Audio Analysis Is Most Consistent Two Shooters At Trump Rally

Brian60221 ~ obviously I won’t be receiving my “Junior G Man” badge. You were correct – at the tail end of the Grassley video the camo-guy recounted “8 shell casings” on the roof, not “5”. My contention now of 2 Shooters is in doubt . . . maybe. My original belief was Shooter #1 fires the 1st 3 shots, followed by Shooter #2 (Crooks) firing 5 shots, Shot #9 is questionable & of “Unknown Origin”, & lastly, the “Fatal Shot” by the Sniper taking out Crooks. This was fully supported by Chris’ audio analysis & sound distinction between the 3 & 5 shots.

But, with the Grassley bodycam video confirming “8 shell casings” on the roof, that throws a monkeywrench into the audio analysis. We have to assume these shell casings were discharged from the weapon Crooks fired. Forensics will no doubt validate that premise. In addition, the sniper who took out Crooks had him in his sights for a good 3 minutes. He would be “witness” to the discharge of those 8 shots. As to why he allowed as many is questionable, but it all happened in mere seconds.

Although . . . listening to the audio file that Chris posted, the distinctive difference between Shots 1 - 3 & 4 - 8 is most compelling. And all the posters tend to agree. It’s been validated that Crooks purchased the shells that morning. This seems to be rather conflicting. Unless . . .

This entire scheme is an elaborately orchestrated assassination attempt. Crooks undoubtedly had Instruction & Assistance. The question becomes “how much” was from the “inside”? Either the entire group of Secret Service down to the Local Law Enforcement are nothing but a bunch of ‘Keystone Kops’, or . . . they were intentionally manipulated & distracted from their jobs & posts. What we are ‘seeing’ vs what we are ‘hearing’ may very well be ‘slight-of-hand’.

Facts or Fantasy or Farfetched . . . ?

Crooks had a ‘range finder’, + used a drone to scout the area previously. Distraction or actual useful data?
Crooks (or someone else) brought a rifle on to the grounds – he had to have ‘help’ or he was damn lucky.
Crooks had to get on top of the roof undetected – no one knows how. More ‘help’, more ‘guidance’?
Crooks fired 8 shots, but were they all from the rooftop? Crooks had gone to a ‘target range’ to practice. Suppose he picked up 3 empty shell casings (as ‘instructed’) & brought those to the rooftop, then dropped them near where he lay.
Suppose the “Plan” was for him to let another Shooter (#1) fire the 1st 3 rounds, then Crooks, on cue, fire the next 5. That allowed just enough time for Shooter #1 to gather his shell casings, then vacate the premises. If he was one of the “Security” then nobody suspects him in the area – especially if there’s another “team member”.
Suppose Shooter #1 entered the lower ground floor in the building behind Crooks where the ground floor sniper had vacated his post leaving it unmanned, as well as the unmanned 2nd sniper post on the 2nd floor leaving Crooks unchecked. The trajectory of the bullets from ground level raised enough to clip DjT, then go higher into the stands hitting the guy on the top row. This would then also validate the audio differentiation.
There have been confirmed 3 undercover SS agents dressed just like Crooks – khaki shorts & t-shirts, thus, the sniper who took out Crooks was in doubt if he was taking out an assassin or an SS agent. That would account for the delay . . . unless the sniper was part of the “team”.
Suppose Crooks was assured of an easy “escape plan”, being protected by his “team”, but unknowing there was no escape plan. Thus, the “Patsy” sacrifice & NO evidence.
Suppose the “detonator” & explosive devices were merely decoys for distraction & to create the illusion that Crooks was a genius mastermind with more criminal intent.
Suppose the FBI &/or Secret Service scrubbed all devices belonging to Crooks – his cellphone, computer, etc. No traces, nothing to track, no paper trails.

Farfetched? Something to think about . . . RnB

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I put an analysis online (link below) of different, but very similar, lines of sight coming from the buildings from which Crooks allegedly fired his rounds. The first lines of sight align very well with the lines of sight from the higher building behind him.

I made a KML-file available with which you can explore the various positions yourself.

The various points of interest have been documented at coordinate level, including (shooting) distances and heights in meters, yards and feet.

The points of interested included are: the position where the man was shot dead, Trump’s ear and the other known victims who got injured or killed, etc.

All constructive feedback is welcome!

If someone can provide me with the speed of sound of the day of Trump’s rally, I can easily include timings of the sonic booms at various distances.

Thanks for your feedback!

Source Material

feel free to download the current KML snapshot from https://www.howdoiknowthisinfo.com/butler/snapshots/snapshot_current.zip

hello wwrr55, this is so true, but I hope that I can give you a head start with my previous post…

the distances and heights are shown in meters, centimeters, yards and feet…

enjoy!

My considerations on the echoes of source 4.
First if the World was perfect the location of the echo wall would be in the ellipse where the source and the receiver are the locus of that ellipse. Because the ellipse has the propriety of been the geometric place were the sum of the distances to the locus are constant. Here is an explanation of that.
In the 1 to 3 shots the echo is around 0.08s. In the 5 to 8 is 0.17s
I manage to estimate source 4 position in both times.

Here is the ellipse for shots 1 to 3.

Here is the ellipse for shots 4 to 8.

These are not perfect conditions here because there is no line of sight from the source to the receiver or no line of sight from the source and the receiver to echo wall.Therefore, the probable location is in within the ellipse.

For me I’m inclined to believe that is the represented blue walls in the images.

Here’s the calculation using your ballistic calculator …

Assuming 77gr OTM rounds which are designed for distance and accuracy competition shooting:

CHART LINK
image

The approximate average velocity is then
(2789 + 2500)/2 = 2644 fps

Based on the three DIFFERENT snick-report times, this yields:

• 1st shot .2205 x (1/1152 - 1/2644) = 450 ft
• 2nd shot .215 = 439 ft
• 3rd shot .209 = 427 ft

Only that 1st shot seems to match the distance of 454 ft reasonably well. The snick-report times on the 2nd and third shots still imply closer distances for the shooter.

CONCLUSION:

We need to know WHAT THOSE BULLETS WERE!

If they were anything LESS than 77 gr, I think it’s HIGHLY likely there was a 2nd shooter.

If they were 77 gr, then this analysis is just BARELY compatible with a single shooter at least for the 1st shot.

But we still have the obvious problem that Crooks’ shoulder did NOT move on the 1st shot!

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There are three audio channels within the patrol car video 1382_202407131806_Unit5-0.mp4, and this the car of the famous roof-climbing Butler city police officer, who parked his vehicle at the eastern side of AGR building 6 with a view to its main door. Interestingly, these three audio channels appear to record microphones mounted at front, middle and rear of the car, with the outermost two channel recording ambient noise.

Within the first coming group of three shots, the signal farrives first on channel one, then on channel two and then on channel three. The delay between channel 1 and channel 3 is around 10 ms. I haven’t yet checked the second group of shots, but I expect them to show the same pattern …

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I wonder if FBI had gone thru all the videos and kept only the ones where crooks is not visible during the shootout and erased the rest.

Ofcourse the easier narrative is crooks was the lone shooter and SS and LEOs just made it possible by following some orders

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The clocks must not be synchronised, but tick at almost the same rate, at least that is how I understand “j&L”. The point is that the all selected (cell-phone) clocks should have an acceptable minimum rate deviation from each other.

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This does make sense with these three microphones spread over around 10 ft with the way the car is aligned to the general direction of the shots. When trying to triangulate the audio source, each millisecond is about 1ft of distance.

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Yeah, I’d have wondered if this didn’t made sense, and if this kind of sense would not point straight to AGR building 6. And by putting it together with the miraculously missing sound from the bodycam BWC2-122110 belonging to that roof-climbing Butler city police officer and driver of this very patrol car, my coincidence detector gets triggered again.

The bodycam BWC2-122110 is in file “1382_202407131800_BWC2122110-0RATF.mp4”

Edit: And I do wonder why I hear nothing from Trumps heavily amplified voice on the exterior streams. (Reply was addressing Kwaka/#344 above)

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@cmartenson ,

I took my 16" barrel, mid grade commercial AR to the range today and ran several different ammo types across the Chronograph. My chrono is spot on below 1100 fps, when compared to radar units. I have no reason to doubt it’s data.

Ran 10 unknown rounds through the barrel to warm it up, including 5 on rapid fire. Don’t have a shot timer, so didn’t have any way of identifying how fast I actually cycled the trigger.

String one 10 rounds PMC X-Tac 556 XP193 55g
velocity 3058-3003
average 3035
Std Dev 18

String two 10 rounds American Eagle 223 Rem 55g
velocity 2943 - 2879
average 2914
Std Dev 23

String three 10 rounds Freedom Munitions 223 Rem 55g factory reman (reload). Another point on this, I only recorded 8 data points, I wasn’t allowing enough time for chrono to reset.
velocity 2989-2699
average 2904
std dev 47

String 4 10 rounds of my own plinking reloads 55g
Velocity 2886-2699
average 2763
std dev 60 (!!!)

I present this data to the team for potential use in the location calculations. Granted, it’s a very limited subset, but the results are similar to what I’ve seen before. I will also add that generally in a gun store, 223 is front and center, 556 is something you often have to look for.

Shot 15’ from chrono to avoid muzzle blast data errors.

Cases generally dropped between 10-15’ away on a 30-45 degree angle rearward. I was standing while shooting.

Side note, it’s been a long time since I’ve run my own reload across the chrono. Looks like I need to do some investigating :frowning:

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Good work. As an experienced civilian and military rifleman having owned and used these platforms for 2+ decades, in posts many days ago, I suggested the likely variation range would be between 2900 to 3100 fps with the most common ammo in a 16 to 18 inch barrel AR15. I think your tests have verified my thoughts. Thank you for the testing.

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Is there a permanent link somewhere on this website to this? I looked for it for a long time thru threads. Seems it should be linked or tabbed somewhere.
@cmartenson

Quick note on snick-boom times of 123 vs 45678 from podium mic as being diagnostic of a second shooter.
A 1 or 2 percent difference in time would mean a 1 or 2 percent difference in distance only if the muzzle velocities were identical.
If there was also a few percent difference in muzzle velocities, but in our calculations we assume equal velocities then we can be off by a lot, in either direction depending on which bullets were slower and which were faster.
I think TDOA analysis of the reports are likely to be more accurate regarding location assuming we have good enough data - particularly non moving microphones of known location.

But if the snick-boom times of 123 vs 45678 are significantly different on the podium mic recording - this is pretty strong evidence of a second shooter [edit - or maybe not, see below] : you just can’t say whether the second shooter was nearer or farther without knowing relative muzzle velocities.

The snick-boom time is also affected by accuracy of the shot. If the shot misses the microphone by an extra 1.15 foot, this will subtract about 1 msec from the snick-boom time (assuming speed of sound of 1150 feet per second).

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Excellent point. So, theoretically:

Professional 280 meters away uses 5.56 traveling 3300 fps. Shots are closer proximity to Trump’s mic.

Crooks 140 meters away uses .223 traveling 2800 fps. Shots are 10 meters farther from Trumps mic.

The boom-snick report for these will be different, but how?

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It gets worse. For the shot that hit Corey, the time for the sound of the report to reach the mic is unchanged. But the time for the snick to reach the mic instead of distance of shooter to mic divided by bullet speed, it is distance of shooter to Corey divided by bullet speed plus distance from Corey to mic divided by speed of sound. That could make a significantly shorter snick-boom time.

Hi everyone, this is pseudo stereo. Left channel is Trump’s mic, right channel is western footage.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1WTIh6bS5n4rRuG1pYIgFG1vaMyyZ1657?usp=sharing_eip&ts=66bbca56

(Note: this is all hypothetical, not real data)
That’s a good question, quite a big difference:
I’m going to just use feet

Crooks Professional
feet 459 919
Speed Round 2800 3300
Speed Sound 1150 1150
Snick-boom 0.235 0.520

But suppose the difference in distance is not so great, say a 2nd floor window from the building just behind Crooks. Add an extra 53 feet. And let’s reverse your speeds, so the Professional’s muzzle velocity is actually slower than Crooks’ gun. And ignore the “missed the microphone by” factor. You can engineer almost identical snick-boom times.

Crooks Professional
feet 459 512
Speed Round 3300 2800
Speed Sound 1150 1150
Snick-boom 0.260 0.262

Or suppose one shooter, second shot hits Corey.
I’m not sure how far Corey was to the microphone; I’m guessing 30 feet.

Missed Hit Corey
feet 459 459
Speed Round 2800 2800
Speed Sound 1150 1150
Corey to mic dist 30 30
Shooter to Corey 429 429
Round to Corey 0.153
Sound Corey to mic 0.026
Gun fire to snick 0.164 0.179
Sound gun to mic 0.399 0.399
Snick-boom 0.235 0.220

Bottom line; if we look at the shot that struck Corey, and if that shot still delivered a sonic boom to the mic (it may not have), this would lead to a shorter snick-boom time on the order of one millisecond for each 2 feet Corey was in distance to the microphone.

Do we have a group consensus on snick-boom times for each of the shots? And do we know which one hit Corey?

I looked up the temperature in Butler for that day and found “93 deg F”. Then I used an altitude of 408m and https://e6bx.com/speed-of-sound/ to compute the speed of sound as 351.18 m/s

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You might want to check out this post. It’s the most detailed post on the subject I’ve run across.

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