a couple of days ago, you showed a formula for the average speed for trajectory intervals of equal length. I cannot seem to find that formula again. could you copy/paste it once more?
many thanks!
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Exactly great question I have also raised. If youâre standing in a DARK UNLIGHTED ROOM, and want to be concealed, during DAYLIGHT with a BIG OPEN WINDOW, you would NOT WANT NOR NEED A HEADLAMP to do this alleged window removal project.
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There are hundreds of pixelizations and glitches in these images. Add that to reflections, and broken lapses in frame rates, etc. Conclusions youâre drawing are unsupported by real world evidence. Theyâre just pixels, compressed, uploaded, from already low quality source video. You have oddly glommed onto ones that fit your easily disproven narrative.
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Too big, cumbersome, and slow for this type of a secretive operation. There are some areas in which humans excel, some in which machines excel. When I was deployed on my 4th tour, we had remove belt fed guns on top of our MRAPs. That was about 15 years ago. So yes that tech is available, far more advanced today.
But for a secretive operation where human engagement and precision is needed, decision making not relayed but on the spot, all perception senses employed, and the ability to rapidly escape undetected, is paramount then a remote gun would not work. Too much setup and tear down necessary, far to easy to be caught by someone not âread inâ to the operation.
I donât think a remote gun was used in the Trump attempt.
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me too do not think this sort of equipment was used, but he asked me whether such devices exist, and as they do, I provided him with the example of these devices and added the sidemark that it is impossible that this sort of things has been used, heâŠ
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A human sniper could far more easily climb into a small space with a low ceiling and lay prone. Snipers are rigorously trained to sit motionless in hostile climate environments for DAYS without detection. They often urinate on themselves while laying motionless. That ceiling area provides at least a few feet of clearance, more than enough for a human to crawl into and lay in wait, even in high temps. He could also wear a cooling vest (circulating or filled with cooled gel) to keep body temp lower.
The logistics of setting up and the height requirements of a gun mounted on a stabilizing tripod would be 10x or more difficulty. Plus a person OUTSIDE would not know nor have perception of the shooting area. Then thereâs taking it down, and all manner of questions asked if someone unaffiliated saw this equipment during transport to and from, etc. And also, checking this out of arms room inventory would be yet another big red flag. It would just be much more difficult in my view.
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Derivation:
average velocity = total pathlengt / total time
segment time = segment length / velocity at that segment
It reduces to sum multiplicative inverses when we use same length semgments. These segments must be so small the velocity change within to be negligible. (If not small enough, make them smaller.)
v~ = N/(â(1/v))
- Divide the total lengt into N segments. (I used 2 and half million.)
- Calculate the speed at each segments (by polinomial).
- Take 1/v, add tem up.
- Divide N by the sum.
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Do you grasp the concept that the Stewart video is taken from many angles laterally and height as he frantically points the camera all over the building. The âmovementâ you claim in the subject photos, is a still frame window but MOVEMENT of the person taking the video, giving it the OBVIOUS ILLUSION of window movement.
We can clearly see the window is fixed in place and not moving, not opening, nor being removed due to there being tape around the perimeter and window reflections. It is there in every single picture youâve posted. Furthermore, there is simply insufficient TIME for someone to remove the window, fire a rifle at a distant target with aimed precision, and replace the window, undetected, even with help. Furthermore, the Stewart videos are helpful but of a low pixel quality. Just look at these images. Thereâs nary a straight line and all manner of broken planes and pixelization.
The excellent images provided generously by @rough_country_gypsy are taken with high quality static video/photo equipment from a stationary drone, at a much closer and focused position.
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While I do find the entire 3 extra shell casings suspect, as long as they were to his right side and 120 degrees forward, lateral, or rearward thereâs not much inconsistent about that from an AR15.
As for the ones on the opposite downward slow side, I could visualize them hitting the flat cap, and carrying forward movement and bouncing over to the opposite side. They are just hollow pieces of brass being thrown with some spin and authority, bouncing off a steel roof which probably has some spring (as opposed to landing in mud or sand where they would not bounce or travel).
This could be replicated pretty easily, with just some suspended sheet metal and throwing brass casings to observe behaviors.
Any brass to his left to too far away, of course would be highly suspect.
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I have found these:
my program outputs this sort of stuff:
the range and vertical drop and windage inches are basically (x,y,z)-like offsets which I translate in (lon, lat, alt)-coordinates in my kml files
so, I will add the average velocity N/sum(1/v) for each line.
if you provide me with the coordinates of the different microphones you want to see whatever formula calculated for, I can easily add it and enumerate it for the various ballistic parametersâŠ
Setting zero at 300 yds is kind of silly for such a slow moving heavy bullet. Using 100 yd zero, will result in +1.5" at 50 yds. 75 yds will be less than 1.5", not 7". As Sgt correctly pointed out, there will be two zeros, one on the way up (due to offset angle), second on the way down. Subsonic 300/308 high grain bullets are at best a 200 yd bullet. I have my 300 BO zeroed at 50 yds. 100 yds is still close enough to not worry about POI. I havenât even attempted shooting out to 200 yds with 300BO, it will have a significant amount of drop.
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Nearly all the brass ends up left of and well forward of the muzzle on the line of fire.
Look carefully at the full size image again
Interesting test. A lot of the shots look quite a bit like shot 4 at first glance and yet the correlation isnât that high.
He should throw that gun away and buy an old POS rifle like Crooksâ and some Federal ammo, that will make exactly the same report every time.
So, controlled test doesnât correlate well.
Audio source 4 correlates horribly between shots, particularly between shots 1-3 an 4-8.
Police cruiser channel two wonât correlate with channels 1 and 3.
But each of channels 1-3 in police cruiser has basically perfect correlation where echoes donât overlap reports, and near perfect where they do.
Seems normal.
I concur. Plus, we donât know the âexactâ position of the rifleâs receiver in relation to the ridge cap. I was going to test this (shooting from a metal peaked roof with an AR) but there are so many variables from AR to AR it most likely would prove nothing. 
I think we can make an educated guess. His target is almost level, a bit lower than him. Heâs laying on a slight incline. He had to clear the ridgecap of course. And a rational person would not go higher than necessary. So as I mentioned in another post, not much more than his rifle barrel likely above the ridgecap. That would expose his barrel, optic, upper 10% of his rifle including stock, shoulders, and everything above his nose.
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A rational person wouldnât have been on the roof in the first place let alone run the entire length of the building from North to South so everyone could see and hear him. Iâm betting he was higher on the ridge cap than most people suspect for the first 3 shots.
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Evil, suicidal persons can still act in rational ways in other aspects.
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@cohler @greg_n @kincses-zsolt @pk2019 @offtheback (and everybody who has looked into the audio analyses)
ok.
can we make this concrete?
I have an application that calculates the ballistic path of a bullet under various conditions that produces something like this (for various zero distances, wind speeds, bullet weights and shapes, drag coefficients and initial muzzle velocities):
given the following points of interest:
- crooks firing at Trump
- realDjStew records the shots from his position
- Trump on the podium
- microphone in front of Trump
suppose we have the (lon, lat, alt) coordinates for each of these points
suppose we have calculated the average velocity based on @kincses-zsoltâs formula (average velocity = N/sum(1/v_i)) for each point on the orange line, including the intersection of the perpendicular lines on the orange line from realDjStew and the microphone
letâs call the intersection of the line from realDjStew with the orange line CR and the intersection with the line from the microphone CM
can you tell me what exactly i need to calculate and add to these tables to facilitate your analysis ?
many thanks!
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Fundamentally there is one huge underlying problem with the trajectory analyses:
there is only the first shot that hits Trumps ear and (supposably) the corner of the bleacher to back trace.
FACT All the remanning 7 shots have either only a end impact point or zero info. Meaning the arc of origination is huge and shot origin point is subject to guess work.
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