Audio Analysis Is Most Consistent Two Shooters At Trump Rally

[bigtim]

@roger-knight

I have configured everything in CAD. In the beginning I did not include the left bleachers and the fence, but then people drew my attention for them being a possible obstacle, I added them. Please have a look. If you have any further obstacles want to be cleared, I will gladly integrate them into my CAD. However, keep in mind the vent is fairly close to Crooks, so if indeed there are obstacles for the vents, it would also be a problem for Crooks.

Your CAD doe not seem to align with photographic evidence nor other calculations. Remember the building sits in a depression. The vents are about 9’ up, and the ridge peak is about 15 to 17.5’ up (depending on who did the math), so from the ridge the shooter is about 6 to 8.5’ taller than the vents, or maybe double the elevation. That’s a big deal.

Someone else did these calculations putting the vents approximately 9’ high. The bleachers - and humans standing on them waving big signs - seem to impeded with the visual line of sight to Trump. This lines up with the famous video/image of Trump speaking and AGR#6 in the background. There’s 1 window (“window 3”) barely visible but mostly obscured and the vents would not have a significantly better “view” from my assessment. Extrapolating the crowd beyond the still image to our viewers right, crowd only gets taller, it obscures all the windows and vents to the right of our view (“windows 2 and 1” and corresponding vents). I just do not see a good shooting lane at Trump from that area.

In this image, we can plainly see Crooks has a excellent unobstructed shooting lane. We can barely see the window and there is no clear shooting lane. By extension, the vents just a couple feet higher, likewise have no good shooting lane FROM THIS IMAGE. I acknowledge it’s not a perfect image showing the perfect angle but it’s pretty close …

From this and other pictures, I’d guess the fence is approximately 6 to 7 feet tall, with Crooks being 6’4" and possible standing in a depression or factoring depth perception. So the vents, around 9’ high, slightly above the windows would seemingly clear the fence, so that obstacle can likely be omitted, however.

[roger-knight]

I can already debunk one of your measurements, namely 51 feet and 7”, because the vent is exactly at 25 panels (2 feet standard panels). So, the correct dimension would be 50 feet.

I will get back to you on this topic.

[macd]

If my understanding is correct, James Copenhaver was standing up in the bleachers southeast of Trump and was hit by a bullet in his arm and abdomen. So one of the bullets had a clear path from the shooter to a point in space which would be about two feet directly below the point from which the photo was taken (eye level).

With all the modelling that has been done, can someone reproduce the view toward the AGR complex from a point two feet below the view in this photo? If one could do this, and adjust all the other potential obstacles accordingly, one would be able to determine - for at least one of the bullets - which shooting lanes were open and which were not.

[phasefive]

[offtheback]

@kincses-zsolt

Just so I understand, what time stamped segments of the data are you using to correlate with?

[kwaka]

One thing that does stand out as unusual is how the orange temporary safety fence was put up around the AC unit in the days after the event. It is an occupational health and safety message that this unit has been damaged. Or maybe someone wants to avoid closer inspection of this unit?

The hole in the wall just to the right of this unit is smaller, but permanently open.

[bumblebeeez]

That fence is no more than 6 feet tall and the chain link across it dips lower than that because it was taken off the lead wire. In some places the chain link is bent and tugged down.

[pk2019]

@offtheback

Maybe all I am most interested in is .1 seconds after a few of the correlation peaks, including the first autocorrelation one as a baseline.

Will do that too, but on program level. In the meantime I’ve reduced the previously huge pdfs and also found a way how to also provide audio data together with r an p-values.

Below you’ll find new pdfs for stream 1, still problematic because the plot symbols remain too large. Within the lattice graphics system I’ve still found no way to reduce their size and thus ease oversight, except by decimating the data points, say every 3rd. But I can generate,e.g., only the first second after the first shot.
1382_202407131806_Unit5-0.mp4.stream-1.aac.shot-1-sample.pdf (70.0 KB)
1382_202407131806_Unit5-0.mp4.stream-1.aac.shot-1-corr.pdf (3.6 MB)

[vegaspatriot]

Of I had to guess, it’s simply due diligence to put a warning up for people who want to get on the roof and see for themself…who might fall and try to sue AGR. That orange barricade fence is up around all of the HVAC and other equipment, at least on the west side. It’s a form of “No Tresspassing” sign, likely put up for insurance purposes, since their property is not fenced in.

[daniloraf]

Trailer voice from the 90’s…
THIS SUMMER…BULLETS WILL GO DOWN… THEN GO UP AGAIN! BUT WAIT… THERE’S NEW ELEVATION DATA AND THE MAN IN THE HIGH ROOF AIN’T TAKING IT

@howdoiknowthisinfo

the only thing that could change my mind about the high roof as being the shooting location is the angle/heading/bearing of the bullet at Trump’s position.

What about the bleacher? High Roof needs to match Trump AND Bleacher AND Bullet Drop. If you consider Trump alone, the angle for instance could be any angle you choose from any of the places, you would still get a hit. I’d forget about Trump’s nose bearing and focus on the elevations of the scenario, for your sanity. The mystery could lie elsewhere, on different questions, such as WHY didn’t Crooks go for HighRoof, and why we keep getting jolted back to that Vent and a 2nd shooter because of… you know why, I believe. That said, I will plot your high roof for common 5.56 with the new elevation data from Paramount Tactical, Google and Bleachers.

Here you go… for common 5.56 55 grains ammo, the bullet would hit 1.85 feet below the the estimated impact. I have to say… it’s not bad, not bad at all, considering the controversy around elevations. BUT, the audio crack-thump timing still doesn’t match. Also, I’m very disappointed that Paramount Tactical didn’t show that bleacher elevation on their video.
The Excel spreadsheet with HighRoof is here.

As a curiosity, this is around where the bullet would hit the ground 410 yards away at that angle of -1,3678 degrees (no obstacles in it’s way, of course). If I’m not mistaken, that’s close to the building assigned to FOP, a LE union of sorts.

[roger-knight]

@bigtim:
May I ask you, the way I explained to daniloraf, to please indicate the reference points you are doubting in the below drawing? I would be glad to provide you the supporting document.

[howdoiknowthisinfo (howdoiknowthisinfo.com)]

@daniloraf

As a curiosity, this is around where the bullet would hit the ground 410 yards away at that angle of -1,3678 degrees (no obstacles in it’s way, of course). If I’m not mistaken, that’s close to the building assigned to FOP, a LE union of sorts.

yes, that is right.
when @rough_country_gypsy did his drone survey, I asked him to inspect that building to see for repaired or renewed windows or doors or similar as they may have taken some bullets from coming in from the AGR site, but he was chased away before any inspection could happen…

if you look at your line, you will see that it 1. grazes Trump’s ear, 2. interacts with the bleachers’ railing and then 3. plants itself in the JCB beam.

if you use the above picture as ground overlay you will see that your line will traverse through the JCB hydraulic lift at the left in this picture.

as Mike Bell showed in one of his earlier video’s on the Trump shooting, you will see that the hydraulic beam was hit by the first bullet, and he also aligns his first shot from “somewhere” on the AGR site and uses the JCB hydraulic lift at the receiving end of the 1st shot…

[kincses-zsolt]

Let me backtrack my operations…

I have converted the dashcam footage into 3 audio files. (Actually I used the online converter, because ffmpeg does not run in my notebook.)

ffmpeg -i 1382_202407131806_Unit5-0.mp4 -vn -map 0:a:0 -ss 00:04:55 -t 00:00:10 stream-1.aac
ffmpeg -i 1382_202407131806_Unit5-0.mp4 -vn -map 0:a:1 -ss 00:04:55 -t 00:00:10 stream-2.aac
ffmpeg -i 1382_202407131806_Unit5-0.mp4 -vn -map 0:a:2 -ss 00:04:55 -t 00:00:10 stream-3.aac

Then I exported the audio data into csv files and imported into libre office, skipped almost 2 seconds at the beginning and at the end. So the convolution arrea is “$A$80000:$C$395000” and the offset runs from -1000 to +1000.
The sample rate is 48000, so the convolution shift is about 0.02 seconds.

I was surprised to see that periodicity.

(Sorry, I cannot quote the code correctly.)

Maybe I should have divided the sum. (But with what? I guess with the 0 offset correlation sum.)

private void correlate( int chA, int chB )

{
  int offset, indexA, indexB;
  long corr = 0;
  string name;
  TextWriter tw;
  //
  name = (chA+1).ToString() + (chB+1).ToString() + ".csv";
  Console.Write( "{0}", name );
  tw = File.CreateText( name );
  for ( offset = -1000; offset < +1000; ++offset )
  {
    corr = 0;
    for ( indexA = 80000; indexA <= 395000; ++indexA )
    {
      indexB = indexA + offset;
      corr += array[indexA,chA] * array[indexB,chB];
    }
    tw.Write( "{0};", offset );
    tw.Write( "{0};", corr );
    tw.WriteLine();
  }
  Console.WriteLine();
  tw.Close();
  tw.Dispose();
  tw = null;
}

[kincses-zsolt]

It was this, shifted by from -1000 to +1000 samples.

Let me know if you need some special region.

[howdoiknowthisinfo (howdoiknowthisinfo.com)]

@daniloraf

WHY didn’t Crooks go for HighRoof

I rarely go into “why” questions because I avoid speculation by default, but here we go

the scenario I elaborated on earlier goes like this:

• crooks had done some preparations in advance (visiting the range, preparing his gun, etc). we have no idea what zero he used and which triggering techniques he practiced
• I have no idea who contacted him, but crooks had agreed on a certain schedule that required him to be in position on that precise location on the roof of AGR building 6 around 6:10pm, such that the action could start at exactly 6:11:33pm
• the video of James Copenhaver shows that crooks was running over the roofs, and from my view, he was running because he was running late for the appointment!
• at exactly 18:11:33pm, the first 3 shots were fired from the roof of the highest AGR building behind crooks by a professional sniper using a semi-automatic suppressed sniper rifle with hypersonic ammunition with a serious caliber and a bag to catch the ejected brass, i.e., NOT an AR-15-style rifle with its ammunition.
• immediately after these 3 first shots, the next 5 shots were registered, and here we have a few options:

1. these 5 shots were fired from the same high roof behind crooks. This shooter would have needed to use another rifle, as a typical sniper rifle does not fire 5 rounds per second, so, here an AR-15-style rifle could have been used, also with a bag to catch the ejected brass
2. these 5 shots were fired by crooks, but this requires some comments:
   a. either the DPMS A-15 was modified such that it could fire in full auto
   b. crooks used the technique called the “jitter finger”, which is a technique used by gamers to ram a keyboard key or a mouse button as fast as possible, and it has been demonstrated that this technique also fires a semi-automatic rifle so fast that it looks full-auto. this technique exists and works, but requires serious practice and skill, and it does not enable aiming precisely!

it seems highly unlikely to me that someone who has just been chased by the police, is being shouted at by the public, and is lying on a warm roof, can fire very accurately at say 100 yards with both full-auto and the jitter-finger technique…

in either case, crooks would have only loaded 5 cartridges in the rifle’s magazine, as the audio proves that 5 shots were fired rapidly, then there was a pause of about a second, then crooks took bullet 9, and about 10 seconds later, the 10th bullet finished him off.

from my point, bullets 9 and 10 were fired by the same SWAT officer who was walking on the green when the first shots were fired.
this SWAT officer took aim at crooks on the roof of AGR building 6 and fired just after the 5 shots. he then checked through his scope whether he had taken the gunman on the roof out, and as he was still alive, he finished him off with the 10th shot from his rifle.

this means that, from my view, the barn snipers did not injure or kill crooks!

so, the answer to your question about why crooks did not go for the higher roof is simple: crooks was used as a puppet who got sacrificed such that the real shooter could walk away from the scene unnoticed…

[roger-knight]

Maybe it is not as complicated as you think? Somebody simply has to find out who “Redcap guy" is and ask him for his original video? He has the key to the entire case. Assuming he is a Trump supporter (and not Ray Epps), I am sure he will be willing to share this information with us……

[kincses-zsolt]

@howdoiknowthisinfo

• I have no idea who contacted him, but crooks had agreed on a certain schedule that required him to be in position on that precise location on the roof of AGR building 6 around 6:10pm, such that the action could start at exactly 6:11:33pm
• the video of James Copenhaver shows that crooks was running over the roofs, and from my view, he was running because he was running late for the appointment!
• at exactly 18:11:33pm, the first 3 shots were fired from the roof of the highest AGR building behind crooks by a professional sniper using a semi-automatic suppressed sniper rifle with hypersonic ammunition with a serious caliber and a bag to catch the ejected brass

• Local officers registered him an hour before. Due to Mr. Trump’s one hour delay.
• Nobody checked the higher roof. Why should they do that?

(Let me tell you a story. The central heating was reduced in every january because of examination season. I had to work on my topic, my teacher lent me an electric heater. He strongly asked me to unplug it from the wall socket when I go home. Because in case of fire the investigation would find it, no matter if it caused the fire or not. They find something reasonable and stop going on. - Obviously this is the pattern here, too.)

[mtorrance]

The first round hit Trump then the rail of the bleachers and disintegrated. Shot two hit Dutch and the lift.

[pk2019]

@kincses-zsolt

It was this, shifted by from -1000 to +1000 samples.

And what was the shift when the correlation max’ed? 500 samples?

[rough_country_gypsy]

I went back to AGR and Farm Show property early this morning for @pk2019 & @roger-knight. I thought things were going to go splendidly, but I hit a snafu. The AGR property is no longer guarded. However, they re-blacktopped all of the parking lots and have them blocked off. Whitestown Road is set to be closed this week.

The Farm Show property is still being patrolled, but I arrived before daylight to get the pole-to-barn measurements for @pk2019 which are as follows.

Pole Wires to North Barn = 72’

Pole Wires to Middle Barn = 43’

Pole Wires to South Barn = 32’

And then here’s where I ran into trouble. Once daylight, I got my drone up to measure the height of the wires and they were 40’. As soon as I took this measurement, the drone was jammed and had to land. (1st time I’ve ever experienced this). I fried two batteries trying to get the drone back up… to no avail. Each battery typically lasts 45 minutes. After the initial jam, I couldn’t get the drone up any higher than 6’. It said the restriction was coming from the airport to the south of the Farm Show property, but I couldn’t fly anywhere and this is the same area that I droned from previously. I may go back again and try from North of the AGR building. It’s a personal challenge now. Lol!! I need to recharge my batteries first.