Bad News, The Problems Are Bigger Than Trump

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Originally published at: https://peakprosperity.com/bad-news-the-problems-are-bigger-than-trump/

As part of Dave Collum’s gift to humanity, a.k.a. The Year In Review, we sat down for a podcast. Wow, what a conversation it was! We dove deep into his 2024 Year In Review, and we went farther still. After 2.5 hours you’d think we’d have trampled old ground 3x and run out of things to discuss. Nope, and nope. Neither happened. We could have gone on 2x longer still and been on fresh ground.

Dave’s insights are a mix of humor, sharp analysis, and a bit of a reality check on the state of the world. We covered everything from economic valuations to the social dynamics at play in today’s society. It’s a wild ride, and if you haven’t read his review, then consider this podcast the Bon Mot that will whet your appetite. When you do read the YIR, be sure to score yourself on Collum’s Conspiracy Test to get your score. Mine was 42.

Here’s one Dave’s bottom line(s): The world’s financial markets are priced at levels that have never, ever, not once, been a good starting point for future returns. At best, we’re in for flat returns for possibly decades. Dave’s ultra-bear is out of hiding and he thinks we’re in for 30-50 years of miserable returns. Can you hang on for that long to get back to even? No? Then you’d better have a plan.

How did we get here? The Federal Reserve and other central banks’ constant interventions to keep everything moving ‘up and to the right’ coupled with investors turning into speculators along the way and throwing out all accumulated market wisdom. Buffet? A cranky old fool who ‘doesn’t get it’ anymore. Jesse Livermore; who’s that? As Dave said in his YIR:

What moves these markets? The current markets are like toddlers playing soccer. They are all chasing the same ball. It is all offense, no defense, and the guy in the goal isn’t even paying attention.

None of this happened or is happening in a vacuum. Broken politics, fractured social norms, and institutionalized corruption are all swirling the bowl as we careen through the fourth turning. Mix it all up and we’ll be lucky if a serious market correction is all that results. At worst, Dave supposes, there will be a nuclear war.

Will the culprits of all this corruption and decay ever be held accountable? Maybe. But if not, can anything really ever get better? Probably not. Will Trump be able to save the day with his appointments? Hopefully, but it’s a tall order, to be sure.

Key Data

  • The S&P 500’s price-to-book ratio is at an all-time high, surpassing even the peaks of 2000 and 1929.
  • Current market valuations are approximately 200% above historical averages, implying a fall of -66% just to get to ‘fair value.’
  • Team Biden cooked the books on jobs and inflation. Did they cook the oil data too?

Predictions

  • Dave predicts a 40-year bear market, with the potential for significant market corrections. As in -60% to -90%.
  • He suggests it could take 45 years to grow out of the current valuation bubble if GDP grows at historical rates.

Implications

  • Investors should prepare for lower returns and potential market corrections.
  • The current economic environment may not be favorable for young investors looking to enter the market.
  • Trump may wish to ‘clean house’ on all the foul Biden economic data up front, so the next few months could be bumpy!

Social Dynamics and Trust in Institutions

We also touched on the social dynamics, particularly the erosion of trust in institutions like the Fed and the biomedical community. Dave shared his views on how the Fed’s policies have favored older generations at the expense of younger ones, and how this has led to a lack of trust among the populace. We discussed the impact of COVID-19 and the response from authorities, which has further fueled skepticism.

Recommendations

  • Individuals should critically evaluate information from institutions and seek diverse perspectives.
  • Consider diversifying investments to hedge against potential market downturns.

This conversation with Dave was a reminder of the complexities and challenges we face, both economically and socially. It’s crucial to stay informed and engaged as we navigate these turbulent times.

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Dave,

I know I/the tribe have no right to it, but please write part III for us.

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I vote this my number 1 favorite interview of 2024! I almost past it by, due to the length but am thankful I didn’t. It’s very fast-moving, many topics covered, thanks @cmartenson .

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Maybe we should think of market rises as inversions of wealth. The more the market rises the more our standard of living loses.

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Great interview, thank you both! Dave’s insight and humor made the 2.5 hours seem like it was way too short :slight_smile:

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I think cellphones in schools aren’t leaving anytime soon. From teachers I’ve spoken to (who are well-aware of the problem), it’s the parents who ARE the issue. They want constant contact with their children in this fear-porn world. As Dave said, some younger parents have grown up with phones in their hands and focused only on the good aspects of it (not to mention these kids have no independence which will come out dangerously in the future). Most latch-key kids no longer have a home phone where they can call out or parents can call in, so cellphones have become that “safety” tool.

I spoke to a friend today who works with elementary age kids, but was at a workshop at an area high school. She opted to use the general Girls restroom and said while awaiting an empty stall (she had to wait in line for 4 stalls), girls would leave (no flushing toilet sound) holding their phones in their hands. Unsure if they’re on social media or email, but even the bathroom space has become “quiet time” for using cellphones.

Last anecdote: our 13-yo homeschooler wants nothing more than to have a phone ‘keep up with the Jones’. Even though we also have friends whose kids do not, it’s the “prize” she desires. It’s hard to see the addiction (and explain it to them as such, not to mention the monthly cost) and try to persuade your child that you’re on their team and not giving them what they want. Maybe I need to use Shrier’s idea of a 3-month road trip for this purpose…

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Great interview. Dave’s humor is wonderful. Insightful comments on multiple topics. Two hours went by like no time at all.
Thanks.
JT

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You guys touch on Climate Change and energy. Well here’s a ZH article explaining why Wind and Solar doesn’t work for the Industrial Society. Europe is now living thru that mistake.

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I enjoyed the conversation. I think it’s unique how you navigate the so-called conspiracy theories with discernment unlike those who may be doing honest journalism but stay clear of these theories out of a misguided sense of what serious journalism is -I guess that’s the reason- and unlike those who’ll just peddle whatever for views, not to mention the useless legacy media.
For example, when I saw the code words used in the podesta files and knowing the wikileaks track record for veracity I had no doubt pizzagate was real, as crazy as it sounds.

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Wow! High praise! Many thanks.

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All I can say is, if the DNC Deep-Staters got the likes of Yours Truly voting for Trump and a straight Republican ticket, their only chance of winning from here on out is a literal coup with tanks and troops in the streets. And that doesn’t seem likely, because I don’t think the military would go along with it, or at least it would probably fracture the military along with the rest of society.

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This is an interesting video on goings on in china. The shit storm is building worldwide.

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Chris,

Thank you for another excellent interview/podcast of 12-27-2024 titled: “Bad News, The Problems Are Bigger Than Trump” – so far I am only up to minute 44:00 – here are some initial observations. Use or lose as you see fit. :blush:

  • Crack-up boom – how and when will the fiat-USD-Ponzi unwind re. an Austrian economic crack-up boom scenario – is the question that is confounding all sound-money theorists. This time might be different perhaps with the specter of technocratic implementation (by force if necessary) of full-spectrum-dominance over the relevant populations.
  • Decades of lurking inflation – in view of practical economic theory grounded in reality – it can be seen that decades of consumer price inflation has been cloaked by the powers-at-be (with loose monetary and fiscal policies) and that monetary inflation has manifested largely as financial asset price inflation (the FED sponsored everything/always-up propped-up markets). The emergence finally of goods/services price inflation is the system perhaps breaking and cracking-up under the pressure the current hyper-ACCELLERATION of monetary inflation (i.e. FED money-printing) knock-on effects that cannot be hidden.
  • 2019 REPO CRISIS: Here is a link (@Seeking Alpha) Quantitative Monetization, The Silence Of The Lambs, And The Land Of The Black Gold | Seeking Alpha – to a speculative piece titled: “Quantitative Monetization, The Silence Of The Lambs, And The Land Of The Black Gold” - that was written contemporaneously about the REPO CRISIS – that ultimately contributed to me being blocked by the editorial review committee from writing articles at SA (my writings did NOT fit with SA’s business model that was apparently required to cater to the mainstream Wall Street investment fictions and driving SA membership and sponsorship).
  • Covid-plandemic: In addition to starting the process of a soft-genocidal-depopulation initiative – was a “psywar” that was never intended to fool most of the public – but actually the reverse – the too-stupid-to-be-stupid State sponsored official narratives and some of the complementary alternative controlled opposition counter-narratives (e.g. cone snail or snake venom concepts and/or viruses do not exist etc.) were design to cause and reinforce multiplex mass-formations – that could be manipulated to cause division, chaos and cloak real DS agendas (I think).

JP

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P/B is high b/c as tech make up as greater (weighted) percentage of shares, their intangibles become more skewed. Intangibles tend to be higher for tech, as their assigned value to the unquantifiable algorithm of (for instance) Google’s search feature or Nvidia’s AI feature is what their accountants value the intangible as. Much different than accounting for drill rigs or cereals or cars, with little variance to brand intangibles.

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So, I’m rocking along well into listening to 2 of my favorite commentators and then I hear this: If you want to convince someone, then you make sure the story teller is a teen age girl, i.e. the Kuwait incubator story to Congress. My first thought was the Salem witch hunt/burnings. The whole Salem witch story started with teenage girls!

Me too on Elon Musk; I do not quite trust him.

I like Trump’s new inner circle, for sure. Way better than the family. Although that lady for Chief of Staff is curious to me. I was hoping against hope that Pres. Trump would nominate RFK, Jr… I did not trust Trump would keep his word, and was pleasantly surprised it was the HHS nomination! Very happy to hear he has the votes to get confirmed! How could you not confirm RFK, Jr.? He’s absolutely brilliant and well educated on the subject of human health and environmental pollutants.

Enjoyed this one. Can’t wait for part 2.

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Me too. I don’t go much over an hour, but enjoyed every bit of this one.

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You discussed whether TPTB overplayed their hand with Covid. I’d say they played it exactly right if they were told two things starting from zero in the fall of 2019 or earlier: 1) Covid will be deadly (maybe 10-15% CFR, or worse), AND 2) the vaxx will literally be “safe and effective.” Neither of those things were even close to being true, so they look like they blew the whole thing out of perspective.

I’m of the opinion that Covid was an op planned in advance and the planners told the insiders to proceed as if the two conditions above were about to unfold. The planners had to be extremely disappointed their pandemic wasn’t way more deadly and their “cure” wasn’t way more safe and effective.

Don’t worry. Their next pandemic will be much more deadly. Bill Gates said so in an interview.

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Elawn and Ramaswampy are frauds ffs

The examples of their perfidy are legion for those willing to look.

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I can relate. When I see a two-hour-plus interview, my automatic response is usually, “Yeah, I’ll skip that one.” But I devoured every minute of this one. And I must say I don’t appreciate the cult-like behavior today’s transgender movement is promoting to children. The lesbian/ gay rights movement of the eighties and nineties did not try to turn kids who were questioning their sexual orientation against their parents, despite the fact that quite a few parents were throwing their gay and lesbian kids out onto the streets to fend for themselves after these kids came out of the closet.

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Dave brought up the subject of Martin Armstrong’s computer. Armstrong says he programmed the computer for real AI for trading and forecast. He has said he fed it all the information of the past regarding trading, history and geopolitics. For the longest time, I sided with Dave’s view that the computer doesn’t exist and Armstrong just creates SWAG’S (scientific wild ass guesses).

But then you look back at all that he said the computer predicted such as the 1987 stock market crash, S&L crisis and most recently the civil war that broke out in Ukraine. In 2011 he warned attendees at his World Economic Conference that war would breakout in Ukraine in 2014, based on his computer’s prediction. Three years later and bam a civil war erupted in Ukraine. So yeah, I was skeptical but then looking at the stuff he says in advance that his computer said would happen, just makes me wonder if Armstrong and his computer are legit after all.

The US Gov’t wanted his source code and he refused which resulted in the FBI seizing his computer and he being thrown in jail for comtempt of court.

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