I plotted all the shot positions that have been proposed and found only Crooks position (and possible 2nd shooter in the building/ceiling below) aligned with the ear and puff of smoke at the top right rear bleacher.
I then looked at the alignment of two trajectories (from Crooks and from a second shooter ceiling position below Crooks) and compared them the famous photo of the bullet trail next to his head.
And found a perfect match. I see only two possible trajectories that work. Crooks and an above the ceiling position shooting out of a vent hole. The vents can be seen in photos.
It might be like you say. Yet stream 1 and 3 are always 10 ms apart, with stream 2 in between. There are numerous examples, beginning with undercarriage noise and further on with the firstly only intended door opening and various clicking sounds as well.
Overall, I now see that delay as a systematic error within the video/audio documentation system of that patrol car. Please see also my post here.
Your line of fire paralleling a vapor trace of the second projectile may do so only apparently, depending on how you correct for the perspective distortion. You may want to follow the discussion of my own approach here
In this post also concluded the same think from James Copenhaver footage.
If the line of sight from James Copenhaver footage is almost aligned with Trump ear and the Vent that means that a fire from the vent would pass at the height of the camera eyepiece. Therefore, if the bullet hit the rail it has come from an upper position.
I also explained that here to @roger-knight, where I did a model correcting Google Earth height using James Copenhaver footage.
In his opinion I cannot use the footage for the model, but I think that it still proves it did not come from the vent, but from an upper position.
@cohler No, the multi-mic approach is very useful. While it does not answer all of the questions, it does tell us that Shots 1-8 all came from the same location, within a 1 meter radius.
Without time-synced recording sources, TDOA cannot provide the absolute location, but if you believe that any of the 8 shots came from the crooks position, then all 8 of them came from that same spot.
I feel like listening to all the different audio sources that was pretty apparent, but at least we have data to back it up now since people’s ears don’t work.
Just to be clear, for this model to work I had to choose an initial condition to define the location of one of the shots. Without time-synched recording sources I had no other choice. So, I picked the crooks location and saw that the other 7 shots came from that same place. It doesn’t matter which of the 8 shots I choose to be the initial value, the results turn out the same.
A position directly overlooking Crooks, from I believe 3 meters higher, in the same trajectory, would also work would it not?
I see the image of the bullet is at a slight decline, suggesting either a bullet drop and/or a slightly higher position. Or it could simply be the camera angle.
Where would that shooter be? I already have a line of fire for a shooter on the top left of the other 2 story building. I did another trajectory from the center of that roof which puts is right over Crooks, but the higher start point means it hits the corner of the bleacher a few less than a foot above the top bleacher seat.
The photo is not that carefully aligned and corrected. It could be a few degrees off one way or the other.
It appears you have the potential other shooter (the professional, main shooter) aligned off center from Crooks. However if that person were masking his shots he’d have had the entire rooftop to align placing Crooks directly between himself and Trump.
This would be a near exact same trajectory left-to-right and a imperceptable vertical trajectory difference. Another member measured the heights and my memory says it was 3 meters difference (e.g. I think it was measured at 411 meters and 414 meters above sea level, for the lower and upper positions).
Different bullet types, speeds, weights, brands, etc. could easily mask those vertical and drop trajectories (e.g. a slower heavier round might drop sooner in the trajectory than a lighter faster round).
A shot from above the ceiling through a vent that hits Trumps ear, DOES hit the railing but 12" higher than a shot from Crooks.
I straightened the Copenhaver image and put a level line from the vent and a lighter line of a possible trajectory from the vent, which would be lower than the eyepiece.
He was standing the time of the footage and standing at the shooting time.
The video of him filming was between that and the shotting with 1 minute difference. Improbable.
Also, the margin of error of Goggle height is 1 foot. That error in Trumps position results in 6 feet error at Crooks position. The 3D models presented will put Crooks within that margin of error.
I’m do not have any certainty of this, I’m just looking at probabilities.
For other improbable cenarios to exist would need more evidence, like the vent origin for exemple.
I know conspiracy theories would appear even if everyone believed it came from Crooks position. Like a small hole in the roof near Crooks. But I’m going where the most probable scenario is.
@Greg_n what would happen if you pick the vent location on the wall bellow Crooks for one of the shoots? Where will the model estimate the other locations?
It might be futile to try to trace the Trump-ear bullet in a straight line. Bullets, especially the AR15 .223/5.56 are notorious for deflecting. Here’s a simulation from a recent video test by Brandon Herrera on Youtube. Very similar to Trump’s injury, presumably. Could throw a bullet traveling at 2500 fps off by 10 feet between him and the railing impact. We just don’t know.
Mike has an excellent presentation of the null hypothesis of one shooter. I agree with almost all of his presentation. However, his audio analysis seems wrong and conflicts with Chris’ and with PP member Cohler which I favor (Audio Analysis Is Most Consistent Two Shooters At Trump Rally - #284 by cohler). Mike also has the delta between Crooks and Trumps ear at 3 feet, [edited] I have it at 2’9" after adjusting my grades to new topo data.
Sorry, I do not trust the 1 ft accuracy of Google height. Google says the ground under the stage is 2 ft. higher than the ground under the right bleacher (via Dmonk). That is clearly wrong.
There are a couple of other issues that make a second shooter a inescapable conclusion, unfortunately.
