If you are referring the the rally field, that is not what I see in the photos. However there is a substaintial rise in grade from AGR6 to the rally field.
hello Greg,
could you use in your model the initial location I suggested above?
thanks!
the photos and videos are very misleading about the height differences of the rally area!
the area that is blackened out is below 408m sea level:
below 409m:
below 410m:
below 411m:
below 412m:
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ground level where the podium of Trump was installed was 409.87m
ground level of the corner of the right bleacher was 408.99m
It looks like if I adjust my model to the grades in your images, I need to move Trump and the bleachers down 12". I am seeing 1.3 meter delta between the interior floor and the area of Trumpâs stage.
that is exact!
OK I will do it.
eventually, you will see that the shooter position indicated in this picture is very plausible 
in this last picture, you see 3 pins below. the 3rd (also the middle one) is where Trump stood on the podium
the 2nd pin to the bottom of the image is where the right corner of the bleachers was
and the lowerst pin is the impact on the JCB hydraulic lift.
the trajectories from the roof of building 6 and the roof of the tallest building at the AGR parking are extremely closely aligned
someone who stood around the rally area would never be able to distinguish whether shots came from the lower or higher roof
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I think you will want your shooter to be nearer the center of the upper roof to have a trajectory directly over Crooks.
But you know⊠there were several cops and video rolling in the parking area, when the shots were fired and no one turned toward the front two story building. Remember boosted-cop and the cop who boosted him were there as well as the walking-cop who came from the power lines. We have boosted and walking-copâs body cam. And there are some other problemsâŠbut I will see where the trajectory falls.
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these cops and the audience were primed to look at the lowest roof and if you are standing on the parking of the AGR site you could as easily believe that the shots came from the lower roof and echoed against the wall of the higher building
and there is a direct line of sight/ear to the witnesses near the trees and RealDjStew
about 480 ft between the location where I would put the real shooter and the witnesses at the trees
and 450 ft between that shooter and RealDjStew
I plugged that location into the model, but it did not work well. Only five of the 8 shots resolved to a lat/lon value, and it placed shot 3 in the parking lot. So, the data rules out this location.
OK. I readjusted my grades with some interpolation fudging between grade contours. I put in your shooterâs ridge line at 1368.11â and made AGR Bld 6 ridge to be 1352.69â. Hope I understood correctly. I put your shooter nearer the center of the 2nd story roof so his trajectory would be right over Crooks. I have Crooks 40â from the end of the building.
What I get is your shooterâs line of fire is 8â above Crooks, 7â6" above his line of fire by the time it gets to the edge of AGR 6. I then nick Trumpâs ear and your bullet lands very near the back corner of the south bleacher, about 1 foot+ above the top seat. Which is 16" below Crooksâ impact point. The 16" delta is a stable dimension, the others are subject to best guess variables.
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In my opinion, you should not ignore the following scenario:
Trumpâs ear was not hit.
The second shooter was not a human, but a machine that automatically aimed and fired the gun. As a result, even a small hole in the wall of the rear two-story building would have been sufficient. Such an opening would probably not be visible on any video.
This could have had the advantage that live ammunition could have been fired in the direction of Trump without endangering him. Simply by choosing the position so that the roof of building 6 would have blocked shots between Trumpâs head and the second gun.
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Hey Phase 5,
Thanks for your feedback.
We are almost in agreement with all points! Thatâs a good sign!
So maybe letâs take the differences one by one?
Having two points clearly defined in space only has one line, either it goes back to Crooks, or it goes back to somewhere else in building 6. Letâs find out together.
Crooks riffle position:
I once posted 39â and then schroederized corrected me, rightfully so, indicating that the body is at 39â and crooks gun position being right-handed is at 40â. See his post here:
and he corrected me again with this post:
Schroederized being a very accurate guy, can we agree on 40â?
Floor heights:
We put a lot of research in floor heights. Up to now nobody could disprove the following 3 heights:
AGR building: 1335
Trumps stage position: 1337
Bleachers wheels position: 1336
We are using very accurate KML Topographical maps from Land ID and not Google Earth. Please look at this post for details:
Please download the KML file and verify each point of interest yourself.
Bleachers:
Please have a look at the drawing from schroederized. The impact point is at 10â 10 ÂŒâ
I think we agree with that height. But please note that the bleachers are set on wheels which are positioned in the center of the stage. That floor height according to Land ID is 1336 Therefore you should add 1 foot to your calculation. Another 1 Inch higher comes from the fact that the bleachers are jacked up to be stabilized by adding wooden riser blocks and putting the jack under pressure. See video here:
That is already a lot. I will let you verify, and we can take it from there.
One suggestion. I see you are evaluating multiple shot positions, but we only need two: 3D line from Crooks to either Trumps ear or the bleacher corner (it canât be both, because they are not in line). Then the only other line we need is the back traced bullet, which is drawing a 3D line from the bleachers corner to Trumps ear. If you extend that line, you will see it almost points directly to one of those vents in building 6.
Together we are strong!
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very true. that is why I always say that his ear was grazed. Trumpâs ear injury can as easily have been caused by the air turbulence of the bullet passing extremely close by his head/earâŠ
there is even scientific publications on the type and occurrence frequency of graze wounds: An Unusual Feature of Graze Gunshot Wounds - PMC
quote from this paper: âThe eye does not see what the mind does not know â (Attributed to D.H. Lawrence, 19th century English novelist and many others). The unusual feature of graze wounds described here could easily be missed in many cases. Although often subtle, this finding was surprisingly common once it was looked for carefully and specifically. The parallel abrasions defining this unusual finding were usually small (1/16 of an inch) as observed in 18 of the 31 identified wounds (58%). But rarely they were fairly obvious (3/16 to 5/16 of an inch), as observed in five of 31 identified wounds (16%). Among all of the 227 graze wounds examined in a decade at a moderately busy medical examinerâs office, a wound with this unusual feature > 3/16 of an inch might only be expected to occur approximately five times in ten years or in this setting in 2.2% of the graze wounds (5/227).
unfortunately, this work from 1980 is not available online:
it is very unlikely that these three ground level references are round values in ft!
I mentioned this many times, you need to be much more precise in these valuesâŠ
use cm-level values for the ground levels. you can express them in ft if you want, but you really need much finer precision for these valuesâŠ
about the blue line of 503.13 ft on the right of your scheme: could you also tell me the angle between the front of building 6 and that blue line?
thanks!
thanks for your feedback.
what bullet weights, bullet shapes and muzzle velocities are you using in your model?
what is the distance between the lowest point in the front and the vertical projection of the point where you put the arrow labeled âapproximate bullet strike point at 1346.65 4 1/4 from top of bleachersâ?
instead of the average, I would take the highest point of the left or right front corner and use that as a reference instead of the average ground level, because that highest point cannot be ignored when placing the bleachers, and the 3 other corners can be height-adjusted accordingly with the construction of supports to stabilize the bleachersâŠ
Hi howdoiknowthisinfo,
Please find below the three screenshots which are self-explanatory.
If you want it even more accurate, I can go ahead using the provided curve and go into the sub feet levels? Should I do that?
Apparently a congressional committee has released information stating that Butler SWAT officer fired a shot (Iâm assuming this is shot #9) that struck Crooksâ gun either preventing or at least slowing his ability to carry on shooting. Reported on Pittsburgh local news.
âThat shot was about 100 yards away and it hit Crooksâ rifle stock and it fragmented in to his face, neck, and right shoulder area from the stock breaking up. Crooks went down but recovered after a few seconds and popped back up.â
I am still troubled by the location of shot 10. Some say it was from the south red barn (Hercules 1). The early TDOA analysis by greg_n suggested shot 10 came from just north of the audience. And other sources, including Trump himself, say the kill shot was from a much farther distance (from a covert secret counter sniper location), I think they were saying either 400 or 450 YARDS away from Crooks.
The snick-boom time analyses suffer from unknowns including the muzzle velocity of the rounds, the bullet weight and diameter which affects air resistance and magnitude of slowing, and the amount by which each shot missed the microphone.
TDOA theoretically should give a more accurate, more valid location provided there are enough microphones of known position. TDOA only depends on the speed of sound, the location of microphones, and the location of at least one of the sounds.
Could the kill shot have been from 450 yards and have been suppressed to the degree that it made no sound and shows up on zero microphones?
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