A position directly overlooking Crooks, from I believe 3 meters higher, in the same trajectory, would also work would it not?
I see the image of the bullet is at a slight decline, suggesting either a bullet drop and/or a slightly higher position. Or it could simply be the camera angle.
Where would that shooter be? I already have a line of fire for a shooter on the top left of the other 2 story building. I did another trajectory from the center of that roof which puts is right over Crooks, but the higher start point means it hits the corner of the bleacher a few less than a foot above the top bleacher seat.
The photo is not that carefully aligned and corrected. It could be a few degrees off one way or the other.
It appears you have the potential other shooter (the professional, main shooter) aligned off center from Crooks. However if that person were masking his shots he’d have had the entire rooftop to align placing Crooks directly between himself and Trump.
This would be a near exact same trajectory left-to-right and a imperceptable vertical trajectory difference. Another member measured the heights and my memory says it was 3 meters difference (e.g. I think it was measured at 411 meters and 414 meters above sea level, for the lower and upper positions).
Different bullet types, speeds, weights, brands, etc. could easily mask those vertical and drop trajectories (e.g. a slower heavier round might drop sooner in the trajectory than a lighter faster round).
A shot from above the ceiling through a vent that hits Trumps ear, DOES hit the railing but 12" higher than a shot from Crooks.
I straightened the Copenhaver image and put a level line from the vent and a lighter line of a possible trajectory from the vent, which would be lower than the eyepiece.
Do we know where Copenhaver was and his position…standing or sitting?
I do not trust Google heights at all for this level of accuracy.
He was standing the time of the footage and standing at the shooting time.
The video of him filming was between that and the shotting with 1 minute difference. Improbable.
Also, the margin of error of Goggle height is 1 foot. That error in Trumps position results in 6 feet error at Crooks position. The 3D models presented will put Crooks within that margin of error.
Here is Mike Bell reaching the same conclusion:
Trump Shooting shot 9 n 10 | When did Snipers see Crooks (youtube.com)
I’m do not have any certainty of this, I’m just looking at probabilities.
For other improbable cenarios to exist would need more evidence, like the vent origin for exemple.
I know conspiracy theories would appear even if everyone believed it came from Crooks position. Like a small hole in the roof near Crooks. But I’m going where the most probable scenario is.
@Greg_n what would happen if you pick the vent location on the wall bellow Crooks for one of the shoots? Where will the model estimate the other locations?
Like this 3D model from @roger-knight.
It might be futile to try to trace the Trump-ear bullet in a straight line. Bullets, especially the AR15 .223/5.56 are notorious for deflecting. Here’s a simulation from a recent video test by Brandon Herrera on Youtube. Very similar to Trump’s injury, presumably. Could throw a bullet traveling at 2500 fps off by 10 feet between him and the railing impact. We just don’t know.
Mike has an excellent presentation of the null hypothesis of one shooter. I agree with almost all of his presentation. However, his audio analysis seems wrong and conflicts with Chris’ and with PP member Cohler which I favor (Audio Analysis Is Most Consistent Two Shooters At Trump Rally - #284 by cohler). Mike also has the delta between Crooks and Trumps ear at 3 feet, [edited] I have it at 2’9" after adjusting my grades to new topo data.
Sorry, I do not trust the 1 ft accuracy of Google height. Google says the ground under the stage is 2 ft. higher than the ground under the right bleacher (via Dmonk). That is clearly wrong.
There are a couple of other issues that make a second shooter a inescapable conclusion, unfortunately.
That could explain how it veered into Copenhaver.
If you believe in 2 feet error that makes a 12 feet margin error on Crooks position. It only makes it worst for most 3D models. The only way to verify that would be a topographer using a total GPS station.
Yes.
Here is the triangulation i made for his position from the images above:
This plot shows the data produced using the TDOA triangle created by the Ross+DJStew+Podium report time data. I chose this set because DJStew was moving during the data collection, which would highlight any errors. As expected, the model produces a reasonable cluster near the vent location. Although one could make a conclusion from this plot that the vent data looks “better” than the crooks position, I’m not so confident in how I estimated Dayve Stewert’s path of travel that I would say that. So, please don’t draw that conclusion.
The bottom line is that the TDOA analysis does not locate the origin of the shots, but it does prove that the first 8 shots all came from the same location.
Do we know where in the body he was hit?
Hi PhaseFive,
Thank you for your feedback and your strong efforts
I would like to challenge you.
In Crooks position he is not able to make that shot. See screen shot of Trumps head, Crooks shot (red line) would be touching Trumps cheek first and then the ear and then the shot does not hit the bleachers corner. The only matching shot is coming from the vent as you mentioned correctly. Please see screen shots below (red line is Crooks, blue line is the back traced bullet to the vent)
The famous photo you are using as a reference has been evaluated in this forum to be the second shot and not the first. Please see the conversations here:
Let’s work together and compare the sources. I would be glad to give out any information you need from me to evaluate my CAD model.
Together we are strong!
Not in my drawing:
There is more than one vent to chose from. Below, the little squares on the inside of the building represent possible vents (please share if you have photos of these “vents”). The heavy lines are windows, the one longer one is a door. The little squares outside of the building represent down spouts.
Please have a look at the below drawing of which all members in this Forum have participated. We have a reference for each point. Therefore, if you are doubting anything on this drawing, just ask us for the reference No and we will supply it to you…
The fact that you might not have seen this drawing yet, is because we are discussing it in the “So It’s Back To First Principles” forum.
I took pictures of all the vents and shared them somewhere. Here they are again along with a close-up video of them.
We are the same on some dims and quite different on others.
I have no faith in google elevations. I believe is measures to the tops of vegetation for example, so if you have a field of wheat it will tell you the ground elevation is 3 ft higher than it really is. I would like someone to simply measure multiple points around the ridge and eave of AGR 6 and see if you get any crazy numbers.
Thanks.
It is going to be the high middle vent in your last image. That’s the one.
