limited medical/health resources during a crisis may seem like a solution to the problem of inequitable access, I can see some problems with that approach. (Note that some would consider this a significant step towards “One World Government”.)
Among the entities you’ve listed above, there’s some evidence and concern that bias and/or corruption influences their membership composition, decision-making and allocation of resources. Despite their non-profit, pubic or NGO status and altruistic missions, the above entities have also been known to be motivated by “dollars and cents” and not necessarily in the public’s interest. So maybe your suggested approach would be an improvement over existing market dynamics, but ensuring capable oversight by an unbiased, trustworthy entity might be very, very difficult.
As far as hoarding laws, they may work for some but there are always the privileged that can still get more than their “fair share” of the allotted resource. For example, China has strict laws against hoarding. These laws sometimes harm its citizens’ abilities to secure basic necessities beyond state-approved levels, and increases and ensures citizens’ dependence upon the state for their needs.
Yet it is well known that higher-ups in the CCP and at various levels of government or corporations can be privileged to receive more or better quality than their state-designated allotments. This happens with countries and causes as well: some are more “equal” (i.e., favored, privileged) than others.
I really don’t have any satisfactory solutions to the serious problems you’ve identified. But I do have misgivings about whether the solutions you’ve suggested would effectively solve those problems, exacerbate existing problems and/or create a host of other problems.
Nairobi, the important issues you’ve raised also have implications for dealing with looming acute shortages in other life sustaining commodities, such as grains and water. Historically, such shortages and inequality have led to resource wars and regime change.
Our health officials don’t trust the WHO and implemented various measures well ahead of the WHO’s recommendations. I expect the proven remedies available NOW — chloroquine phosphate, intravenous Vit C — NOT to be deployed. The Holy Grail seems to be a for-profit vaccine.
Friends of ours visiting Sydney reported today that toilet paper has vanished from the supermarket shelves. They roamed widely but found none. One gouger advertised TP at $1,000 per roll on Gumtree (a local eBay clone). Hope he develops a strong need to use up his own TP, if you see what I mean. Meanwhile, in Canberra today we found ample TP on the supermarket shelves and no panics. Depends where you are. Even mailed a box of TP (in disguise) to our Sydney friends to tide them over. Hope it isn’t purloined en route!
Chris mentioned that the “thumbs-up” vote button was inadvertently disabled during a recent upgrade to the site and they were working on a fix. I noticed some up votes on this thread. (Yeah!) I vote, get the green “thanks!” comment, but my vote doesn’t register. (Oh crap!)
Is this happening to others, or just me?
I’m beginning to feel I’m really “special” or I pissed someone off royally.
Nordicjack
I appreciate your posts and hear your point on this but still think you are being unfair You are entitled to your opinion. Doctors are expected to follow CDC guidelines as most health departments (which license physicians) also follow them. There are instances where you can test for every virus and still not know if it is Corona or not (especially with overseas travelers). Placing people on quarantine inappropriately also hurts patients and their families. They were following standard of care, in some cases begged for testing capability and still cared for the sick who came in despite their concerns. Believe me the health care workers including doctors want to have a correct diagnosis in this situation. Right now in suburban New York we have a group of healthcare workers on quarantine and their families are at risk too. When things hit the fan people in retirement and people who have recovered will be called to take care of the rest of you if needed. Police and EMS will still respond to calls too. Many doctors, NP’s and PA’s would already be testing if they had the materials. It is obvious a decision was made to postpone by some higher authority, possibly because diagnosing means hospital closures and law suits. Still I can see why the malpractice providers are worried about this one, doctors are always seen as being in charge. Sadly they no longer are but still get the blame. This will get ugly but why go after the people who are trying to help out?
Hey km64, No worries! I’ve appreciated your posts, including your links to some great resources. And I agree: A pox on both houses!
Take care and keep posting. 
PS: I tried to give you a “thumbs-up” on several of your posts but the system isn’t working for me still. Soon, I hope…
I think all presenting patients should be treated based on their presenting symptoms and biochemical labs. Whether the flu, corona virus or new or rare infection, the treatment should be exactly the same for causative pneumonia, sepsis , shock , inflammation etc… As to how one interprets the level of infection, and what protective measures need to be taken. I am not sure one needs to cordon off the town , hospital , etc is a matter of discretion… Unless the govt knnows something about this we dont. I dont think it calls for this type of action. We certainly wouldnt do it for the flu. Now , dont get me wrong , I think this is a bigger problem than the flu, However, basic infection control is practiced in the hospital all the time. If you have 100 people an hour running into the hospital you need to change your actions from one coming in a week. The measures taken in china were taken after there was problem. I am not saying wait this long, but don’t over do it when we have fires kindled but not burning out of control. Do nothing to identify those ignitions and you will have raging fire, but you dont dump your entire water supply on a spark.
the WHO 3.4 (was 2 yesterday ) is the number of people out of 100 that are diagnosed with it that die. this can be confirmed by looking at the total cases and the total deaths. A couple of days ago it was 3000 dead 87000 cases or just over 3 % death rate ( by their bad math )
For cases that go critical in hospital the rate is 66%
However in other posts of mine I go through the math and get a death rate of 8.9%
The WHO number is worked out without accounting for the fact that the people who were diagnosed in the last week have not yet had the time to die, but will.
The WHO method gives an artificially low rate while numbers are in the growth phase and it will keep increasing as the growth curve flattens and will do so until there are no new cases.
Given how obvious this discrepancy is it might be deliberate in a miss guided attempt to avoid panic. But I have a good bovine fecal matter detector…
Regards Hamish
Dtrammel
World Population 7.8 billion.
70% of the world population gets infected.
3.4% mortality rate.
7,800,000,000 * 0.70 * 0.034 = 185,640,000 deaths.
What am I doing wrong? This can’t be right.
These worst case numbers are catastrophic. Even half the worst case is catastrophic. The effects on the economy, politics and society are almost unimaginable if this comes to pass. As I see it we need luck, divine intervention or an early and effective vaccine.
In many threads and many places and other websites (e.g. Automatic Earth) it is being pointed out with increasing frequency that (allegedly) safe, effective and inexpensive treatments are readily available: chloroquine phosphate and intravenous Vitamin C.
I fully expect these to be sidelined, denigrated, ignored. Yes, it’s hard being a cynic.
You put in a rate of infection of 70%, we have two case studies in the rates on infection, the Korean Church which had an infection rate of 81% (when adding the two groups symptomatic and asymptomatic) and we had the Diamond (distaster) princess which had an infection rate of 18.9%, the difference being one where no measures were taken to control the virus and the other where efforts were taken. This makes your upper estimate much worse, and your lower estimate much better.
I get my cfr from https://wuflu.live which Chris linked to a few days back, and it says now the cfr is 3.4 but that is a lagging indicator that assumes that China has completely transparent numbers. It will go higher as the death rate catches up in South Korea, Iran and Italy.
I think your number will work out in reality to be much lower but still so high as to be shocking beyond the belief of anyone with compassion.
Thanks Sparky, lets just hope that the Chinese get back on line quickly since their production is critical to not only our well being but also to India’s ability to produce and supply medications. Both those countries have far more importance to our way of life than many of us knew a few short weeks ago.
I will admit I was stunned to hear that the vast majority of all our antibiotics and for that matter medications of all kind are produced in such a few foreign locations. Upon confronting the implications of that it led me to realize what a disaster it is for poorer nations who will be entirely unable to procure essential goods when wealthy countries are dealing with their own emergencies.
What is happening right now is equivalent to a world war in many respects as supply lines are broken across the globe, airlines grounded, shipping frozen, borders closed, cities under lock down and mayhem in hospitals as emergencies break out in hot spots across the world.
It is unbelievable too and I think most people are in a state of shock and disbelief. What do you mean we can’t fly away on holidays? Are you kidding there are no more of XYZ supplies in the shops or that nobody can safely travel to conventions, weddings, funerals, football matches or business meetings?
The whole thing is surreal. In the background you, like me, must have a sense of how deeply this is going to affect every aspect of our lives if the economy does not come back online in full quickly. Besides the many deaths that are being reported the wheels of the economy are at risk of decoupling from the wagon altogether. Unemployment could soar, banks will fail, debtors will default and business will close.
Are we actually on the brink of a worldwide depression unfolding?
And naturally I cannot help but think of friends overseas who were unable to meet their own needs even during times of a healthy economy. There is no question Africa is poor and shortages are always a threat but these kinds of shortages cast a great cloud over everything there. I have no idea who will advocate for them if they don’t speak up for themselves but personally I will not buy anything I don’t need given that we know very serious shortages are developing and may become acute across the globe as this illness gains ground.
I suppose I just wrote that earlier post to remind people that as we (they) are busy snapping up the last vials and bottles of medications at a time when our two major suppliers (China and India) are offline that we keep in the back of our minds what we actually need and not needlessly purchase and store up goods that others may require urgently. Serious shortages mean that there will be equally serious price hikes coming too.
We will be OK but others will really suffer. I was in East Africa during the wheat price spike of 2008 and I can tell you it was no joke. People who were normally struggling on a poor diet were in crisis as the price of grains skyrocketed. It’s not an experience any of us would tolerate well but Africans seemed to mostly take it in stride and people I knew and met had dropped back to a single meagre meal a day.
How much worse will it be when they can’t get medical help either because even basic supplies run out? Fortunately there has been some money freed up by the World Bank and it may go to debt forgiveness and the WHO apparently has some billions specifically earmarked for the poorest countries.
We all need to take a deep breathe and calm down though. I don’t like what I am reading about empty store shelves and panic buying of critical goods. It hurts everyone and its really not necessary. It’s not like most of us can avoid this Corona anyway. It will circle the globe until it runs out of hosts and burns itself out even if that takes a few seasons. Its time we just adjusted to that reality and went back to trying to lead our lives as normally as possible without the panic that is suddenly starting in some places.
dtrammel…Yes, your math is correct. World population in 1920 was about 2 billion, roughly one fourth of today’s population. Somewhere between 20 and 50 million people died of the Spanish flu back then. Multiply those numbers by 4 and you get 80 to 200 million deaths today… so your calculation is within the range. Sobering to say the very least. Prepare and pray.
Will do, Copper’s Hu-mom. I listened to the local news last night to catch their story on the people being tested in CNY, and there’s supposed to be a press conference on it today. Apparently a couple of people are being monitored in Buffalo as well.
In Canada we have a thing called the War Measures Act that could be brought back into law during a national state of emergency brought about by a pandemic and acute shortages. The last time it was invoked was during Pierre Elliot Trudeau’s tenure at the time of the 1970’s October Crisis. The act gives the government sweeping powers that might normally not be considered legal during times of peace and that could include rationing if necessary. I don’t know what the American equivalent is but we can probably anticipate States of Emergency being declared in some jurisdictions depending on how bad things get. Everything is on the table now isn’t it? If China is our blueprint I think we should expect the unexpected.
My husband ex husband and two friends all went on chloroquine Sunday. I took this drug in 1983 for five months when living in rual Kenya. I understand the drug is 70 years old. Im 60 and normally take aspirin only so for me to go on pills, is a big deal. I have worked internationally and alot of people I know have taken chloroquine for long periods. Everyone needs to make sure that they can take any drug of course re allergies or contraindications.
I am a pharmacist and I have decided to take Monolaurin 600 mg twos capsules twice a day for prevention and if I start feeling sick I will increase it to 3 capsules three times a day. If I feel ill I will also add vitamin d 1.25 (50,000) . I am a pharmacist in South Carolina living in the port city of Charleston. We have no confirmed cases yet but I also don’t think we have tested anyone. My plan is to not get it but I feel like it is important for me to continue going to work, although I am terrified of catching it.