I’m using Google Earth Pro for mapping and running it in Universal Transverse Mercator mode vs. Decimal Degrees. So, meters East, North and Up is the native measurement. If someone gives me a point in decimal degrees, I just put it in Earth’s “search” box and let it do the conversion.
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Ok, I don’t know about everything you’re claiming, but there were no cameras recording the 3rd window at the time of the first 3 shots.
The Stewert video has captured it before and then after the first 3 shots, but at the time of those: it was aimed at the sky/leaves/tree.
The bodycam video abruptly changes direction immediately before the first 3 shots ring out after the officer had yelled for people to get out of the way. (Doesn’t send out a single audio command to the guy on the roof with a rifle…but yells at the people on the fenceline. Interesting.)
If you have a single video actually showing the 3rd window at the time of the first 3 shots, by all means: please share.
As far as the timing, something weird has been done to the 3rd window in the Stewert video. There’s no reason for that window to behave the way it does.
Would there be enough time to drop a temporary window pane, fire 3 shots, and replace the pane per the Stewert video timing and the 3rd window’s strange appearance? Yes. Plenty.
Yes, I do incorporate a correction for barrel length, using the factors that you provided previously. First, I use a rough approximation to boost up the computed velocity at 460 feet to account for temperature and elevation, and then I apply the barrel length correction. If no barrel length is listed, I assume that it’s 16 inch. That may not be the best assumption, but that’s what I’m doing for now.
Vm = velocity(1); %Muzzle velocity
Vd = Vm * exp(-459.6 / k); %velocity @ 460 ft
%Apply factor to account for Butler temp & altitude vs. standard
%atmoshphere, using Remington Premier Match 77gr as prototype
vf = (2462-2422) / 2422; %(Vhot - Vstd) / Vstd
Vd = Vd + Vd*vf;
V = (Vm + Vd) / 2; %average velocity
bLen = velocities(n,6); %grab barrel length from table
if bLen == 20
V = V * 0.95;
elseif bLen > 20
V = V * 0.92;
end
Instead of using this rough approximation, it would be better for actual ballistic software to be used, such as the GNU library mentioned by @howdoiknowthisinfo here, but I don’t have the time to do that myself. However, I did run the 75gr TAP Precision manually in a ballistic calculator and found that it estimated 2414 at the 460 foot mark, which is 14 fps over my rough estimate, so not too bad.
So, I ran the calculations on your AmmoData-V5.xlsx and found that not much changed, but we do get one additional candidate: Hornady Critical Defense FTX 55gr. However, it has a BC of 0.175 vs. 0.355 for the TAP Precision, and this big difference pulls my velocity estimate way off the mark, 2508 fps from the online calculator vs. 2418 in my estimate. That kicks the actual average velocity up to 2874, putting that round out of contention. Therefore, given all that, there is no change to the table of candidates I posted yesterday, and at this point I’ll wait to see if someone does a more accurate run though your data set and comes up with different candidates.
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which is why I asked all the sound analyses people to provide me with the concrete stuff that I can add to the calculations/tables overview such that it makes everybody’s life easier…
so far, I have added the average bullet speed for each trajectory point (steps of 0.25 yard) and the snik-report calculation for the various lines of fire with respect to the positions of:
- RealDjStew
- the witnesses near the trees
- the police car on the AGR parking
- Trump’s microphone
How, specifically does Window 3 “behave?” Please elaborate.
I’m going to predict you’re going to claim window 3 has lots of different reflections and other oddities. Those however are entirely due to the radically different lateral and vertical angles of video in relationship to window 3. Window 2 has similar reflections. When put to a gif in fancy editing they might appear that window 3 is moving but that’s an illusion because of the wide angles of the different images taken from hard angles to the SE or SW and straight on from the window. Some standing. Some crouching. Look at the direction of the roof line ridges and you can see the angles. Window 2 offers many of the same “rope” reflections, or white reflections, etc.
We see red, clearly reflecting the red barns. We see white, possibly the white clouds in the sky, possibly the roofs of the red barns, etc. We see a white “rope” in both windows, representing a defect/bend in the glass near the top.
Here are examples.
False. I have gone to lengths to break this down frame-by-frame. Window 3 is on video almost continually all the way up to 1 second before the shooting, it is off screen for 4-5 seconds, and then in plain video view almost continually for many minutes thereafter. At NO TIME is Window 3 opened/closed, removed/replaced. WE can tell because it casts a reflection the entire time. 4-5 seconds would be insufficient time for anyone, even with help, to open a window, fire 3 shots, and close it without detection from the cop standing right there, Stewart filming, or the dozen witnesses at the fence facing AGR6 when shots erupted.
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Sounds good. Where is your overview posted?
The difference in decimal degrees and Mercator is in the precision. Mercator is 0.01m, and decimal degrees is 0.11m. But in Mercator there is a bug when you save a placemark, it truncates the postions to the meter. So I use decimal degrees to position the placemarks than to export the position I use the Mercator.
I explained this here:
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hello Greg,
this is the message I referred to.
meanwhile, I have added the snick-report delay in ms to the table and the average bullet speed for every line in the table…
I can easily add whatever is necessary and relevant for each line, e.g., in relation to the location of the different audio recordings…
I want to start out with a dilemma I have with the “back tracing” bullet project. Something you probably are not aware of, because I have not provided this information yet.
We have two pictures, one coming from Google Maps and another from Reuters (drone top view of the Trump rally) The only thing we need to do is to perfectly superpose the two pictures to get all the XZ values. If we would have had an even higher top view from the Reuters, we wouldn’t need to use the Goole Maps at all.
The problem is that we don’t have enough common points to be exactly oriented correctly, since the dirt roads in the two pictures have changed.
Probably the Google Maps picture is old and frankly speaking there is no super match. I have been trying to do it for a long time now.
This is why I asked @rough_country_gypsy to take a very high up top view with his drone, something that unfortunately was not possible for him to do, due to airport regulations. So, it left me with a possible error in the ZX plane, either I match the upper part of the dirt road or I match the lower part.
This is also a reason why in version 5 we are pointing to Vent 3 and in version 6 we are pointing to window 3. But the two images are good enough to draw conclusions without reasonable doubt. You can see with this photo used for version 6 of the “back traced bullet” project, we are rotated slightly counter clock wise.
This is also why we point to window 3. As everybody knows in this forum the slightest rotation down by the rally gives huge differences to the impact point on the wall of building 6.
Just quickly, I want to tell a funny story: We are very grateful for these dirt roads because without them it would make it almost impossible for us to orient the rally picture. In the beginning when I joined this forum, I explained to everyone how you can use these two pictures and how to interpose them with the dirt roads. Can you believe that two days later, Google deleted the dirt roads in Google maps? If you go to Google maps now you can see this:
They literally deleted all the dirt roads! Is Google trying to cover up something? This action just simply gave me more motivation to continue this project.
OK, this is a very boring introduction, but I had to get it out of the way, because what I am now about to present is alleged proof of a completely mind-blowing matter! Anybody standing, sit down please and people with a weak heart don’t continue to read, because you might get a heart attack with this information, all based on hard FACTS!
So, in this post, I would like to give total credit to @MacD and @Bigtim who solved the mystery! Congratulations, and big applause to them 
for finding the alleged proof that there were 2 shooters excluding Crooks (Uhhh, it’s getting interesting….)
I was discussing the topic with Bigtim in my prior post about the split window theory, namely having a upper window and lower window, making it possible for the shooter to shoot out of the open window without being seen by anybody, using two custom made windows. This is not a far-fetched thing to imagine, knowing the ARG company is a glass research company.
Please look at this post which explains in a very easy way what I am referring to.
In one of my past posts I was referring to the fact that you can actually see the two half windows after the shooting, because they have already taken off the thin Plexiglas sheet which covers up the two superposed windows. So before shooting the windows were covered with a thin Plexiglas see-through foil, which gives you the reddish color coming from the barns that are directly behind Stewart. The rope is most likely an aid to be able to quickly remove the Plexiglas foil shortly before the shooter gets ready to aim.
We can see this in the following frame by frame analyses taken from the @realDJStew724 video from T-7.83 seconds to T-4.80:
T-7.86 and T-7.50
The Plexiglas foil is pulled inside the room:
Then it starts to get strange… the camera goes down at T-6:83… I am getting curios to see what we will see next time when window 3 is visible? The two split windows? The helper looking out the open window? What will we see?
Then strangely enough T-6:80 (30 milliseconds later) the video seems to be cut, because the flowers in the gras are completely different. What is going on… It is simply not possible in 30 milliseconds to change the scenery completely, somebody inserted some frames to cover up something?
When the camera goes back up you can see an impossible frame, it is one that does not follow the logic sequence of T-7.86 and T-7.50. Most likely you would see very damming evidence of this the helper in this sequence. Keep in mind Stewart was arrested and his phone only returned 4 days later, ample time to plant this sequence in the video.
So in T-6:60 there is no there there, knowing now that this sequence was planted to cover up damaging frames and the rope is also in a funny positon.
But wait, if they cut it once, then how do they get back to the original video… well let’s have a look:
T-6:43 to frame T6:40 seems to be the frames where we jump back into the original:
then we get to T-4:93 ahh, finally a clear view of the two split windows! Of course the shooter needs some time to aim….
T-4:80 ahh, and we finally get to see the helper. Did he forget to turn off his head lamp? It seems to be on the lowest dim level. Maybe he thought it was completely turned off. Lucky for us, because we can see everything what he is doing with a perfect back light contrast. Maybe being a bit nervous and maybe he cut his hand with the sharp glass? Only speculating…
OK, so getting back to my post, bigtime drew my attention to something that I have not seen before, namely window 2 had the exact same interrupted intersection in the middle of the window…
So, both windows have been prepared in the same way having two half windows ready to be able to shoot out of the window 2 or 3? Plan A and plan B? It would make sense, let’s say somebody is standing in the trajectory between window 3 and Trump, so they quickly can move to window 2. Which also immediately reminded about the very controversial notches in the fence, which unfortunately turned out not to be in the trajectory between window 3 and Trump, @rough_country_gypsy proved it to me, when he visited on site.
The notches missis by one fence for window 3. But could it be that window 2 matches up perfectly with notches and Trump? Uhhh, something that needs to be investigated!
Then the second lead came from BigTim, when I came out with the body cam BWC2122104-0RATF catching the first shot on video!!! This video has been officially released from the official butler police drop box BWC2122104-0RATF which can be found here:
I recommend EVERYBODY to take 5 Min and download file 1302_202407131800_BWC2122104-0RATF.mp4 and keep it carefully on your hard disk locally, because after this post it might be taken down, trying to cover up our findings, just like Google with the dirt roads….
The argument BigTim had was you see a flashing light in window 2 very similar to the one in window 3, the argument being you can’t claim window 2 to be a flashlight and window 3 to be a shot.
Thanks to BigTim findings let’s assume both lights we see, the one coming from window 2 and the other from window 3, are shots!
Well, having loaded Stewart’s audio in Audacity software I measured the time in between the shots giving me the following time sequences:
So setting a time stamp on the first flashing light coming from window 2 we conclude the following:
We could exactly map 4 shots showing within miliseconds that the first shot 1 came from window 2, shot 6 from window 2 and shot 7 came from window 3 and shot 8 from window 2 again. Assuming the first 3 shots are from a sniper weapon which was bolt-action, meaning the sniper must manually chamber the next round, which slows down follow-up shots. They changed rifles and shots 4 – 8 in tandem, explaining the quick interval between the shots. It also would lead to the conclusion that Crooks was a patsy, waiting on the roof simply to get shot.
Another mystery “Blood in the bathroom” could also maybe be solved: did one of the helpers forget to wear gloves when manipulating the sharped edged windows? In the body cam release by Grassley a guy says: “So the operator suffered some damage to his hand while climbing up the wall, he might need minor stitching.” But we all know that the only guy who climbed up the wall was the same person from the body cam. Nobody else climbs up a wall because in the Stewart’s video, you see how they take a wooden pallet to climb up to the roof for the first time.
So to verify if the first shot that hits Trumps ear and the bleachers comes from window 3, I quickly rotated the rally top view footprint using my tolerance of error do to the inaccuracy of the dirt road and got the following picture.
The fact that the two roof tops don’t match is correct, because there is a small perspective difference between the two pictures, so I matched them at floor level, not at roof level. That’s why they seem a little bit offset.
With this new superposed image, I quickly simulated the first shot coming from Window 2, and bingo everything matches perfectly! So, the first shot came from window 2!!!
And now for the icing on the cake:
The notches in the fence fit perfectly in line between window 2 and Trump.
One request to @rough_country_gypsy, please keep all your pictures you have with these notches in the fence in a safe place, or even better make backups. I heard you also made video from the fence. Did you have somebody with you who witnessed these notches? I am simply worried that within the next days, the fence will be replaced, destroying our last evidence. Or even better, if somebody is near Butler and can make an investigative visit just like gypsy did and take a simple video walking up that fence from the trees where Stewart was standing all the way up to the upper trees, always focusing on the top of the fence. If it is difficult to get so close to the ARG building, maybe some has a drone?
With these new findings I will update the drawing from version 6 to version 7 accordingly.
Thank you Bigtim and MacD, and all who helped solving the case!
Together we are strong!
Disclaimer:
This is just a hypothetical analysis subject to be debunked. This is for Citizen investigation purposes only.
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Trump safe after shooter near golf course
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Not sure if this has been posted yet, here’s another point of view with more audio data points, video appears to be very near trumps podium:
Tracy Hines on X: “#PatriotsInButler #TrumpAssassinationAttempt #InsideJob #Justice4Corey #WeDontStop #WeDontPlayGames #J13 #ButlerPA #FightFightFight #ButlerPAJ13” / X
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Roger when doing investigate work you must use the highest resolution photographs. 1000x756 potato cam screen shots don’t cut it.
Below is your Reuters one now in Hi Def 3866x2895 ~16x the pixles
Below on this Hi Def 5000x3334 vertical drone photo (arial-view-large.jpg) you can just about read the label’s on the drink bottles LOL
On Google earth use the 11/2021 date pictures as their far superior ( hit the clock symbol next to the sun & select)
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No, this is not going to fly. This is another attempt to do what they did last time where they said “Trump was startled by loud noises during the rally” or some such.
The suspect is a rabid anti-Trump guy, anti-police, BLM supporter, Ukraine fanatic, etc. He had a rifle and he’d figured out Trump’s location. It was another assassination attempt. It wasn’t just “gunfire nearby”.
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Yep, that went out the window real quick. The presser with most the players led by the local Sheriff gave a lot of info about the case.
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Do not discount anything, it’s too early, have we not learned this?
We should avoid jumping to conclusions, but I have a very hard time tolerating anyone trying to downplay a murder attempt. I see no reason to be tolerant of that.
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The current story is believable, it works for now.
USSS rolling coverage on the golf course ahead of Trump, saw the rifle and engaged the suspect. A SWAG, with their sidearms from a distance. It sounds like the backpacks hanging on the fence with improvised plates may have saved the shooter from them.
He took off and the witness in the parking lot heard the gunfire and saw him running away. So he snapped a pic the the vehicle with license plate visible. Which went into their plate reader system to track his movement.
ETA: how easy to have a rifle in a golf bag with a head cover on the barrel. I think I have seen that in a movie.
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That’s the point. We don’t know if the incident was a murder attempt.
Every indication is that it was a murder attempt, including the suspect’s background, the fact that he was hiding with a rifle, that he was trying to film it, that he fled the scene, etc.
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