Audio Analysis Is Most Consistent Two Shooters At Trump Rally

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Thanks for the reply - “Microphone 4 cannot be used since it is non-line of sight to the shooter for shots 1-3” . . . but I respectfully do not agree.

The Source 4 audio (when the shots were fired) has line-off sight to the south facing second floor AGR BLD2 windows - very few positions will have line of site to the shooter rifles positioned inside the rooms behind the open windows - and Source 4 does not have line-off sight to Crooks - but the latter audio still provides useful examinable data (I think).

Anyway - when I working-up Source 2 comparative audio data (using the indicated approach) it provides results that at a minimum are directionally qualitatively consistent with the indicated 4-shooter hypothesis - and seem to be quantitatively consistent in view of measurement errors etc. If I get a better audio track plot for Source 2 that has the reference time-bar - I will go back and do fresh top-down look - work-up and post findings for the comparative analysis for both sources.

Once you see it - you will not be able to unsee it! :slight_smile: But you don’t have to wait for me.

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WRONG. WRONG. WRONG

THERE WAS A 2ND SHOOTER WHO WAS 33 TO 55 ft CLOSER TO TRUMP.

PROVE ME WRONG

The video used is the MAIN FEED that all the news organizations were broadcasting. It is the MAIN MIC that Trump is talking into. And the time from the “snik” to the “report” is EXACTLY 220 ms as I said.

Here is the video. Check for yourself.

The snik for shot #1 begins at 4.808 secs on the video.
The report for shot #1 begins at 5.028 secs.
The difference is exactly 220 ms.

The speed of sound on July 13, 2024 in Butler, PA
Between 1161.4 to 1168.1 fps as I already derived in my previous post.

Muzzle velocity
5.56 NATO 55 gr = between 3000 and 3240 fps.
223 Remington 55 gr =3240 fps.

The math is simple and can be done by any middle school student.

d = Distance from Mic to shooter muzzle
s = speed of sound
b = speed of bullet
ts = time of sound arrival
tb = time of bullet arrival

s x ts = b x tb = d (velocity times time equals distance)
ts - tb = .220 s =>
d/s - d/b = .220 =>
d = 220 / (1/s - 1/b)

1/s is between 1/1168.1 and 1/1161.4 or .000856 to .000861
1/b is between 1/3240 and 1/3000 or .000309 to .000333

So the largest value of (1/s - 1/b) is .000861 - .000309 = .000552
and the smallest value is .000856 - .000333 = .000523

So d is between .220 / .000552 = 399 ft
and .220 / .000523 = 421 ft

So depending on the type of round used, the muzzle was from 399 to 421 ft from Trump.

Looking at Google Earth, the muzzle of Crooks gun was clearly about 454 ft from Trump.

This is WAY outside the uncertainty range of my calculation.

THERE WAS A 2ND SHOOTER WHO WAS 33 TO 55 ft CLOSER TO TRUMP.

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Daniloraf – ahhhh! A kindred spirit – you test me in front of the little ones.
Everybody knows that the Imperium would not dare to equip the 5th operator that was located in the Butler water tower with a Lasgun because of the potential catastrophic effect of hitting a Holtzman energy shield - that was probably deployed around the Trump podium. For the little ones – if a Lasgun is fired at a Holtzman protective energy shield - it will cause a momentary harmonic quantum coupling effect with the zero-point-energy field – resulting in a massive explosion comparable to setting off an atomic that would vaporize everyone in the vicinity.
Eventually – I hope folks are going to dig into the other more diffuse audio signals before and concomitant with Shot 1 and perhaps construct a bigger PTAT picture. But one step at a time. Please no more talk of Lasguns! :blush:
Best of luck all.
pbd

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I do know that bullets decelerate as a function of drag. If you look up the ballistics table as a function of distance from the barrel muzzle for .223 or 5.56 rounds you may have to adjust your number. We do not know which round it is or what type of round, there are so many different types within a caliber with different weight and drag/ballistic coefficients. That is why we cannot use supersonic cracks to determine differences in shooter range. Bullet speeds are too variant. Speed of sound never changes for a temperature (maybe a slight change due to humidity but in the third significant figure). I cannot judge distance because the first shooter may have used a .30 caliber (7.62, .308) which is completely different than .223. Speed of sound remains the same for different bullets and calibers. I have designed shooter location systems and analyzed my competition’s products.

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This is a high-quality post, thank you. I redid your algebra and I agree with it. Then, I wrote some code that used your numbers, and I agree with the numbers you got.

Now I’m just going to play around and see what happens if the speed of sound was a tad slower than you think, or if the round was a bit slower than you think, etc. Thanks.

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For some reason, my last post connected to the wrong posting. One thing that must be made clear, to synchronize different audio streams without a centralized time reference, they must all use the same emission from a known location and the microphones must know their locations to determine time of flight offsets from a common to all signal. Then all microphone time can be synchronous. I believe shot 4 is best to align clocks since it is from the roof and generated by Crooks at a known location. Shot 4 is also nearer in time to shots 1-3 so we do not have to worry as much about relative clock drifts. I would think cell phones would have temperature compensated oscillators and clocks but you never know depending upon the model.

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As Chris M has already pointed out the 2nd shooter could have been in the ceiling INSIDE the building. If he was approximately at the 2nd window from the right or slightly to the left of that in the ceiling inside the building, that would be at the EXACT distance I’ve caculated AND in the EXACT line of sight to Trump.

Furthermore, the deceleration due to drag is negligible over 400 ft.

It would amount to maybe 50 ft/sec difference in average speed or 1.5%.

Doesn’t change the conclusion. The numbers are still WAY outside the range.

The first 3 shots DID NOT come from Crooks gun.

That is also corroborated by the VIDEO showing Crooks shoulder MOTIONLESS at the moment of the first shot.

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My post has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with synchronizing different audio streams.

It uses ONE and ONLY ONE audio stream.

That’s all that is required.

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I already gave you the range of bullet speeds.

And if you take elevation above sea-level into account (366 m) that would slow the speed of sound by perhaps 1%, which would make the shot 5 or 10 ft CLOSER to Trump.

It does not change the conclusion. Indeed, it makes the conclusion more solid.

THERE WAS A 2nd SHOOTER.

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I look at your youtube video very interesting - it helped me understand your approach much better - I need to think about your approach - my first blush - from what I can understand about the TDOA approach is that how you sync audio spectra (tracks) is very important and simply syncing gun report signals from cellphone audios to the Shot 1 sonic crack at Trumps microphone - plus then looking as cumulative deltas (signal shifts/positions) makes the analysis way more complex and counter intuitive - at least for me. But I want to think about it more before a comment further - again very impressive youtube video.
All the best,
pbd

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Please be reasonable. I’m pretty sure a bullet can travel slower than 3000 f/s, right?

For example, what if the speed of sound is at the top of the range you gave, 1168.1 f/s, and the round traveled at 2691 f/s. Do you agree that under those circumstances, a crack-boom difference of 0.22s would indicate a distance of 454 f?

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There are no standard 5.56 NATO or 223 Remington 55 gr rounds that go that slow.

He bought the bullets at a gun store.

NAME ONE BRAND that has a muzzle velocity rating anywhere near that.

Bullets don’t make up their own minds about how fast they go.

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I’ll take your word for the bullets. Probably true.
How do you know where Crooks got his ammo?

Please don’t make up ridiculous ideas and stick them in the mouths of people who are complimenting your work, reproducing it, and trying to help you solve a murder. Thanks.

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You said “a bullet can travel slower than 3000 fps”. NO bullets do not make up their own minds.

They travel at the speed they were designed to travel at.

The STANDARD bullets for the rifle he was using travel between 3000 and 3240 fps. NONE of those travel anywhere near 2700 fps.

To get down to that velocity it would have to be a massive bullet in the 72 gr range which are virtually impossible to find even online at the big ammo warehouses. Certainly, they are not available at a typical gun store.

PROVE ME WRONG

Find a brand that is commonly available in 556 NATO or 223 Remington that has a muzzle velocity <~2700 fps.

Good luck.

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It was all over the press that he went and bought ammo at a local gun store the day before.

“The 20-year-old purchased ammunition shortly before the incident, both online and in-person, according to law enforcement sources.”
— ABC News

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Yes, and my statement is completely true and totally uncontroversial.

I believe you. But we don’t know much about the rounds that were actually fired.

You seem a tad cranky. I’ll try to talk to you again later after you’ve been burped and put down for your nap or whatever.

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OK, this could be true. ABC has told ten thousand lies every day for the past decade, but it might be telling the truth about that issue. Let’s assume it’s probably true, because I don’t know why anyone would want to use weirdly slow ammo.

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“a bullet can travel slower” does NOT mean the same thing as “there are bullets that exist for Crooks’ gun that travel slower”.

Words have meaning.

Your phrase implies that bullets can change their speed somehow. NO. Bullets are designed to travel at a quite precise speed when exiting the muzzle plus or minus a small variance.

The bullets I referred to are the STANDARD bullets used in the Crooks’ rifle and I purposely used a WIDE range of possible bullets for that gun already in my calculation.

Have a good rest.

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I found the cause of Cullens “muzzle flashes” in windows below Crooks, IT’S CARLIGHTS!

You can see that car with lights on in DJStew’s video (at 06:18 mark) in front of that big red tractor (or whatever it is called) with boom. That big red thing was clearly visible in vide of Crooks running on the roof. Here’s link to Stew’s video (06:18):

https://x.com/realDJStew724/status/1817781521190662306

Here’s cop’s bodycam video in good 1080p quality, showing at 04:30 mark DJStew and behind him that big red tractor and car in front of it with lights on. From there cop moves from east to west right next to that house and you get good view of the scenery to the left where that big red tractor, car with lights on are, also notice those 2 highest booms to the right from big red (probably holding lights); these 2 big silhouettes against bright sky comes in handy when you follow those 3 first windows when cop passes by. You can see silhouette of these 2 big things that helps you to be sure those 2 lights in 3 windows comes from that car. in 3rd window only 1 light is visible bc someone standing next to fence blocks the other light. So, start at 04:30 mark:

Btw, this matches with DJStew’s video too, lights appear in his video only when he’s in right angle to windows, that happens when he moves behind the tree furthest to east.

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According to NBC, FBI Director Christopher Wray testified that “On the morning of the rally, he went back to the campaign site, where he stayed for about an hour, and left that afternoon to buy 50 rounds of ammunition.”

So in any case, he bought from a standard channel for ammo. Those standard channels have VERY few choices and those are virtually all 55 gr either 223 Remington or 5.56 NATO rounds.

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