I wish there was an option for “I don’t know” regarding the number of shots taken and the number of shooters. At this point, I just don’t know. I’m inclined to believe there were two shooters. The lack of transparency by the FBI and SS is the most damning evidence of two shooters, IMO.
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Bullets do NOT rise, there is nothing about a bullet that will have it gaining elevation. Simple aerodynamics, you need a component of lift and a rotating object like a bullet does not have any lift components. You’re strictly looking at the offset between the barrel and sights. Yes, the bullet will follow a parabolic DOWNWARD trajectory, but the barrel for all practical purposes is aimed up, relative to the sights.
EDIT: Description of offset Use a fake email address to get to the article.
I don’t recall the offset when sighted in at 25 yds and then POI (point of impact) at 200 yds, but we’re only talking a couple of inches. Below is a chart that shows a rifle sighted in at 50 yds and POI at different distances.
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Draw the line from Trump’s ear through Crooks position and you will end up at the second shooter spot at around 100 yards behind Crooks.
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Put aside whatever you might think of this guy, his explanation of the ladder issue is spot on using the video evidence. It was not pre-staged for Crooks.
This visual by Bell not saying it’s right giving a good perspective on the shooting trajectories especially the first shot. The overhead video of the news helicopters as well couldn’t be faked by FBI custody.
And a final thought, maybe Crooks was already hit and in the few seconds before the thud of the head shot was just firing. The coroner report, just how many bullet wounds were in his body. A 300 win mag that doesn’t hit solid mass would just laser like travel through and not explode. I’ve seen both in hunting where I couldn’t find the entry wound of the deer I hit at 90 yards with a 30-06 however other shots on other game it looked like an explosion. They’re all different with the trauma dr’s that have posted on here describing the dead crooks seemed to say similar things. It’s all over the range of outcomes.
Watch this guy just to get the lay of the layout in 3D
Bullet Trajectories | Near Assassination of ex President Trump - YouTube
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This suggestion is kookoo nuts-ridiculous and I don’t even believe it but the world is more kookoo nuts right now:
white Ghillie suited shooter on the roof within the audio analysis distance from Crooks. He would have had tons of time to slip down the roof to get away before LEO’s got onto the roof.
I’m embarrassed to suggest it because it’s so full frontal black helicopter/tin foil hat but it’s a non-zero possibility. Damn near zero but not zero.
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I posted this theory yesterday, the 2 story building farther behind Crooks, and I think it’s one worthy of exploring. It would be an ideal location:
- It gives the pro good overwatch of Crooks to start firing when Crooks is in position, or abort if Crooks fails to reach the roof and get into position. And he can observe law enforcement, distracted with Crooks.
- Trajectories would be nearly identical.
- There is sufficient concealment, and while the aerial of the tree shows it far away from the building, from the rally it casts nice shadow backdrop. Or that vertical pipe between your circles would be a very good place to hide behind and expose almost no roof signature from the vantage of the rally.
- Easy escape path, after the shooting. Shuffle down and away while everyone is surrounding AGR #6.
- It may help explain the echo time differences, with shots from the 2 story having a “faster echo” to position source #4 since the report is traveling forward/sideways, whereas Crooks report/echo is traveling sideways/backwards 90 degrees to source #4.
- Depending on height of trees, might also be totally obscured from both Hercules teams on the barn rooftops.
Apologies for the poor quality images but they convey the point.
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It’s an interesting, and non-zero, possibility but I do also agree it’s a bit of a stretch. A professional would want ZERO chance of being spotted and high probability of escape. That AGR#6 roof is so low the people on the ground can see Crooks. There’s really nowhere to escape after the shootings, and a high chance someone sees and shoots the pro.
I think a much, much more likely spot is where I’ve posted yesterday and above this post, the taller building about 150 feet behind Crooks. It offers excellent vantage to monitor Crooks, the police, the rally, and gives the same trajectory and a very easy shot at 200 yards, but just a 1/20th second more bullet flight time, barely noticeable.
Agreed: A white outfit would aid in not being seen on the rooftop, like a thin disposable hazmat Tyvex type suit, $15 at Home Depot. Then just peel it off, stuff in a bag with disassembled rifle, and be on your way. The total pandamonium and chaos around Crooks would have been the ultimate distraction for the sniper teams, police, etc. and a shooter farther back could wait until all law enforcement is surrounding AGR#6, and slip away unseen.
Apologies for the poor quality images but they convey the point.
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That building has a facade on the sides facing the street and parking lot. Someone hanging out on the backside of the slope would be completely unobservable except from the air. Certainly can’t be ruled out.
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It is really the perfect hangout. The two-story building in front would occlude the view of the Butler ESU snipers and the trees occlude the view of the SS snipers.
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Acoustics aside, how does the trajectory line up from an elevation perspective? Assuming his line of fire overlaps Crooks’, does the elevation of the potential assassin’s bullet align with Trump’s ear and the top corner of the bleacher railing? All three have to agree, location, acoustics, and trajectory. Right?
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That trajectory/elevation/angle/acoustics question is an excellent question, and above my pay grade. Hopefully people smarter than myself with access to the elevations can answer that.
It might explain the faster “echo” @cmartenson discussed yesterday. I presume the echo captured on Source 4 from a rifle going forward and 90 degrees would arrive marginally faster than Crooks position going rearward and 90 degrees.
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So if we put the shooter at location “SS?” there is a 300 foot difference in position to the stage between SS? and C. But the difference in the other two sides of the triangle to source S4 is only 150 feet or so. So if Crooks took the last five shots and this diagram is correct, you would expect the shot 3 to 4 gap (report, not bullet arrival) to be 125 ms longer at S4 than at the stage, where the delta between two shooters would be maximum.
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After the shooting, he could either look like law enforcement or a rally goer: either option blends.
If he looks like a LE, he just looks busy and nobody is going to stop him.
If he looks like a rally goer, throw on a red hat and join people leaving.
They weren’t really detaining anyone. Just the bike guy, the camera phone guys at AGR, and the shirtless man and his wife near the stage.
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I made a distance error earlier, I stated 150 ft. rather than 150 meters. It appears to me that the distance from the stage to Crooks as reported is 150 meters, and the higher building behind him is about the same distance, maybe slightly shorter, so 300 meters to that 2nd story building rooftop. It’s approximately twice as far, so Crooks is the “midway” point in my diagram.
I don’t understand your triagle measurements and they appear incorrect. E.G. Crooks was 450 ft to Trump and source 2 is much closer to Crooks than Crooks was to Trump. Eyeballing it I’d guess maybe 1/2 that, or 225 feet from Crooks to S4?
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If we need three parameters: elevation, angle, and distance.
What is the likely distance for the first shot from audio analysis?
What is the angle of that shot given it goes by Trump’s ear and hits the railing?
What is the elevation of Trump? Follow that angle and that distance back to the shot.
Does it end up at Crooks? No? Then there is another shooter. Where does it end up? Because that is where the shooter is.
Then you could analyze the audio for the distance of shots 4-8. Shot 6 for the victim’s death should give us more info. Try and trace that shot back to its source. Is that Crooks? Seems likely.
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I just used the measure tool in google maps. Because I did one 3-segment line, the distances shown on it are cumulative. The individual side distances are:
SS? to S4: 435 ft
SS? to C: 300 ft
S4 to C: 285 ft
So Crooks is 300 ft closer to stage than SS?, but only 150 ft closer to S4.
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Perfect, and that eyeballs about right given what we know, that Crooks was firing from ~140 +/- meters or around 450 feet.
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Chris,
Shinesprite4’s numbers should be verified by someone else. I don’t have access to the raw data, but just eyeballing it from a screenshot they look wrong. He also drew the wrong conclusion at the end. The main thing, though, is did he time from when the bullet sound arrived (crack) or report of the gun. The crack can’t be used to triangulate in this manner. Even if the bullets all traveled at the same velocity, they come within a few feet of the stage mike and are never closer than 250 feet to source 4 (supersonic boom travels at speed of sound from nearest approach of bullet-ish).
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