@Greg_n what would happen if you pick the vent location on the wall bellow Crooks for one of the shoots? Where will the model estimate the other locations?
Like this 3D model from @roger-knight.
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It might be futile to try to trace the Trump-ear bullet in a straight line. Bullets, especially the AR15 .223/5.56 are notorious for deflecting. Here’s a simulation from a recent video test by Brandon Herrera on Youtube. Very similar to Trump’s injury, presumably. Could throw a bullet traveling at 2500 fps off by 10 feet between him and the railing impact. We just don’t know.
Mike has an excellent presentation of the null hypothesis of one shooter. I agree with almost all of his presentation. However, his audio analysis seems wrong and conflicts with Chris’ and with PP member Cohler which I favor (Audio Analysis Is Most Consistent Two Shooters At Trump Rally - #284 by cohler). Mike also has the delta between Crooks and Trumps ear at 3 feet, [edited] I have it at 2’9" after adjusting my grades to new topo data.
Sorry, I do not trust the 1 ft accuracy of Google height. Google says the ground under the stage is 2 ft. higher than the ground under the right bleacher (via Dmonk). That is clearly wrong.
There are a couple of other issues that make a second shooter a inescapable conclusion, unfortunately.
That could explain how it veered into Copenhaver.
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If you believe in 2 feet error that makes a 12 feet margin error on Crooks position. It only makes it worst for most 3D models. The only way to verify that would be a topographer using a total GPS station.
Yes.
Here is the triangulation i made for his position from the images above:
3 meters from the left rail.
This plot shows the data produced using the TDOA triangle created by the Ross+DJStew+Podium report time data. I chose this set because DJStew was moving during the data collection, which would highlight any errors. As expected, the model produces a reasonable cluster near the vent location. Although one could make a conclusion from this plot that the vent data looks “better” than the crooks position, I’m not so confident in how I estimated Dayve Stewert’s path of travel that I would say that. So, please don’t draw that conclusion.
The bottom line is that the TDOA analysis does not locate the origin of the shots, but it does prove that the first 8 shots all came from the same location.
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Do we know where in the body he was hit?
Hi PhaseFive,
Thank you for your feedback and your strong efforts
I would like to challenge you.
In Crooks position he is not able to make that shot. See screen shot of Trumps head, Crooks shot (red line) would be touching Trumps cheek first and then the ear and then the shot does not hit the bleachers corner. The only matching shot is coming from the vent as you mentioned correctly. Please see screen shots below (red line is Crooks, blue line is the back traced bullet to the vent)
The famous photo you are using as a reference has been evaluated in this forum to be the second shot and not the first. Please see the conversations here:
Let’s work together and compare the sources. I would be glad to give out any information you need from me to evaluate my CAD model.
Together we are strong!
Not in my drawing:
There is more than one vent to chose from. Below, the little squares on the inside of the building represent possible vents (please share if you have photos of these “vents”). The heavy lines are windows, the one longer one is a door. The little squares outside of the building represent down spouts.
Please have a look at the below drawing of which all members in this Forum have participated. We have a reference for each point. Therefore, if you are doubting anything on this drawing, just ask us for the reference No and we will supply it to you…
The fact that you might not have seen this drawing yet, is because we are discussing it in the “So It’s Back To First Principles” forum.
I took pictures of all the vents and shared them somewhere. Here they are again along with a close-up video of them.
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We are the same on some dims and quite different on others.
DrawingStandards-Compared.pdf (569.2 KB)
I have no faith in google elevations. I believe is measures to the tops of vegetation for example, so if you have a field of wheat it will tell you the ground elevation is 3 ft higher than it really is. I would like someone to simply measure multiple points around the ridge and eave of AGR 6 and see if you get any crazy numbers.
Thanks.
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It is going to be the high middle vent in your last image. That’s the one.
hello PhaseFive,
what would you think about a shooter located on top of the tallest building behind crooks?
I created a kml file which you can download from
there is a direct line of sight from both of these roofs and the angle of these lines of sight differ slightly…
thanks for your feedback!
he was shot in the head. there are some quite graphic images. if you want I can copy paste these.
from my view, he was injured with the 9th shot and killed by the 10th because of the large trail of blood.
if he had been killed with the 9th shot, his heart would not have pumped out so much blood.
the blood trail was thus the consequence of the 10 seconds delay between shots 9 and 10
I was asking about Copenhaver. You must be talking about Corey Comperatore.
no, I was talking about the man who died on the roof, commonly referred to as crooks
Oh. Right. You asked me to trace lines of fire, so I trying to see where the victims were hit so I could be more specific about where the bullet ended. I was being lazy. I could try to find it on a search engine. Sorry to misdirect you.