@daniloraf Thank you for the detailed response and for providing the citations. What you say makes a lot of sense, so Iâve been rethinking the analysis and trying to gain a better understanding of the details.
This is how I calculated Vavg
Vavg = d / (d/Vs - B)
where
d = distance, 459.6 feet
Vs = speed of sounds, 1152.2 fps
B = crack boom difference, 0.221 seconds
Vavg = 459.6 / (459.6/1152.2 - 0.221) = 2584 fps
For the distance you used in your spreadsheet (465 feet), Vavg = 2547 fps
So, getting the correct distance is important. In this case, itâs a difference of 37 fps.
In the most current version of my TDOA model, I am using these locations:
You have made an excellent point. Temperature and altitude both affect air density and have a significant impact on velocity. From what I can tell on https://shooterscalculator.com, it looks like manufacturers use this standard for the ballistic measurements they publish:
International Standard Atmosphere
Altitude: Sea Level (0 ft)
Barometric Pressure: 29.92 Hg
Temperature: 59° F
Relative Humidity: 50%
Speed of Sound: 1116 fps
Taking Remington Premier Match 77gr as an example, the standard velocity is 2446 at 140 yards, but using the Butler conditions of 93 F and 1335 ft altitude increases the velocity to 2483 fps. Seeing how significant this is, I will need to redo the velocity calculations I did for your ammo table and reassess my top pick.
I find it implausible Crooks went on the roof with so little ammunition. Whether he fired all 8 or only 3 or 5, all still debatable with good evidence he fired either 8 or 5 (probably not just 3), my educated guess is that he had at least 1 full 30 round magazine.
As to why his shooting stopped, Iâd theorize that there was no longer a target and/or he was taking stock of the situation hoping Trump would stand up or be moved and heâd have another opportunity. Or he was finished and beginning his exfiltration. Perhaps alternately he had a weapon malfunction (double feed, failure to load, failure to eject, etc.) that paused/stopped his shooting.
So, a plausible order of events:
Crooks shoots 5, stops to re-assess his target.
A moment later, shot 9 comes in (snaps past him, maybe hits his stock).
Crooks re-assesses his exfiltration and turns to examine either the crowd, possibly where the shot came from, possibly assessing escape routes or threats (he knows cops are to the East and SE so that route is blocked).
While moving, adjusting, maybe looking South again to assess, etc. shot 10 comes in and ends him.
Sorry, I phrased the sentence poorly before. I meant to say "And yet, the bullet (and itâs avg V) that was tested with the same characteristics as Crooksâs rifle was not a match against (not within) the calculated range of candidates.
By the way, I went to Hornadyâs website to look up info on atmospheric conditions during the tests (I remember one manufacturer had this info when I compiled that ammo data, but canât remember which one), and I just found more 5.56/.223 cartridges on Hornayâs website. Turns out I was looking at hornadyle.com, and there are different ones on hornady.com. There are 37 in total on hornady.com⊠Iâm sure some will be the same from the first Hornady batch already on the spreadsheet, but⊠dammit. Iâll try to check it later tonight. Of these 37, 12 are sold in boxes of 50. These 12 are all 55 grains ammo. Of these 12, two are 5.56 and ten are .223 . These could be similar in Velocity as your previous choice of ammo.
I have not specifically searched it out but â50â suggests a bulk box, and âbulk boxesâ are generally the cheapest, which 55gr tend to be. Not universally but this comports with my general experiences.
To just stop all this speculation on the ammo used,
just ring up the store and ask them what brand & size packs of 50 round ammo you sell.
When you got that info, ask them which one Crooks could have likely bought,
⊠strait into home base.
All you do is watch any video and concentrate on window 3 of building 6 and you would be surpised that everything matches up!
Here is just one example taking Stewarts video, everybody knows the sequence from the time zone T-15 to T+15, but has anybody looked prior and after that? Probably not as much as the shooting part, because there is not much to see except a hourse riding by . But letâs take a deeper look and concentrate on window 3 prior and after the shooting and you will be surprised what you can see.
Throughout the whole video, you should be seeing a boring empty window.
However in Stewarts video Window 3 changes by the second!
Take for example T-1Min34 sec:
You can allready see that the window is open a crack and the helper is seen with is head lamp on the lowest dim level. Is this a fatal mistake he made, thinking that his head lamp was off, but in reality it is at the lowest dim level? Luckely for us, because throughout the whole video, you see every mouvement from the helper with a perfect back light contrast, something you would never have seen if his head lamp would have been off.
Here is T-48 sec
Whatâs that rope or tape doing there?
And T+2Min 56sec
The last time you see window 3 in this video, you can clearly see the two separate windows (upper window and lower window) which is in accordance with our findings how they shot through the open upper window.
Okay. Well, if you do a version 5 of your spreadsheet I will be happy to have another look. In the meantime, I re-ran my average velocity calculation after incorporating the velocity boost resulting from 93 F and 1335 ft elevation compared to the âstandard atmosphereâ values, and here is what I found:
So, the top ammo pick that you mentioned a few days ago is right there in the middle of the pack, and pretty close to the 2585 fps average that I was expecting to see. However, the Nosler 55gr round is still also within range.
One issue with the TAP Precision is that Hornady classifies it as a Law Enforcement round. (TAP = Tactical Application Police.) So, I donât know whether you can typically find that on the shelf at a gun store. I see that âhornadyle.comâ is their law enforcement oriented website, and âhornady.comâ is their normal consumer website. So, I think itâs probably a useful endeavor to incorporate the 37 cartridges you identified on horandy.com
I sent them an email weeks ago, no reply. News reports say the store will not comment on it (respect for the Comperatore family). Besides, we donât actually know that the ammo fired on j13 was actually the same one he bought earlier that day.
Still on this kick huh?! No, you didnât âcatch the first shot on videoâ because it was off by the audio sound report by at least 4 seconds, the shot didnât come from Window 3, which was never opened/removed/broken, it probably couldnât clear the fences (AGR6 was sitting in a depression, the flash of light is mid-way up the window about 6â, the fences are 6â but on higher ground), and definitely couldnât clear the 9â + tall bleachers, nor the standing dense crowd, from YOUR OWN CAD drawing.
Educated guess, a reflection just like Window 2. In fact Iâve asked you now 4 or 5 times to explain/differentiate between the nearly identical reflections in windows 2 and 3 but you have not done so to my knowledge. These windows offer almost the identical reflections at various angles/times. This essentially proves that the âropeâ or other reflections in Window 3 prove it was closed and nothing was unusual about these reflections since they are observed in at least 1 or more other windows (window 1 and 4 also had reflections).
Your heavily clever moving gifs have obvious problems. This one is from a stationary Stewart filming the officer walking by. The other videos stills into gifs are from a frantic Stewart racing around rapidly swinging his camera in different directions, angles, crouching down, standing up, etc. making the window 3 image deceptively appear to have changes and movements. This is truly elementary level analysis that should be obvious to anyone with a HS diploma.
Let me illustrate from the 2 images you provided.
This is a view of Window 3, from the hard SE angle.
This is a view of Window 3, from the hard SW angle. Pointed directly at and reflecting the red barn as well.
If you throw these and a few other radical angles into a moving gif, of course it will appear (dishonestly) that there is movement and activity in the window when in reality itâs just altering the angles of the video. A child can see this, why canât you?
Exactly right. No window 3 was NOT opened. The reflection in window 3 in his image looks almost identical to window 2 to the east. I have no idea why heâs on and on about window 3, it clearly was never opened, never removed, alleged white LED flashes were not shots, the sounds did not line up with any audio, the mid-height of the window is 6â and maybe couldnât clear the near fence, probably couldnât clear the far fence (since AGR6 sits in a depression) but definitely couldnât clear the bleachers well over 6â tall, closer to 9+ with all the standing densely crowded people.
Done. Those 37 cartridges were not unique. They were SKUs, so for instance the same round appears twice, because one SKU was for a 20round box and another was for a 150 rounds box of the same ammo. I just added all 37 on ammo-data-v5. Do note that on Hornady.com there were no specific rifles mentioned for the tests, just the barrel length, and all these new cartridges were done with 20" or 24" barrels, which adds to bullet V. To simulate for 16" a round originally tested with a 20" barrel, Iâve been subtracting 5% of the avg V. (btw, found this interesting Hornady page with BC formulas).
I marked 2 of these new cartridges as my top candidates. Both 75grains and their Vâs differ by a couple of fps, practically the same V. One has T2 in its name, as does that Hornady LE round.
This is awesome. What about the barrel length issue? This video might shed some light on the issue. Itâs where I got that value of 5% less V going from a 20" to a 16".
Very enticing news that both cartridges survived the adjusment.
The upper window is pulled back for 4 seconds only, just enough time for the 2nd shooter to takes his 3 shots. Then the upper window is put back in place giving you the picture you see with two glasses superposed on top of each other. You can go look at other screen shots after the shooting in this video, you will always see a slight line from the superposed windows between upper and lower. Take for example T+ 1Min 35 seconds:
For those who still donât quite understand about these two upper and lower windows superposed, here is a very simple explaination:
What is your opinion on the animated gif. This time it is a nice and clear animation. I donât think we can say that it is due to âcompression artifactsâ this time. On the forum page the animation seems to be a bit small, but I recommend everybody who has an objective mind and is willing to seek for the truth, to right click on the animated gif (small movie where the cop is walking, and you can see window 3 opening in the last frames) and download it to your computer locally. There you can really zoom in and get a good look of the action comming from window 3.
And just one more remark:
Making custom glass windows was probably not that difficult of a task, ARJ being a glass research companyâŠ
If there is no there there and somebody claims window 3 to be a normaly shut window through out the entire video, then sorry I donât think you are objective about this topic.
Sorry, you are not up to date. Please read my posts carefully. At the end I indicated that Version 6 of our joint project has been released. There everything is 100% documented how the newest numbers that have been entered lead to window 3 when back tracing the first shot.
Your arrow points to the mid-line in Window 3. I see that clearly - especially when enlarged - as a reflection of the border between the light green grass below and the dark green tree foliage. And I see the same thing in Window 2 (although here the reflection of tree foliage is limited by the partially drawn blind). If the mid-line in Window 3 represents to you the overlapping of two âsuperposed windows,â then shouldnât the mid-line visible in Window 2 represent the same thing? So do you believe that more than one window was prepared (and then repaired) in this special way?
His theory of Window 3 as the shots is impossible. Itâs predicated on âodd reflectionsâ which are fully explainable, consistent with adjacent Window 2, and fully prove the window is reflecting so cannot have been removed. Itâs a compilation of gifs, from different lateral and vertical angles. And a flash of white light at least 4 seconds off from the gunshot audio. Oh, and itâs at least 3 feet below the height needed to clear the bleachers and spectators.
Shots cannot have come from Window 3 because:
No open, removed, or broken window at any relevant time. This window is on video near continuously, minus perhaps a few seconds, the entire time. Zero chance someone opened or removed the window without being observed and filmed. There were cops and witnesses standing in view, many recording. No window 3 was removed or opened.
The sound is off by at least 4 seconds.
Far too low. Probably cannot clear the fences, definitely cannot clear the 9+ feet tall bleachers.
For these and other reasons Window 3 is a waste of time. Iâve explained this to him no fewer than 10 times but he persists on this nonsense red herring dead end.
But now that you pointed out to window 2, it would make sense to have plan B. So, if window 3 is not clear for some reason (maybe a person in the shooting line), they switch to window 2. Looking at this screen shot it seems to be the case.
Wow MacD, thanks for the lead. And you know what the most interesting part about this finding is? Window 2 would maybe line up with the controversial notches we found in the fence.
Itâs great that EVERYONE is working together on this and we are ALL on the same Team !
The fact that the âpropsed bullet trajectoriesâ do NOT originate from âthe dead person on the roofâ is a fantastic piece of investigative skill. Which DOES match audio/echo analysis for shots 1-2-3 and then 4-5-6-7-8
The Ballistics Report will >always< match the âsingle shooterâ theory.
However, we DO need to be aware that some folks will arrive and deliberately plant bad data or mislead here. Because that is what they are paid to do.
The fact that we have two defined points in space (Trumps ear and the hight of the bleachers) is locked in space (not to get confused with the TV series âLost in spaceâ danger, danger! )
I agree with your comments about these windows. These are two published shots taken from a different room, however,they clearly show windows in situ, that can be removed.
Infact that subject was also discussed at some length because it was a clear and obvious issue around the AGR Buildings. Chris actually raised this himself when these photographs were first released because of the âopen windowâ issues.
. But letâs take a deeper look and concentrate on window 3 prior and after the shooting and you will be surprised what you can see.
danger, danger! 
)