Audio Analysis Is Most Consistent Two Shooters At Trump Rally

[phasefive]

[phasefive]

@roger-knight

I see you are evaluating multiple shot positions, but we only need two: 3D line from Crooks to either Trumps ear or the bleacher corner (it can’t be both, because they are not in line).

The bleacher drawing you show says 11’2.5" high. I used Dmonks’ data which is closer to 10’-8.5". So who is right?

[phasefive]

I my drawing, an ear shot from Crooks also hits the corner of the bleachers.

[phasefive]

You guys have way more faith in the elevation data than I do. I am used to getting custom field surveys that are inaccurate! The generic data with 12"+ or - is very iffy.

[macd]

Here you go:

https://sci-hub.se/10.23907/2016.030

[howdoiknowthisinfo (howdoiknowthisinfo.com)]

thanks!

I just fetched it from Sci-Hub | An Unusual Feature of Graze Gunshot Wounds. Academic Forensic Pathology, 6(2), 291–300 | 10.23907/2016.030 as the .se-site was geoblocking me!

[cohler]

What’s the uncertainty range of the calculation?

[cohler]

@kwaka

One thing you have missed in your speed of sound calculation is the elevation or altitude at Butler PA at 1043 feet.

Elevation was included. And it makes essentially no difference. The temperature, humidity, and pressure essentially obviate the need for elevation.

[phasefive]

@phasefive

[edited] I have it at 2’9" after adjusting my grades to new topo data.

Correcting my comment.

[roger-knight]

Hi Phase 5,

Looking good, we are soon sync.

However, we should both agree on the same numbers, otherwise this simulation does not look serious if we have two different numbers and get the same result.

I, for the longest time had the stage at 45":

@roger-knight

For ref 690 we took the below picture and looking at the first step that is lower and the last one higher, therefore they compensate each other. An average 6 steps 7.5 Inch is giving us our 45". Is there another method we can be more accurate? I would be glad to change this height, but we need a more accurate source of some kind…

But multiple people challenged this height, namely schroederized who is extremely precise (see his post I mentioned before) he is at 48”, and it was also discussed in this post:

@bumblebeeez

I already posted this.

The risers were most likely 8 inches, it was 6 steps/risers up to the podium, the podium should be about 48" for all calculations. Give or take an inch or two for variance.

We should put Trump as high as possible and the bleachers as low as possible for the benefit of the doubt and making it much harder for somebody to debunk our calculation. Finally, I did that, look at my post:

@roger-knight

In addition, I put the stage from 45 Inches to 48 Inches also giving Crooks the benefit of the doubt.

So, if you would also take 48” for the stage and you can for sure take 2 feet difference from the AGR 6 building to the stage, because we have that well documented. Nobody can challenge that point…

[schroederized]

PhaseFive,
I believe that my drawing of the Speedy Bleachers reflects more accurately the dimensions of the bleachers that were actually there. After noticing the name brand on the bleachers, I researched and found a factory design drawing for that exact 10 row towable bleacher. Since the image I found was simply a jpg, I traced and redrew the end view of the bleacher with CAD, making sure that all dimensions matched and scaled correctly.

In one of Chris’ shows, he revealed that Dmonk’s drawings were based on 8 Big Assumptions. Instead of using reliable, accurate data that was available for the Speedy Bleachers, he used general bleacher codes (per ICC 503.1) and assembly instructions from Belson standard aluminum bleachers, though I can’t imagine why. Please see Assumptions 6, 7 & 8 in the attachment. When I offered Dmonk a .dwg or .dgn file of the bleacher drawing, I received no reply.

You can be the judge as to which better represents the bleachers that were actually there that day.
In response to your remark regarding the elevation data, I agree. Garbage in, garbage out. Without accurate survey data to verify elevations in specific locations, there was no point in me continuing to waste my time.

[vegaspatriot]

That was a great find, BTW, getting the name on the bleachers. “The devil is in the details” is a saying I’ve used over the years whenever giving training on incident investigations. This is a classic example, especially since those working on sound analysis and trajectory are dealing with such minute measures. Kudos!

[greg_n]

@howdoiknowthisinfo

what bullet weights, bullet shapes and muzzle velocities are you using in your model?

@howdoiknowthisinfo The model currently uses the times of the rifle reports, which travel at the speed of sound, so bullet velocity does not affect that. However, it has been pointed out that one or both of the two recorders in front of AGR 6 may have picked up sonic cracks vs. rifle reports, so I’m planning to look into that by making those 10 to 30ms adjustments to the model and seeing how it affects the results.

[tj2mag]

Given how the FBI is sanitizing the crime scene, will even congress get the caliber of the bullet from incidental targets like the shot hose? This is suspicious as all hell, and the FBI is pretty much ensuring a few things:

1. They can say what they like about the evidence they hide.

2. Nobody will be able to gainsay them.

3. The problem is that their credibility is completely shot. Who will believe them?

BTW, interesting video below.

Question: WHY did they assign counter-snipers that day when they’d never done so before, according to the counter-snipers?

Secret Service Agent BUSTED doing WHAT (!) at Trump Rally

[kimtomg]

5.56mm or .223 cal
???

[greg_n]

@macanon

…
Could the kill shot have been from 450 yards and have been suppressed to the degree that it made no sound and shows up on zero microphones?

@macanon I don’t think that counter-snipers use subsonic rounds, due to the diminished performance that would result. They care about accuracy, not sound.

I’ve seen a map showing that local law enforcement had teams on the roofs of the covered bleachers near the pond and tractor pull area. I can’t find that map now, unfortunately. But, anyway, I’m considering those positions as a possible location for Shot 10.

[phasefive]

Sounds like you were more careful in your research.

To answer your question if this is a waste of time. If we keep reminding ourselves these are probability explorations, then no. I only fear someone will take them to be definitive. Maybe we should give percentages of confidence. For example the percentage difference between 11’2.5" and 10’-8.5" is only 4 1/2%. So I think I will start putting an accuracy note as “allow 5% variance in drawing dimensions”. Like a did in this new drawing:

I have 97.5% confidence in my plan dimensions. My confidence is grade elevations is only 75% at best. But certain relative findings may not be subject to much error, for example, I can nail down the vent location and Crooks location and can know that Crooks’ shot will always be about 13" to 14" lower than the 2nd shooter’s at the back of the bleacher, regardless of inaccuracies in grade elevations (when both are shooting for Trump’s ear).

[phasefive]

I took your last drawing and scaled it. Thanks.

[greg_n]

@cmartenson I realize I may get booted off this Topic for saying this, but I believe the audio data that I’ve been analyzing is clearly most consistent with there being only one shooter at the Trump rally. My evidence is explained here:

There was only ONE shooter!

[schroederized]

I’d also like to point out two very important videos that have received little to no attention. Five days ago, Harryx posted a video showing a super high-speed drone (or drones) flying during the rally, as well as during the shooting. I’m sure that everyone has watched the realDJStew videos, but has anyone noticed the high-speed drones? Apparently, so many of us are wrapped up in trajectories and ballistics that these videos have gone unnoticed. When I tried to bring attention to them by creating a new topic, I learned that I was not able to do so because I’m not a paying member. Please take a look at them.
One shooter or two, this clearly indicates that a mission was underway to assassinate President Trump.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoyEbU9BX88
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYuTVJgx0Qw&t=78s